Champion Hurdle 2015

i don't think ANY horse is a nailed on placer over the twigs tbh..those hurdles or fences have a nasty habit of removing the place abilities of many nailed onners
 
SlimChance said:
We will do well to get the dead 8.
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There is a slightly depressing trend in this respect. I remember suggesting back in the day that there might only be a small field for RB to worry about but erstwhile forum stalwart terry was quick to point out that you didn't get small fields in 'modern' Champion Hurdles. I think the average in those days was something around 16. There were 17 runners that year and 14 in subsequent years gradually coming down to 10 three years ago and only 9 in each of the last two years.

In my younger days there always seemed to be the prospect of big-priced outsiders getting into the places, presumably picking up the pieces of an overfast pace. Past Master (100/1?), Easby Abbey (66/1?) and others whose names escape me all seemed 'findable' at the time. They weren't really just making up the numbers. Are connections just shiting the issue these days?
 
Lets just hope that they never create a 5th day of which the centrepiece will probably be a 2m4f grade 1 hurdle.
 
Christmas Hurdle entries,

Blue Heron
Faugheen
Hint Of Mint
Irving
Purple Bay
Sgt Reckless
Sign Of A Victory
 
Frankel said:
Christmas Hurdle entries,

Blue Heron
Faugheen
Hint Of Mint
Irving
Purple Bay
Sgt Reckless
Sign Of A Victory
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Can only see Irving giving Faugheen something to be worried about.

SGT Reckless running in the race is a strange one. Won his only chase quite easily, just wonder if he's taken a fall or 2 schooling?
 
DanB88 said:
Can only see Irving giving Faugheen something to be worried about.

SGT Reckless running in the race is a strange one. Won his only chase quite easily, just wonder if he's taken a fall or 2 schooling?
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Not heard anything to suggest he's had any problems.
He's one that really wants nice ground so if it stays dry then they may let him take his chance. Small field so could pick up some nice prize money.
 
After last years Supreme I'd have to question the line of thinking that suggests Irving is a pacey horse. He got left behind that day and this is a track for speedier horses as we all know. The graded races he's won are also some of the worst I've ever seen; the fighting fifth was embarrassing. He'll get outclassed.

This race is often won by a bridle horse and Sign of a victory fits that bill so I can see him giving Faugheen the most to worry about. Having said all that though I just have the sense that Faugheen is top class and will win easily.
 
DanB88 said:
Can only see Irving giving Faugheen something to be worried about.

SGT Reckless running in the race is a strange one. Won his only chase quite easily, just wonder if he's taken a fall or 2 schooling?
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Can't see Irving having the speed for this on g/s, and I'd see SOAV as the biggest threat.
 
I like Irving but if Faugheen pisses up here where does his priice go? 11/8?
 
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fonz said:
6/4, 11/8 is quite likely
What do u think he will SP in March Slim?
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At the moment you would have to think he goes off around 5/4 or shorter. Personally I love the The New One and Jezki e/w at 3/1 and 6/1. There is no downside at those prices given the likely make up of the race.
 
[SUB][/SUB]Irving probably better value for the win last time than the winning margin suggested. I was there that day and he looked physically very well. At those prices you have to have more money than sense to back the jolly. I think Irving will run him close. That said I'm sure you will get a free bet or concession on him with one or two cheap skates, but Irving is a bet for me.
 
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It should be informative. Nicky and Gerraghty no doubt think an awful lot of Sign Of A Victory, and are clearly hopeful he can be in the Champion Hurdle mix. And to be fair they know a fair bit about Champion Hurdlers.

Bear in mind his mark is still workable, so he obviously isn't going here expecting to be trounced by Faugheen.
 
That's a definite risk EC. If there's no pace on he'll have to make it otherwise he'll be vulnerable to Irving. I suspect if he does have to make it he'll then be vulnerable to SOAV who looks like the perfect horse to hold up off a strong pace.

But if he wins handily it'll be a huge advert for his Champion claims.
 
EC1 said:
i'd take opposite view..i think if he fails to have the speed for this..its a better pointer for the CH
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He's already proven he stays though Al, and his pedigree is laden with stamina too. If he shows he has the speed to win at Kempton in this kind of race that can only be a plus.

Let's put it this way. Isty would have p*ssed up in this race, and gone on to carry them in the Champion Hurdle, so whilst I like my trends, there are reasons why trends are broken.
 
thats true yes..i think he stays too well for a CH though:)..i think there is some halfway house for a CH winner....obviously depending on what type you beat at kempton..if the Xmas is full of stayer type CH horses then it wins by default..but it usually has the straight speedier 2 mile horses who do have a chance in it.

i think as a trial its a good one because of this angle...i just don't see Faugheen winning this tbh..but if he did..like you say..he has shown speed and the stamina already in the bag..adds even more relevance to the race..this race is more interesting to me than the KG as it stands.
 
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I can understand people latching on to Irving BJG was certainly sick of looking at his backside as a novice.

With only one defeat that counts in the Supreme he wouldn't be the first novice to find Cheltenham way too much for him.

Forgive him that and you more or less have an unbeaten hurdler in your camp.

But here's the problem.....Sprinter Sacre was a 5 yearold and Binocular a 4 year old when beaten in the Supreme. Both went on to win Championships

My worry is Irving was a 6 year old and found it all too much for him.

Expecting the improvement required from him to win a Champion Hurdle is pie in the sky in my eyes.

Let,s not forget who he couldn't live with in the Supreme..Vautour and he is obviously regarded not as good a hurdler as Faugheen
 
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Fair enough, I for one am not neccesarily expecting Irving to win this then win the CH, but he looked a million dollars at Newcastle last time mate. I have a hunch he may be hitting his maximum potential now rather than March,but that's just my view though and I have nothing against the fav, if he wins well then fair enough. I am looking forward to this edition of the race more so than others. Purple Bay is a horse who interests me as well, but he is clearly up against it.
 
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EC1 said:
i think as a trial its a good one because of this angle...i just don't see Faugheen winning this tbh..but if he did..like you say..he has shown speed and the stamina already in the bag..adds even more relevance to the race..this race is more interesting to me than the KG as it stands.
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Yes, for me this race is every bit as interesting as the King George for the same reasons. Jezki remains the value with the form in the bank, but how many come back and win it twice. Not saying he won't though!

Outside of Jezki and The New One we've got three horses who very likely could finish in the top five (or even top 3!), lining up against each other which is a rarity pre-Festival these days. And we easily could have seen the New One here because if he hadn't run at Cheltenham because Twister isn't one for swerving races. All of which reminds me to start another thread about something else that's bugging me!
 
Can some kind soul point out to me what I'm missing about Irving? Where in his CV is there a snotter's chance in the Champion?

The Fighting Fifth was a very weak affair.

He wasn't going to win the Elite when he came down. He'd have been a decent second but he was only off 148.

He was gubbed out of sight in the only trial that matters, the Supreme.

In the Dovecote he only beat Amore Alato 5 lengths at levels. The latter, nearly a year later couldn't beat Snake Eyes off 137.

What are you guys seeing that I'm not??
 
the thing with Irving is..he's a trial race targetter...he doesn't have to be CH class to win em..those that are CH class in these races..are there using them as trials..so won't be beaten up to beat him

thats what it is i think DO
 
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