Champion Hurdle 2015

As much as I love HF he will not be winning this again. Faugheen has absolutely obliterated everything he's taken on, mostly without breaking sweat. The only slight negatives are what exactly has he beaten and that his hurdling technique isn't the greatest.

The New One is easy to knock but I can't see him out of the first two. Will he get outpaced at some point though? On watching his Neptune win he was caught flat footed for a few strides and although he was hampered in this last year he was back with them without using up too much energy.
 
I am not disagreeing with you Bear because that is how I see the outcome and I can even see Jezki being unplaced but I also think to say Hurricane Fly has no chance is like saying great comebacks never take place.

Let's imagine for one minute Faugheen is over rated, doubtful but possible, and the ground turns out to be soft which it might well could do being tun so early in the month.

What then? He's 11 years young and no horse in the race would appreciate an easy surface more than him and he's been more impressive this year than last

We could all be making the mistake of thinking his downfall last year was Cheltenham but I reckon his unbelievably easy defeat by Jeski knocks that on the head a bit and he simply wasn't at his best

As I say I agree the most likely outcome is 1. Faugheen 2.The New One but no way can I agree with a statement like "He will not be winning this again" not for a horse who has stuffed a Champion Hurdler 3 times out of 4 this season
 
Let me start out by saying Hurricane Fly is one of the best 2 mile hurdlers I've ever seen, maybe just behind Istabraq. Injuries and bad tactics (IMO) has meant he's only won 2 CH's when he should have won a couple more.
The negatives are just too many this time around. He's 11 for a start and Sea Pigeon was the last to win at that age. However the biggest factor against him is that he's a good few pounds off his best at Cheltenham. He's also very unlikely to have Ruby on board and has looked more and more susceptible to being outpaced this year.

He hoovers up the Irish grade 1's every single year but the blips in his form are when he crosses the Irish Sea. Even if something went wrong with Faugheen & The New One I still have Jezki finishing ahead of HF.

I am finding it difficult to weigh up Faugheen though. It doesn't help that he's beaten very little this season and we haven't seen the 2nd and 3rd from the Neptune. Visually he looks an absolute beast.
 
I reckon you must be in your 30's bear if Hurricane Fly and Istabraq are the best you have seen.

The Golden Years involving Sea Pigeon Monksfield and Night Nurse were something else and go back Further to Persian War Bul and Comedy of Errors era and like me you won't have aclue who reallywas the best.............Sometimes I think it may have been Bula who ran up win after win and dethroned Persian War who arguably ran close to his best. Next day I might say it was Night Nurse

Loved Istabraq easiest winner of the Champion Hurdle I ever saw and maybe he was best (very likely) but never ever would I hang my coat anywhere near Hurricane Fly......

That aside this CH definitely revolves round Faugheen and Hurricane Fly and Jezki will suffer badly because of their style of running if he is as good as the betting suggests.

I think The Fly is the tougher of the two and is the more likely of the two to keep going when all is lost.........Jezki I will be place laying but I def will not be place laying the Fly.
 
Well at least you have seen one of the greats.Treasure it mate horses like Istabraq come once in a lifetime....I have waited over 40 years to a chaser that impressed me like Arkle did....so you have to excuse my biased if anyone dare say the wrong word about my pal in my avatar.

Cherish every moment you have horses like Hurricane Fly in your life. It's hard to imagine any horse wil lrepeat what he has done in Ireland for how many seasons now?. Add to that 2 maybe even 3 Champion Hurdles and believe me you may never see the likes of him again
 
Grass's previously stated anaylisis (correct me if I'm wrong) about Faugheen looks spot on to me.

Priced up like he has already won a Champion Hurdle, imo. Absoloutely nothing against the horse but he has to be taken on.

I couldn't back Jezki. I know the arguments about him improving for Cheltenham that exist, and I give those opinions some weight, but I am looking to back against Faugheen with a more genuine type in The New One.

I'm in no hurry, but I've decided I'll be backing The New One, unless I see something to change my mind.
 
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marble said:
I'm in no hurry, but I've decided I'll be backing The New One, unless I see something to change my mind.
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I'd watch its last run again...thats enough alone to change anyone's mind.

The only way TNO will a CH is if they transfer all the CH runners to the Stayers Hurdle and drag all the stayers hurdlers into the CH..will probably hose up then
 
"He has got seven weeks on Tuesday until the big one." - Nigel Twiston Davies

Everything said by jockey and trainer after Haydock (including the above), indicated they felt it wasn't exactly a sign of The New One's demise, EC1.

As for your others comments, sensationalist and witty...yes, but not grounded in terms of a fair analysis of TNO's chance.
 
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marble said:
"He has got seven weeks on Tuesday until the big one." - Nigel Twiston Davies

Everything said by jockey and trainer afterwards (including the above), indicated they felt it wasn't exactly a sign of The New One's demise, EC1.

