cheltenham 2017

Do we have the sectionals to compare with Douvan?

I would be amazed if they keep Douvan for the QMCC it is not impossible but I suspect Mullins would be very keen to give UDS another go and I think Ricci will be desperate to win the GC after this year.
 
they don't compare at all as Douvans win was a completely different pace make up..a lot slower early..i've posted loads of similar pace make up comparisons with other hosses over the last week...now they were informative due to similar pace...there is more interest in old episodes of jim'll fix it

TForm will have them somewhere..the douvan v SS one tells you zilch tbh
 
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Excellent debate. I thought what SS done visually was incredible. SS appeared to go over the top turning in. Gods Own etc were probably flattered by their finish position in relation to the winner.
 
Tanlic said:
so he was 24lbs below his best but won the race in a faster time than his Arkle win and faster than his last QMCC chase win beating a horse that was rated higher than the horses he beat way back then 172 and 155

How do you work out your ratings out.... with a abacus?

I said he wasn't a kick in the ass off his best and I am fooking sure he wasn't 22lbs or whatever below his best..that's comic book ratings
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you dont have to be an expert to see how Sprinter jumped fences 4 years ago and how does now


Also my abacus rates Cue Card and Flemenstar some pounds better than Special Tiara and Gods Own


the doubt is if he is 20 or 25 worse than his best
 
Ardross said:
I would be amazed if they keep Douvan for the QMCC it is not impossible but I suspect Mullins would be very keen to give UDS another go and I think Ricci will be desperate to win the GC after this year.
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the owner of UDS will cook breakfast for Ricci and Ruby next Festival

I imagine UDS will have a winter campaign and could bypass the festival
 
sunybay said:
the owner of UDS will cook breakfast for Ricci and Ruby next Festival

I imagine UDS will have a winter campaign and could bypass the festival
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Wins an Arkle and finishes second in a QM the following year 😕 I have always felt the horse was slightly overrated and appreciate that Mullins et all have unprecedented depth and options but skipping the festival would be lunacy, Ryanair horse for me on good ground and the QM on softer.
 
sunybay said:
the owner of UDS will cook breakfast for Ricci and Ruby next Festival

I imagine UDS will have a winter campaign and could bypass the festival
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was there last wednesday and saw o'connell and his family walking among the masses toward the pre-parade ring just before the coral cup in their coloured scarves

a world away from the ricci's

hope the horses running plans don't get too swallowed up by the bigger owners but it's hard to be surprised if they are
 
EC1 said:
i doubt he would won by 10 DO unless he had sat further back by a fair few lengths ..and then you take on trust if he would have made the ground up.
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My point, though, is that SS did go 10 clear and paid for it in the last half-furlong. I reckon if he'd delivered his run [without necessarily being further back than he was] after they'd straightened up he'd have been 10 clear at the line. It's speculation, though, obviously, but it's the kind of interpretation of a race which has served me well in the same way that your pace analysis serves you well.

Edit: Correction - SS only went eight clear after the last. I'll need to peg him back 2lbs.
 
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yeah, thats what i was thinking. Also, think you might be dismissing that UDS deliberately didnt chase SS when he was making his move. (Either he couldnt or was hoping NdB went too early). Not that he could have lived with him inanyway, but think he was let go, so I would question that all racing conventionally, that he would have been 8l clear.
 
I watched the race again a few moments ago, after reading EC1's take and the Timeform sectional analysis.

I really think Ruby knew UDS was going at maximum speed and SS simply had a gear that UDS (and ST) didn't. Ruby is more experienced that De Boinville in these situations and probably thought - correctly in the big scheme of things - that SS had gone too soon. Then again, maybe he thought SS is away and clear so might as well focus on beating ST to the line.

I'm not convinced, either, that UDS was at his absolute best on the day. Then again, he's been used to disposing of duffers in dead rubbers. Maybe this was the first time the gun was put to his head and he isn't the superstar they/we thought.

But at least it has left us with something to debate :)
 
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I agree he'll never be seen at 2m 4f. He's an out and out 2miler. If they do begin upping him in trip they'll be clutching at straws.

Settling better? Yes, but marginally.

Continue to mature? I wouldn't want to be putting my money on that. He's so hard on himself, he could well be one to blow out prematurely from the game.
 
EC1 said:
not to me..if the pace make up was similar..then yes..it would be..as they aren't..it isn't..imo

the Vautour v Altior one was..but no one found it so

times and sectionals bore most punters..its for the best really
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Surely that is why it is interesting- the pace make up between top novice and top championship events can be so very different .
 
EC1 said:
the time factor comparison you posted Tanlic is a little misleading though ..well no..a lot really....because the official timing method has changed. The old times are on average 3 to 4 seconds slower than the way they are done now.

