Champion Hurdle 2015

HawkWing said:
I understand what happened last year, but isnt everyone forgetting the form in front of them this year. I dont think its a given that Jezki finishes in front of Hurricane Fly at Cheltenham. The New One hasnt impressed this year, and I think the argument that he is the main danger to Faugheen is one that could be made. To my eye he has been better this year than last year. Thought Jezki/McCoy was waiting for HF to challenge, before kicking, but he couldnt go with him when pressure was applied. Stats/Age/etc of course can be highlighted but not sure why he is being underestimated for the CH
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HF is always going to do Jezki for speed at the pace Irish gd1's are run (as predicted at the start of the season). The CH is a different kettle of fish altogether) and I'll take up knitting if positions aren't reversed there (and you and Tanlic can have the first 2 pairs of socks).
 
Tanlic said:
These Jezki fans that think this horse can win at Cheltenham are kidding themselves. He's good but with a horse like Faugheen making the running he'll be taken of his feet and I can't see him reversing the form with either Hurricane Fly or Artic Fire.
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Fans? This isn't a football forum, he's the value play. And Artic Fire is this year's Captain Cee Bee, he'd be better off in the County.
 
Frankel said:
It's all if my auntie had bollocks :ninja:

Jezki will be in the 3 imo. He's stonking value.

Let's not bring that Gold Cup up again. Another can of worms all together.
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Nothing is certain in racing. You say he's stonking value but every bookie in the land is out to get him and have been since he won last year.

He's the biggest IF in the race....he has won nothing all season but IF he gets better ground in March and IF he improves for the spring sun shining on his ass and IF Faugheen is not the best since Istabraq
and IF Hurricane Fly doesn't finishing front of him yet again.how many IF's do you want?

I maintain he won a good Champion Hurdle last season that turned out to be a very ordinary one due to his 3 main rivals for various reason not being involved in the finish.

Hurricane Fly certainly was not at his best and fell away tamely Our Conor was sadly killed and The New One was in another race with himself.

In the end he struggle to beat a horse who has never won a fight in his life. Up to something, The New One, Champagne Fever all taking his scalp in a tight finish.

Quite frankly he does not posses enough toe to win a good champion hurdle and that is why he is the price he is or every bookie in the country has it wrong.
 
EC1 said:
the ground level view of them coming to the last was stunning..pity Jezki stumbled as they would have been hammer and tongues from the last..same result though
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The only hammering that would have gone on would have been the Fly hammering Jezki into the ground. He was running all over the top of Jezki approchaing the last....take away the last Hurdle at which Ruby had to check at and he would have won by a couple of lengths.
 
reet hard said:
That isn't what I wrote.
I believe ROR will stay 3m standing on his head, and this will be the 2nd or 3rd season he's been mooted as a World Hurdle possible. However, he does have a breathing problem and connections have minded him carefully for almost as long (could have won his last 2 a lot further, had he been given his head), so it's up to them whether he actually takes his chance. Neither they, I, nor you, know if his problem would manifest over the longer trip, but there's certainly no evidence in his form to suggest it would, and - without it - would be a real danger to them all.
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So if/when he paddles home, it will be down to his breathing then. :D
 
reet hard said:
HF is always going to do Jezki for speed at the pace Irish gd1's are run (as predicted at the start of the season). The CH is a different kettle of fish altogether) and I'll take up knitting if positions aren't reversed there (and you and Tanlic can have the first 2 pairs of socks).
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I think this is a great piece of analysis, if only it was backed by evidence. Yes, Jezki could be a Cheltenham horse that is better on better ground. like last year. It could also be that Hurricane Fly doesnt travel well. However was is certain is that yesterday, Hurricane Fly was flat out down the back straight at Leopardstown. Ruby was worried, and has said so since. The idea that it was obvious HF would do Jezki "for speed" doesn't stack up. He didnt do him for speed yesterday. Hurricane Fly is in better form this year. Whether that makes any difference in March I dont know. Its most likely that he will get tapped for toe at the top of the hill (as had happened when he won one of the CHs) and the leaders not come back. But I think its a four horse race, not three, as many seem to be saying.