As for your others comments, sensationalist and witty...yes, but not grounded in terms of a fair analysis of TNO's chance.
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over the last year..i've probably written a book of analysis on here about TNO..i ain't doing no more

here is how it works though...you mention a horse won't be suited to a race...horse wins race...all those that disagreed take p1ss for 3 months..or longer

you mention a horse won't be suited to a race...horse loses..all those that disagreed make any excuse except you got it right

the result is no matter if horse wins or loses...that you have really wasted your time mentioning it in the first place

in the case of TNO i'm balls deep in saying it won't win..but i'll guarantee..the above scenarios will play out after the race
 
Ec1, i don't get really get involved on the in-depth anaylsis of this race as a few on here do because I'm a simpleton and don't usually have great insight to share. I do appreciate your thoughts though...

I'm just stating here that all things considered, I'm happy to back The New One this year. I hope you respect that, and I respect your right to disagree and I'll not take the **** if I get it right and you don't :) :)
 
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marble said:
Ec1, i don't get really get involved on the in-depth anaylsis of this race as a few on here do because I'm a simpleton and don't usually have great insight to share. I do appreciate your thoughts though...

I'm just stating here that all things considered, I'm happy to back The New One this year. I hope you respect that, and I respect your right to disagree and I'll not take the **** if I get it right and you don't :) :)
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:D

it won't bother me either way Marb..whatever wins wins.

i'll take my medicine if and when needed...i'm confident it won't be needed though..he says:)
 
EC1 said:
I'd watch its last run again...thats enough alone to change anyone's mind.

The only way TNO will a CH is if they transfer all the CH runners to the Stayers Hurdle and drag all the stayers hurdlers into the CH..will probably hose up then
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I remember a certain Rooster Booster scrambling home in his prep run prior to demolishing Rhinestone Cowboy et al.
 
It's possible TNO could come on a tonne for the last run because Twisters left lots to work on. It's also possible the horse is too slow to win a champion hurdle and/or has some kind of physical niggle (back?) which caused him to jump out to one side last time.

Given you need to be 100% in theses big races there will be no hiding place. I am a fan of the horse but I couldn't back him for this.


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TNO's marked tendency to jump to the right and his lack of real acceleration will, as EC points out, be his undoing IMHO.

Having watched last years CH a good few times recently I don't think he would have won even if he hadn't been hampered.

The only way he'll win it is if they force the pace with him and let him go a long way out. His jumping was bad at the third and second last hurdles last year though and I'd still be worried.

Above all though, I now really want the fly to win. I haven't backed him but he is such a tough little b&gger who, much like Kauto, keeps proving people wrong and it would be incredible if he won it.
 
Surely it's all about tactics this year.

As far as TNO is concerned it's all about him either hitting a flat spot and getting outpaced at the wrong time or not.

What makes Cheltenham so different is those undulations.

One minute you are going at an even pace the next you have gone from travelling uphill to downhill and suddenly there's a change of gear.
Get too far back, you are still climbing while others are descending and you have lost 3 or 4 lengths before you know it and the only chance you have is if the others stop when hitting the rising ground

If TNO gets motoring soon enough and is bang up their backsides as they turn for home there aren't many, if any that will come up the hill better.

You could hardly make him 2nd fav for the race on his wins this season but it's a no brainer that the most likely results are :-

Either Faugheen is just too quick for them all and gets the lot of them at it before the 2nd last and doesn't stop or he starts to wilt the pace suddenly slows
and The New One is allowed just enough time to get into top gear.

Once in top gear we have already seen how much of a power packed finish he can muster up and if they can't shake him off then they are all in big trouble.

The chances of it going any other way are very slim IMO and obviously the bookies are thinking the same way.

No matter how you want to cut it Jezki has been disappointing this year. They must have expected to have beaten Hurricane Fly at least twice after the way Jezki kicked him into touch last April. Jezki fans keep harping on about him being better on better ground which there's no guarantee they will get and how suited to the course he is....The truth is Jezki has run at Cheltenham 3 times and lost there twice himself and the horse he beat last season is not the most resolute of finishers The race itself was a huge disappointment we lost Our Conor, The New One was badly hampered and Hurricane Fly the hot fav ran a stinker by his standards

Jezki's only defeat in 8 races over a period of 14 months came at Cheltenham and the course suits him?

He might get the better of Hurricane Fly again but not because the course suits him . If he does it will be because the course doesn't suit Hurricane Fly so much not because it's going to turn Jezki into some sort of wonder horse which he clearly is not.
 
marble said:
Grass's previously stated anaylisis (correct me if I'm wrong) about Faugheen looks spot on to me.

Priced up like he has already won a Champion Hurdle, imo. Absoloutely nothing against the horse but he has to be taken on.

