Champion Hurdle
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I gave Bula winner 165?
Question mark was given because of the lead Osana was allowed and because Sublimty, Straw Bear were FTO, also a sweating, fretting Afsoun does not run like he did in last years CH, Haydock Champion Trial, Ascot Hurdle
The turn around in lengths of Katchit and Sublimity in CH seem to confirm i was right to take this view, so therefore it makes me think i over-rater Bula by a couple of pounds
If you say 162 for Bula winner Osana and then you rate Fred Winter at 141 , time compare Fred winter and CH, you come up with a figure of 163 for Katchit
This figure ties in well with what i have Katchit's previous performances, it also ties in well with the thought if Sizing had not PU, had Sublimity had the same prep as last year, both of horses would probably have beat the 1st and 2nd if running to near their best
Am i right to think this way????
Question mark was given because of the lead Osana was allowed and because Sublimty, Straw Bear were FTO, also a sweating, fretting Afsoun does not run like he did in last years CH, Haydock Champion Trial, Ascot Hurdle
The turn around in lengths of Katchit and Sublimity in CH seem to confirm i was right to take this view, so therefore it makes me think i over-rater Bula by a couple of pounds
If you say 162 for Bula winner Osana and then you rate Fred Winter at 141 , time compare Fred winter and CH, you come up with a figure of 163 for Katchit
This figure ties in well with what i have Katchit's previous performances, it also ties in well with the thought if Sizing had not PU, had Sublimity had the same prep as last year, both of horses would probably have beat the 1st and 2nd if running to near their best
Am i right to think this way????
Harbinger
At the Start
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Regarding the lead Osana got. Watch the two races again - if anything he got a bigger lead yesterday. I reckon Scudamore overdid a bit, particularly in the ground. I can't have Osana improving on the Bula - which was run to suit him 100% - and not winning, let alone lose to a horse he beat in the Bula itself.
Harbinger
At the Start
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Hors La Loi ran the '99 SNH quicker that Istabraq did the '99 Champion Hurdle, that looks like the last time. (Isty carried a stone more, mind).
I'm not too bothered by the times though. Once the pace is fiddled with it's just a case of how slow.
I'm not too bothered by the times though. Once the pace is fiddled with it's just a case of how slow.
You'll need to try 1999 when Hors Loi La was about 2 secs faster than Istabraq. In that case though it was pretty obvious what happened, I'm less than convinced it was yesterday and my first reaction is that it was a very poor renewal in terms of quality. Until I get the chance to start mucking about with comparative sections (too time consuming to do now with more pressing priorities) I won't get a handle on it. Turftrax would go a long way towards solving this though, and some sectional standards would be very useful, but take too long to generate at this stage. Might have a stab at it over weekend, if Wales lose and I'm left to sculk off and lick my wounds.
EC1
On a break
that must be one of the most ill informed postings I've read for somewhile on a racing board.
I doubt you you could get so much so wrong with so few words
classic Clive
enjoyed it :laughing:
that must be one of the most ill informed postings I've read for somewhile on a racing board.
I doubt you you could get so much so wrong with so few words
classic Clive
enjoyed it :laughing: [/b][/quote]
It also comes from the man who rubbished the likes of Brave Inca for not being "flashy" enough yet can rejoice in Katchit winning.
EC1
On a break
yes..Clive is always totally unbiased with his views :laughing:
using the placed horses gives a pretty clear picture of the winners rating...if you like that sort of way of weighing up horses
OSANA 148 ohr before the race
makes the winner 149
PUNJABI 150 ohr going into the race
makes the winner 156
SUBLIMITY too difficult to put a mark on this season
STRAW BEAR doesn't stay a stiff 2 miles so pointless using him
CATCH ME 147 ohr before
makes the winner 164...but has been beaten a good way for a 10/1 shot
AFSOUN needs further so is not a marker at this distance
the rest have finished too far back to have run near their best...we will be rating off Harchibald next I bet...fancy rating this off Straw Bear :laughing: ...oh deary me.
