Cheltenham 2017/18

It is a tough call either way.
Using the snow as insulation and a natural irrigation has merit once temperatures rise enough for some growth.
Remember when Denman made his comeback at Kempton when the covers had been down for how long / the ground was stirabout.
With temperatures not forecast to rise to appreciable levels, 10 degrees plus by day the grass cannot grow simple as.
Irrigating cold ground is a recipe for disaster if any rain falls after so I do not envy Mr Claisse his job.
Punter beware !!
 
mjlhme.jpg
 
The expected snowfall later in the week is the primary reason for no covers. It would be impossible to lift them up with as little as 10cm of snow on them. Then they would miss the rainfall he needs to irrigate. The ground will be dead as a Dodo...nap
 
Last edited:
Looking through entries pach du poulder leapt out at me. I can only say if he gets past halfway pn should be hung drawn and quartered. The condition he ran him in a few weeks ago was shocking....totally unfit.laid like there was no tomorrow he should have been dragged in for schooling in public....if he now wins at the festival i would have his licence as it would be worse than anything Barnety Curly would have ashamed of doing...blatant non trier cant possibly win without pn being hailed as a blatant cheat
 
3rd of 5, beaten less than 7 lengths behind the next two in the market, in his first run since April.

Think you’re being a touch harsh Fist although I don’t doubt he was far from 100% fit and there was an element of readying him for March.

How does that compare to Elliott giving Cause of Causes a sighter at Cheltenham last January, when never put into the race, only to show remarkably improved form on more suitable ground next time out when a gambled on winner of the festival version?. Yet he seems to have been lauded for it as a canny piece of training.

Incidentally he sent CoC to Leopardstown on ground he’d hate last month, where he unsurprisingly never figured and his Tiger Roll appears to be following a similar route to CoC last year and nobody says a word.

I like Elliott and personally have no problem with it, as I doubt will many because it’s so obvious that nobody is going to lose money on the before March.

I just fail to see how Nicholls’s is any different, in fact far less so I’d say other than possibly as it was sent off 6/4f (still too big a price for the reigning Foxhunter) people lost money on it.
 
No significant snow overnight but it's just starting to snow now and here for 24hrs if you believe the amber warning forecast.
 
According to Claisse 10-15cm of snow is expected to hit which would have it possibly soft on the opening day. It might be worth a few bob on Samcro NRNB at 14/1 for Supreme


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Kauto Abu said:
According to Claisse 10-15cm of snow is expected to hit which would have it as soft on the opening day. It might be worth a few bob on Samcro NRNB at 14/1 for Supreme


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

really no idea what the upside of putting those odds up is for the bookie. guess the idea is when the bet voids you've got money in the account to play with on festival week which is what they want but he's what, 6/4 if he runs?
 
That snow is expected to hit by Monday or Tuesday, KA, with no more than a couple of light flurries predicted between then and start of the Festival. It's mainly cloud and showers thereafter, but temperatures will get into double-figures most days.

Might still be just the soft-side of Good-to-Soft, and not convinced it will get deep enough for Samcro to get switched. Not convinced he will get switched, even if it's genuinely Soft ground, to be honest.
 
Grasshopper said:
That snow is expected to hit by Monday or Tuesday, KA, with no more than a couple of light flurries predicted between then and start of the Festival. It's mainly cloud and showers thereafter, but temperatures will get into double-figures most days.

Might still be just the soft-side of Good-to-Soft, and not convinced it will get deep enough for Samcro to get switched. Not convinced he will get switched, even if it's genuinely Soft ground, to be honest.
Click to expand...


This is from the RP. At 14/1 NRNB with B365 it’s worth a shot I think. There are a couple of sites predicting 5-6mm of rain the Friday before the festival. I have no idea how accurate it is but if that were to occur on top of the snow melt would have it soft for sure.




Cheltenham is braced for four to six inches of snow towards the end of the week, but clerk of the course Simon Claisse does not anticipate any problems with the racing surface, which has dried out considerably in recent days and is currently "good to soft, good in places on all three courses".

