Champion Hurdle 2015

Actually, Grass, I thought it was me that Warbler's mud flinging and DO's sniping and nitpicking were aimed at, though I see nothing in either of our posts on this thread that could be construed in such manner? It's a robust discussion; I have my own views on judging pace (formed over some 20 well-served years, DO, and facts and figures often given to back them up), and am not about to curl up and sulk in the corner because not everyone agrees with them.
You can't hang on your hat on NH pace figures (even EC seems to tacitly agree with that), and for various, blindingly obvious reasons they will always be open to question (Ffs, Mo Farah doesn't run the same pace every time he races, he does just what he has to, to beat those he's up against) and those who promote pace figures as the word from the mount on the severely limited information available (such as SR's pace collapse treatise on the 013 CH) not only need to be challenged, it's healthy for this forum, and our understanding of pace generally, that they are queried, and it'll be a cold day for us all when it ceases.
 
Damn - call that love fifteen then if I've walked into one

Actually, I think there are clues about the cubic capacity of a flat run that we can learn, as it's how a horse performas when he's asked for maximum effort. I'll accept that training regimes and maturation can of course stretch a trip out, but then you might argue that this has been regulated for as the horse moves up from 12F's to 16F's anyway. You can't however redesign a horse like you could an F1 car.

I think I'm right in saying anerobic running can only last about 6F's anyway, albeit this is reduced to about 3F's once a horse been required to run a mile and half already

Trudi ???????? or any vety person might be able to help a bit

If you want a pass to my secret laboratory though, you'll have to prove yourself capable of performing these basic levels of analysis. Even if you park the flat runs to one side and put them in an isolation unit, you can still perform the same analysis (I don't subscribe to the RP's paid service so can't access the info anymore) but if you subject Hurricane Fly to the pace analysis using RPR and TS and split his runs by any other demarcation you like (year, distance, code) whatever, the same conclusion comes back each time

In fact EC subscribes doesn't he? (or anyone) If we could have a look at the results with a line inserted at a differential of 7Ibs and lower (strong pace) with the Fly's result in brackets and then another group between 8Ibs and 15Ibs (decent pace) and finally one for 16Ibs and more (modest pace) then the results are quite stark.

What you have is a devastating horse for the slower two races, who becomes vulnerable beyond his price in the fast race. The key to the horse (as indeed it is for 2 mile championship races) is pace. Hurricane Fly is fine at strong/ brisk pace and can still win these races, but starts to become vulnerable off a real break neck strong pace
 
[/QUOTE]When you split Hurricane Fly's races into strong, moderate, and slow, (including those on the flat - as it's the sam epair of lungs and muscles he's using) you'll see a very definite pattern which no one would fancy backing 5/4 about in a bigger field strongly run race. I think he's won once in something like eight attempts in such races, yet has harvested more slowly contested races by using tactical speed[/QUOTE]

I think you better go look t the form book before writing complete Shyte

Hurricane Fly unless you are talking about Hurricane Fly the immature 3yo-4yo who was not then the same horse as the Hurricane Fly we got to know and respect. He has only ever been beaten 4 or 5 times since joining Willie Mullins and apart from the Champion Hurdle when he was beaten by Rock on Ruby, who he reversed pace with later you'd go back in time to when he was a 4yo to find a defeat in a race where there was a big field involved

Last years Champion can hardly be brought into it with only 9 runners 8 after the 3rd hurdle he finsihed the same distance ahead of Captain Cee Bee as he had in the Ryanair Hurdle......Maybe that is as good as he is now but on overall form the horse was a true Champion.