Being VERY generous to the winner...I'll use questionable Catch Me...the winner can only be a 164 horse tops...very generous though
using the two nearest pursuers...about 155/160...and thats being generous
not exactly a vintage renewal
SE is better than that...when right...if anyone thinks SE wasn't running all over them then specsavers might be needed...he was cruising...then gets pulled up...apparently a bridle horse though according to Clive :laughing:
using the placed horses gives a pretty clear picture of the winners rating...if you like that sort of way of weighing up horses
OSANA 148 ohr before the race
makes the winner 149
PUNJABI 150 ohr going into the race
makes the winner 156
SUBLIMITY too difficult to put a mark on this season
STRAW BEAR doesn't stay a stiff 2 miles so pointless using him
CATCH ME 147 ohr before
makes the winner 164...but has been beaten a good way for a 10/1 shot
AFSOUN needs further so is not a marker at this distance
the rest have finished too far back to have run near their best...we will be rating off Harchibald next I bet...fancy rating this off Straw Bear :laughing: ...oh deary me.
Being VERY generous to the winner...I'll use questionable Catch Me...the winner can only be a 164 horse tops...very generous though
using the two nearest pursuers...about 155/160...and thats being generous
not exactly a vintage renewal
SE is better than that...when right...if anyone thinks SE wasn't running all over them then specsavers might be needed...he was cruising...then gets pulled up...apparently a bridle horse though according to Clive :laughing:
by Nick Robson
HENRY DE BROMHEAD believes he has found a reason for Sizing Europe's sudden capitulation in Tuesday's Champion Hurdle.
The red-hot favourite appeared to be travellingbest of all two flights from home but stopped suddenly and was virtually pulled up on the run-in.
"He looked to be going really well so obviously it was a bit disappointing," said De Bromhead.
"Whether he would have won or not I don't know, but he looked to be going really well.
"When he first trotted this morning he looked lame behind for about five steps which I was quite pleased about because I thought we had a reason.
"But when I did it again he came sound, so I thought I had imagined it.He did the same for the racecourse vet, though.
"So he examined him and pressed down on a joint in his back where he was very sore, so that looks like the problem.
"I had a mare who did the same, Beau Bridget, and it really affected her but she ended up winning two. It's behind the saddle and into the hind quarters," he told At The Races.
Former champion Sublimity ran a game race for John Carr in fourth but the trainer was inclined to believe the rain-softened ground cost him any chance of victory.
"He ran a really good race, he just doesn't get up the hill on that ground," said Carr.
"He can't jump as well on that ground, but he still looked the likely winner turning in.
"He still emerged as the best of the Irish though and as long as the ground suits we'll go to Punchestown."
HENRY DE BROMHEAD believes he has found a reason for Sizing Europe's sudden capitulation in Tuesday's Champion Hurdle.
The red-hot favourite appeared to be travellingbest of all two flights from home but stopped suddenly and was virtually pulled up on the run-in.
"He looked to be going really well so obviously it was a bit disappointing," said De Bromhead.
"Whether he would have won or not I don't know, but he looked to be going really well.
"When he first trotted this morning he looked lame behind for about five steps which I was quite pleased about because I thought we had a reason.
"But when I did it again he came sound, so I thought I had imagined it.He did the same for the racecourse vet, though.
"So he examined him and pressed down on a joint in his back where he was very sore, so that looks like the problem.
"I had a mare who did the same, Beau Bridget, and it really affected her but she ended up winning two. It's behind the saddle and into the hind quarters," he told At The Races.
Former champion Sublimity ran a game race for John Carr in fourth but the trainer was inclined to believe the rain-softened ground cost him any chance of victory.
"He ran a really good race, he just doesn't get up the hill on that ground," said Carr.
"He can't jump as well on that ground, but he still looked the likely winner turning in.
"He still emerged as the best of the Irish though and as long as the ground suits we'll go to Punchestown."
EC1
On a break
not a bridle bollox horse then Galileo? :laughing:
it were obvious the horse went wrong really wasn't it?
the clock actually backs up the above rating as well
Crackaway Jack rated 133 ran 5.4 seconds slower then Katchit...about 27/30 lbs inferior...that race wasn't a dawdle either
i'll hazard a guess that the Supreme 123 are pretty decent just based on the clock.
it were obvious the horse went wrong really wasn't it?
the clock actually backs up the above rating as well
Crackaway Jack rated 133 ran 5.4 seconds slower then Katchit...about 27/30 lbs inferior...that race wasn't a dawdle either
i'll hazard a guess that the Supreme 123 are pretty decent just based on the clock.
