Champion Hurdle 2015

Desert Orchid said:
The 150 still pisses up and would do off an easier pace.
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i disagree..in fact we have seen many instances where a horse 25lb shy can route a field with an easy lead for instance. pace changing the outcome of a race completely

My point wasn't really about the difference in ratings they hold though..it was about how you would rate that race...if using AvB you would probably say that the beaten horse has badly underperformed..but not know why without looking at the pace aspect

Grass mentions about no one knows the pace for sure before a race...well you have to assess it using some type of methodology:)..same as you work owt else out...again when it comes to time/pace we have to know exactly if its going to help us.....its got to give exact results...and yet i'll again add....that same exactness is totally ignored when the clerk of the course says..well the ground is soft..but i can't tell you how soft..just soft..could be 40lb per mile different from that...can't tell you the actual distance ..oh well its roughly 3 mile give or take a mile..exactness suddenly doesn't matter does it?..oh we can't do owt about it..as long as i know ground has give and its roughly 3 mileish i'm happy to punt.....whats that you saying about pace and time?..oh no....i don't bother with that..its not exact enough,,wtf?
 
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Warbler said:
And this is why I despair and frankly can't really be arsed with a forum like Talking Horses

I think I made it clear that this issue is about pace. Suggest you go back and conduct the same exercise I've been imploring others to do Tanlic rather than cherry picking the bits that you want to read which suit your theory. It ain't difficult to do - honest - provided you have a subscription. Just take the differential between the winners TS and the RPR noting the finishing position of Hurricane Fly. Then rank the differentials in order

Field size might be a lesser issue, albeit depth of opposition is more important. Clearly the biggest issue that determines the result though is pace/ stamina. When ever he's faced a fierce pace he's nearly always lost, whether that be against champion hurdlers or fellow 3yo's (who he also beat incidentally off a more obliging pace). When he's been asked for a maximum effort for a longer period of time and has struggled to sustain it. The evidence is there (or was last time I looked)

I'd also point out that you might like to compare his sections against the 2011 Supreme as well. That really would give you shock, albeit the history books can now tell us that Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card turned out half decent, and Al Ferof would be no back number
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Well I think it's a bit more complicated than that. I seem to remember Ruby saying he just never felt right at any stage when he lost one of his Champion Hurdles. I respect the man's opinion and see no reason why I wouldn't accept that as the reason he ran so badly that time round.

If you know the amount of times Grassy and I were locked in battle me on Binocular's side and Grassy Hurricane Fly's number 1 fan, you might wonder why I am defending the horse.

There comes a time when horses who are masters at making a fool of you when you have to stand up and face the fact you were wrong. I accepted a long time ago the horse was some very special animal and no matter how hard I try I find it very hard to pick holes in him.

It makes me wonder why anyone else would.

As far as pace goes I sincerely doubt if Hurricane Fly would have lost a single race that he won had the pace been any different...the horse was in a different league and gawd knows they tried everything they could to beat him and in 21 races failed miserably and to top it he just kicked the Champion Hurdler's ass big time.

Hardly a horse that should be on the radar for knockers
 
EC1 said:
Grass mentions about no one knows the pace for sure before a race...well you have to assess it using some type of methodology:)..same as you work owt else out...again when it comes to time/pace we have to know exactly if its going to help us.....its got to give exact results...and yet i'll again add....that same exactness is totally ignored when the clerk of the course says..well the ground is soft..but i can't tell you how soft..just soft..could be 40lb per mile different from that...can't tell you the actual distance ..oh well its roughly 3 mile give or take a mile..exactness suddenly doesn't matter does it?..oh we can't do owt about it..as long as i know ground has give and its roughly 3 mileish i'm happy to punt.....whats that you saying about pace and time?..oh no....i don't bother with that..its not exact enough,,wtf?
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This is another angle which I'm relucatnt to open up as Talking Horses threads don't always develop harmoniously, but it was Grasshopper who recently suggested that the only thing the calculation of a time based going (track variance) tells you it's what's happened in the past, as by definition its historical data. I still find this line of rationale difficult to follow, but frankly couldn't be bothered to say anything then.

