All about opinions as usual but I think minding is better than the colts but the drop in trip and the long season could be against her. Whatever the lads do seems to come off just now and I'd watch the market in the 10 mins before the race to see how much of the coolmore millions will go on her. At the prices I think jet setting would be worth a nibble.
Champions Day
- Thread starter Euronymous
- Start date
Found produced a fine kick at Leopardstown but Almanzor easily matched it and was still cruising when he got to her quarters. He then had to fight to get past her though and was only a head or a neck up 50 yards out until Seamie Heffernan accepted the situation, no doubt preferring to save something for the Arc. The 2lb swing makes it very interesting on paper, but Almanzor's tactical speed is a serious weapon.
If you subscribe to the wfa concept - and I do - the 2lb pull is of no consequence whatsoever. It simply represents the gradual unwinding of the allowance. They meet on exactly the same terms on Saturday as they did at Leopardstown: weight for age and sex.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Agreed. I think Ascot will really suit Almanzor's turn of foot. Hoping for a special performance.
Surprised to see Speedy Boarding declared for the Filly and Mares, especially given her trainer said this. "She looked like she really stayed on so it will either be the Opera or the Fillies and Mares at Ascot. It won't be both."
Just goes to show trainers can (and do) change their minds, (or owners change it for them), one of the two.
Just goes to show trainers can (and do) change their minds, (or owners change it for them), one of the two.
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I'm keen on the chance of Yuften in the last - nicely handicapped on his best form, eyecatching run last time out over an inadequate trip - but just wonder about the stable form as Roger Charlton's recent strike rate is well below his usual. For that reason, I'll also back Ajfaan, another who will be suited by a return to a mile.
In the QEII, at morning prices Galileo Gold is well overpriced but the lack of market confidence is striking - 4/1 earlier in the week, 6/1 now. It might just reflect the money for Minding but it tempers confidence.
Almanzor's turn of foot to prevail in the Champion Stakes.
In the QEII, at morning prices Galileo Gold is well overpriced but the lack of market confidence is striking - 4/1 earlier in the week, 6/1 now. It might just reflect the money for Minding but it tempers confidence.
Almanzor's turn of foot to prevail in the Champion Stakes.
davidjohnson
At the Start
- Joined
- Jun 29, 2007
- Messages
- 3,434
Galileo Gold was equally weak prior to the St James's Palace.
Those Minding performance ratings from Timeform are as follows
Guineas 121
Irish Guineas 122
Oaks 118+
Pretty Polly 118+
Nassau 120+
Irish Champion 120+
Those Minding performance ratings from Timeform are as follows
Guineas 121
Irish Guineas 122
Oaks 118+
Pretty Polly 118+
Nassau 120+
Irish Champion 120+
EC1
On a break
according to my calcs that 1 draw isn't particularly ideal for Almanzor..it may cost him a couple of pounds..which at this level could be key.
My main neagive for Almanzor is Soumillon's record at Ascot.
Soumillon at Ascot = 3/47
His AE..using BFSP is just 0.56
In Group 1 races he is 2/25..AE 0.41
In races over the round course he is 1/20..AE = 0.29 :blink:
Obviously that don't mean horse can't win..but it tells me that he is poor value re the fact he wins less than half the times he should do in Group 1's. Add that to the less than ideal 1 box and it doesn't encourage me to back him at current price. Its not about can or can't win..its simply a fact of % play..over a series of bets..he does poorly..well below market expectation at this track...particularly on the round course.
My main neagive for Almanzor is Soumillon's record at Ascot.
Soumillon at Ascot = 3/47
His AE..using BFSP is just 0.56
In Group 1 races he is 2/25..AE 0.41
In races over the round course he is 1/20..AE = 0.29 :blink:
Obviously that don't mean horse can't win..but it tells me that he is poor value re the fact he wins less than half the times he should do in Group 1's. Add that to the less than ideal 1 box and it doesn't encourage me to back him at current price. Its not about can or can't win..its simply a fact of % play..over a series of bets..he does poorly..well below market expectation at this track...particularly on the round course.
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EC1
On a break
The draw stats from 42 races over 10f with 10 or more runners
low third........ 8/156 ........AE 0.51
middle third.... 20/168........AE 1.22
high third........14/183........AE 0.96
low third........ 8/156 ........AE 0.51
middle third.... 20/168........AE 1.22
high third........14/183........AE 0.96
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Thanks for that.
Certainly not as clear-cut as the RPRs but equally no suggestion that the Irish Champion represented some sort of step forward.
Anyway, we'll see.
Hope you're wrong about Almanzor, EC.
I'll be interested to see how US Army Ranger runs today. I expressed the view after the Derby that he might be best at 10f and if, as seems likely, he gets a truly-run race today he could go well. Can't bring myself to back him to win but I've had a dabble in the place-only market on Betfair.
I'll be interested to see how US Army Ranger runs today. I expressed the view after the Derby that he might be best at 10f and if, as seems likely, he gets a truly-run race today he could go well. Can't bring myself to back him to win but I've had a dabble in the place-only market on Betfair.
EC1
On a break
i don't tend read draw stats in that way tbh..all they telling me is that you need a few lbs in hand if drawn low,,it gives you a couple mid and you run about par in high
they won't make big priced horses win imo..they just knock a few or add a few lbs
the jock stat..is more telling to me..his record on horses at less than 5/1 at ascot reads
7/2 achilles of troy LOST
2/1 Dylan Thomas LOST
7/2 Darjima LOST
11/4 Darjina LOST
5/2 Prohibit WON
1/1 Makfi LOST
3/1 Havane Smoker LOST
11/4 Shea Shea LOST
6/4 Cirrus Des Aigles LOST
7/2 Dalkala LOST
6/4 Cirrus Des Aigles LOST
9/2 Shea Shea LOST
9/4 Vazira LOST
7/4 Cirrus Des Aigles LOST
3/1 Ervedya WON
9/2 Candarliya LOST
9/2 Ervedya LOST
S
SlimChance
Guest
I've had one bet on the card. Seventh Heaven at 15/8 or 7/4 is by far the best bet available today.
EC1
On a break
its reported that the ground hasn't got much give in it..which puts me off Fascinating Rock...i think The Grey Gatsby will do for me at the prices..particularly with 5yo's doing well in this
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Just a bit of tongue in cheek. I could not have either of the other two.
The one hole combined with the Soumillon stat would make a lay of Alamanzor a serious proposition.
Just going to be a watching race for me and if he wins he is probably worth a few pounds more than might be apparent.
EC1
On a break
off to a flyer ..can probably only go one way now
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Signs of Blessing is a relatively big price in the sprint - Strong E/W bet for me. Ground might be a little quick for Twilight Son and QR and Shalaa still has to prove he's the horse he looked as a 2yo; Meccas Angel won't stay imo and Librisa Breeze is the price he is because of track form and a crazy turn of foot in his last race but this is a completely different race and a different trip. Why's he's shorter than a proven G1 sprinter is beyond me.
EC1
On a break
a cracker of a race..Twilight Son must have a good chance imo