Champion Hurdle 2015

Some horses have the ability to produce a championship performance when it's hard to believe 3 or 4 horses from any era would have beaten them. Rooster Booster in his Champion hurdle is one.

Others prove their championship worthiness by consistency at the very highest level, regardless of winning distances and beaten horses. Hurricane Fly and his 20 something G1 epitomises that perfectly.

Both champions but in very different ways and a "top 10" will not only always be subjectve but ultimately down to what you value most.
 
Frankel said:
Place lay Jezki. Are you fu**ing bonkers Tanlic :blink:
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Tanlic said this on his back now play later thread:

It seems like we all agree on something, that Jeski is the best ew bet, which is a refreshing change.

Clearly losing it Fist :cool: And what is the sudden obsession with Arctic Fire anyway?!
 
Yeah right good buddy I am sure you realise you are taking that out of context and playing mind games but to do so you need a bit more gravy up there to mess with the great Fist's superior brain :lol:...........

Now sit down and listen carefully and watch This will give you a better understanding of things

I was discussing ew betting with Slim (ABOVE) who kindly threw some figures up to show that there was EW value to be had in the race.

There is the possibility that I am wrong about Faugheen and he is no more than a "Flash in the Pan"

If that turns out to be the case there would be no taking Jezki 6/1 and Hurricane Fly of their feet coming down the hill and Jezki would become the most likely winner.

Arctic Fire on the other hand would need Faugheen to do what I believe he will do and that is butter Jezki up to make it easy for him to finish in front of Jezki but he is unlikely to be winning.

There is no sudden obsession with Arctic Fire....If you care to look back 10 days ago I said then he had a good chance of being placed because of the way the race would be run and posted my first 3 as Faugheen The New One and Arctic Fire.

Grassy kindly told me I was friggin nuts WM wouldn't run him.........knows nothing that grasshopper after everything I have taught him:lol:

What I haven't said is at what price I would be prepared to place lay Jezki.

The bookies only need an excuse to cut Jezki's price to take him into the NEWZ and that could come in the form of a win over Hurricane Fly

He would then be something like 1.5 to 1.7 to place depending on whether he or The New One go off 2nd fav then yes I would lay him.
 
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wilsonl said:
Some horses have the ability to produce a championship performance when it's hard to believe 3 or 4 horses from any era would have beaten them. Rooster Booster in his Champion hurdle is one.

I know someone who would argue with that:p

"Istabraq. He was an outstanding hurdler and the speed he had, he was second to none. I would have loved to have ridden him" Richard Johnson
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Aragorn said:
Tanlic said this on his back now play later thread:

It seems like we all agree on something, that Jeski is the best ew bet, which is a refreshing change.

Clearly losing it Fist :cool: And what is the sudden obsession with Arctic Fire anyway?!
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Arctic Fire clearly has a bit to find, though that is/was reflected in his price.
Trying to find one against the top 3 in the market that will run. Pace and ground will suit. Whether he's good enough is debatable, clearly. Always thought he was useful, though he's not always shown it, on the track at least.
 
Tanlic said:
wilsonl said:
Some horses have the ability to produce a championship performance when it's hard to believe 3 or 4 horses from any era would have beaten them. Rooster Booster in his Champion hurdle is one.

I know someone who would argue with that:p

"Istabraq. He was an outstanding hurdler and the speed he had, he was second to none. I would have loved to have ridden him" Richard Johnson
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I said 3 or 4 and maybe Istabraq is one of the other two ;)
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Try and imagine him at his very best lining up against Istabraq Sea Pigeon Monksfield and Night Nurse at their very best and throw in Persian War and Bula just for the fun of it....then Imagine are at the counter in the bookies about to have 5000 quid on Rooster Booster to win.........suddenly you hear a voice from above...."Dont be so fuckin daft" you look up thinking it's God but it's not it's Richard Johnson.:lol:
 
Tanlic said:
"Istabraq. He was an outstanding hurdler and the speed he had, he was second to none. I would have loved to have ridden him" Richard Johnson
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Aye, and Lester Piggot said one week Sir Ivor was the best he ever rode, next week Nijinsky, the next his cell mate.



To RJ, Istabraq would be the best he ever rode against and is undoubtedly one of the very best ever.
 
