granger
Senior Jockey
I'm always found him rather candid in his assessment of racing tbh Gal. He ain't a bullshitter
Cheltenham Festival: Preview Nights
- Thread starter krizon
- Start date
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I found his take on the CC interesting. As was his assessment of Dunguib's chances if he would have been Champion Hurdle bound.
:lol::lol:
A few years ago Davy rode a good mare for CB in the Sun Alliance Chase-she had looked unlucky in the Pillar chase.Davy said she wasn't good enough at the Waterford preview. Davy has strong opinions which aren't always correct but he isn't afraid to voice his opinions.
granger
Senior Jockey
Haven't seen his name anywhere but I would be amazed if he wasn't at the Enniscorthy preview night
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,826
I think I asked this earlier but just in case...
Any Cumbrians attending the Carlisle one on Tuesday 9th March? I intend booking my ticket this afternoon. I'm meeting a colleague there but it's always nice putting faces to names if anyone else is going.
Any Cumbrians attending the Carlisle one on Tuesday 9th March? I intend booking my ticket this afternoon. I'm meeting a colleague there but it's always nice putting faces to names if anyone else is going.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,826
Bump.
qzy
At the Start
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2005
- Messages
- 805
Westmanstown Golf Club – 3rd March 2010
Panel
Colm Murray (MC) CM
Davy Russell DR
Colm Murphy MPH
Donn McLean DM
Evan Williams EW
Barry Geraghty BG
Paddy Power PP
For the second Irish preview evening, we travelled to the beautiful Westmanstown Golf Club in Dublin, where there were around 500 people in attendance.
Supreme Novices
CM: Rock solid Irish favourite in Dunguib. Backbone of everyone’s doubles, and trebles…..
BG: If he jumps he wins, no doubt in my mind. But that is a big ‘if’. He might well struggle. Nicky Henderson is sweet on Bellvano.
DR: I don’t think his jumping was so bad last time because he was out the back asleep. With this in mind the quicker they go the better for him. I think he’ll be ok. Connections think he will win a big flat race. The biggest problem his young jockey will have will be holding on to him; he’ll win on the bridle.
MPH: Exceptional horse – he’s beaten very good horses easily. Probably two classes above everything else.
EW: Really interesting one is Oscar Whiskey. 10-1 is a fair price. How many hot favourites get beat in this race?
BG: Oscar Whiskey’s a very good, unbeaten horse, but hasn’t competed at the top level yet.
DM: No doubting Dunguib’s ability, but not as cut and dried as the betting suggests. This is a good race and it shouldn’t be odds on, and then 10-1 bar. Get Me Out Of Here was very impressive at Newbury last time. Currently rated 150, higher than last 5 winners of Supreme Novices’ after the race. Blackstairmountain is also very interesting. Dunguib might win but price isn’t right; should be odds against.
PP: It’ll cost us well over £1 million if Dunguib wins – minimum.
Neptune Investment Hurdle
CM: We think the Irish will win thanks to Rite of Passage.
EW: He’s jumping well but 3-1 is short enough. 14-1 on Quantitativeeasing is cracking value. They think the world of him.
DM: 3-1 is too short, but he is the most likely winner, very classy. Of the others, Quel Esprit and Fionnegas are appealing.
DR: I’m a big fan of Rite of Passage. Really classy sort. Peddler’s Cross is very interesting though.
MPH: Again, hard to see past the favourite. I know they really fancy them, all raving about him.
BG: Finians Rainbow, I think, is the business. He’s the horse I’m most looking forward to at Cheltenham. My biggest worry is Peddler’s Cross. On certain pieces of form Rite of Passage has no chance. I’d put a line right through him.
PP: Rite of Passage has a massive chance, and is a strong favourite.
Willie Mullins then joins on a conference call, and runs trough a few races and horses:
Quel Esprit is one of my better ones at the festival. Stays really well and will handle any ground. At 12-1 I’d have a lot E/W.
No decision yet on Mikael D’Haguenet. We were delighted with Cooldine on Sunday during schooling at Leopardstown.
Dunguib is in a different league, and is very hard to beat. Blackstairmountain has a solid E/W shout.
Sports Line: the Arkle looks a cracking race, but his work on Sunday was pleasing. His style of racing will suit the race. Shakervilz is not bad value at 33’s either. I’m happy with both my runners, but it’s a tough race.
Secant Star’s jumping may not be good enough, and that worries me.
Golden Silver is improving all the time, but I can’t see us beating Master Minded.
Uimhiraceathair is good value at 20’s for the RSA.
Jy Vole is a tough ride, and may be better going right handed so Scotsirish is better value at 33’s for the Ryanair.
Cousin Vinny hasn’t fired this year, and didn’t take to travelling last year.
Mourad may be better in the Coral Cup.
If Shot From The Hip turns up like he did last Sunday, then he’ll win the bumper.
Enterprise Park has got a great chance in the Albert Bartlett. I’m amazed that Tell Massini is favourite. Fionnegas may also run in this.
Triumph Hurdle
CM: Davy, what do you think?
