cheltenham 2017

suspect the chickens came home to roost for un de sceaux in terms of two things

1) taken on for the lead
2) faster ground

mullins was on record saying he didn't seem to go as well on it after he beat just cameron by a few lengths at punchestown last year.

was disappointed by how little he seemed to find off the bridle. coming down the hill he looked to have the race at his mercy.
 
I suspect they will go for Gold with Douvan - if he was obviously only a two miler it might be different - but as Djakadam has been exposed as unlikely to be good enough and Vautour as a probable non-stayer I suspect they may go for it .
 
NHughes said:
According to oddschecker racebets are NRNB for the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup
It doesn’t state that on racebets site so I am sending them an email to double check
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I thought it too good to be true, taken down from oddschecker now

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Ruby got it horribly wrong in my opinion. He went like crazy to try and head Special Tiara from the tapes, and gave up when he realised he was fighting a losing battle. He then tried to go again from the top of the hill. After those two efforts there was no way he'd left anything for the end of the race and that's the way it worked out. In the circumstances, finishing second was remarkable.

I'd fancy him to turn the form around with Sprinter if they meet again, assuming it's over two miles.
 
His run at Punchestown last April kind of told us this could happen on the better ground. Throw in ST aswell then he was going to be vulnerable.
 
He is very good but no more than that. Sprinter miles better at his best and not much between them now. Nod would have to be given to Sprinter given last week.

It was a strange brutal race which is what QM should be. SS kicking earlier than normal, after UDS and ST went for it a few furlongs before. Ruby I think thought Nico went early and was hoping that SS would come back. He walked from the last but UDS and ST couldnt go any quicker. Gods Own very well suited to how the race was run.
 
Maruco said:
Ruby got it horribly wrong in my opinion. He went like crazy to try and head Special Tiara from the tapes, and gave up when he realised he was fighting a losing battle. He then tried to go again from the top of the hill. After those two efforts there was no way he'd left anything for the end of the race and that's the way it worked out. In the circumstances, finishing second was remarkable.

I'd fancy him to turn the form around with Sprinter if they meet again, assuming it's over two miles.
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pacewise totally agree...a case of Ruby thinking even after going that fast he was still on the best hoss in the race..thats ok if its a very superior horse...UDS is a very good hoss..not Frankel like though..he showed the oppo no respect really..a mistake..he don't make many though. But on the day SS bested him and he himself wasn't far off that pace..he was tatored after the last..but less tatored than those behind..the race was a war of attrition...SS relished that battle..UDS didn't. For pure heart and will to win..SS the better animal. Ratings only measure a horse when a race usually suits..you can't really measure will to win when pushed to extreme like in this race...until it happens..it happened..SS has it in spades...UDS flash when dominating,,,not so.. when not doing that
 
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When UDS beat SDG I said that SDG was an unreliable yardstick and everyone said no Traffic Fluide had improved

Now again out come the UDS defenders...It was the ground no way can Special Tiara have run the race of his life.
and it's only a coincidence Gods Own finished the same distance back as he did in the Arkle.

This may give an idea of what UDS and Co were up against.

Not only did a faster time this year than he did when beating Cue Card but he covered the last 3 fences in exactly the same time as he did in 2012.

The Arkle GOOD (Good to soft in places; 7.3 TIME 3m 51.10s (fast by 0.90s)

The QMCC GOOD (Good to soft in places) 7.3 TIME 3m 48.90s (fast by 3.10s)

Make of that whatever you like but it tells me he wasn't a kick in the ass off his best the other day
 
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Maruco said:
Ruby got it horribly wrong in my opinion. He went like crazy to try and head Special Tiara from the tapes, and gave up when he realised he was fighting a losing battle. He then tried to go again from the top of the hill. After those two efforts there was no way he'd left anything for the end of the race and that's the way it worked out. In the circumstances, finishing second was remarkable.

I'd fancy him to turn the form around with Sprinter if they meet again, assuming it's over two miles.
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That doesn't make sense to me. The idea was to take the sting out of Sprinter Sacre's tail and kick on from 3 out as they knew that is when Sprinter would likely make his move. Ruby rode the perfect race the horse wasn't good enough simple as.

You seem to forget that Sprinter Sacre can cover the ground at Cheltenham from 4 out faster than just about any other horse in training. You go slower and all you do is give yourself a bigger hill to climb.

He has awesome speed and as we saw UDS couldn't match it so changing tactics wont help.