Forget about socks, if you want to give odds, let me know.
 
HawkWing said:
I think this is a great piece of analysis, if only it was backed by evidence. Yes, Jezki could be a Cheltenham horse that is better on better ground. like last year. It could also be that Hurricane Fly doesnt travel well. However was is certain is that yesterday, Hurricane Fly was flat out down the back straight at Leopardstown. Ruby was worried, and has said so since. The idea that it was obvious HF would do Jezki "for speed" doesn't stack up. He didnt do him for speed yesterday. Hurricane Fly is in better form this year. Whether that makes any difference in March I dont know. Its most likely that he will get tapped for toe at the top of the hill (as had happened when he won one of the CHs) and the leaders not come back. But I think its a four horse race, not three, as many seem to be saying.

Forget about socks, if you want to give odds, let me know.
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Much as I love the Fly, I agree with this. He is also not the same horse at Cheltenham as he is at Leopardstown. He is a very very good horse at Cheltenham, but IMO his wins there have come despite the track rather than because of it. He has also had the harder races than Jezki, in as much as he has had to exert more effort to beat him and Ruby's comments after yesterday's race show, I think, that it was harder work to get on terms than he was expecting.

I think with Faugheen in the stable, taking the Fly to Cheltenham on the back of two wins over the reigning champion hurdler is almost a bonus for WPM. I think these last two Grade 1s have been as much outright targets in themselves for Hurricane Fly - get the G1 record, maintain his record at the track - as the CH itself whereas I think they've never really been anything other than prep race "nice to haves" for Jezki and the latter was never going to be bottomed to win them or even ridden as aggressively as Ruby had to ride HF yesterday.
 
Rock On Ruby is an admirable type. If you're right in saying that they feel they need to look after him then it has to be a huge negative in the context of a strongly run World Hurdle. My own figures say ROR is running just below his career peak - his CH - these days and hasn't improved for the step up to 2.5m. He's merely proved equally effective at the trip but is maybe up against lesser opponents at it. Saphir Du Rheu, to name but one, already has a higher rating. I can't recall my figure for More Of That but it must be up there too and I'm deeply curious when they decide to keep a horse out of the UK for a while ahead of a big race so At Fishers Cross might return with renewed vigour, in much the same way that Binocular did. Throw in his advancing years and I'd be surprised if Rock On Ruby makes the frame.
 
SDR looked in good order at the weekend, but still comes out the race 3-4lbs worse than Reve De Sivola, and wouldn't exactly be stuck-on to confirm the placings next time (imo).

Basically, in the absence of Annie Power - and assuming MOT isn't the same horse this season - the race doesn't look like it will take a lot of winning. I'm not saying RoR can take advantage of this, but there are worse approaches in an open race, than siding with a horse who has a history of performing well at the track, is almost certain to give his running, and who goes into the meeting in good form generally.

If MOT recovers his form, then he seems a good-thing to me, but it's a reasonably big "if", given how poorly he performed is his sole outing this season. Otherwise, it's a poor-looking renewal, and some horses might not actually need to 'stay' particularly well, in order to get involved in the finish.

Edit: Shouldn't all this be in the World Hurdle thread anyway??
 
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Grasshopper said:
SDR looked in good order at the weekend, but still comes out the race 3-4lbs worse than Reve De Sivola, and wouldn't exactly be stuck-on to confirm the placings next time (imo).
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On Saturday's form, pound-for-pound, of course you're right but was the result ever in doubt? I don't imagine SDR would have been 100% there given his recent misfortunes but even if he was it looked to me like he could have done a fair bit more if he'd needed to.

I wouldn't read anything into MOT's defeat no matter how disappointing it seemed at face value. That's just O'Neill's way.
 