Tanlic said:
Try and imagine him at his very best lining up against Istabraq Sea Pigeon Monksfield and Night Nurse at their very best and throw in Persian War and Bula just for the fun of it....then Imagine are at the counter in the bookies about to have 5000 quid on Rooster Booster to win.........suddenly you hear a voice from above...."Dont be so fuckin daft" you look up thinking it's God but it's not it's Richard Johnson.:lol:
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Did anyone ever say RB was the best ever? Even on one performance?

Big Buck's posted the odd 3m rating that was higher than almost all the best 2-milers.

This is an anomaly I mentioned a month or so back: that stayers tend to be rated higher than short-distance horses which are inherently faster. You get the odd exception like Sprinter Sacre and on one or two runs Master Minded, but Arkle, Desert Orchid, Kauto Star, Denman, etc were generally higher rated than the two-milers.
 
Surely that can be explained away - Arkle, Desert Orchid and Denman ran in handicaps.

At the time Best Mate was champion, and didn't run in handicaps, he was inferior to Azertyuiop and Well Chief who had proven themselves in them (and Moscow Flyer). Its not Best Mate's fault that it was only Sir Rembrandt, Harbour Pilot and Truckers Tavern that he was beating.

Werent, the exceptions you mention, Sprinter Sacre and Master Minded more talented than the most talented stayers of their years and was recognised as such.
 
That's the point I'm making, HW. Handicaps are by their nature more competitive therefore the form should be treated as more reliable.

In the same way that it isn't HF's fault - or for that matter Istabraq's in a lot of his races - that he only has inferior opposition to beat, it wasn't BM's fault that he only had moderate horses to beat, but he wasn't exactly laughing at them.

You're probably right in your last point, HW, but they were exceptions in the same way that Dayjur was an exception in his era. The difference probably isn't so marked in NH racing as in Flat. I'm struggling to think of sprinters since Dayjur [that I would have] rated in excess of the G1 threshold of 126 whereas chasers better than the 168 equivalent 168 threshold are pretty much ten-a-penny. Hurdlers in that bracket aren't so common.
 
The point I thought you were making was that staying chasers are rated higher than speed chasers (even in handicaps). I see no evidence of the bias from your list above.

If you were saying that those horses who race in handicaps (whether over 2m or 3m) are biased favourably in the ratings, I think there is a sound argument using your list above.
 
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I would not argue with there being a biased. IMO handicap ratings for top class horses like Arkle Flying Bolt, Desert Orchid or whoever can lead to horses being overrated a fair bit.

It certainly did in Arkle's day. As brilliant as he was his performances beating Height of Fashion Brasher etc are simply not as good as Sprinter Sacre beating Sizing Europe or Kauto Star winning the King George by a distance.

Arkle 212 would never have given Kauto Star 191 21lbs and a beating over 3 miles with a rocket tied to his backside.

There's a saying in racing that is regarded as gospel. the lack of weight won't make a slow horse go faster but adding weight can make a fast horse go slower.

The Gallagher Gold Cup at Sandown is said to be Arkle's greatest win ever and it was a handicap....It's a fantastic story him beating Mill House out of sight knocking 16 seconds of the track record.

The truth is Mill House was well past his best and suffered from a bad back. The track record was set by a very ordinary horse and while the record still stands there is no Gallagher Gold Cup now and no race for grade 1 horses at Sandown over the trip it can be compared with. Correct me if I am wrong

The fact Rondetto finished second still makes it a very good performance if we know for sure the Turnell horse was at his best but it does not compare with Arkle's demolition job of Mill House when the big horse was at his peak and Arkle won by 30 lengths.

I maintain it is much tougher to beat a horse like Denman of levels at the top of his game eg by 30 lengths than it is beating some monkey getting 3 stone off you by a length.

I certainly wouldn't put Sprinter Sacre's demolition job of Sizing Europe in the QMCC 20lbs behind Arkle's Gold Cup win.

Sometimes when a horse has a handicap mark that is too high meets something superior it just gets plain silly
Voy Por Ustedes had won what imo was the worst QMCC I ever saw. His form over 2 miles was no where near deserving the rating he had and when master Minded ate him alive in the next QMCC he received a rating higher than both Kauto Star and Denman which seemed completely nuts.

