Cheltenham Festival: Preview Nights

Jones's book is invaluable as it's one of the few publications which breaks down relative stats for all races, but I wouldn't pay tuppence to listen to him and the essays in the book (all 200 odd pages of it) are long winded nonsense on the whole, - twenty pages of form and stats would be much better. He does an update through the week when he will doubtless abandon his methods and recommend every hot tip he gets told in the pub.
 
Desert Orchid said:
*** - all 16 Feltham winners to run in this race have been beaten
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I'd take more notice of this if every Feltham winner actually got to the RSA Chase. I think it only happens about half the time (in the last 20 years or so at least), and the likes of Gloria Victis (RPR 177) and Strong Flow (RPR 169) would surely have put it to bed if they'd run in it.
 
Colin Russel in today's Racing Post reports from the Yorkshire Racing Club's preview where 'Timeform's British ratings maestro' described Alfie Sherrin as 'the biggest (handicap) certainty since Unsinkable Boxer won in 1998' going on to say 'I'd back him with top-weight, and he's in at 10st 10lb at present. In fact I reckon he'd be placed in the World Hurdle if he were to run in it.' High praise indeed!
 
davidjohnson said:
Colin Russel in today's Racing Post reports from the Yorkshire Racing Club's preview where 'Timeform's British ratings maestro' described Alfie Sherrin as 'the biggest (handicap) certainty since Unsinkable Boxer won in 1998' going on to say 'I'd back him with top-weight, and he's in at 10st 10lb at present. In fact I reckon he'd be placed in the World Hurdle if he were to run in it.' High praise indeed!
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What does "Timeform's Class 7 AW ratings maestro" think?
 
That it's usually best to agree! The Newbury form does look remarkably strong, and you can also upgrade the effort given he raced closer to the strong pace than those that got closest to him.
 
rorydelargy said:
Jones's book is invaluable as it's one of the few publications which breaks down relative stats for all races, but I wouldn't pay tuppence to listen to him and the essays in the book (all 200 odd pages of it) are long winded nonsense on the whole, - twenty pages of form and stats would be much better. He does an update through the week when he will doubtless abandon his methods and recommend every hot tip he gets told in the pub.
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You've hit the nail on the head.

Lovely book, and whilst I agree about the waffle, it's at least good to read when you're looking forward to Cheltenham.

Those updates are not great - I received them one year, and despite the fact he was selecting 3/4 horses per race, some of which went against his trends, he was struggling to find a winner.

Best to buy the book, make some sense of the trends and leave it at that.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
I'd take more notice of this if every Feltham winner actually got to the RSA Chase. I think it only happens about half the time (in the last 20 years or so at least), and the likes of Gloria Victis (RPR 177) and Strong Flow (RPR 169) would surely have put it to bed if they'd run in it.
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Gloria Victis might just as possibly have fallen in the RSA. I've had RSA winners higher than 169 too.

I'm not a great stats man. I tend to view them as interesting coincidences and only home in on what I perceive to be meaningful ones, which are few and far between, and even then they have to be taken on their individual merits, as do the horses highlighted by them.

I agree about PJ's book. It's a very laborious read (and the copy I picked up 'free' at Carlisle is littered with typos so I presume it was part of a trial batch before it was properly proof-read.) I'm only half way through it!

I bought this book a number of years ago but I don't know if it was PJ that wrote it. It was the year Like A Butterfly won the nov hdle. The stats were all against it age-wise so I decide what I'd thought was a banker bet maybe wasn't after all and I ended up punting some donkey while LAB sauntered clear. That book cost me a small fortune in the first two days alone. I shudder to think how many stats were busted apart. I think I binned it on the Wednesday night, too late to recover enough on the final day.
 
Like-A-Butterly didn't saunter clear, DO - she was all-out to beat Westender, and would almost certainly have been beaten if Adamant Approach had stood-up at the last.
 
Grasshopper said:
Like-A-Butterly didn't saunter clear, DO - she was all-out to beat Westender, and would almost certainly have been beaten if Adamant Approach had stood-up at the last.
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When you've done yer dough the way I did, the winner could be getting whacked with a neanderthal's club and I'd still see it sauntering. I allow myself a bit of descriptive licence in such circumstances.
 
Towcester

Always a fun night, probably the best on the circuit with the maximum capacity of 300 seats all filled which also had an added twist this year. You knew it was going to be one of those nights when a Jethro impersonator introduced the panel. Said panel comprised of M.C. Robert Cooper whose dry wit worked perfectly in tandem with panellists headed by Paddy Brennan (PB) who has a strong book of rides next week, Raceform, GG.Com journalist and multiple Scoop6 winner Andrew Mount (AM) who was dressed for the occasion in countryman gentlemen attire, the inimitable Mark Winstanley (MW) who was also dressed for the occasion in a Green Bay Packers puffa jacket and shellsuit tracksuit bottoms and the belly from the telly Gary Wiltshire (GW) who kept us up to speed with the market moves but didn’t contribute to all races. Timeform’s Kieran Packman had been struck down with flu so was a non-runner so rather than leave a void, innovative chaps that they are, Towcester’s team plucked an audience member from obscurity to appear as his replacement after asking for a show of hands who wanted to take his place. Gavin Gibson was his name or Betting Shop Man (BSM) as we are going to call him, and he wasn’t short on a controversial opinion it is fair to say! He certainly divided the audience whether the bold move to have him on or not but he wasn’t a mug, he knew his stuff. He appeared on the panel so his views are also listed.

SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE

PB: Dunguib is my banker of the Festival and I am very happy he is not taking me on in the Champion Hurdle where I ride Khyber Kim. He’s a certainty and will love the better ground being by Presenting. I honestly think he could win by 20 lengths.

MW: All the Irish are backing Dunguib, even Father Ted has returned to back him. However the other jocks know he is the one to beat and has an inexperienced rider so they won’t be making it easy for him so he is a lay at 4/6. It was the same story for Cousin Vinny last year. Blackstairmountain is a bit of value against him but the lay is the bet of the race.

AM: I don’t think we should be worried about Dunguib’s jumping as his mistakes were in small fields and on testing ground. I wouldn’t back him at Evens but I wouldn’t want to lay him either.

GW: I really don’t think Dunguib will start odds-on as he is already around Evens on Betfair and that dictates the on-course market. The word is he also finished with sore shins last time. I would lay him and the bookies will want to lay him.

BSM: I can’t have Menorah or Oscar Whisky and Dunguib is too short so a small each-way bet on Get Me Out Of Here is the call.

ARKLE TROPHY

PB: Henrietta Knight wraps her horses up a little but she can certainly train them for the day that matters and I like Somersby most. I don’t think Riverside Theatre is good enough to win as I rode against him last time and although he won well in the end, Barry was shaking at him earlier.

MW: I want to take on Captain Cee Bee whose jumping isn’t good enough and is a nine-year-old. I’ve backed Sports Line and Riverside Theatre. Mullins’ horses worked at Gowran a couple of days ago and I asked which worked best and was told it was Sports Line.

AM: Sports Line probably paid for getting in a battle last time but the one I like is Somersby and I am not worried about his longish absence coming from this yard.

GW: I did fancy Long Run but he goes for the RSA Chase.

BSM: I like Captain Cee Bee. I know good judges think he is underpriced but he gave Binocular 8lbs and a beating in the Supreme. The one horse I can’t have is Somersby who has won just two four-runner races and I don’t like the way she has trained it. Best Mate must have been a wonder horse for her to train him to win three Gold Cups!

CHAMPION HURDLE

PB: I couldn’t have given Khyber Kim a worse ride in the Greatwood as held him right out the back but then they hacked so for him to win was an unbelievable performance. He’s a Ferrari. He proved it was no fluke in the Boylesports when he beat Celestial Halo but I felt he was better in the Greatwood. I was praying they wouldn’t run him in the Totesport Trophy as that could have taken the edge off him. If he runs I don’t think Solwhit has the speed and I rate Go Native my main danger. Good-to-soft will be okay for my fellow.

MW: I’ve been with Go Native all season who kicked on too early when he won the Supreme. He is all speed and there is no substitute for speed in the Champion Hurdle. Celestial Halo could be the only front runner which makes him interesting if he were to slow it down and he could get the run of the race. I would not be surprised if he turns up with something different this year and I better not say anything more. Starluck is a million for me as won’t get up the hill. There was mucus found in Solwhit’s system and the same problem for Pittoni so I would be worried about the Byrnes horses running next week.

AM: No strong view at the top of the market but I do feel that Donnas Palm is overpriced at 50/1.

BSM: I backed Zaynar before it got beat at Kelso as on a line through Starluck he has the beating of Go Native but they have got to make a lot more use of him. I think Khyber Kim needs more cut and also wants a real gallop and not sure he will get that this year if Ruby slows it up in front on Celestial Halo.

TUESDAY SHOULDER RACES (basically only the William Hill Trophy)

PB: I was on a panel with Alan King last night and he came across with very honest opinions and he was very keen on Bensalem in the William Hill Chase. Razor Royale probably runs in the same race but it may come a bit quick for him.

MW: Character Building has had a wind op this year but I am a Bensalem man off that mark. I just don’t like The Package as a horse – never have.

AM: I am also keen on Bensalem and think his jumping will improve for a bigger field and faster pace. Theatrical Moment may be a right-handed track horse.

BSM: I think Bensalem needs more cut. I like Theatrical Moment who has won his last two novice chases and the big field should suit.

NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE

PB: Rite Of Passage looks the one to beat.

MW: Rite Of Passage is one of the lays of the meeting. They lumped on him in the Bumper last year but like the other Weld horses at the Festibal he was another that got beat. Rumours are he has had a wind problem and the form of his hurdles wins is awful. I’ve had a proper bet on Quel Esprit and I heard his blood wasn’t quite right when he was beaten last time. There will be more money for him.

AM: Rite Of Passage has not taken on anything of note over hurdles. Maybe I am biased as I have a share in Reve De Sivola but I think he is the value at 12/1. His hurdling has to improve but he has been well schooled since he won the Challow where he beat Finians Rainbow who is half his price. If he hurdled better that day he could have won five or ten lengths. He goes well fresh so has been deliberately kept back for this.