Desert Orchid said:
On Saturday's form, pound-for-pound, of course you're right but was the result ever in doubt? I don't imagine SDR would have been 100% there given his recent misfortunes but even if he was it looked to me like he could have done a fair bit more if he'd needed to.

I wouldn't read anything into MOT's defeat no matter how disappointing it seemed at face value. That's just O'Neill's way.
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Dunno, DO.......SDR may well have won with a bit in hand, but it was only a bit, I suspect, and I wouldn't want to take too short a price about him confirming the form (though, he'd probably just about the one you want to back in a match).

The overall point still stand though. Unless MOT comes back, they're none of them particularly inspiring, and it would be hasty to rule-out any of those in the first half-dozen or so in the market.

I also wish I had you're faith in Jonjo!
 
Here's good bet at Cheltenham IMO

I'm not going to pull up anyone in particular and I don't fancy scouring through the threads to find out who said it but this Hurricane Fly is not suited by Cheltenham is complete bollocks....even if it was me that said it it's nonsense.

In case it slipped past anyone Hurricane Fly is a dual winner of the Champion Hurdle and won both by clear daylight.

He has lost there twice but last year you have to forgive him as everything that could have went wrong did and he never looked a shadow of himself at Punchestown when Jezki trounced him.

There a damn sight more chance he wasn't 100% and the way the race panned out is to blame for his defeat last year than the course was.

You simply don't win at Cheltenham if you can't handle the course.

I am totally against Jezki and give him no chance and for me the Champ should be shorter than he is in the betting

The Fly took time to get going on Sunday and Jezki looked all over the winner but when the Fly picked up he was absolutely flying and picked up Jezki with ease.

I doubt if it will be any different at Cheltenham..........Jezki fans will argue saying he's better in the spring but his 2012 form says the exact opposite unless you think beating Ted Veale is something to write home about.

They say he is better on faster ground....maybe but what's to say he's going to get it?

They seem to forget Hurricane Fly's first win in the race came on good ground.

Jezki looked like a million dollars on Sunday the Fly drifted as if today was going to be Jezki's yet the Fly in the end mowed him down like he has been doing all season a and if anything would have beaten him easier even if Jezki hadn't stumbled at the last. 6 strides before the last he was about to Fly past him until Ruby had to put him right to get the last spot on.

I think it's time Jezki fans realised that Hurricane Fly is the better horse anywhere any time and there must be a very good chance the Fly will finish in front of him yet again in March



If they both turn up there's bound to be match betting between the 2 and I for one will be lumping on the Fly to come out on top.

The Fly will probably be as good a price to finish in front of Jezki as Faugheen will be to win the race.
 
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Tanlic said:
You simply don't win at Cheltenham if you can't handle the course.
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Desert Orchid did, and it isn't a case of not handling the track.

Some horses have such a class advantage they can win there without appreciating the place. Kauto and Hurricane Fly are in that group and Sil Conti might be as well if his class can get him through in six weeks.
 
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I've come to the conclusion that a combination of advancing years and quicker ground is the issue for Hurricane Fly when it comes to the Champion Hurdle. Certainly, I believe that is what found him out last season.

The 2012 race was an aberration, and I genuinely believe he would have won it, if he'd had his usual preparation. However, he didn't re-appear until the ICH that season, and I don't believe he was at concert-pitch at the Festival, because his profile has always been one of improvement-with-racing each season. Also, Walsh probably rode him with too much confidence, given he'd sauntered all over them in the ICH on very Soft ground.

Hurricane Fly could get away with running on quicker ground in his younger days, but he needs it to be genuinely Soft in March, if he has to have any chance of winning the Champion Hurdle. He has so much class and guts, that it's not beyond him placing on quicker going, though I'm not convinced he would finish ahead of Jezki in that scenario, I have to say.
 
Advancing years Grassy yes, I don't see me going down the fast waterslide in Dubai waterpark this half term. Think is going to be Lanzarote this year
 
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