One should be careful when talking about Hurricane Fly. All it would take is for a couple to drop out and he could well still win yet another Champion Hurdle:)
 
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And this is why I despair and frankly can't really be arsed with a forum like Talking Horses

I think I made it clear that this issue is about pace. Suggest you go back and conduct the same exercise I've been imploring others to do Tanlic rather than cherry picking the bits that you want to read which suit your theory. It ain't difficult to do - honest - provided you have a subscription. Just take the differential between the winners TS and the RPR noting the finishing position of Hurricane Fly. Then rank the differentials in order

Field size might be a lesser issue, albeit depth of opposition is more important. Clearly the biggest issue that determines the result though is pace/ stamina. When ever he's faced a fierce pace he's nearly always lost, whether that be against champion hurdlers or fellow 3yo's (who he also beat incidentally off a more obliging pace). When he's been asked for a maximum effort for a longer period of time and has struggled to sustain it. The evidence is there (or was last time I looked)

I'd also point out that you might like to compare his sections against the 2011 Supreme as well. That really would give you shock, albeit the history books can now tell us that Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card turned out half decent, and Al Ferof would be no back number
 
reet hard said:
Actually, Grass, I thought it was me that Warbler's mud flinging and DO's sniping and nitpicking were aimed at, though I see nothing in either of our posts on this thread that could be construed in such manner? It's a robust discussion; I have my own views on judging pace (formed over some 20 well-served years, DO, and facts and figures often given to back them up), and am not about to curl up and sulk in the corner because not everyone agrees with them.
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Rest assured you weren't foremost in my mind when I posted that, reet. Any other animosity towards me you might bear would seem to stem from elsewhere. It's now quite a number of years since I posted the details of my stuff on here, probably before you joined. Some of the snipers and nitpickers may well have moved on but I'm reluctant to leave myself open to new ones. Plenty of people know the minutiae of my analysis as I'm still sharing by other means.

No one enjoys a positive, constructive debate about form more than me but I can go back to before the original Rooster Booster thread (probably the old C4 forum in fact) with posts about ratings and analysis only to be shot down by people whose agenda was questionable. The reticence to share completely openly continues.
 
all race outcomes are ruled by the pace...and the distances between horses and their finishing postions are ruled by that

if you ignore the effect of pace and just do A beats B analysis you are just scratching the surface tbh imo..but maybe you can win by just scratching the surface

we all have to do what we have to do and be comfy with it..if someone says to me i have some ratings and they give me a good profit..then what does it matter as long as they work

I'll tell you one thing though..i have never come across on the internet..any one who can make the NH pay..and demonstrate it..not just say they make money..but put up real time selections and show a profit..i've seen people do well with flat racing..never seen anyone on line who can make NH pay

i wonder why that is
 
So all Jumps supporters are skint, deluded, eejits, simply because they don't use the clock in their form assessment? :blink:

The reason I rarely post 'real time selections', is because I don't have the time to look at race cards mid-week, and wouldn't have the time to post any selections, even if I did. If I do fancy one, I tend to e-mail a view to a couple of my mates (including member Digger) rather than post it here.....because I know that a name without any context, isn't much of a contribution. That aside, I'm a frequent contributor to all of the main Jumps races throughout the season. Do I make it pay? Not so far this fu*cking season, that's for sure - I have done my Jacksons on each of the last five weekends, and if it doesn't turn itself around soon, I'll not be happy.

Getting back to 'real time selections', the greater question is surely how come Flatties always seem to have the time to post these detailed race analyses?

Squeezing the study in between visits to Brentford Nylons, I expect. :)
 
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Grasshopper said:
So all Jumps supporters are skint, deluded, eejits, simply because they don't use the clock in their form assessment? :blink:

:)
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no no no..you are looking for what isn't there..my point was that irrelevant of how its analysed i have never known anyone who can post selections in real time and make a profit with NH selections

it was just something that i have thought for a long time..forget the time thing altogether..i'm not talking about that any more..and won't in future
 
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Grasshopper said:
Getting back to 'real time selections', the greater question is surely how come Flatties always seem to have the time to post these detailed race analyses?

Squeezing the study in between visits to Brentford Nylons, I expect. :)
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you'll find plenty of NH analysis on other forums if you look Grass...they have time because they remove all the twigs from their arses before sitting down..more comfy to write then
 
Grasshopper said:
Getting back to 'real time selections', the greater question is surely how come Flatties always seem to have the time to post these detailed race analyses?
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Better organisational skills, personal discipline, and ability to handle multi complexity.