BSM: Rite Of Passage didn’t come down the hill in the Bumper last year. I’d be worried about the ground for Reve De Sivola and Peddlers Cross just can not win. Summit Meeting is a bit of value at 16/1 and had his form franked at the weekend.

RSA CHASE

PB: Sam is under pressure on Long Run and he will blamed if it goes wrong. I don’t think Diamond Harry gets up the hill. I won on Weird Al at Wetherby and he is a good horse and has a chance.

MW: I couldn’t understand why Waley-Cohen took the outside route at Warwick on Long Run when the horse was jumping to his right – I thought he went to public school! I can’t have him at the price as he just hurdles too many fences. Burton Port could be the one. Sneaky old Henderson wanted to run him at Aintree as he has two already in the race but Hemmings said no. My contact at the yard says he just does not stop improving and McCoy has been booked so I see him starting nearer 10/1 at the off. I just don’t think the Weird Al formlines are strong enough.

AM: Diamond Harry has yet to run a bad race but his jumping at Newbury was a worry. Also not sure he is quite good enough. I like Weapon’s Amnesty so I hope the mucus problem at the yard has not extended to him. He has done it before at the meeting. Long Run strikes me more as an Aintree horse.

GW: Waley-Cohen gets some stick but he still seems to get them home.

BSM: Long Run is just a five-year-old so only receives 1lb and his rider can’t claim either so the way I see it is that he effectively has overweight. I’m all over Punchestowns. It’s a weapon. Weird Al has been beating rotting corpses this season and Diamond Harry needs it soft.

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE

PB: I was second to Master Minded at Newbury and if he runs like that again he wins though there is a danger he was so good he may have left his race behind. He’s miles ahead of last year’s Arkle form.

MW: Master Minded is not for me at the price and still being judged on his win in this race two years ago. He only did what he was entitled to at Newbury. I’ve gone with Arkle form that always seems to work out in this race and backed Kalahari King and Forpadydeplasterer who both also look like getting their decent ground. I can’t have Kalahari King out of the frame who is an each-way thieves horse. I also can’t have Twist Magic running well. McCoy has been booked for Forpadydeplasterer and he looks the ideal partner for him.

AM: Kalahari King is the one. Forpady needs a strong pace and good ground which he has not had since last year’s Arkle so I also see a big run from him.

GW: No view except I can’t have Twist Magic.

BSM: Master Minded should be 1-3 if back to his best. Kalahari King e/w is the only possible bet.

WEDNESDAY SHOULDER RACES

PB: Pettifour has a very good chance of running into a place in the NH Chase and he will definitely stay.

MW: O’Grady is keen on Capellanus in the Fred Winter and I’ve been told that Hidden Universe is the best of Weld’s in the Bumper but with Smullen riding he will have two and a half stones of lead weight in the saddle. Drunbaloo has been well backed recently and is the form horse of the Bumper and I think the gamble will continue. I was told that Quantitativeeasing worked very well this morning and he could be very well in off 139 in the Coral Cup.

AM: Barwell Bridge interests me for the Fred Winter if he runs here rather than the Triumph as does Abbeybraney in the NH Chase who was second to Notre Pere on testing ground two years ago. Beshabar is favourite for the Coral Cup but he looks best going right-handed.

RYANAIR CHASE

PB: Poquelin looks the best bet of the meeting at the prices. He slaughtered Razor Royale at Cheltenham and I then won the Racing Post Chase on him. I think Poquelin is a much better horse than Tranquil Sea.

MW: This is a two horse race and I have backed Poquelin big and saved on Tranquil Sea. Cheltenham form means a lot in this race. Voy Por Ustedes has gone and Barbers Shop is a dodgepot. The ambulance boys will have their binoculars firmly glued on Richard Johnson on Planet Of Sound.

AM: My problem with Tranquil Sea is they gave him a recent prep before the last two Festivals and he disappointed both times here and they have given him another recent prep.

GW: If you can get 2/1 the top two combined then that is a great bet.

BSM: A small each-way stab on Planet Of Sound for me even thought I know he can’t jump. Hobbs thinks he is the best he has got.

WORLD HURDLE

PB: Big Buck’s is a cert. It’s a weak race bar Karabak and King said last night he has not been working brilliantly of late. In fact he suggested Katchit at 33/1 each-way as his bet.

MW: Big Buck’s is the most solid of the four odds-on shots. I thought I had a sneaky one in Cousin Vinny but am told he dislikes hurdles now as much as he does fences so it could be the Lincoln next!

AM: I can see Time For Rupert running well but Tidal Bay is the only realistic alternative.

BSM: Big Buck’s is buying money. There has not been a shekel on the machine for Karabak for two weeks and Sentry Duty has no chance as just beat two dodgy horses in a three runner last time.

THURSDAY SHOULDER RACES (basically only the Pertemps Final)

PB: Kayf Aramis always runs a solid race and will run well in the Pertemps Final especially as the bottom weight may be on about 10st 12lbs so the less exposed horses have less chance of getting in so it could be a flag bearer’s race.

MW: Alfie Sherrin could be miles ahead of the handicapper in the Pertemps and Ainama has clearly been plotted up for this.

AM: Elzahann is my Pertemps fancy as she caught the eye in the Cheltenham qualifier and is a spring mare but could do with Fair Along coming out as she has just 9st 7lbs.

