Champions day Ascot 2023

GL,guys.
Nashwa has run 1m on sft once - it wasn't.
Tahiyra was 2nd to Mawj on Sft -trainer said she couldn't qkn on it.
You pays your money............
 
My takes on the card with [best] odds as they were at the time of compilation:

1.15 - I didn’t do much in the way of ratings for most of the races. The form is well established and there probably isn’t too much value going around. Remarkably enough, Trueshan (15/8) is going for four in a row in this race and I’d love to see him do it although Kyprios (11/8) will be very hard to beat if at his best. It’s really just a race to watch, at least for now, since we don’t know if they’re going to switch to the ‘inner’ (hurdles) track where the ground is currently good.

1.20 - This race might present some betting value if you can find the winner. I haven’t been a great fan of Kinross (7/4) and it’s a pretty sad state of affairs when the top rated in the so-called “champions’ sprint” is only 118. For some reason Art Power (20/1) is dynamite at the Curragh but he also ‘won’ his side in this race two years ago in soft ground so maybe 20/1, especially if you can get extra places, might be a decent bet. Rohaan (12/1) won the 2021 Wokingham off 112, to do which you really need to be a 119+ horse. He didn’t have to reach anywhere near that level last time but it showed him coming back into form. Sandrine’s (17/2) allowance brings her rating up and she acts in soft, as do all of those previously mentioned. Run To Freedom (25/1) was a nose in front of Kinross when runner-up to Shaquille in this season’s July Cup (good to soft) so he probably shouldn’t be 25/1. He and Art Power at big prices each-way against the field will be my plays.

2.25 - Again, this is a really substandard G1. Free Wind (10/3) was at least thought highly enough of to run in the Arc so she’s deservedly favourite. Jackie Oh has been improving from race to race and steps up to this trip for the first time. Her dam never raced beyond a mile but her dosage profile points to the trip suiting and possibly even her improving for it but 4/1 is a bit skinny. A small win bet on Free Wind will do me. (Probably in more sense than one.) Edit - now out to 11/2 :confused:

3.05 - This race will be run on the straight course so expect really soft ground. This is just a race to watch although 13/8 Paddington might prove to be value. He was in very soft ground at Goodwood off a prominent ride and I can see Moore keeping him prominent here and dictating the pace, if possible. John Gosden mentioned the ground in his excuses for Nashwa at Goodwood but I think he was, to a degree, disguising the awful ride Hollie Doyle gave her. It really was a shocker and I thought the filly did exceptionally well to get second. If I do have a bet it will be the favourite as he has the best form and the fewest question marks. Edit - I changed my mind pretty quickly to go in heavily on Paddington at the price. Clever, eh?

3.45 - I've no idea what UK punters and odds compilers have against Mostahdaf. I mentioned him before the POW when he was 28/1 (and should have been favourite) and he was already rated 3lbs higher the odds-on Paddington when running the finish out of him at York. Here he is 7lbs clear on ORs. Were that an O'Brien horse you wouldn't get odds against but he's 11/2 and that is huge, especially with the race likely to be run on the inner track with better ground. (The double with Paddington pays 16/1 which is also stonking value.)

4.05 - The stalls are far side but likely to cross the entire [narrowed] track and the last time this was run in heavy the winner came from a high draw so I’m not going to let any trends or stats affect my bets. However, I have highlighted in red those with some of their best form in soft or heavy (top five RPRs) and will focus on those with ‘winnable’ ratings for my long/short lists.

Awaal, Sonny Liston and Lattam are the first three to appeal although Sonny Liston’s price is about as appealing as getting into the ring with his eponym. Baradar and Migration appeal more than him but their prices are a bit skinny too. I’ll probably use a win bet on Migration to cover my other bets. He might just be the type that weight doesn’t stop. He was quite impressive in the Lincoln, looking better than a handicapper.

Lattam’s stablemate Al Mubhir also appeals given his progressive profile. Neither got a run in a messy Golden Mile in which it paid to be prominent – the form level is represented by The Gatekeeper – but Lattam was 5/1 favourite for that and has probably been saved for this. 20/1 is a very nice price.

Docklands wouldn’t surprise me. He’s young enough to have been improving at home since the Britannia and his course form won’t be a hindrance. I do think some trainers and owners are actively trying to furnish Hayley Turner with big event winners and I’ve grown to like her as a jockey. She tends not to let these connections down but I can let 6/1 go.

In summary, the main bet is Awaal (14/1) with smaller ones on Lattam (20/1), Al Mubhir (12/1) and Migration (8/1).
 
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Marb said:
The interesting thing about a race card like this, is you can back some very good horses at fairly big prices, because the calibre of the opposition is pretty strong.
Click to expand...

True mate.
 
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Mostahdaf doesn't run.

I still think it would have won but it might have meant it didn't go to America on the back of a harder than necessary race.
 
A funny old game.
There were debates about the form of Poptronics win earlier this year at Haydock.

The horse has been too keen a few times. She wasn't today.

It seems as if she has got over that now.

A coulda woulda shoulda bet for me today.

Nevermind. One day I'll get it all right. Probably when I'm six foot under.

Tahiyra Time now.
 
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I didn’t back Poptronic but was delighted for connections. An extremely good trainer and nice to see him give Sam James the chance in a Group One...many bigger trainers would not have done.
 
I know several on here fancied Big Rock and fair play but this ground is just ridiculous! So many clearly hating the ground and it’s a huge shame for them. It’s not their fault and I don’t blame connections for having a go, but as for end of season Championships, it’s just dire!
 
Trawlerman.. Raced second.. Won

Art Power made all

Poptronics made all

Big Rock makes all
 
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I watched Ving Rhames today portraying Sonny Liston in the movie Phantom Punch today.

So I had myself 50 quid ew on him in the last........seems to be fancied a bit with Ryan Moore up
 
Desert Orchid said:
... which is why I wanted to see Paddington ridden prominently.
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You would expect him to be but maybe they were thinking the Frenchie would burn himself and them out if the took him on.

The way that thing galloped on Frankel would have been pushed to get to him with a start like that. horse never turned a hair just kept going
 
Marb said:
Trawlerman.. Raced second.. Won

Art Power made all

Poptronics made all

Big Rock makes all
Click to expand...

With Mostahdaf out and bearing the above in mind, I've gone for My Prospero each-way 4 places 11/1 since he at least looks likely to race prominently.
 
Desert Orchid said:
With Mostahdaf out and bearing the above in mind, I've gone for My Prospero each-way 4 places 11/1 since he at least looks likely to race prominently.
Click to expand...

That went well. Looks like he overdid the pace with the winner coming from last. I shudder to think what Mosta might have done to that field.
 
Mixed emotions here. Wanted King of Steel to win because I love the horse but didn’t really want Dettori to win…
 
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