What is the foundation of any form study if it isn't extrapolating historical data as a basis for making a future forecast of the likelihood of a level of performance? Any speed rating is no different to conventional form study in essence. In fact you could probably argue that speed rating is more responsive in that you can have a reasonable indication as to what the true going is within an hour and still switch stratgey mid way through the meetin a bit like you might start to apply a draw bias that has started to reveal itself. You can't do that with conventional form study. You have to wait until the horse you've noticed something about runs again

Personally I'd rather put my faith in the horse to reveal the ground (with what is more accurate measure anyway) than a clerk, who might or might not be observing a different agenda when declaring anyway. If you keep the records together, you'll end up generating a better archive of what the horse has really be running on, which should hand you a small advantage in drawing conclusions which can be used in the future

I think his argument about not knowing what the pace will be before hand is fair enough though, and even then you have degrees of pace to muddy things. It tends to be the big races where there's a prize at stake where we see a strong pace, but it's been noticeable in the last few years how many big 2 mile handicap hurdles we've seen run at a comparative crawl. There are some races, notably the championship 2 mile races at the festival which are nearly always run lickety spit, so you're just rowing in with the balance of probabilities
 
Digger said:
So - Champion Hurdle.....any thoughts?
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Champion Hurdle?...not yet..its not till march though..so will probably make my mind up on the day.

my general point Warbler though is the absolute need for exactness or it can't be that relevant..when there is no exactness about any part of the game
 
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there..is Granger's summing up response better for you Digger?

maybe we should start the fishwife thing again...keep thread on track

so thats the CH news..not much more to talk about til March then

nice day outside i've noticed
 
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Grasshopper said:
That's a slightly different argument, Paul. I could tell you CDB wants held-up, and his chance is likely to be compromised in the absence of any front-runners.....without ever having looked at the times of any of his races.

On a wider-point, whilst I remain sceptical that Time can be applied in a productive way over Jumps, I'd like to thank EC1, Trackside and others for trying to further my education regardless.
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Of course it can be applies in a productive way.......if you are friggin Albert Einstein.

There's a lot more to racing than time which can be a guide but it's a pretty weak asset to have in your portfolio.

We all know Jezki will produce a better time than a selling hurdle winner the majority of time but not always.

Sectional can be used for spotting an exceptional horse especially on the flat as someone on here did with Kinsman in his very first race.

Where it falls down is the ground is far too big an issue especially over the jumps.

Comparing a horse who won at Hexam in soft to a horse that won at Ayr in soft ground tells as far to little.

A rain shower more, a groundsman let the grass grow too long a horse loses his balance for a few seconds hit a fence and the time can be altered dramatically.

Even a Jockey sitting and sitting and sitting before pushing the butting can knock 5 seconds off a time.

So unless you know everything that went on it's not a waste of time but it's along way from the answer to more winners.

Does anyone believe Timeform study times more than they use staff to actually sit and watch races.........I have never heard any pundit on Timeform Radio talk about time

They mention how a race may be run and which horse will be suited by pace but over the day they are lucky if the pick 3 winners from 18 races and these are the professionals. Pace is mentioned in about every race and they still get it wrong most of the time

ONly person you should apologies to in this game is yourself every time you were going to back something that won and didn't.....and of course is you lose the nut on the forum and slag someone off for nothing:whistle:
 
EC1 said:
my general point Warbler though is the absolute need for exactness or it can't be that relevant..when there is no exactness about any part of the game
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I tend to the view that you might as well strive for being exact on the formula, because you can. OK there are degrees of precission within, but a track variance only takes 5 mins to calculate and most of that is data transfer and deciding which races to omit from the sample
 
granger said:
Jezki best price....If he wins yes:)

TNO - best of the Brits...........Gawd Help Us:p

Hurricane - would need things to fall into place.....Plus be back to his very best

Ruby - will soon see how ruthless he is

Faugheen - untapped potential
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Yeah apologies this is what we should be discussing

Jezki best price............only if he wins

TNO - best of the Brits............at the moment but Nicky or PN could yet change that

Hurricane - would need things to fall into place.........Doubt if they will run him again in the Champion

Ruby - will soon see how ruthless he is...........Highly unlikely he will need to decide

Faugheen - untapped potential.........For me he looks in a different parish to the rest
 
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Tanlic said:
Of course it can be applies in a productive way.......if you are friggin Albert Einstein.