GW: If Harry Findlay gets stuck into Alfie Sherrin I can see him starting at 3/1 especially as he will also be a public horse being Nicholls and Walsh.

TRIUMPH HURDLE (time was cracking on so they whizzed through this in 2 minutes)

MW: The worst Triumph in a long time. A man whose speed figures I note said Alaivan put up a great time last time but he is small so will a big field suit? I am worried for Notus De La Tour that he is not running in the Imperial Cup which suggests to me all is not well with him.

AM: Good ground would worry me for Alaivan.

ALBERT BARTLETT HURDLE

PB: Tell Massini reminds me of Denman. His form is on softer ground but he will still take all the beating. Alan King said he wasn’t sure if The Betchworth Kid was man enough for this.

MW: I’ve backed Shinrock Paddy who is crying out for three miles.

AM: I would oppose Restless Harry whose improvement has coincided with getting soft ground. Tell Massini looks a machine on soft ground but close to good ground would really worry me.

BSM: I am all over Enterprise Park who won over 2m and then won again stepping up to 2m6f and the form of that win is working out well. I also think Tell Massini and Restless Harry need soft ground and need to lead so they could not get their ground and cut each other’s throats and set it up for Walsh stalking on Enterprise Park.

GOLD CUP

PB: Imperial Commander’s Haydock run was no fluke and I thought I had won. I have never been going so fast at the end of a three mile chase and agree with Ruby that Kauto Star was a bit short on the day. If we finish second to Kauto Star I will be delighted as he is still a young horse and the trip is not a concern. I would be disappointed if we are not very close to Denman at worst.

MW: I can’t have Denman. Maybe the Hennessy took more out of him than we thought. I’ve backed Tricky Trickster at massive prices who is a young horse and a strong stayer and when these Nicholls horses start improving they can go through the roof. I still think 20/1 each-way now is a great bet as Cooldine won an awful RSA Chase.

AM: Cooldine has had legitimate excuses since he won the RSA and peaks at this time of the year but the one I like is Imperial Commander as the key to him is a good break between his races which he has here.

GW: I feel Denman could easily drift out to 5/1 on the day.

BSM: Imperial Commander each-way is the bet as I can’t have Cooldine as his RSA Chase form is worth nothing.

FRIDAY SHOULDER RACES (again rushed as getting late)

MW: Ashkazar is lobbed in on old form in the Martin Pipe race and he could develop into one of the big gambles of the meeting. Dave’s Dream is interesting in the Grand Annual as is a novice and trained by Henderson which are both good pointers,

An audience member then highlighted the Irish-trained Kilty Storm for the Foxhunters’, a horse he says is currently residing in his back garden! He went on to tell us all about the good horses he has beaten in Irish points and hunter chases since moving from David Pipe, an experience he hated as he needs a small stable environment which he now has.
 
SANDOWN PARK CHELTENHAM PREVIEW

Saturday, March 13th

Panel included Paul Nicholls (PN) and Nicky Henderson (NH), owner Andy Stewart (AS), Paddy Power (PP). Nick Luck compered.

SPINAL RESEARCH SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE

PN: Pepe Simo ran today so he won’t run. They are all playing for second place behind Dunguib but I know Ruby thinks Blackstairmountain will run very well.

NH: Oscar Whisky is a bonny horse with a lot of ability but probably lacks the experience. He has had each-way chance. Dunguib could get beat. I remember a horse not so long ago that got beat at odds of 1-14. General Miller will run too but Bellvano will probably wait for the County Hurdle. Oscar is our number one.

AS: Dunguib just doesn’t jump well enough and will be lucky to finish in the first three. This is going to be run at a pace that will not suit him. Get Me Out Of Here to win.

PP: If Dunguib wins punters will get their money back with us at up to £200. Any more and we would go bust! Hopefully he will be a horse of a generation and for every length he wins by Paddy Power are giving £1000 to the race sponsors, Spinal Research.

ARKLE TROPHY

PN: Woolcombe Folly still runs despite badly injuring Sam on Thursday. He has schooled well since and jumped great at Doncaster on his only start over fences. He has an outside chance, no more than that. Captain Cee Bee looks rock solid and the one to beat as Somersby lacks experience but I think it’s more open that everyone thinks.

NH: Riverside Theatre loves to be very fresh and is a very athletic horse whose preparation has gone well. Good ground will help him but I fear they may heavily water and it could be slow ground on the first day. This might sound optimistic but I can’t throw out Mad Max who we will ride more prominently this time but Captain Cee Bee is the one to beat.

AS: Captain Cee Bee’s jumping worries me. Therefore I prefer Somersby as he jumps.
PP: Sizing Europe is the forgotten horse. This race is all about jumping and he hasn’t touched a twig in his four chase wins. He’s got a great chance. All the money has been for Captain Cee Bee but he now looks too short.

CHAMPION HURDLE

PN: Celestial Halo is definitely a spring horse. He was impressive when giving 22lbs to Mamlook at Wincanton and ran well again in the Boylesports giving weight but I wish I didn’t run him in Ireland. He has schooled well in blinkers and they have made a big difference to him. We might ride a normal race on him rather than front running as he might be getting sick of that.

