Champion Hurdle 2015

Frankel said:
Yes they should be making it a real test with the TNO. Faugheen probably similar over this trip if he is going to beat a speed horse.
Last year if memory serves TNO took it up some way out. Tent being Tent didn't find much, but the ground was testing that day.
Irving is that speed horse who if steps up to the plate 'could' take it. However at this stage I'm not sure how much grit Irving has.
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Wouldn't be so sure Irving is a 'speed horse', either. Certainly didn't look it in the Supreme, or the Fighting Fifth latest.
MTOY might not have looked all that against TNO at Kempton, but he certainly impressed his jockey, which probably speaks volumes about his actual readiness.
 
reet hard said:
Wouldn't be so sure Irving is a 'speed horse', either. Certainly didn't look it in the Supreme, or the Fighting Fifth latest.
MTOY might not have looked all that against TNO at Kempton, but he certainly impressed his jockey, which probably speaks volumes about his actual readiness.
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I'm certainly not touting him as a Champion horse. Though his Supreme flop had a valid excuse did it not? Scoped dirty I think.
Think he is most likely going to be a flat track horse. Though could be doing him a disservice at this early stage.

As for Tent, he travelled as well as he usually does to put it just down to fitness.
 
On all known form, he should be clear favourite; that he's almost twice the price of TNO borders on insanity.
 
As much as I fancy Faugheen I wouldn't argue if he was Fav should certainly be shorter than TNO.......a combination of it being regarded as a win by default back in March combined with Hurricane Fly beating him sort of backing him up is responsible for the drift.

As far as TNO goes he's not the first or last who's been slashed by the bookies to a false price after winning one of these Mickey Mouse trials........Hope Nicky takes him on in the International he'll not be as short after that
 
EC1 said:
of course he plodded through to win at CH..have you seen how fast they went early in that race?..it was a destroying pace set by intersky falcon...i know how fast they went early..the actual time..not some guess from watching...there is no way that anything but a plodder would have won that CH..even Celestial Halo would have won that race.:)
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The 'guessers' who watched that race would have seen that the searing pace set by Intersky Falcon was largely ignored by the rest of the field, and would have judged the race from the whole picture, rather than slavish adherence to the stopwatch.
Just saying, like.:)
 
reet hard said:
The 'guessers' who watched that race would have seen that the searing pace set by Intersky Falcon was largely ignored by the rest of the field, and would have judged the race from the whole picture, rather than slavish adherence to the stopwatch.
Just saying, like.:)
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the guessers should know though that the whole field was going the same speed as IF though

this theory that if a horse is 10 clear its going a lot faster than the rest of the field is flawed thinking...and fools many guessers when watching a race

all the times i've put up..are for the winners..not the leaders

IF used a bit more energy to get his lead..then the whole field go the same speed..if they don't..then the leader gets progressively further and further ahead...thats not how races are run

don't forget ..these horses are running at a certain mph above even pace for a long way in these situations..so the further they go..the more those mph's above par take their toll..its not like its a 5f race where sometimes you can out run a field even after setting strong fractions

don't forget also that even pace isn't a breeze in the park..its a decent pace..so to run well above that by some way early will wipe you out over 2 miles...or wipe a whole field out

check out some athletics times and see the small amount of speed above even pace that can seriously damage your final time...then translate that to running a race where you get the pace wrong by a third of a furlong at half way

like i said..if people think IF and horses that generally lead fast are going a lot faster than the rest of the field in mph..then i'll leave them with that understanding..there is nothing i can say will change mindsets

i don't really care tbh whether people think RB is the greatest CH winner or the worst....but any argument against mine wants to be based on reality..not an engrained ignorance of what happens in a race.

i've spent enough time on this..to be fair on a racing forum with all the experts on here..some one else should be pointing these things out as well..it appears to me no one seems to understand even the basics of how races are run..or are happy to just let someone else waste his time trying to get it across

people have engrained views re horse racing..and will ignore even the most obvious arguments to continue with how they think the game works..no one ever seems to want to learn anything or gain knowledge..its..well i have this type of thinking..and am not changing it for anyone.

i don't mind that..but at least back up this thinking with something that at least does approach some type of logic..not some dyed in the wool 70's betting shop theories passed down by old lads in flat caps....time is only important in jail mentality etc.
 