However, Claisse has raised the possibility that the ground might be easier than the usual good to soft for the opening day of the festival on March 13.

He revealed that John Kettley, the weather expert used by Cheltenham and who is reckoned a good judge, has said he would not be betting on the meeting starting on good to soft, the implication being that it will probably start somewhat easier than that.

Mild weather next week should clear any snow from the course, which is largely uncovered, but the forecast is such that Claisse is finding it hard to predict exactly how it might ride when the festival kicks off.

As he cast his eye over a site which had just a light dusting of snow on Wednesday, Claisse said: "John Kettley forewarned us a week or so ago that a weather front moving up from the south might hit the cold air and give us some snow, and the other forecasters have generally become aligned now, with the Met Office having weather warnings out for Gloucestershire through Thursday, Friday and Saturday in terms of probable disruptions to travel.

"They are talking about four to six inches, or 10-15cm, and, while that will present some operational challenges around the site, we are geared up to deal with it. Then all the indications are that from Monday onwards we will be frost free, with temperatures rising to six, seven or eight degrees, so we're pretty confident that the snow will have gone by midweek.

"It looks as if festival week will be quite mild."

Claisse's rule of thumb guide equates 10-15cm of snow to 10-15mm of precipitation, and with that in mind he said: "On what I know now - given that we are 13 days away - it's looking as if conditions will be on the easier side for the start of the meeting. I don't think I'd want to be any more specific than that."





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
I think Samcro would need to be declared for the Supreme on Friday week, and if he does, I don't think he can declare for the Ballymore.
 
Kauto Abu said:
This is from the RP.
Click to expand...

This is where you fail, KA. :lol:

Edit: If you feel that strongly about the going, you would be much better off taking the 13/8 that the meeting starts on Soft. There has never been any indication at any stage, that Samcro would go to the Supreme - only the run over 2m at the DRF made people think it was a possibility.
 
Last edited:
I don’t feel strongly about the going at all Grass. I just said it could possible come up soft first day. I don’t particularly want to put money on it.

And in all Elliotts stable tours he suggested if it came up soft then the supreme would come into consideration. It’s a bet to nothing really. If he goes to the Ballymore I’ll be cheering him on there too because I have him at 8s for that as well as a refund on the supreme bet.

870d75049baa639686cf44f53412050e.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
The snow arriving today is due to remain over the weekend (as my LRF site predicted a fortnight back), turning to sleet on Sunday and rain early next week - showers by the look of things.

It looks like the milder stuff coming up from the south is going to beat TBFTE in that area, hence the change from sub-zero temperatures for the following fortnight to less cold stuff but still showery through to the weekend before the festival.

It's forecasting largely dry and mild weather for the four days of the festival.

It's looking more and more like softish ground for the start, drying out through the week.
 
Probably wont happen but it covers the Ballymore bet if he did happen to reroute and if not I have a few bob to use on the handicaps. They could get far more snow than anticipated like we did here in Ireland Tuesday night.

Anyone recommend a good haunt for the Monday before the festival? Arriving early that morning.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Couldn’t agree more and there’s zero downside to the bet. I’ve just had a fair whack at it and fully expect to get my money back next weekend but if he does run :D
 
Last edited:
I'm in too K.A thanks for pointing this out I was completely oblivious I thought all bookies had removed him from the market and thought the 14's on oddschecker was just another blip on them not updating but it is actually available. I've had £80 on the nut at that price which isn't a reflection of lack of confidence, rather an anorexic betting bank haha. If you have the funds available you might as well max them out on it...appreciate that for some of the shrewder guys that probably amounts to just one Banana but surely worth a few quid on Mothers account.
 
Last edited:
I'm not sure I could fancy Samcro for the Supreme.

I might be tempted by 20/1 but not 8s.

I think his recent win over two miles reads like a Jeffrey Archer novel.
 
Back
Top