To me that's the first time he's raced against a top class horse at his best and he picked the wrong one to waltz with
 
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CH - Faugheen
QM - Douvan
Ryanair - Vroum Vroum Mag
World Hurdle - Nichols Canyon
Gold Cup - Vautour
Arkle - Min
JLT - Yorkhill
 
someone who thinks Sprinter Sacre is ack to his needs to go to the doctor
It was great to see him winning but is running , he posted in my figs 170 last Weds (at his best was a 194)
 
so he was 24lbs below his best but won the race in a faster time than his Arkle win and faster than his last QMCC chase win beating a horse that was rated higher than the horses he beat way back then 172 and 155

How do you work out your ratings out.... with a abacus?

I said he wasn't a kick in the ass off his best and I am fooking sure he wasn't 22lbs or whatever below his best..that's comic book ratings
 
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I'd struggle to put SS above 180 this time much as he was star of the week. Douvan's Arkle was faster under less pressure on softer ground and he'll surely kick ass next year if he stays fit. No way up in distance, again as long as the others stay fit.
 
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the time factor comparison you posted Tanlic is a little misleading though ..well no..a lot really....because the official timing method has changed. The old times are on average 3 to 4 seconds slower than the way they are done now.

But we can remove that effect

To remove the start factor error that was prevalent in 2012 its better to look at both races timed from the first fence

First fence to finish

Sprinter Sacre... Arkle 2012 = 219.1
Sprinter Sacre... QMCC 2016 = 220.8

worth bearing in mind as well that in 2012 SS won a race that wasn't truly run..so he could have run an even better overall time than he did.

in 2012 SS ran to the first fence on the far side 13 lengths slower than par for this trip......in the QMCC he ran it 8 lengths faster than par

thats two different pace scenarios which in 2012 damaged his final time. because to run your best overall time you need to be nearer par in that early section....he could have run faster in 2012 because once you lose that early time..you can't make it back up

as it is,,he has run faster in 2012 anyway.....in 2012 he ran 8.5 lengths faster than the he did last week...and if had raced evenly in 2012 he would have run another second faster overall if using the sectional mark up method based on finishing % compared to par ..which makes his 2012 performance about 10/12lbs better than winning the QMCC last week

thats using the clock..so then on to form

form wise..lets pretend SS hadn't run..what rating would UDS get for beating 168 rated Special Tiara a nose..169?..beating 162 rated [on good] Gods Own by 5 lengths?..169?

we would be saying...oooh UDS has under performed only beating ST by that much

imo UDS did underperform..because even if you hated the horse's guts..he is better than Special Tiara when on song isn't he?

159 rated Gods Own back in 4th confirms the rating for ST + UDS..he is about a 162 hoss on good ground..he has ran to the lb of that here...again confirming that UDS has only run to the same as ST..with SS 4lb better.

you can't go much higher than 172 for SS winning last week..on form or on the clock..well you can..but its fantasy..if you put him higher then Gods Own and ST have suddenly improved..highly unlikely as both are established performers

i don't even know why its so important to want him to back to his imperious best......he clearly isn't the same hoss as he was..but the good news is..he can still win the QMCC..thats quite something
 
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I think UDS was under par on the ground but still a stretch to get SS above 175. Good story though.
 
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reet hard said:
Special Tiara's better on quicker ground, UDS on softer. Make your own mind up how much of a swing that entails.
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That's how it should be, I reckon, but too often people put up an opinion on here but it is dismissed in very disrespectful terms.
 
I haven't done my figures yet but I'll be rating SS value for 10 lengths. That's how far clear he went before the exertion of making his move when he did took its toll close home. De Boinville wasn't to know UDS would find nothing off the bridle so he kicked on while the horse was going well. Would he have won by 10 if the jockey had held on to him for half a furlong? I really have no idea.

I'm also in no dout SS was a long way below his very best. I've never been able to get Gods Own above 160 and can see no angle here that would get him above that. That wold only put Sprinter Sacre on 169 (very similar to sunybay's figure) without taking into account his true superiority on the day.

I think 175 is about right.

Calling EC1: would you reckon SS is worth a mark up based on the sectionals?
 
yes...He gets a 2lb mark up for the pace DO..so would finalise on approx 174 timefigure..should have mentioned that..the handicapper won't give a mark up though for times...,,it will be interesting to see how he rates him without bumping up GO or ST..and they way too long in tooth to be improvers

i doubt he would won by 10 DO unless he had sat further back by a fair few lengths ..and then you take on trust if he would have made the ground up.

I don't believe the race was a pace collapse..it was actually similar pace ..faster finish than some...to other QMCC's..they do tend to be ferocious pace races in the main..there are a few i have timed that were slower finishing %...Azertyuiop's year was 96.7% compared to last weeks 99.6% for one..well chief and sizing europe were 98.5%

so historically..it was just an average run QMCC:blink:
 
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