Champion Hurdle 2015

Roddy Owen said:
Advancing years Grassy yes, I don't see me going down the fast waterslide in Dubai waterpark this half term. Think is going to be Lanzarote this year
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Old Father Time catching-up with yet another legend? It's enough to make a grown-man weep.

:lol:
 
Yesterday when I looked it was 98.6% the front 4 in the Champion Hurdle across oddschecker. There really isn't much scope for horses to lengthen in price on the day unless one shortens a few points.

A 95% book on the front 5 at the moment would look like this:

11/8 Faugheen
3/1 The New One
6/1 Jezki
10/1 Hurricane Fly
20/1 Artic Fire

I think this is close to what they willbe to on the day not including new account and max bet €10 special offers.
 
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In think they'll want to get after Faugheen, and I can see him starting as big as 7/4 on the day. He is essentially still unproven in the top-rank, and it's logical they will try and get him turned-over. It's not their style to go running-scared half-way through Tuesday, so even if Douvan and UDS both win, I reckon they will go aggressive against Faugheen, with a view to making-up the losses Weds-Fri if he obliges too.
 
Can't see it Grassy assuming Ruby is in the saddle. With the Fly being deserted any doubt the punters had about Faugheen's ability will be brushed aside and the Irish money will pour on.

You may remember they pushed Hurricane Fly out to 7/2 even 4/1 was seen and it lasted about 2 minutes and he was hammered

You may see 7/4 on the day but the chances of it lasting will be short lived imo

The New One is far more likely to be their target. He's ridiculously short at 3/1 and I reckon they'll be happy to push him out to attract money in an attempt to reduce liability.
 
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will get at least 6/4 on the morning of the race i reckon. bookmakers are pretty good at competing with one another during the festival. some horses you just know they won't get too bullish with but faugheen seems ripe for one they'll try and attack imo.

like last year with sire de grugy. they were falling over themselves to offer best price and he ended up being way bigger than he has been in the leadup to the day.
 
Sign Of A Victory has a choice of two engagements this weekend, a Listed race at Sandown on Saturday and the Scottish County at Musselburgh on Sunday. I imagine they'll let the going/weather decide whether he takes up either.
 
Every chance the decision will be made by Tanquery/Hendricks rather than Going/Weather. :blink:

Ground at Musselburgh is likely to be bang-on Good-to-Soft, I'd say....maybe even a little quicker than that, as we've had next to no rain for over a week, and the place dries-out rapid.
 
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It's very much down to ground with him Grassy

NJH will run him wherever he thinks the best ground is and if that means missing the Betfair so be it. Newbury could be off end up heavy but good going looks highly unlikely.

He absolutely hated the ground at Kempton which was apparently was drying out and became very tacky.

He also has Dalawan entered at Sandown who can go on anything so he's serious about heading north if that's where the best ground is....unless of course it's white ground which he hates:lol:
 
Euronymous said:
Desert Orchid did, and it isn't a case of not handling the track.

Some horses have such a class advantage they can win there without appreciating the place. Kauto and Hurricane Fly are in that group and Sil Conti might be as well if his class can get him through in six weeks.
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You got me confused here? Desert Orchid won a Gold Cup and wasn't he placed in 2 others..what on earth makes you think he didn't handle the track?
 
Not sure of the confusion. Desert Orchid would have been likely to beat Yahoo, Nortons Coin by a good distance, giving weight, at Sandown or Kempton.
 
Well pray tell what was it Desert Orchid din't like about Cheltenham?

He jumped for fun ears pricked all the way never touched a twig and despite getting tired in very heavy ground he stormed up the hill to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Looked like he hated the place did he?

Actually he did take Yahoo on again at Aintree giving him weight when Yahoo in the best form of his life easily won the Martell..Dessie fell and Yahoo then went wrong in the Whitbread and was never the same horse again so really I can't answer your question.

As far as his defeat by Norton Coin goes part of the blame may have lay with David Elsworth who ran him twice shortly before the race but the real problem was the fast ground. Dessie getting on in years needed some cut to be at his best it was nothing to do with the course. He ran 2 or 3 times on faster ground because his trainer was a greedy sod and was beaten every time.

You wanna get picky Norton Coin beat dessie of levels when they finished 2nd and 3rd in the Peterborough was it? Dessie worst performances were certainly not at Cheltenham
 
Unfortunately he's dead so I can't ask him but if you genuinely think he was as suited to Cheltenham as he was to park courses then clearly I'm not going to change your opinion and the remark was meant mainly in humour - though maybe I didn't use enough smilies - but if you want to treat is as snide then that's your prerogative.

and sticking one's nose in - in a public forum?. Okay.
 
Tanlic said:
Dessie worst performances were certainly not at Cheltenham
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Thats very different to what is being said. Dessie's best performances, as judged by professional and amateur handicappers, were not at Cheltenham. His best performance at Cheltenham was conservatively a stone to a stone and a half less that what he achieved elsewhere. It is not controversial to say that Desert Orchid didn't run to his best at Cheltenham.
 
The owner, the trainer, and all three of his jockey's agreed that Desert Orchid was routinely miles below his best at Cheltenham. As has been said already, that he was able to win a Gold Cup and go close in other Festival races, was testament to his class - it didn't mean he 'acted' as well there as he did at other courses.
 
Yahoo was a 160 heavy-ground slogger. Dessie was a 185 beast around most courses but was never anywhere near that at Cheltenham.

Brigadier Gerard was a 144 beast on most tracks and surfaces yet he only scraped home by short margins in one or two races in heavy. He was good enough to win in it, recording figures in the 120s, but nowhere near his best. The only reason Dessie won that Gold Cup was because Yahoo was only a 160 opponent. Had there been a 170+ heavy ground specialist running that day Dessie would have been pulled up.
 
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Given DO ran at every Cheltenham Festival 1984 to 1991 and won once says it all.
That Simon Sherwood won there on him says it all too.
9 out of 10 maybe aint Hurricane Fly Leopardstown form but it is better than any jockey got on Dessie.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yahoo was a 160 heavy-ground slogger. Dessie was a 185 beast around most courses but was never anywhere near that at Cheltenham.

Brigadier Gerard was a 144 beast on most tracks and surfaces yet he only scraped home by short margins in one or two races in heavy. He was good enough to win in it, recording figures in the 120s, but nowhere near his best. The only reason Dessie won that Gold Cup was because Yahoo was only a 160 opponent. Had there been a 170+ heavy ground specialist running that day Dessie would have been pulled up.
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Like Ten Plus perhaps.
 
i am amazed anyone is asking the question. He routinely jumped to the right there and lost loads of ground. I can think of few horses that were so uncomfortable there
 
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