Champion Hurdle 2015

Another poor display by The New One........the quicker he switches to a World Hurdle campaign the better. I still think he'll place in the Champion Hurdle as he wouldn't be anywhere near 100% today but win it? I'd be amazed he just takes too long to pick up due to the fact he's running at the wrong trip imo
 
JamesRB said:
that jumping would have to worry you. wouldn't be surprised if he has an injury of some sort.
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Yes agreed - do we put it down to the fact that the horse wasn't happy jumping out of that sort of ground (some really struggle and lose confidence as a result if its loose/heavy). Or is it due to an underlying niggle the horse has so he is constantly jumping right-handed?

If I were NTD, I would be taking the horse home and giving him a complete bone & tendon scan. And if nothing shows then do plenty of schooling (on a sound surface) and go to Cheltenham in the knowledge that better ground is something essential to the horse for him to perform at his best.
 
Tanlic said:
Another poor display by The New One........the quicker he switches to a World Hurdle campaign the better. I still think he'll place in the Champion Hurdle as he wouldn't be anywhere near 100% today but win it? I'd be amazed he just takes too long to pick up due to the fact he's running at the wrong trip imo
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TNO would have as much chance of getting 3 miles as ROR.

Which is slim.
 
I'm always prepared to dismiss an unimpressive run this far ahead of the big race, especially in heavy ground.

Fans of the horse - I'm not really one - shouldn't be put off. If you really think he's the winner, steam in at the better odds.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm always prepared to dismiss an unimpressive run this far ahead of the big race, especially in heavy ground.

Fans of the horse - I'm not really one - shouldn't be put off. If you really think he's the winner, steam in at the better odds.
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Personally I think ante post betting on short priced horses is a mugs game.I would be fairly confident 3/1 will be available on the day.If anyone has last Saturdays RP I would be interested to see the best prices on today's big race.Today it was possible to back Sprinter Sacre at 11/10,Dodging Bullets 7/2,Twinlight 7/1,Somersby 11/1 and Grey Gold 80/1.Powers were offering money back on fallers and Ladbrokes were refunding bets of up to €25 if your horse finished second to SS.Throw in double result and guaranteed prices and you have a situation where punters are betting on seriously advantageous terms.
 
Faugheen odds-on surely that is barking mad short on current evidence . Jezki still looks the most likely winner of the CH usual conditions permitting . When has Faugheen run against all aged company at proper hard 2 mile pace ? His jumping could well come under pressure .
 
Jezki e/w and HF at 14's is the way forward.im ante post on TNO at 5's but there looks a potential injury problem there and he has looked like he has struggled to pick up in his last few starts.Could be in the same mould as Oscar whiskey
 
LUKE said:
Personally I think ante post betting on short priced horses is a mugs game.I would be fairly confident 3/1 will be available on the day.If anyone has last Saturdays RP I would be interested to see the best prices on today's big race.Today it was possible to back Sprinter Sacre at 11/10,Dodging Bullets 7/2,Twinlight 7/1,Somersby 11/1 and Grey Gold 80/1.Powers were offering money back on fallers and Ladbrokes were refunding bets of up to €25 if your horse finished second to SS.Throw in double result and guaranteed prices and you have a situation where punters are betting on seriously advantageous terms.
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You could have backed SS at 3.05 or better last week on the machine.

Can't see where you are coming from

Backing Faugheen at 2/1 for money which you could have done and laying him at evens or less isn't a mugs game.

Much depends on stakes but backing a horse for a small stake at 80 isn't going to make you a bundle of he drops to 20 a teener would make you 30 pounds.

Making that sort of money at short prices is much easier despite the stakes being much higher.

As for the horse in question unless faugheen drops out he's a shockingly bad AP bet at 3/1 for 2 reasons

First off if all stand there ground you will get a better price or the same price on the day.

More importantly the only major change likely to take place before March is Jezki who beat The New One last year

If he were to hack up in the Irish Champion Hurdle his odds would be shorter than The New One's who the bookies would push out slightly.

If the Fly wins nothing much will change........Nothing to gain from backing the New One AP

The same could be said about Sprinter Sacre if SDG comeback goes well.

I said I would never lay him but if I could get matched at 3.35 I'd make a nice profit but without me offering better than 3/1 it's not going to happen. But the way things are looking if SDG comes back SS is going to be 2/1 or 5/2 on the day and I could take the money run and back him on the day......If he had hacked up yesterday he's be 4/11 but he didn't so the oppertinity to making back to lay money on him is all but gone.

In some cases it is a mugs came on others it most certainly isn't
 
Took SOAV again last night at 50/1 but wimped it each-way. I can't recall which firm I took the 33/1 with a couple of months back but I think it might have been win-only and now that I've seen Faugheen...

I also took SOAV at 16/1 (w) for the Betfair Hurdle as he'd really need to win it with his head in his chest if he is a champion hurdler waiting to happen. I'd be concerned about soft going, mind, but Baradari, as I said elsewhere, was yet another to pay SOAV's Ascot form a big compliment at the weekend.
 
DO, Baradari scrambled home in a handicap off a mark of 138. The collateral form with SAOV is worthless, in the context of a Champion Hurdle.
 
In the context of your interpretation of that form, it's actually worse than that since he was off 134. However, I'm interpreting the form differently. Also, read what I wrote again. At no point did I ever say that the Ascot form made him a CH contender.

I backed SOAV in November for the CH not on the basis of that bare form but on what I felt the horse had in reserve and the potential he had to improve on it. I backed him again last night at the bigger price because putting him out to 50/1 strikes me as a gross overreaction to his being given an easy at Kempton and because if he is as good as I thought he might be when I took the 33/1 then he WILL win the Betfair Hurdle and the easier he wins it the more of a contender he becomes.
 
You said that Bardari paid SAOV's Ascot form "a big compliment", and it just doesn't, in my view........and that was me giving you the benefit of 4lbs!! :)

Happy to acknowledge you were talking more about the Betfair Hurdle option, rather than the Champion Hurdle, with SAOV - I was thrown by the additional bet you had at 50's. My apologies.
 
SOAV doesn't need compliments to figure out how good he is. His future was cast in stone when he won at Newbury as a novice and when he won at Ascot hard held it was cemented in.

You must remember Nicky lost his Champion Hurdle hope and they decided that MTOY would be having a go so SOAV wasn't even being thought off as a Champion Hurdle horse.

Set to go the Handicap route he hacked up at Ascot and could have won 10 lengths had Barry pushed the button so what finished behind him means very little.

One things for sure and that is the Handicapper never missed him and hikes him up to 150 which is 1lb higher than My Tent or Yours was when he won the Betfair.

The Handicapper very kindly dropped him a pound I believe which means he will go to the Betfair off the same mark as he did.

If things went to plan and SOAV were to in the Betfair there are 2 certainties 1. He'll go for the Champion Hurdle 2. He won't be 50/1 or anything like it.

He's much better than he showed behind Faugheen, he was never travelling in the tacky ground at any stage and BG, not happy, had no choice but to ease off the pedal.

Wouldn't agree he had an easy as such he did finish very tired. He's had plenty time to recover and as long as it doesn't come up heavy he should run a big race.

Not taking anything way from the horse because one a horse start struggling on a surface just continuing at pace knocks hell out of them.

It's a lot to expect a MTOY type performance but he has been lightly race with this in mind so who knows and Nicky does know what it takes to win the race
 
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