Cheltenham 2017/18

Kauto Abu said:
To be fair most of them have been winning on soft/heavy all year. They should all handle it. Even MTOY who according to Henderson “has to have good ground” won on soft before Christmas.


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But in the H'Caps in particular, trainers have been bringing horses along all year long, training them to the minute for the festival with better ground in mind. Just think it's a variable to consider
 
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Beef or Salmon said:
This is an absolute stonking bet, just had a nice lump on it, I see he is as low as 6/4 in other places. 365 have made a huge error here.
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Nothing ventured nothing gained. Into 10s from 18/1 with Betfair too.


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Does anyone know is the next declaration stage for the Champion Hurdle and the Supreme at the 5 day stage ? I don't think I've ever been so interested to see what actually lines up.

Willie Mullins runners in the Champion hurdle bemusing me. Some real strength behind Wicklow Brave, Melon very weak and even Faugheen has been as big as 3's in the without market currently 11/4 on Betfair. Yorkhill been fairly solid also so perhaps they are actually serious :blink:
 
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I think that most Festival races have a 6 day confirmation stage, Danny, with 48 hour declaration. Confirmation for the Tuesday races is, therefore, this coming Wednesday.
 
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It is looking very likely to be the first soft ground Festival in a long time . Although there have been Festivals when the ground has turned soft by the end e.g Coneygree's GC and the final day of the 2004 Festival I cannot remember the last time it started on soft ground although apparently the ground would have been heavy in foot and mouth year 2001
 
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It definitely changes my thinking on certain horses and races. Soft ground would be fine. It is what it is and will Suit some horses better than others. As punters I think we can adjust our betting accordingly.

However, it's the prospect of dead or gluey ground that is a concern. Some go through it, but most don't. Could throw up some Bizzare results in the graded races imo.
 
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Ardross said:
It is looking very likely to be the first soft ground Festival in a long time . Although there have been Festivals when the ground has turned soft by the end e.g Coneygree's GC and the final day of the 2004 Festival I cannot remember the last time it started on soft ground although apparently the ground would have been heavy in foot and mouth year 2001
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was soft on day one in 2013
 
Grasshopper said:
I’m still not convinced it will be as soft as some are making out. This racecourse has previous.
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That's my feeling as well. If there was rain forecast throughout this coming week I'd be concerned but the threat appears to be limited to the thaw which could have been mitigated by moving the snow before it melted.
 
Grasshopper said:
I’m still not convinced it will be as soft as some are making out. This racecourse has previous.
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I'm with you Grass I'll believe it when I see it. I once did my absolute nuts on Cause of Causes in the supreme on the basis that Claisse had said the ground would be proper soft maybe bordering on heavy and it was nowhere near those descriptions.
 
I came on here to say the same thing regarding the going and can see official Good to Soft is nearly odds against with Betfred. I reckon that's the first winner of the week...

edit - 5/6 which is fair
 
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Danny said:
I'm with you Grass I'll believe it when I see it. I once did my absolute nuts on Cause of Causes in the supreme on the basis that Claisse had said the ground would be proper soft maybe bordering on heavy and it was nowhere near those descriptions.
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Actually just in case anyone questions my mental sanity with that bet I should add that there was a William Hill special on the race where they laid either 5 or 6 places I think it was the latter (as he finished 7th) and I'd taken 50/1 I maxed it out on everybody's account that I knew who held one.

Just one of many memories of first day Bloodbaths that I've had at the festival over the years, I'm hoping I don't add to that this year although there is a distinct possibility it could be the case :(
 
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There’s heavy showers forecast all week along with the snow already there. Can’t see how it wont be soft. It needs somewhat dry weather to dry out. It’s currently predominantly soft all over without the thaw.


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Kauto Abu said:
There’s heavy showers forecast all week along with the snow already there. Can’t see how it wont be soft. It needs somewhat dry weather to dry out. It’s currently predominantly soft all over without the thaw.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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The Netweather forecast is promising, albeit with couple of periods of heavier rain further out.

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That Netweather forecast is terrible an inch of rain next weekend and very cold .
 
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If they get as much rain as promised next weekend in that first forecast GeeYoo posted you’ll have heavy in the description.

That’s almost 25mm between Saturday & Sunday. When they water to maintain good/soft ground they generally put on 4-6mm.

The forecast DH posted suggests we’ll have 21mm between now and the start of the festival. Add in the snow melt and it certainly looks soft. Claisse himself expects “milder but unsettled” weather in the coming week.

Somewhere between all three maybe.

The clock after the Supreme will be a truer indication anyway.


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The BBC weather forecast seemingly only suggesting light rain and showers next weekend for Cheltenham but Tuesday if this week the only dry day and more light rain during the Festival.
 
From Racing UK.


The going at Cheltenham was on Sunday morning changed to soft, good to soft in places, on all three tracks.

Clerk of the course Simon Claisse expects rain and milder temperatures in the build-up to the four-day Cheltenham Festival, which begins on Tuesday week.

He told Racing UK: "It looks as if with this milder weather it's going to stay unsettled, with bits and pieces of rain which will probably keep the ground where it is.

"Friday-Saturday looks like it could be pretty wet, with 10 or 12 millimetres - half an inch of rain.



"We may have heavy in places before we start, but let's remember that there have been plenty of years when we've been soft the weekend before the Festival and have ended up good by the Friday."

Ladbrokes slashed their price on heavy going for the opening day of the Festival on March 13. Heavy is now 9-1 with the firm, from 25-1.

"Due to a flurry of bets, combined with the latest reports from Cheltenham, we have had to slash the odds on heavy going on day one of the festival," the firm's Nicola McGeady said.




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https://twitter.com/CheltenhamRaces/status/970312035304198145

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">As Sir Tom Jones would say, it’s good so see the ‘old green green grass of Home!’ <br><br>Official Going is currently SOFT, GOOD TO SOFT IN PLACES. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/TheFestival?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#TheFestival</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/IllBeThere?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#IllBeThere</a> <a href="https://t.co/hH47zikkTE">pic.twitter.com/hH47zikkTE</a></p>— CheltenhamRacecourse (@CheltenhamRaces) <a href="https://twitter.com/CheltenhamRaces/status/970312035304198145?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 4, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
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