Champion Hurdle 2015

Desert Orchid said:
If a horse rated 150 takes on a horse rated 140 and those ratings are a true measure of thier respective abilities, I'm not sure pace would matter that much in the outcome of a race between them.
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140 horse likes to make the pace..150 horse ..held off pace type...140 horse has two other pace horses eyeball him for a circuit..drops back to last quarter of field to finish 12th tired as has been made to go a stride or two quicker than comfy with..150 horse runs through when pace slackens and wins by 10

only 10lb between these horses..but one beats the other 40 lengths

yes..pace does affect even this scenario
 
Frankel said:
The 1% are clearly living on this forum then. :D
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1% seems such a low percentage but if we take a guess that the UK has 200,000 regular punters that's 2000 of them winning. It's fair to say a fair proportion of them would be on forums and social media platforms engaging people with the same interest.
 
I get the feeling this debate could roll on and on and on. Much to my surprise.

All good though as it is a forum after all.

Pace is fooking king though :cool:
 
EC1 said:
no no no..you are looking for what isn't there..my point was that irrelevant of how its analysed i have never known anyone who can post selections in real time and make a profit with NH selections

it was just something that i have thought for a long time..forget the time thing altogether..i'm not talking about that any more..and won't in future
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Check out my blog EC, 5+ years of real time selections and in profit.
 
EC1 said:
and for me..its the least important

i go by a horses mark in a handicap..if its ahead of it..i don't even look what weight its got..as long as its capable of performing above its mark..i'm interested

we will be getting to the point where someone will quote ..you can slow a horse down with more weight..but taking it off doesn't make them go faster ..fallacy.. shortly i'm thinking

thats the most illogical statement i ever heard in racing

its peddled by someone with a database who has confused less weight carried by ignoring the fact the class rise that entails

for example

lets say you have two exactly the same horses..ratings wise..consistency wise...health wise.

this saturday they run against each other and dead heat..both carry 10 stone

the saturday after the same two run against each other..but one carries 9-00

the one with 9-00 wins every time

but not according to the less weight doesn't make a horse go faster believers.

its absolutely going to help you run for longer at your set speed

i know this is true because ..i went up to the shop the other day and bought 4 bags of shopping..took me f00kin ages to get home...and yet went up today and only bought one bag..i were home in no time.
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least important? When I mean weight I do of course mean its mark

then you sort of contradict that anyway. Bloody hell.
 
EC1 said:
140 horse likes to make the pace..150 horse ..held off pace type...140 horse has two other pace horses eyeball him for a circuit..drops back to last quarter of field to finish 12th tired as has been made to go a stride or two quicker than comfy with..150 horse runs through when pace slackens and wins by 10

only 10lb between these horses..but one beats the other 40 lengths

yes..pace does affect even this scenario
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Hmmm that's a bit of a very selective scenario. You can equally say that weight doesnt matter whenthe jockey screws it up. Which effectively is what the above is. What I will also say (and some of us discussed this at Kempton the other week...which is often a front runners course) is that I am sure that the old front runners cutting each other up business is seen less frequently these days.
 
What is it about the champion hurdle that causes more pages of discussion 3 months before the race than any other does up to the day ?

My 2nd fav of the year, behind the Supreme but fook me I'm lost. Should I or shouldn't I back Rooster ?
 
EC1 said:
140 horse likes to make the pace..150 horse ..held off pace type...140 horse has two other pace horses eyeball him for a circuit..drops back to last quarter of field to finish 12th tired as has been made to go a stride or two quicker than comfy with..150 horse runs through when pace slackens and wins by 10

only 10lb between these horses..but one beats the other 40 lengths

yes..pace does affect even this scenario
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The 150 still pisses up and would do off an easier pace.
 
Warbler said:
Better organisational skills, personal discipline, and ability to handle multi complexity.
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So, to translate.....they've nothing else of note going on in their lives, they're all a bit OCD, and they all have questionable personal habits?

Glad we cleared that up. :D
 
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My final contribution to the pace debate - I'm talking Jumps only.

The 'pace' is set by the lead jockey in the race, and as with all things where human intervention applies, there is therefore an element of unpredictability about it. If we see four confirmed frontrunners lining-up, we can probably satisfy ourselves the race will be true-run......but they could go off too fast in this scenario......or too slowly......and we can only guess at this ahead of time.

Given we clearly cannot predict ahead of time, whether or not a race will be run at 'even pace', what value does it add as an Input to the winner-finding process? Or is 'pace analysis' better-used as a tool for awarding a 'pace-weighted' mark as an Output?

My overall point is that whilst the clock will accurately record the overall race time, and the sectionals, you're still dependent on the jockey to hit the mark, in terms of how they distribute the pace of their horse throughout a Jumps race. The random human element influences the measurable time element, and it's essentially this fact which pushes Time/Pace down my personal priority list, when weighing-up a race.

The scenario on the Flat is different, because jockeys tend to ride all-out over short distances, whereas there's far more 'wiggle-room' in a Jumps race.
 
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Grasshopper said:
So, to translate.....they've nothing else of note going on in their lives, they're all a bit OCD, and they all have questionable personal habits?

Glad we cleared that up. :D
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That's very unfair.

Ive just sent you a 40 page email explaining why this isn't so
 
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The pace part is vital to the outcome of a race. This very scenario is an issue in the big handicap at HQ tomorrow. There isn't a confirmed front-runner in the race. It's possible one of the less experienced horses will do that, but it's more likely it will be muddling for a circuit. The latter scenario would not suit a hold up horse like Caid du Berlais at all. He needs to be delivered late off a strongly run race to be seen to best effect, and if it's a slowly run race he'll be beaten because the horses at the front won't be stopping quickly enough.

Incidentally his style of running also helps his mark because it'll be rare he wins easily because of the need for a well timed run from his jockey. Generally it means the handicapper can't be too harsh. On the other hand flashy easy winners get hammered by the handicapper.
 
That's a slightly different argument, Paul. I could tell you CDB wants held-up, and his chance is likely to be compromised in the absence of any front-runners.....without ever having looked at the times of any of his races.

On a wider-point, whilst I remain sceptical that Time can be applied in a productive way over Jumps, I'd like to thank EC1, Trackside and others for trying to further my education regardless.
 
With respect, I'd venture that a 56k h/c with 13 runners is highly unlikely to be run at a modest pace, regardless of the make-up of individual horses.
 
Grasshopper said:
So, to translate.....they've nothing else of note going on in their lives, they're all a bit OCD, and they all have questionable personal habits?

Glad we cleared that up. :D
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Probably a lot more truth in that synopsis than we'd prefer to admit
 
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