I couldn't back Jezki. I know the arguments about him improving for Cheltenham that exist, and I give those opinions some weight, but I am looking to back against Faugheen with a more genuine type in The New One.

I'm in no hurry, but I've decided I'll be backing The New One, unless I see something to change my mind.
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Jezki needs Barry...i won't be backing him without him. I'm one of the view that would rather Fly didn't go. Love the horse but i don't want him struggling here again. Faugheen should gallop all over them
 
That's the general Idea Digger but what if Faugheen can't do that and Willie doesn't send Hurricane Fly? He'd feel pretty damn stupid if Faugheen collapsed in a heap and the horse he has beaten 3 times went on and won it.

Make no mistake Hurricane Fly has as good a chance of winning as anything if the race goes his way.

Don't forget when Overturn and Rock on Ruby combined did something like we expect from Faugheen both Hurricane Fly and Binocular failed to get a blow in.

The following year with no Overturn and Rock on Ruby attempted to do the same thing by himself Hurricane Fly was the one who took advantage of it and won pretty easily.

Personally I don't believe for one minute Hurricane Fly was at his best in last years race. With the departure of Our Conor we were left with Captain Cee Bee making the running accompanied by Hurricane Fly. Perhaps seeing too much daylight to soon and unnoticed he was racing within himself expending valuable energry or not who knows but he certainly never found what what we have grown to expect.

Willie Mullins called his two defeats last season middling runs indicating he thought he wasn't right.

I have no doubt Hurricane Fly won't embarrass himself by being tailed off and if he is beaten it won't be badly.....If he gets placed when he walks into the enclosure they lift the roof off the stands and he'll get a bigger cheer than the winner.If he wins expect your TV set to explode the roar will be so loud.

Not send him after what he's done recently? you must be mad:)
 
Digger said:
Jezki needs Barry...i won't be backing him without him. I'm one of the view that would rather Fly didn't go. Love the horse but i don't want him struggling here again. Faugheen should gallop all over them
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In four runs at Cheltenham, Hurricane Fly has won two Champion Hurdles, been placed in another, and chinned for a place in another.

Stick your "struggles" right up your arse, you tit!!
 
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From an article in today's Irish Times by Brian O'Connor:

The consensus that Hurricane Fly has never shown his best form at Cheltenham doesn’t appear to be backed up by hard fact as the Anglo-Irish handicappers continue to rate the legendary horse’s 2013 Champion Hurdle victory as his greatest ever performance.
Hurricane Fly’s two and a half length defeat of Rock On Ruby two years ago earned him an official mark of 175, the peak rating of his illustrious career, and one which apparently puts the lie to the theory which suggests he has never shown his best at Cheltenham.

“He has run four times in the Champion Hurdle, won twice, and finished third and fourth: that to me isn’t the form of a horse that doesn’t like Cheltenham,” Ireland’s senior National Hunt handicapper Noel O’Brien said. “In fact the handicappers in both Ireland and Britain agreed that his win in 2013 merited getting the highest rating of his career – 175.”

That perspective could put a different light on current Champion Hurdle betting which sees Willie Mullins’s veteran superstar available at 8-1 for a third title, only fourth in the market behind his younger stable companion Faugheen, the top English hope, The New One, and Jezki, who ‘the Fly’ has beaten three times already this season.
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Hurricane Fly’s current 169 rating is 6lbs below that 2013 peak but O’Brien points out it still makes the 11-year-old the highest rated hurdling performer this season.
“I don’t think anyone would argue he is quite as good as he was, but 169 is still the best mark we have seen this season. Both Jezki and Faugheen are on 168.

“Handicappers tend to look at things differently and Faugheen is a very exciting horse with huge potential. Faugheen is the cover, if you like, but Hurricane Fly has the form in the book and deserves a higher rating at this point in time.

“Faugheen beat a very high class handicapper in Purple Bay at Kempton at Christmas. Purple Bay ran off 153 in a Galway Hurdle last summer and got beaten seven and a half lengths by Thomas Edison. He is very talented. But I would take the view that Hurricane Fly beating the reigning Champion Hurdler, Jezki, is better form, at the moment,” O’Brien said.
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Grey said:
From an article in today's Irish Times by Brian O'Connor:
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if we say that HF is near on as good as ever..then IF Ruby doesn't ride him in the CH..it will mean that Faugheen isn't just a little bit bit better than HF ..it will mean he has a lot in hand....because if it was borderline then Ruby would opt for HF..he would hardly not ride HF if it were a toss up between them in his mind. If Ruby rides the fav then it must point to him being a 175 horse minimum to get him off of HF.
 
I'm not sure how much could be read into Ruby's choice of mount, EC1. His track record in this regard, I would say, is to choose the owner rather than the horse.
 
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