Champion Hurdle

Sizing went out like a light. Something will show up. We know he handles the course, handles the hill and can handle Osana. A breaker? Or was the talk of stable form true?

Either way, send him over a fence.
 
Top of the hill I was thinking it'll take a catastrophe for him not to win it.

Cue catastrophe.
 
Yes, well, we should have listened to the info from the Irish Preview where it was said the horses were stopping on the gallops like that, and De B feared a virus. Just hope it is virus and not a bleed, or his heart - do so want to see him over fences next season!
 
SE was running all over them...something drastically wrong there

i'll bet the form is worth bugger all...and the time will probably be very average

it's a shame...i pray we don't get one of the big two running similarly on Friday

a poor CH imho.
 
on checking the time...it was ***** poor...nearly two seconds slower than the Supreme novice

we don't really have very good hurdlers at the moment...a fit SE would have won imho

but...all credit to the winner...showed guts
 
Yes, in spite of Chris and SL having bragging rights, and that Katchit's win was great to watch, SE if fit on the day would have won that with ease. I hope they find the problem quickly - he is going to have a thorough check over; MacNamara said he lost his action very suddenly, he gathered him up and then lost it again, which you can see on the re-run - he did the right thing to pull him up.

By the way all the times were slower than standard today so you can't crab the form of the CH on that account. I think the ground was riding quite slow - all the fields were strung well out
 
By the way all the times were slower than standard today so you can't crab the form of the CH on that account
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It's the relative times of today's races to each other that EC is referring to.
 
Originally posted by Headstrong@Mar 11 2008, 07:17 PM
By the way all the times were slower than standard today so you can't crab the form of the CH on that account. I think the ground was riding quite slow - all the fields were strung well out
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Makes no difference, I'll spare you the full tutorial but you have to calculate something called 'track variance' or 'going allowance' (this side of the Atlantic) and then rate against this correction. Once you've established this figure you can most definately question the value of the CH. That's not to crab it, but there needs to be a satisfactory explanation as to why a novice and a juvenile for that mater too, can complete the same C&D faster than a Champion Hurdler. In this regard all times are relative to those run on the same card, so merely alighting on the standards for any given day, and saying they were all slow and then attributing this to the ground betrays a lack of understanding as to how these things work I'm afraid. You migth like to think of it terms of ratios of superiority between the class divisions. All things being equal the same hierarchy should emerge regardless of going. Channel 4 might dig out historical time comparisons, but they do so with the view to trying to get a handle on the going, rather than any insight as to how one performance sits with another historical one, and then trying to draw a comparison. To do this would be tantamount to comparing apples and pears. In any case, Channel 4's times are about 1.5 to 2 secs slower than the official ones in the RP. I can only assume they've got someone hand timing them in order to get quick (though misleading) information back to broadcast.

The conundrum for speed rating today wasn't so much the ground, which I think was on the slower side of Soft, but the effect that a strong head wind played in making the going appear heavier than it might have been through the times. I think the first two days might very well need treating cautiously thus, but in any event, we still need to understand how a novice has beaten the Champion, though there are plenty of perfectly possible, plausible and acceptable explanations
 
Well done Katchit, hardy little divil. The pre festival watering has proved to be a disaster we didn't see the best of most of them.
 
Originally posted by Warbler+Mar 11 2008, 09:00 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Warbler @ Mar 11 2008, 09:00 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Headstrong@Mar 11 2008, 07:17 PM
By the way all the times were slower than standard today so you can't crab the form of the CH on that account. I think the ground was riding quite slow - all the fields were strung well out
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Makes no difference, I'll spare you the full tutorial but you have to calculate something called 'track variance' or 'going allowance' ........ but there needs to be a satisfactory explanation as to why a novice and a juvenile for that mater too, can complete the same C&D faster than a Champion Hurdler. In this regard all times are relative to those run on the same card..... [/b][/quote]
I'm perfectly well aware that the main point is the variations in speed timings between races - so there's no need ot be quite os patronising!

But as I've pointed out at some length elsewhere [I think it was on here! - tho clearly on another thread] the fact that Osana was making the running had the major effect on the overall time of the race - Scudamore was conserving his energy [as a flat-bred] in the ground to get up the hill; so he didn't go off at the lick he would have done on better ground - and all the others had to drop in behind and be governed by that.

I agree that the headwind probably had as much effect as the ground, and probably varied throughout the day too; only those there on the day can tell how that panned out
 
In the RP Joh Randall always does a best winner, worst winner, biggest shock, unluckiest loser thing of all the big races. The worst winner of the CH was Hors La Loi, the best Night Nurse. Having watched the race a couple of times this evening i cant help thinking that Punjabi`s proximity to the winner makes Hors La Loi`s position less than secure.
 
Originally posted by Headstrong@Mar 11 2008, 07:17 PM
By the way all the times were slower than standard today so you can't crab the form of the CH on that account.
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shrug::

I don't think anyone's tried to?

I'm really not sure what point you're trying to make now. Call me patronising if you want, I can handle that, but you leave me at a bit of loss now to understand what point your making?
 
I'm making the point, or trying to, that the overall time of the race would be dependent to a large extent on the horse making the running. And there was a reason why Tom Scu on Osana didn't go off like a cat with a tin on his tail like he did earlier in the season - the reason being the ground.

If Osana hadn't been fancied to win this it wouldn't have mattered so much that he conserved his energy today - but it did matter, and imo it affected the overall time of the race. A horse with no chance who happened to be a front runner might have set a faster pace.

Timings for races don't just happen in a vacuum - they depend on several factors, the most important one aside from physical factors such as ground and wind being the judgment of the pacemaking jockey
 
Originally posted by Euronymous@Mar 11 2008, 11:26 PM
In the RP Joh Randall always does a best winner, worst winner, biggest shock, unluckiest loser thing of all the big races. The worst winner of the CH was Hors La Loi, the best Night Nurse. Having watched the race a couple of times this evening i cant help thinking that Punjabi`s proximity to the winner makes Hors La Loi`s position less than secure.
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The 171 currently sitting next to Katchit's name on the RP site is ridiculous, but even Punjabi's better than Marble Arch.
 
I agree with Headstrong in that as soon as a horse tries to 'fix' the pace, the final time becomes pretty much irrelevant because we know it's going to be slow.

But that doesn't mean that the form can't be treated with a very big question mark.
 
Actually I'll rephrase that. Not a very big question mark. It just has to be treated realistically - which the RP haven't done.
 
According to that RPR, the first few home today would have finished ahead of Hardy and Harchi in the 2005 renewal

Words fail me....

And the list could go on...and on..and on....

Do these morons take into account that in such ground conditions, distances between all horses are likely to be vaster...that being the only plausible understanding for this madness ...presumably being rated through Straw Bear
 
It's getting like 'A Level' inflation isn't it :suspect:
"All must have prizes" - or at least Grade A speed figures
 
They have Osana running 4lbs higher than in the Boylesports despite the fact that he probably went off too fast in that ground.

They have Sublimity running just 6lbs below his best despite the fact that he clearly didn`t like the ground and made a bad mistake at the last.

They have Punjabi on 165. Which is fecking mind boggling.
 
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