NH: Binocular’s jumping this season hasn’t been its usual self and he was all wrong at a few at Sandown. However, since he came back to us after we ruled him out for the season his jumping has been quick, fast and immaculate, like an Olympic athlete, in fact I was so excited I couldn’t wait to tell J P. McCoy rode him again since and was very pleased with him. I think he is genuinely in the mix and he will win a Champion Hurdle one year, I just don’t know which. Punjabi lacks sex appeal but he’s won it before and coming off a much better prep than last year. Zaynar didn’t run in an ideal trial but I am happy with him. The horse that worries me is ironically Khyber Kim as I used to train him. Mick Fitz once told me this horse could win a Champion Hurdle and an Ascot Gold Cup he was that good and he worries me.

AS: Go Native sets the standard and is the one to beat. I am worried that last season’s form is not working out.

PP: I am surprised to hear Paul say he may not make the running on Celestial Halo as I thought he could get an easy lead. Go Native is the one to beat though Khyber Kim worries me. I’m taking the view that last year’s race wasn’t the best.

RSA CHASE

PN: We weren’t going to run The Nightingale but I note Weird Al is out and, who knows, if one of Nicky’s big two comes out then we could have a go.

NH: I would ideally like to have got another run into Punchestowns who has had only two runs in chases. After his mistake at Sandown, if anyone else asks him have we schooled him since on a downhill fence then……… Of course we haven’t as that is plain stupid and no other trainer would either. Long Run is fairly freakish and hugely talented in every department bearing in mind he is only five. His age is the worry as it frightens me he is so good so young. If I had Burton Port running in another year I would be delighted. Jumping will be the crucial thing. (when pressed by Nick Luck which one he preferred, there was no comment but just the tiniest of nods when Long Run was mentioned).

AS: If the race was run at Kempton then Long Run would be a certainty but it’s not so I prefer Punchestowns. I would also be worried Long Run is just a 5yo running at Cheltenham.

PP: I prefer Punchestowns. He and Big Buck’s came so far clear in last season’s World Hurdle. Over in Ireland there are plenty of panellists tipping up Weapon’s Amnesty but I would be worried over the wellbeing of some of the yard’s big names such as Solwhit and Pittoni.

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE

PN: Master Minded did a brilliant piece of work with Kauto Star this morning. He had loads of problems last spring but I think he is back to his best of two years ago. I just couldn’t be happier with him. (didn’t even mention Twist Magic)

NH: If Master Minded wasn’t running then Petit Robin would be so we have chickened out. I think Master Minded is a superstar and will win easily so we wanted to run in a race in which he had a chance of winning rather than finishing third again.

AS: I can’t have Twist Magic at Cheltenham. If Master Minded runs a stone behind his run two years ago he wins.

PP: Paul is so confident about Master Minded it seems stupid to oppose him. I am not sure last season’s Arkle is up to much.

RYANAIR CHASE

PN: Poquelin has matured a lot this year and his jumping is now of a higher standard. His Boylesports win is working out well and he is one of my best chances of the week. He has loads of speed as well as stamina so could be better than my other two winners of this race, Thisthatandtother and Taranis. There are a lot of question marks about the others.

NH: You can blame the trainer why Barbers Shop has not won for a long time but he will win a really good race somewhere sometime. If we rode him for second in the Hennessy and King George he would have finished second but he chased after Denman and Kauto Star so didn’t stay under those circumstances. I can’t tell The Queen this but Petit Robin at 14/1 is probably the each-way bet of the race.

AS: Poquelin was favourite for the Grand Annual last year but fluffed his lines with his jumping but that department is great now. He is a good ground horse and it was testing in the Paddy Power Gold Cup when second to Tranquil Sea. If I was to have one bet at the Festival it would be on Poquelin.

PP: Tranquil Sea is one of my strongest fancies of the week and hacked up in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. O’Grady feels he acts on any ground. I think Poquelin has to improve to beat him but, in fairness, he did that in the Boylesports.

WORLD HURDLE

PN: Big Buck’s is not a great work horse. One day he will beat himself either with a flat spot or pulling up in front as he is quirky but I do feel the better the race, the better he will run. He’s a very short price.

NH: We didn’t realise it at the time but last year we acted as a pacemaker for Big Buck’s with Punchestown and we won’t be doing that again with Sentry Duty boys. He will stay 2m4f, he may stay 2m6f and, as for three miles, who knows? I was never happy watching Tidal Bay over fences and he is a real contender over hurdles.

AS: Big Buck’s is ever so well but 4/7 is a silly price as he is a quirky individual. Ruby schooled him on Friday and couldn’t be happier with him.

PP: Big Buck’s does hit a flat spot but so did Inglis Drever and he won this race three times. The only horse I can consider against him is Sentry Duty who has one run and could be produced to drop him in front right on the line.

TRIUMPH HURDLE

PN: Ruby had the choice of Advisor and Secant Star and chose Advisor as the other horse has had some problems fairly recently. He is a big scopey horse like Celestial Halo and I think he has a fantastic chance in not the best renewal.

NH: Some of my juveniles have been hyped up but they were not hyper-uppable. The Adonis was meant as an experiment for Soldatino but he looked quite good and will certainly improve for that win.