There's a lot more to racing than time which can be a guide but it's a pretty weak asset to have in your portfolio.

We all know Jezki will produce a better time than a selling hurdle winner the majority of time but not always.

Sectional can be used for spotting an exceptional horse especially on the flat as someone on here did with Kinsman in his very first race.

Where it falls down is the ground is far too big an issue especially over the jumps.

Comparing a horse who won at Hexam in soft to a horse that won at Ayr in soft ground tells as far to little.

A rain shower more, a groundsman let the grass grow too long a horse loses his balance for a few seconds hit a fence and the time can be altered dramatically.

Even a Jockey sitting and sitting and sitting before pushing the butting can knock 5 seconds off a time.

So unless you know everything that went on it's not a waste of time but it's along way from the answer to more winners.

Does anyone believe Timeform study times more than they use staff to actually sit and watch races.........I have never heard any pundit on Timeform Radio talk about time

They mention how a race may be run and which horse will be suited by pace but over the day they are lucky if the pick 3 winners from 18 races and these are the professionals. Pace is mentioned in about every race and they still get it wrong most of the time

ONly person you should apologies to in this game is yourself every time you were going to back something that won and didn't.....and of course is you lose the nut on the forum and slag someone off for nothing:whistle:
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Tanlic..there is so much wrong in there..i just can't even go there.:)

yes lets talk about CH...oh you and Granger have just done that nicely..wtf are we going to do on this thread til March????:lol:
 
Its a start. No issue with people having pace / time chat but most of them havent even mentioned the CH... get a wee thread started to cover that off.
 
I suppose you could give us an idea how you think the Champion Hurdle will be run in March EC........what will make the running which horse will be the first to kick for home which horses will be able to go with him.......bases on pace and past times of course.

Personally I reckon Faugheen will go for home just before the second last TNO will be left for dead and Jezki's effort will be short lived. My advice is put the calculator and stop watch away and have you balls on Faugheen.......I worked that one out with an abacus.

You say there's so much wrong with my post you can't go there......so ground at one course if soft has exactly the same holding properties as another. And If Barry Geraghty hangs on to Sprinter Sacre for a mile before pushing the button it would make no difference to the overall time of a race and if a horse ploughs through a fence it doesn't slow him down for a dozen or so slides and has no affect on time..were you born a patronising comedian or did it take practice.
 
Just so happen we have a trial today and none other than the New One is out to take advantage of the lack of competition once again........he keeps on at this rate he'll have won more than the CH is worth before March.

In normal Circumstances there would be nothing between 2 horses in the betting if a horse was 4lbs better off for 2 3/4 lengths, especially if it was his first race for over 300 days.

For some reason that is not the case with TNO and Zamdy Man. I wonder if Miss Williams fancies her chances of her charge giving the New One a bit more to think about this time?

There must also be a chance that Vanituex will be in better nick than he was in the Greatwood. Nicky's horses were not at their best when he finished 2nd and he wouldn't have to improve much to make a race of it with TNO.

Sometimes you look at these races and think it's buying money but at odds on I could neither back or lay for that matter The New One today
 
Tanlic said:
I suppose you could give us an idea how you think the Champion Hurdle will be run in March EC........what will make the running which horse will be the first to kick for home which horses will be able to go with him.......bases on pace and past times of course.

Personally I reckon Faugheen will go for home just before the second last TNO will be left for dead and Jezki's effort will be short lived. My advice is put the calculator and stop watch away and have you balls on Faugheen.......I worked that one out with an abacus.