Indeed, that bridle bollocks Sizing Europe looked really ungenuine when, in worse conditions, he belted away from Osana up the hill at the Greatwood and was going away at the line.
What utter tosh.
Katchit deserves credit, no question about that..
But anyone who thinks that was Sizing Europe's true running and that he wouldn't have been fighting out the finish at his best should really give up on the game. We can argue again about whether Katchit would have been tough enough to shake off.
What utter tosh.
Katchit deserves credit, no question about that..
But anyone who thinks that was Sizing Europe's true running and that he wouldn't have been fighting out the finish at his best should really give up on the game. We can argue again about whether Katchit would have been tough enough to shake off.
EC1
On a break
totally agree Bobbyjo
I admire the winners guts but he would have been a gallant 2nd imho...SE was travelling just the same as he was in Ireland...and the time backs up that the race was not hard to win...it don't change anything to me...just another race robbed of the standard it should have aspired to....another losing bet for me...I have lots of them...which is quite unusual for a forum poster...all the forums I've ever been on have 95% of the members winning every year. norty
IF both KS and Denman are neck and neck at the last and both fall...then the third horse 20lengths behind isn't a good winner...and would also record a slow time for class...same principle applies here...if horses run below par..it does not make the race a top class renewal...no matter how gutsy the "winner" is.
Some people just think the winner of a top race should automatically get a 170+ rating no matter the circumstances of the win...seems odd to me...that sort of thinking...but if people want to rate races like that then it's up to them.
I admire the winners guts but he would have been a gallant 2nd imho...SE was travelling just the same as he was in Ireland...and the time backs up that the race was not hard to win...it don't change anything to me...just another race robbed of the standard it should have aspired to....another losing bet for me...I have lots of them...which is quite unusual for a forum poster...all the forums I've ever been on have 95% of the members winning every year. norty
IF both KS and Denman are neck and neck at the last and both fall...then the third horse 20lengths behind isn't a good winner...and would also record a slow time for class...same principle applies here...if horses run below par..it does not make the race a top class renewal...no matter how gutsy the "winner" is.
Some people just think the winner of a top race should automatically get a 170+ rating no matter the circumstances of the win...seems odd to me...that sort of thinking...but if people want to rate races like that then it's up to them.
EC1
On a break
Sublimity must be one of the hardest horses to put a rating to...no one was sure last year how good the win was...and this year he has not pulled any trees up
a tough question to answer An
a tough question to answer An
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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that must be one of the most ill informed postings I've read for somewhile on a racing board.
I doubt you you could get so much so wrong with so few words
classic Clive
enjoyed it :laughing: [/b][/quote]
I don't often find myself agreeing with clivex but I can't see much wrong with his comments.
The best horse on the day did win. This doesn't deny the possibility that SE might have gone wrong on the day.
Katchit is certainly no bridle ponce.
The race is over. Get over it. I was on Osana to heavy (for me) money. I need to get over it too but I will. Losing to such a likeable beast makes it a bit easier.
Harbinger
At the Start
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Hmmm. The RP results page for yesterday now reads 169 for Katchit:
http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/past_re..._date=2008-3-11
The actual race result still says 171.
Have they seen sense? I could live with 169.
http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/past_re..._date=2008-3-11
The actual race result still says 171.
Have they seen sense? I could live with 169.
EC1
On a break
I don't often find myself agreeing with clivex but I can't see much wrong with his comments.
:suspect:
171 RPR?
still seems big to me Gareth..even though they are higher than OHR's
if folk want to overrate the race it seems fair enough..races always encourage differences re ratings
i wondered about the "get over it" snipe as well..strange indeed...still don't understand it
:suspect:
171 RPR?
still seems big to me Gareth..even though they are higher than OHR's
if folk want to overrate the race it seems fair enough..races always encourage differences re ratings
i wondered about the "get over it" snipe as well..strange indeed...still don't understand it
That sums it up for me too. I'm sorry for my bet and for the horse/connections, but if anything other than SE had to win then I'm really glad it was Katchit. But SE if he hadn't suddenly been feeling something would have won with ease imo - he was only just getting into his stride and was powering away
I do agree by the way that Katchit has now been given an overgenerous figure, but he did beat the rest of what was on offer fair and square, SE apart. And Osana and Sublimity are very good horses - so by the look of it will be Punjabi when he goes fencing.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
That's a very useful post, thanks.