I've actually heard a few pro punters bemoaning EC's general point however that they can make money on the flat, but struggle on the jumps without informed inside information from the yard
 
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Everyone will have their own way of doing things. There is no exact science in this game but if you can find a way that suits you and helps you find winners then it makes sense.

Pace is of course king in any race. I would imagine 99% of punters realise this. Have read the word 'pace' a few times in this thread, can't imagine anyone not having that instilled on their brain from a very early stage.
 
Weight carried is the "king" of every race. Not pace frankel.

Personally I think there can be a little overanalysing which leads to the belief that minor changes in pace will bring about drastically different results. Extreme examples yes, but that's a minority of races. Especially over the jumps
 
Don't get the point. Because they are carrying same weight, doesn't make it insignificant. In fact it's every bit as significant as if they are handicapped
 
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clivex said:
Don't get the point. Because they are carrying same weight, doesn't make it insignificant. In fact it's every bit as significant as if they are handicapped
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so what you are saying is that in a level weights contest..you find the weight they carry significant?

you'll have to run that by me Clive
 
Differing abilities carrying same weight is the same as differing abilities carrying different weights.
 
EC1 said:
I'll tell you one thing though..i have never come across on the internet..any one who can make the NH pay..and demonstrate it..not just say they make money..but put up real time selections and show a profit..i've seen people do well with flat racing..never seen anyone on line who can make NH pay
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Are you serious with that remark, EC1?

I must be misreading my accounts.
 
Most horses don't though do they? Otherwise handicapping would be a waste of time and we could back certain big strong horses regardless of penalties. Doesn't work that way does it? Most horses eventually find their mark.

for me it's still the biggest factor in the result.
 
Frankel said:
Pace is of course king in any race. I would imagine 99% of punters realise this. Have read the word 'pace' a few times in this thread, can't imagine anyone not having that instilled on their brain from a very early stage.
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I'm not sure about that. Pace is probably less of an issue in the big Saturday and/or festival races (in the sense that there tends to be enough of it to make the form reliable) but I have reservations about most other races and especially Irish races in which I think the horse with the best turn of foot wins the ordinary races.

For me the most important factor in a race is simply whether the handicapper has its measure or not. Then again, the big handicaps tend to take up about 80% of my time. The implication of this is that the weight a horse receives or concedes is the single most important factor in any jumps [and probably flat] race.

If a horse rated 150 takes on a horse rated 140 and those ratings are a true measure of thier respective abilities, I'm not sure pace would matter that much in the outcome of a race between them.
 
EC1 said:
you excepted...then again i don't know about all those sneaky bets you have without telling me:D
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Feel free to go back through all my correspondence to you :)

Then again, even just saying that will probably leave me open to accusations of aftertiming...
 
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clivex said:
Most horses don't though do they? Otherwise handicapping would be a waste of time and we could back certain big strong horses regardless of penalties. Doesn't work that way does it? Most horses eventually find their mark.

for me it's still the biggest factor in the result.
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and for me..its the least important

i go by a horses mark in a handicap..if its ahead of it..i don't even look what weight its got..as long as its capable of performing above its mark..i'm interested

we will be getting to the point where someone will quote ..you can slow a horse down with more weight..but taking it off doesn't make them go faster ..fallacy.. shortly i'm thinking

thats the most illogical statement i ever heard in racing

its peddled by someone with a database who has confused less weight carried by ignoring the fact the class rise that entails

for example

lets say you have two exactly the same horses..ratings wise..consistency wise...health wise.

this saturday they run against each other and dead heat..both carry 10 stone

the saturday after the same two run against each other..but one carries 9-00

the one with 9-00 wins every time

but not according to the less weight doesn't make a horse go faster believers.

its absolutely going to help you run for longer at your set speed

i know this is true because ..i went up to the shop the other day and bought 4 bags of shopping..took me f00kin ages to get home...and yet went up today and only bought one bag..i were home in no time.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Feel free to go back through all my correspondence to you :)

Then again, even just saying that will probably leave me open to accusations of aftertiming...
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i've just been through them all..bloody hell...you a busy boy..some nice winners there..i'll list them at intervals on here if you want..oh no thats aftertiming

what emails anyway?:)
 
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