AS: The horse I have been most impressed with is Alaivan but he has not beaten anything. Advisor’s Flat rating says he is not good enough but I still like him.

PP: Carlito Brigante deserves to be favourite – he pinged every hurdle when he won at Musselburgh.

GOLD CUP

PN: Kauto Star worked very well with Master Minded this morning. When he is fresh and very fit he is lethal. Denman has improved since Newbury and will improve again between now and Friday. He worked well with Tricky Trickster today. Newbury was an unfortunate setback but he is fine form and do not write him off as he loves a battle and if he didn’t make that mistake at Newbury and Niche Market got near him I think he would have taken off. I would definitely back Tricky Trickster e/w at 20/1 as that is a massive price.

NH: I am a great Kauto Star fan and he should win and he hope he wins. Imperial Commander is a blip of a threat.

AS: I would love to see Denman come back but I can’t have Imperial Commander so expect to see Kauto Star win very easily.

PP: I hope Kauto Star hacks up. Imperial Commander is a bit forgotten and they rode him at Haydock to see if he stays but he has to improve a huge amount. He is the each-way bet of the race.

HANDICAPS

The panel were asked for just handicapper for the Festival.
PN: Sanctuaire in the Fred Winter, he’ll win.
AS: Gwanako in the Byrne Group Plate.
NH: I was going to say My Petra for the Plate as she is about to covered this weekend so will go like the wind but as Andy has suggested one in that race I will say You’re The Top in the Grand Annual and Barry will ride.
PP: Noble Prince in the County Hurdle. He wouldn’t be out of place in the Champion Hurdle
 
Official Cheltenham Preview at the racecourse last night, here's JP's report

Key to the panel:


AL: Alan Lee (Chairman) - journalist with The Times
LM: Lee Mottershead - journalist with Racing Post
MF: Mick Fitzgerald - ex-jockey and horse racing pundit
CL: Carl Llewellyn - Nigel Twiston-Davies' business partner
DT: Derek Thompson - Channel 4 presenter, racecourse commentator and "tipster"
TS: Tom Scudamore - jockey
PN: Paul Nolan - trainer


I'll be providing a JP Festival view on the panel's opinions and each race. It's not all about reporting though and it would be great to get your opinions too. So please use the Comments feature below this article to submit your thoughts. Thank you!


5.47pm Just heard that they are videoing the event for the first time this year so hopefully this will appear on youtube tomorrow. In the meantime, you'll have to make do with my ramblings.


6.48pm Serious queues at the small bar. The only consolation is that it'll be worse in 2 days time. Event is due to start in 10 mins but not much sign of activity at the moment.


7.03pm - While we're waiting why not sign up to my Weekly Update? Last one before Festival will be emailed out tomorrow.


7.07pm - We're off and running! AL is introducing the panel. CL, PN, DT, LM and MF all here.


7.10pm - TS was riding in the last at MR so not here yet. DT is going to be roving with the mic we're told. Never one to miss an opportunity he borrows AL's mic to say a few words.


7.12pm - Edward Gillespie says a few words. There are about 1000 Club badges for Friday left. No Club to be available on the door for Gold Cup day. Only 700/800 short on sales compared with last year so they'll sell more tickets this time.

7.15pm - Ed says rain on the way on Thursday/Friday. Happy with conditions.

7.18pm - Starting now with the SUPREME. They are going to cover the top 3 races each day. AL thinks Irish hurdlers he's met aren't as good as ones he will meet on Tues. PN on Dunguib - thinks jumping of Dunguib poor but better pace will help. Some racehorse he says. Can afford to kick a few out of ground. PN plugs Paddy's offer. LM - Dunguib will set tone for Festival. Thinks GMOOH will give him a test in a hurly burly contest. CL - another plug for Paddy. By far best horse in race. Machine Carl says. Mention for Oscar Whiskey if jumping doesn't come up to scratch. MF - capable of running in Champion Hurdle. Would have been 4/1 shot. Plug for Sportingbet from Mick (he is repping for them tonight). Offering evens to those here. Thinks that Dunguib will win. Likes GMOOH as has the strong from in book.

Overall, panel agree that Dunguib will win. LM thinks GMOOH at the prices. PN makes point that he can get buzzed up quite easily.

JP's view - Back the superstar Dunguib but it you don't fancy it take Paddy's pants down! Interesting point re Dunguib getting buzzed up.

7.29pm - ARKLE now. MF - thinks Captain Cee Bee is the real deal. Plugs Sportingbet's faller refund offer. CCB likes Cheltenham he says and has great chance. LM - good that Somersby finished 3rd in Supreme. Pinged fences at Sandown. Worried about CCB's mistakes. Doesn't like Sizing. Says he doesn't find for pressure. CCB looks well apparently but prefers Somersby. PN - Worries about CCB jumping. SE not impressed him although jumps well. Ruby thinks he's more of a stayer and not quick enough. Thinks Irish will win it. Sports Line runs free. Decent race he says but doesn't really plump for selection. CL - keen on Somersby. Thinks CCB jumping is poor. Worried about 2nd last and poor price. Would like to ride Somersby and thinks he would be shorter if trained by PF Nicholls. Like Riverside Theatre too. MF - Riverside T has good chance of winning. Horse is bouncing but Mick goes for CCB. LM mentions Woolcombe Folly but not strongly.