You say there's so much wrong with my post you can't go there......so ground at one course if soft has exactly the same holding properties as another. And If Barry Geraghty hangs on to Sprinter Sacre for a mile before pushing the button it would make no difference to the overall time of a race and if a horse ploughs through a fence it doesn't slow him down for a dozen or so slides and has no affect on time..were you born a patronising comedian or did it take practice.
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Firstly, its a good idea to actually know the runners before you try and assess pace in a race..so trying to do it 3 months before the race..is a bit of a daft request

What you worked out..without an abacus..is probably pure guesswork...so again..a bit daft

You call me patronising then use derisive comments like abacus

Then you go on to pick something about the going that i haven't even passed comment on...again trying to put words in my mouth.

Lets get one thing clear here...my record on this forum at putting winners up is probably as good as anyone...and yet..my methods are for taking the p1ss out of...that seems to me to be a stupid logic..if its so hilarious..why do i do so well?

I haven't said time analysis is ideal for the jumps...but its a useful tool..and a great one one the AW in particular.

Here is one thing i don't do...read a thread...see some bits i don't actually use myself..or have that much knowledge about...and proceed to take the p1ss out of it.

Now i have no interest in chewing the cud on this particularly..or falling out with you Tanlic..you are decent guy and make me laugh at the bits i should laugh at..and i don't want to patronise you..but some of what you wrote is just plain wrong

Of course it can be applies in a productive way.......if you are friggin Albert Einstein.
Firstly..a bit of simple maths..isn't really being Albert Einstein.

There's a lot more to racing than time which can be a guide but it's a pretty weak asset to have in your portfolio.

Yes there are myriad of ways of looking at racing..not many though can tell you how fast a race was run through out and early + late..without times...and put a poundage on it. How can it be a weak asset when in the top 5 things that can change a race..pace is one of the key ones..thats like saying..knowing the ground conditions can be a guide..but knowing it can be a pretty weak asset to have in your portfolio.

Sectional can be used for spotting an exceptional horse especially on the flat as someone on here did with Kinsman in his very first race.

It can be used daily..and you don't need to wait for exceptional horses..i've currently got a list of 50+ horses who are capable of performing above their current marks...some 10lb+. I could give lots of examples..but one area that crops up a lot is when a horse wins a maiden race..there are lots of mdn races...using sectionals gives a great advantage..so i'll just mention one that won yesterday..Persona Grata

Persona Grata debut on 10 October..purely on overall time it was nothing special..recorded a figure of just 31..due to a pace that was 40lb slow to 2f out. But when i look at my figures for the sectional..it tells me that this horse..due to how it won..was worth a OHR rating of 77. Obviously a FTO horse can improve usually..so its not too hard to imagine this is a 80+ horse..yes?

It ran next in an apprentice handicap..off 70..it won easily at 2/1..but was available bigger than that most of the day. It had 10+ in hand on my calcs...what a bet. I doubt anyone would have thought at that point it was an 80+ horse..just looking at overall time or form.

That win on the 2nd December did let the cat out of the bag overall time wise as it did put in a decent overall time this time.

It ran again..yesterday..again off 70,,as it had only won an apprentice race..so on my figures was still about 10+ in hand of that mark..this time people had cottoned on..but it was still available early doors above evens.

If you read the what you betting thread..you will see many selections i've put up over the last 5 or 6 weeks..and they are about a 3rd of my actual bets.
Without sectional analysis..none of the bets would have been clear to me..none.

You are delving into an area hidden from 99% of punters...i think that gives an edge..a big one..and to have someone deride that seems stupid to me..again..its like me going on Bachelors Hall's thread and calling it sh1t because i can't be arsed to spend the time he does..if i did that..many here would be on my back for sure.

Thats the problem i think you have..and a few others probably,,can't be arsed to take the time..i've no problem with can't be arsed...i can't be arsed with stuff either..but i don't go criticising others who can be arsed.

Where it falls down is the ground is far too big an issue especially over the jumps.

