Cheltenham 2017/18

Grass growth and daytime temperatures of 10 degrees or so are a blessing as any falling rain can be absorbed by grass.
last year had one of the better grass covers that I have seen in the last seven years.
Usually after snow the ground pores open and ground becomes saturated.
Even here near Kanturk farmers cannot get over how good ground conditions are since the thaw.
Great drying by day and a little mid day heat when the sun comes out.
That the temperatures keep to 10 degrees plus by day and all will be better than I expected.
Tully East for a good run again so !
 
A going stick reading of 5.5 on January 1st 2018 = Heavy - soft in places (see pic below)


A going stick reading of 5.5 on Tuesday 6th March 2018 is equal to Soft - Good/soft in places as seen in DG pic!! [emoji849]


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Not sure why people are quite so frantic about it but the only meaningful measurements will be Friday lunchtime after a drying 3 days and Monday morning after the weekend's rain.

For what it's worth, I'd say there's little chance of heavy going on Tuesday although soft, heavy in places is possible in Sunday's report. Best guess for Tuesday would be exactly what it is now.
 
I agree with you archie to an extent but a lot of horses declared Sunday for Tuesday will be done so on the basis of ground. If the going reading is currently 5.5 it’s a lot softer than they’re giving it credit for.

How can 5.5 read heavy -soft in places one day and soft / G/S in places the next. That’s just way off.


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There'll be 8mm rain Friday, 6mm Saturday (most in the morning) then will not rain again until light rain Tuesday morning, it won't rain Wednesday but very heavy rain Thursday(13.5 mm)
 
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Supersundae has always been considered a spring ground horse and his season structured accordingly. He would be unlikely to able to display his apparent finishing spurt on anything worse than good over 3 miles.
The going will be what it will be. On genuine good ground I believe his is the most likely winner especially as JH has said he is much stronger this year. If softer then several others come into play. Sacrifices to the weather gods are in order..
 
I may be jumping the gun but has this been to date one of the best years for horses making it to the Festival?.....unless we are about to have a spout of injuries/withdrawals
 
Kauto Abu said:
A going stick reading of 5.5 on January 1st 2018 = Heavy - soft in places (see pic below)


A going stick reading of 5.5 on Tuesday 6th March 2018 is equal to Soft - Good/soft in places as seen in DG pic!! [emoji849]


09a5c44934123544ca10ab154fbe6db7.jpg



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Relative to the time of year, that's probably realistic.
 
I don’t see how? You put a stick into the ground to determine how much moisture is there. How is the time of year relevant to how far the stick goes in? If it goes to 5.5 in January and is heavy surely when it goes down again in March to the same level you have to have the same consistency in results. Otherwise the system is flawed?

Surely moisture in the ground is the only factor in determining levels on a going stick, not time of year?


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FWIW, sun is shining in Cheltenham this morning, and if there was any rain overnight, it didn't amount to anything (dry first thing).
 
Grasshopper said:
You’d be better off looking for another Buveur D’Air, than obsessing about the weather, KA.
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A lot of my horses all handle soft ground perfectly well so it’s hardly unreasonable to question the true state of the ground when there’s evidence there to suggest it may be softer than the official line. For what it’s worth I’ve Buveur D’Air at 4s and 7/2 more times than I care to remember.


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Like I say.......the racecourse has previous, and the ground will surprise many of you. Let's wait and see.
 
Kauto Abu said:
A lot of my horses all handle soft ground perfectly well so it’s hardly unreasonable to question the true state of the ground when there’s evidence there to suggest it may be softer than the official line. For what it’s worth I’ve Buveur D’Air at 4s and 7/2 mire times than I care to remember.


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Fair play.
 
Grasshopper said:
Like I say.......the racecourse has previous, and the ground will surprise many of you. Let's wait and see.
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It does. This year tho to be fair tho circumstances look different. The amount of snow on the course has to mean a high water table and with the rain forecast, if we get the high end of it Claisse has himself acknowledged there could be heavy in the description by Sunday.

There are 2-3 horses on my radar who suddenly become a whole lot more attractive if it’s on the slow side. The true state of the ground could make or break the festival for horse, trainer, punter alike. Horses are now steered at the festival where it looked like they might miss it only a week or so ago and it’s down to conditions on course.


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Kauto Abu said:
I don’t see how? You put a stick into the ground to determine how much moisture is there. How is the time of year relevant to how far the stick goes in? If it goes to 5.5 in January and is heavy surely when it goes down again in March to the same level you have to have the same consistency in results. Otherwise the system is flawed?

Surely moisture in the ground is the only factor in determining levels on a going stick, not time of year?


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Au contraire, IIRC the going stick actually measures shear and can be affected by soil constituents, grass root growth, etc. As there's a difference between 'summer soft' and 'winter soft' there'll likely be a realtive discrepancy 'tween descrpition at the turn of the year and (essentially) spring ground itself.
 
Thanks RH. That’s a fair explanation and goes a long way to explaining the inconsistencies of the going stick readings at Cheltenham.


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