Maybe some would argue Sprinter Scare being higher rated than Kauto Star is nuts too

I can never understand why chasers get much higher ratings than hurdlers. The Champion Hurdle overall is the more popular race. There are times like The Kauto Star Denman years when the Gold Cup create massive interest but a Gold Cup like this years doesn't hold a candle to the interest shown in the Champion Hurdle......check out the posts on both on this forum.

Year after year the Champion Hurdle creates loads of interest yet the winners like Istabraq never seem to get the ratings they deserve.

That said what does it matter if Night Nurse is rated 182 and Arkle is rated 212 it is after all chasing and hurdling are separate games
 
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Nigel Twiston-Davies intends to run The New One in the reopened Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock on Saturday
 
Seven in Champion Hurdle Trial The New One, Bertimont, Desert Cry, Got The Nac, Strongpoint, Swaledale Lad and Trucking Along
 
To be fair to NTD, he is at least putting TNO out there to be opposed.........but that is a desperate field, and the race is really unworthy of the name 'Champion Hurdle Trial' if that's as good a mob as they can muster.
 
Tanlic said:
I would not argue with there being a biased. IMO handicap ratings for top class horses like Arkle Flying Bolt, Desert Orchid or whoever can lead to horses being overrated a fair bit.

It certainly did in Arkle's day. As brilliant as he was his performances beating Height of Fashion Brasher etc are simply not as good as Sprinter Sacre beating Sizing Europe or Kauto Star winning the King George by a distance.

Arkle 212 would never have given Kauto Star 191 21lbs and a beating over 3 miles with a rocket tied to his backside.

There's a saying in racing that is regarded as gospel. the lack of weight won't make a slow horse go faster but adding weight can make a fast horse go slower.

The Gallagher Gold Cup at Sandown is said to be Arkle's greatest win ever and it was a handicap....It's a fantastic story him beating Mill House out of sight knocking 16 seconds of the track record.

The truth is Mill House was well past his best and suffered from a bad back. The track record was set by a very ordinary horse and while the record still stands there is no Gallagher Gold Cup now and no race for grade 1 horses at Sandown over the trip it can be compared with. Correct me if I am wrong

The fact Rondetto finished second still makes it a very good performance if we know for sure the Turnell horse was at his best but it does not compare with Arkle's demolition job of Mill House when the big horse was at his peak and Arkle won by 30 lengths
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Both Rondetto and Mill House (past his best) broke the previous track record that day, a record set by Mill House himself no less, but probably set when he was at his best.
The Sandown course and fences haven't changed much over the years and nor has the clock.
Arkle would have jumped every fence a length better than Kauto. Arkles rating of 212 was only about 14Lbs better than kauto's best ever performance. At level weights Arkle would have had to much eland for Kauto, who arguably beat horses past their best when he won the Gold cup.

The weight assigned to all horses is equall with its relevance to what it is meant to achieve (slow them down) but all horses have different abilities to carry that weight, which in turn means they dont slow equally.

A pony sized horse with equall ability to that of a larger built animal will surely slow up before the latter with the addition of weight increments.
 
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Would Arctic Fire not be best suited to a run in the County Hurdle, after all he has finished under 2 lengths behind horses rated in excess of 15 lengths superior. He would surely be well in even off top weight.
 
Maxbet said:
Would Arctic Fire not be best suited to a run in the County Hurdle, after all he has finished under 2 lengths behind horses rated in excess of 15 lengths superior. He would surely be well in even off top weight.
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Won't that all depend on how the UK handicapper assess that form? Arctic Fire could find himself in the 160s for that race and could end up trying to give over a stone to something else which is a 160 in disguise.
 
Even if the handicapper takes a pessimistic view of the Ryanair Hurdle form, he won't want to look like a plum either, and I'd be amazed if Arctic Fire is allocated anything less than about 158. On that basis, I doubt Mullins would be inclined to run him, and even if he did, he'd be facing a very tough-race for one so inexperienced.

I hadn't realised until earlier that the Entries for the Betfair Hurdle were out, but sill save those thoughts for another thread.
 
Mullins County runner hasn't been out yet this season.
Arctic Fire won't be running in it.
 
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