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reet hard said:
On all known form, he should be clear favourite; that he's almost twice the price of TNO borders on insanity.
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Feels like going round in circles but the known form is that jezki beat tno by just over two lengths aft tno was hampered in a way that could feasible have left him trailing in. How many times have we seen horses not even slightly recover from an incident like that? I just cannot believe that people that watch the game can dismiss such an incident
 
These 'pars' you use, EC1......can their accuracy be validated through empirical analysis.......or are they guesswork?
 
It's fair points ec but it's also very fair to say that rb was not a 2m 4f horse that won by default. The formbook tells us that.
 
i just plucked them out of the air..i produced them from 2 known even pace races...i actually made a point of asking you if you agreed those were even pace races..now you are questioning where they came from..just read the original post

look...i've done wasting time on this Grass

its like a VDW forum where we discuss Prominent King from the 70's...or beacon light or whatever

no one is going to take any notice of it..its just a waste of life

i'll watch the thread..and see if all these time experts we have on here..lots make figures here..let them have a go..i can't be arsed....i've done my bit..again..more than anyone else does on here..spending valuable time...and no one is really interested..look how many people reply ...and yet its a forum of racing experts.
 
I believe Faugheen could be very special but his jumping prevents me from getting involved too heavily. I have also heard a rumour that My Tent Or Yours may not be out for the season:whistle: Binocular springs to mind
 
Agree with those who say Jezki huge value. No rush though as the mickey mouse style races in Ireland don't suit him so his price should hold. He needs to race at a proper pace to show his best..

You could back him each way as the Champion Hurdle has no depth - apart from Faugheen and The New One, who else is there? If someone says Irving that just proves the point!
 
EC, here is how it's gone so far.

I have gone into this discussion with a wholly-open mind, and asked a series of questions which are pertinent to me. Some of these you have answered fully, some you haven't, some I've not been able to follow/understand the answer, and some I've disagreed with or queried further.

Unfortunately, when I've queried things further, I get told I'm wasting your time (when I'm not being bracketed as a "guesser", that is).

As clivex says, stop being a blouse and taking it so personally when someone disagrees with you, or asks for further qualification - because the questions are still legit, even if you don't like them.
 
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clivex said:
Ec. It's appreciated mate. Stop being a big girls blouse.
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i know..i just get fed up with going over stuff again and again..we have people on here that make figures..supposed experts..they never post a word when we discuss this aspect..i just end up wasting my time replying..i'm bored with being the one that puts some effort in tbh

i'm done discussing any time related stuff on here until i see others who are supposed to be interested in that aspect make some effort.
 
Hamm said:
Agree with those who say Jezki huge value. No rush though as the mickey mouse style races in Ireland don't suit him so his price should hold. He needs to race at a proper pace to show his best..

You could back him each way as the Champion Hurdle has no depth - apart from Faugheen and The New One, who else is there? If someone says Irving that just proves the point!
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Still open minded about Vaniteux atm. Hopefully he takes on TNO at the weekend. I would expect him to give TNO a real examination.
 
Grasshopper said:
EC, here is how it's gone so far.

I have gone into this discussion with a wholly-open mind, and asked a series of questions which are pertinent to me. Some of these you have answered fully, some you haven't, some I've not been able to follow/understand the answer, and some I've disagreed with or queried further.

Unfortunately, when I've queried things further, I get told I'm wasting your time (when I'm not being bracketed as a "guesser", that is).

As clivex says, stop being a blouse and taking it so personally when someone disagrees with you, or asks for further qualification - because the questions are still legit, even if you don't like them.
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Reet Hard brought the term guesser in to it..not me...my comments about guessers was in reference to his post..not you personally

i don't mind being disagreed with..if its done with something behind it...and i've explained clearly how i put those figures up

like i said..let someone else now take the mantle..its not fookin rocket science..and there are plenty of time admirers on here..let them have a go

i think though you will find people are more interested in posting ante post selections for cheltenham or what horse might run here there or everywhere or what have you ...than actually talking about the nuts and bolts of the game..its boring to most people...not relevant to them.
 
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To be fair, reet was referencing an earlier use of "guessers" by yourself.

No matter. You are clearly fed-up trying to educate me, and I'm fed-up trying to understand it, so we can call it a score draw. A robust CH debate between us was long overdue anyway! :D
 
Frankel said:
Still open minded about Vaniteux atm. Hopefully he takes on TNO at the weekend. I would expect him to give TNO a real examination.
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You sure about this Frankel?

Couldn't win a Greatwood off 147 despite getting run of race? He will surely be outclassed by TNO....no?
 
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