But we can remove that effect

To remove the start factor error that was prevalent in 2012 its better to look at both races timed from the first fence

First fence to finish

Sprinter Sacre... Arkle 2012 = 219.1
Sprinter Sacre... QMCC 2016 = 220.8 Excuses aside this is the equivalent of 20lbs is it

worth bearing in mind as well that in 2012 SS won a race that wasn't truly run..so he could have run an even better overall time than he did.
in 2012 SS ran to the first fence on the far side 13 lengths slower than par for this trip......in the QMCC he ran it 8 lengths faster than par (Again saving energy against using up energy)

thats two different pace scenarios which in 2012 damaged his final time. because to run your best overall time you need to be nearer par in that early section....he could have run faster in 2012 because once you lose that early time..you can't make it back up (That is complete garbage...the ground Sprinter Sacre 2012 made up on Sprinter Sacre 2016 between the 4th last and the 3rd last must have been 12 to 15 lengths there's no way he could do that if he had expended an extra 15 lengths of energy earlier)

as it is,,he has run faster in 2012 anyway.....in 2012 he ran 8.5 lengths faster than the he did last week...and if had raced evenly in 2012 he would have run another second faster overall if using the sectional mark up method based on finishing % compared to par ..which makes his 2012 performance about 10/12lbs better than winning the QMCC last week.(he did his balls run 8.5 lengths faster....since when did 1 second = 8.5 lengths?) (Side by side video from the 1st fence shows it as under 3 lengths time says 4 lengths )

thats using the clock..so then on to form

form wise..lets pretend SS hadn't run..what rating would UDS get for beating 168 rated Special Tiara a nose..169?..beating 162 rated [on good] Gods Own by 5 lengths?..169? (Lets pretend you never came up with the same crap with Traffic Fluide when it suited you)

we would be saying...oooh UDS has under performed only beating ST by that much

imo UDS did underperform..because even if you hated the horse's guts..he is better than Special Tiara when on song isn't he?

159 rated Gods Own back in 4th confirms the rating for ST + UDS..he is about a 162 hoss on good ground..he has ran to the lb of that here...again confirming that UDS has only run to the same as ST..with SS 4lb better.

you can't go much higher than 172 for SS winning last week..on form or on the clock..well you can..but its fantasy..if you put him higher then Gods Own and ST have suddenly improved..highly unlikely as both are established performers (ST has always given the impression he could beat anything on his day and you can't bring Gods own into it really......or can we get really silly and bring Dodging Bullets and SDG in and rate Sprinter off them but that doesn't suit your argument does it?)
i don't even know why its so important to want him to back to his imperious best......he clearly isn't the same hoss as he was..but the good news is..he can still win the QMCC..thats quite something
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You have this idea in your head that horses are machines (Clocks) now while the clock can't lie horses will make complete fools of you by running either way above their best or way below it because on that certain day everything went great or it was a disaster. Like Master Minded did it once ..a performance never to be repeated.

The clock says Sprinter has run up to something like his best but you say he has run a 172 making the excuse ST finished too close..........before it was TF had improved and UDS was the greatest.

Here's a horse for you Somersby.....Sprinter Scare has beaten him about 14 lengths every time they have met and he just did it again.

Love the way you switch things around to try and prove yourself right :p

Thought I'd look back some old results master Minded beats Somersby 166 by 3 lengths gets a 178 rating Sprinter Scare beats UDS rated 172 and you want to give him 172........Joke or what?
 
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archie said:
I'd struggle to put SS above 180 this time much as he was star of the week. Douvan's Arkle was faster under less pressure on softer ground and he'll surely kick ass next year if he stays fit. No way up in distance, again as long as the others stay fit.
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I wouldn't know what to give Sprinter Sacre to be honest.

In the QMCC he has been dragged round by 2 of the fastest front runners in 2 milers in history but between the 3rd last and 2nd last still managed to find an extra gear to destroy them
It took it's toll but it was an awesome performance in anyone's book.

Such was the early pace inn my opinion had Nico gone 4 out then he would have most likely been beaten.

If they had gone what you would regard as a normal pace then that 4 out turbo boost would have set in and he'd have doubled the winning distance IMO.

UDS and ST are one paced, very fast paced horses and don't know how to run any other way so stopping them from doing their thing wouldn't help it would just have made Sprinter's job easier
 
Tanlic said:
You have this idea in your head that horses are machines (Clocks) now while the clock can't lie horses will make complete fools of you by running either way above their best or way below it because on that certain day everything went great or it was a disaster. Like Master Minded did it once ..a performance never to be repeated.