Panel overall opinion - Captain Cee Bee for the majority but no consensus. CL suggests Riverside Theatre each way.

JP's view - MF does like favourites doesn't he! I'm taking a flyer that Mad Max will improve on better ground.

7.41pm - CHAMPION HURDLE up next. CL - likes KK unsurprisingly and Celestial Halo. Puzzled by Binocular prep. KK only had 2 runs because he is good fresh. Has lots of speed. Needs to be dropped in and race will be run to suit. Doesn't like Solwhit. PN - question mark about Charles Byrne's form. No one knows what's going on re the horse. PN says there is no leakage from yard...they keep everything to themselves. Open race. Medermit unlucky last year and thinks he's good value. He likes KK and CH too but thinks wide open. Won In The Dark mentioned as good outsider. LM - confused about race. Final flight has been moved closer to winning post - only 150 yards away this year. Thinks Go Native is class horse in field. Likes CH too. Ground likely to be quicker than most opening days. MF - another plug for his sponsor for bad price for Nicky H to win. Likes Punjabi. Comes into race with no question marks. Likes blinkers on Celestial Halo. Likes Go Native...I think he's going to go for the fav again!

Panel view - no consensus. Open race.

JP's view - Good to hear CL, PN and LM agree with my view on Celestial Halo. I'm also quite keen on KK. Interesting on final flight being moved. Should help Go Native and CH I reckon. MF goes for the fav shocker!

7.54pm - NEPTUNE next. PN likes Quel Esprit. Staying type. Jumps well. Got down for speed last time. Rite Of Passage good on Flat. Should stay. Might be a worry about pace. Weld doesn't have a good record at Cheltenham. But says 'normally stats are bullshit'! Likes Peddlars Cross. LM - Says Nick Williams is a bit mad but can train. Prefers Peddlars though. Could be a good horse and nice price. Strong word for Quel Esprit in Mullins camp. Not a fan of ROP. Price too short. AL - agrees. Peddlars shows pace. MF - Peddlars is serious contender. Just waiting for him to say he loves ROP! Plug for sponsor again...just a general mention. Yawn. MF says ROP has a wind problem! He likes Finians Rainbow. CL - Likes Quel Esprit. Likes Manyriverstocross too. LM - AK still not in real good form but wouldn't be surprised if he had 2 Festival winners.

Panel - no consensus. As above.

JP's view - good info on ROP wind problem. Didn't catch which race but gurgles apparently after one.

8.04pm - RSA Chase next. MF plugs sponsor again and AL cuts in to ask Mick to make a pick only for MF to plug again for bet on Nicky to win RSA Chase. MF not worried about Long Run jumping. Again another plug about faller refund! Apparently, Mick is changing his name to Mick Sportingbet. CL thinks jockey on Long Run is a massive problem. Have spoken to Carl about this before and he thinks jockey's nerves might play a part too. LM - likes Long Run but thinks jumping is a concern. Goes low at fences. Big engine though. Apparently, nothing can work with him at home. Likes Punchestowns too. Doesn't like Diamond Harry (neither did MF). PN also like Long Run and thinks he's a future Gold Cup horse. Doesn't think Weapons Amnesty jumps well enough and thinks he'll be nowhere. CL - likes Punchestowns.

Panel - 3 for Long Run and 1 for Punchestowns.

JP's view - I like Weapons Amnesty in this. A proper old fashioned stayer. A shame that it looks like Bensalem doesn't run. Good info from LM re nothing being able to work at home with Long Run.

8.13pm - Queen Mother - MF - Master Minded fan so another favourite for Mick here. Best ever performance was achieved when there was a suicidal pace but he can also jump well when making own pace. LM - Lee rides apparently and has ridden out for Ferdy M. Unsurprisingly then he likes Kalahari King. Blossoming at the moment into good 2 mile chaser. Ferdy has horses on A game at Festival but MM is tough nut to crack. Nagging worry that he is not always at this best. Likes KK at the prices. PN - Forpadydeplasterer prep not ideal and wonders about his pace (lack of). Can't see him beating MM. Big Zeb has a question mark about jumping. CL likes MM and thinks he should win. Murphy gets horses ready for Festivals. Likes KK too but thinks he will come 2nd to MM. Straightforward he says!

Panel - no consensus. As above.

JP's view - Forpadydeplasterer for me. Will love the ground and McCoy perfect partner.

DT is now going to roam. Here we go...he's asking for good looking girls. Oh dear. Question about what the panel think of Zaynar. MF says typical Daylami and will like good ground. Will have cheek pieces on for Champion. Question about Twist Magic. LM - not having Ruby is a big drawback. Can't back him with confidence. Question re Khyber Kim and time before race - CL - not a problem as horse better when fresh. Question about Menorah at Ascot and has he a chance against Dunguib? - Ground will suit Menorah. Dicky Johnson had just fallen on Planet Of Sound hence the bad ride. DT is laughing. Nobody knows why. Question about Binocular. MF - Nicky is pleased with him after extensive tests. DT plugs his 'hotline' - that didn't take long. LM mentions Colin Tizzard's in bumper...Cue Card. Questions about Mad Max - MF will be ridden by Paul Carberry. Thinks he has place claims. DT is chatting up a lady.