The simple answer to that is..no it doesn't fall down because of that...over the twigs its more likely to fall down due to races being run to the nearest mile though:)

Comparing a horse who won at Hexam in soft to a horse that won at Ayr in soft ground tells as far to little.

I don't really get your point there...someone who doesn't assess the going with the clock is far more likely to fall into the trap of thinking all soft ground is the same. A punter will see the word Soft and use that for every course...whereas anyone who uses a clock will know that some courses never really get very deep ground whereas some are bogs when its wet. So to be honest that comment is a positive for using the clock to assess ground i would have thought.

Even a Jockey sitting and sitting and sitting before pushing the butting can knock 5 seconds off a time.

5 seconds...are you sure?..thats approx 25+ lengths over twigs..or 30+ on the flat. Well if i had a jockey who lost 25 lengths by just sitting and waiting..i'd first want to know if he had ever ridden before..and secondly want to know how he beat the world record for losing the most ground..just through waiting a bit..that's ever been lost by any jockey.

So unless you know everything that went on it's not a waste of time but it's along way from the answer to more winners.

here we are gain..my favourite..i have to know EVERYTHING or my way is no good..it probably has to be accurate to nearest nth as well doesn't it?...and yet a race can be 1.5f out in measure.....the ground can be 40lbs slower than that mister with a stick told you,,,and you will bet half your bank on a horse running over an unknown trip on unknown ground. So you yourself are actually betting knowing a thousand times less than Everything..and thats ok?

ONly person you should apologies to in this game is yourself every time you were going to back something that won and didn't.....and of course is you lose the nut on the forum and slag someone off for nothing

When someone tries to rubbish what i do with level of ignorance towards subject that you have..you will be pulled up..that's not slagging by the way...slagging is rubbishing something you don't really know about to try and score some points off a forum postee...you'd never do that though would you?

But i still enjoy your posts about other stuff:cool:
 
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I don't understand why anyone would find EC1's methods contentious. Even if you don't have the inclination to use them it's impossible to argue with the results.

The doubt I have is how they can be used reliably over the jumps. I have some thoughts which I've expressed earlier in the thread, and that requires using them in a slightly different way and focusing on specific race types in conjunction with a couple of other approaches. But I do believe speed figures can be used over the jumps too.
 
Maruco said:
I don't understand why anyone would find EC1's methods contentious. Even if you don't have the inclination to use them it's impossible to argue with the results.

The doubt I have is how they can be used reliably over the jumps. I have some thoughts which I've expressed earlier in the thread, and that requires using them in a slightly different way and focusing on specific race types in conjunction with a couple of other approaches. But I do believe speed figures can be used over the jumps too.
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thanks very much..a good post as well

yes its difficult if you want a comprehensive analysis of every NH race..which i don't particularly want..same with the flat..you wouldn't have time to sectional every race..and its visually not possible on some tracks..here is one advantage that the jumps has..the obstacles aid sectional analysis on all courses..a big advantage

one area i've looked at in the past is comparing two different races on the same day..split division novice hurdle races for one..compare one with the other using sectionals and i think you could isolate a number of novices who are better than the bare result tells.

as with anything..its only limited by the imagination..where there is a will etc.

this subject bores the pants of large % of people..i love it though..one reason i love it is i particularly like backing horses that have more in hand than the crowd knows..it is a form of inside info

there is very little left that isn't built into price these days...this isn't..and yet its seen as something to deride by some people..a most bizarre mindset imo
 
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Can I applaud everyone on this thread for their contributions. It's been a great debate and hasn't really descended into insults and slagging offs. It truly has been enlightening, particularly from yourself, EC1.
 
Len Madeiros said:
Can I applaud everyone on this thread for their contributions. It's been a great debate and hasn't really descended into insults and slagging offs. It truly has been enlightening, particularly from yourself, EC1.
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Aye, it's rare to see pace discussed in such depth on a racing forum, yet (though plenty on here still pooh pooh it) it's an absolute fundamental in judging how a race was run, even over extreme distances.
 
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