The clock says Sprinter has run up to something like his best but you say he has run a 172 making the excuse ST finished too close..........before it was TF had improved and UDS was the greatest.

Here's a horse for you Somersby.....Sprinter Scare has beaten him about 14 lengths every time they have met and he just did it again.

Love the way you switch things around to try and prove yourself right :p

Thought I'd look back some old results master Minded beats Somersby 166 by 3 lengths gets a 178 rating Sprinter Scare beats UDS rated 172 and you want to give him 172........Joke or what?
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hang on..it was you who brought up the clock..you quoted INCORRECT overall times that misled the argument..your argument was that 2012 SS ran faster..he didn't..it was the timing method that changed..when you get it wrong..why not admit it?

you are also struggling with basic maths..220.8 minus 219.1 isn't 1 second.....its 1.7 seconds...which is 8.5 lengths as i stated.

You think a horse that improves a stone each time he runs..traffic fluide..is the same type of horse as Gods Own and Special Tiara?..you seriously believe that?. Where is the evidence they have improved?..have they shown forward steps in their last 3 runs like TF has?..can you point out where they have ..or look remotely like having a progression to run in the mid 170's

you want to ignore ST and Gods own..well how exactly can you do that?.what are you basing argument on?.ST has run to his best here..well..if he hasn't then it makes SS even lower rated doesn't it..ST is a 168 hoss..SS beat him by 4 lengths...what you going to do?...make SS a 180 and ST a 176?

if you want to make it that SS is a 185 hoss or whatever figure you fancy..on what he did last week..go for it..i personally don't agree...i also don't have an allegiance when i do ratings..i go by what i see..you disagree..thats your prerogative

but one thing you are clearly wrong about..the clock does not in anyway say that last week was better than 2012
 
EC1 said:
hang on..it was you who brought up the clock..you quoted INCORRECT overall times that misled the argument..your argument was that 2012 SS ran faster..he didn't..it was the timing method that changed..when you get it wrong..why not admit it?

you are also struggling with basic maths..220.8 minus 219.1 isn't 1 second.....its 1.7 seconds...which is 8.5 lengths as i stated.

You think a horse that improves a stone each time he runs..traffic fluide..is the same type of horse as Gods Own and Special Tiara?..you seriously believe that?. Where is the evidence they have improved?..have they shown forward steps in their last 3 runs like TF has?..can you point out where they have ..or look remotely like having a progression to run in the mid 170's

you want to ignore ST and Gods own..well how exactly can you do that?.what are you basing argument on?.ST has run to his best here..well..if he hasn't then it makes SS even lower rated doesn't it..ST is a 168 hoss..SS beat him by 4 lengths...what you going to do?...make SS a 180 and ST a 176?

if you want to make it that SS is a 185 hoss or whatever figure you fancy..on what he did last week..go for it..i personally don't agree...i also don't have an allegiance when i do ratings..i go by what i see..you disagree..thats your prerogative

but one thing you are clearly wrong about..the clock does not in anyway say that last week was better than 2012
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Spot on post
 
Desert Orchid said:
My point, though, is that SS did go 10 clear and paid for it in the last half-furlong. I reckon if he'd delivered his run [without necessarily being further back than he was] after they'd straightened up he'd have been 10 clear at the line. It's speculation, though, obviously, but it's the kind of interpretation of a race which has served me well in the same way that your pace analysis serves you well.

Edit: Correction - SS only went eight clear after the last. I'll need to peg him back 2lbs.
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TF have given him a 175..their ratings are usually a few higher than OHR's ..they had him on 190 didn't they in his pomp?..so the time figure of 172+2lb mark up looks fair DO

so according to TF he has is 15lbs below his pomp..which just shows what an animal he is to still be able to take a QMCC
 
TF ratings on the day were

UDS 191p

Sprinter Sacre 182

Special Tiara 177

That was so far off the mark it is Laughable.

Am I meant to believe that Sprinter Sacre was at the top of his form at Kempton?

That's what this result is telling me if Special Tiara has not improved a jot in fact Sprinter has regressed a couple of pounds since Kempton

What I have to believe is that UDS was the 180p horse Timeform said he was and he just ran a complete stinker and no way did he run his race.

They now have Sprinter Scare on 175..no wait for it..they have UDS on 174p

Now either I am completely ******* stupid but if UDS ran to a 174p then Special Tiara surely ran a personal best of 174 and if he did then Sprinter Sacre ran to a 178..

That's how fucked up ratings and times can be,

At the end of the day those who said UDS would beat Sprinter Scare were wrong. Those who thought he was the better horse were wrong and I was ******* right.

So wrote all the shyte you like you were WRONG !!!!!!:p:p:(
 
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