Break now. Time for a pint! Back later.

8.53pm - JEWSON - Tom Scudamore is now in the house. AL wants the panel's opinion on Rivaliste and The Hollinwell. The latter is favoured by the panel.

8.55pm - PERTEMPS - CL doesn't like Alfie Sherrin. Likes South Of The Border but stats against him. Kayf Aramis too much weight. SOTB best of the 4 Twister entries. PN - Prince Eric is the best of the Irish but would generally avoid the Irish in the handicaps. MF - likes Ainama. Likes Silk Affair. TS - rides Mr Thriller who beat Alfie Sherrin and has beaten Starluck. Not worried about poor Cheltenham form. Also likes Silk Affair.

9.01pm - RYANAIR - AL - No stand out fav. Likes Barber Shop as does LM. Made for the Ryanair. Tranquil vulnerable on quicker ground. The Sportingbet people on the table next to me are being noisy. Petit Robin like by MF. Overpriced and not a lot between hime and Barber Shop. Also likes Albertas Run. Open race MF thinks. PN - Not running Joncol although was an entry. Not ready for a race like Ryanair yet. Carl likes Poquelin. Likes Tranquil Sea.

Panel - majority like Barber Shop.

JP's view - sticking with Planet Of Sound although disappointed by fall at Ascot. I fear Tranquil Sea.

9.08pm - WORLD HURDLE - CL likes Tidal Bay and Sentry Duty and thinks they are both value. Thinks Denis Regan will follow Big Bucks around and then pounce. LM - doesn't fancy Katchit and likes Big Bucks. He gallops hard and is best horse in the race. TS - Big Bucks is a fantastic race horse. Respects Tidal Bay but thinks they are all playing for 2nd place behind BB. MF - taking a chance with Karabak. Likes Sentry Duty too. Good reminder that BB and Punchestowns were 17 lengths clear last year. PN - Cousin Vinny schooled well recently and is classy but doesn't fancy the other Irish horses. Likes Big Bucks but short price.

JP's view - good to hear CL put forward an alternative to Big Bucks. I'm on Karabak and an happy with 14s each way. Love Big Bucks and will probably win.

9.15pm - TRIUMPH HURDLE - TS - horses have been running on softer ground than they are used to. Will be v diff in Triumph and could be ripe for an upset. Not sure what he's riding. PN - Doesn't like Alaivan. Likes Advisor and thinks it's a pointer that Ruby riding. LM - unmoved by the race. MF - Soldatino talented. Nicky H not sure how good he is. Nothing has grabbed his attention. Thinks Alaivan is a 'rat'! Likes Advisor. TS - Notus De La Tour goes in Fred Winter. CL - likes Advisor.

Panel - majority go for Advisor.

JP's view - Nice quote from MF about a favourite no less. Don't think Notus De La Tour target was public so good info there. Race is dull this year and I'm going for a shock as I don't think the ones at head of market are anything special. Having a go on Olofi who has Cheltenham form.

9.22pm - ALBERT BARTLETT - PN - Shinrock Paddy will run well. Likes Enterprise Park too and liked by Willie Mullins. LM - Restless Harry has rejuvenated Robin Dickin and his career but worried about ground. Similar claims to Tell Massini. MF likes Tell Massini. TS - Tell Massini impressive. Rides Chatreux and shouldn't be 25/1. Great chance he says.

JP's view - Enterprise Park is my NAP of the week. Hoping the rain stays away to give him an advantage over the soft ground horses. He's won on soft though so have every chance no matter what the conditions.

9.28pm - GOLD CUP - CL - great achievement for PN to get horses to Gold Cup year in and year out. Kauto is the best horse and will win. Can't have Denman. Imperial Commander not ready at Haydock. Only realistic challenger to Kauto. Loves Cheltenham and will love ground. Not missed a day's work. Ignore the King George. PN - Cooldine good chance of coming 2nd. Can't rule out Denman. Kauto Star is his fav horse of all time. TS - has switched allegiance from Denman to Kauto. MF thinks Denman would have won Aon if stayed on his feet. Kauto Star a machine though. LM - Most people don't think Denman can win. He thinks Hennessy finished Denman this season. Wobbled and staggered after race apparently. Worried that Denman won't want to go through pain barrier. Nothing can beat Kauto Star.

Panel - unanimous that kauto Star will win.

JP's view - bit worrying that CL puts Kauto above Imperial Commander but he's the one for me each way. Still positive about him though. Big statement about Kauto from PN. Can't agree with MF about Denman...he was beaten at Newbury. Interesting from LM on Denman who has been the most original of the panel tonight.

DT has been entrusted with the mic again. Pointed out by Terry Warner (owner) that Planet Of Sound has great chance in Ryanair. Question for Carl - if he could have a ride this week who would she be!? OK...enough shenanigans. Serious analysis is over.

That's all folks!
 
Did meet a knowledgable chap who does some work for ATR when at Leopardstown (with Del and Hezz) - Will Lattimore if you know him Gal. Seemed to talk a lot of sense and certainly knew what he was doing :)
 
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