DR: Nobody has any idea what will win! It’s a terrible race. They’re all flat rejects. Pittoni might not run. Ask Barry about Super Kenny……
BG: Last year was a good year. This year everything is beating each other. Advisor looked ok at Ascot the other day. Soldatino will improve a stone from his last win and has a good chance. I know nothing about Super Kenny!
EW: I quite like Carlito Brigante. Difficult race though; I’ve got Barazan and on good ground he’ll be in the first four.
MPH: I have no idea!
PP: Notus De La Tour is very interesting. Imperial Cup first and then bonus hunting in this. At 16-1 he has a massive chance
DM: No strong view, hard to weigh up, and the form is all over the place.
Champion Hurdle
CM: Barry, Punjabi again?
BG: He felt good at Kempton last time. I’m not too fussed about Zaynar’s Kelso defeat. I’m not sure what I’ll ride yet. Go Native is the one to beat though.
DM: Go Native should be shorter; he is the most likely winner.
EW: Go Native must be seriously respected. There is a little bit of value around though and Khyber Kim appeals.
MPH: I’m a Go Native fan but Solwhit has real guts and only ever does enough. Punjabi has been there and done it. It’s pretty wide open to be fair.
PP: Good race for us, open. Go Native maybe should be shorter but the betting is pretty much right.
DR: Stable form at Charles Byrne’s isn’t a worry for me. If Celestial Halo gets an easy lead he could be very dangerous. Solwhit is quality but the lack of course form is a worry. It’s a hell of a good race.
World Hurdle
CM: Sentry Duty Barry?
BG: Good E/W chance but then again Big Bucks is buying money at 8-13. Different class.
DR: 110% Big Bucks will win. War of Attrition E/W is good fun and he’s flying at home.
EW: Big Bucks has so much in hand. Not for me at the price though. Maybe Katchit E/W? Karabak could really hustle up the favourite.
MPH: Case of what will finish second behind Big Bucks. Maybe War of Attrition, maybe Sentry Duty.
DM: Of all the odds-on shots Big Bucks is the most solid. The race lends itself to multiple winners. Tidal Bay could run him close though.
PP: Big Bucks is featuring in all trebles we’re taking. He’s going to be very hard, if not impossible, to beat.
Arkle
Barry Geraghty has left the panel but has asked the MC to give his opinions on some of the races. His seat has been filled by Peter Daly (PD), who is involved in the ownership of lading Arkle fancy, Sports Line.
CM: We (the Irish) look to have a strong hand here…..
EW: I really like Somersby a lot. His jumping is perfect. There is plenty of class in the race but Somersby should go very close.
DM: Hell of a race. It has class oozing out of it. Captain Cee Bee should probably win and 7-2 is about right. I respect Somersby but am worried about his Sandown (Henry VIII) form.
DR: Captain Cee Bee shouldn’t be far away. Can’t have Sizing Europe, not sure over Somersby, or Tataniano. Keep it simple and stick with Captain Cee Bee.
MPH: I’m a Captain Cee Bee fan. He’s done nothing wrong really, apart from falling!
PD: Our horse (Sports Line) is in great form. He schooled really well on Sunday, all is going well, and we are very optimistic. It’s a big ask for him though with just two chase starts under his belt.
PP: Sports Line best backed in recent days. Captain Cee Bee is very solid though.
RSA Chase
CM: BG gives a big thumbs up to Punchestowns for this one.
PP: He drifted the other day but has tightened back up now.
MPH: Punchestowns looks the real deal. Weapons Amnesty will be better on good ground.
DR: Weapons Amnesty is a good horse, but a slow learner. He takes his time to figure out what’s happening. Wouldn’t have the class though I don’t think. If Long Run can win this as a 5 year old then fair play as it’s a huge ask. I’m happy enough with Weapons Amnesty though I suppose.
DM: Long Run doesn’t jump well enough. The Feltham is a terrible guide to this race too. Weapons Amnesty is solid and I’d have him on my side, along with Weird Al, my 2 against the field.
EW: Nicky Henderson will win it! Reverse forecast the pair. When he says they’re the best he’s trained then sit up and take notice. Bensalem E/W.
Queen Mother
CM: Big Zeb then Colm?
MPH: We’re very happy, wished we’d never gone to Tingle Creek but hindsight is a wonderful thing. I like to think we’ll run a big race but Master Minded is Master Minded. Jockey booking is up in the air at present.
DM: It’s going to be hard to get Master Minded beat, but not impossible. He’s a remarkable horse but how good is he? Big Zeb is over priced, Forpadydeplasterer isn’t out of it either.
EW: Kalahari King’s last win at Doncaster was sensational. I really think he could win it. A clear round for Big Zeb gives him a massive chance too.
PP: This race could easily cut up so maybe now is the best time to bet. Could get just 6 or 7 runners. Going to be very hard to beat Master Minded. I’d love to see Big Zeb win.
DR: Master Minded is beatable, vulnerable off the bridle. Kalahari King has a squeak but this looks wide open. Twist Magic has no chance.
PD: I have my doubts over Master Minded and I like Kalahari King instead.
Gold Cup
CM: Kauto Star, one of the greats.
EW: Absolute super star lets hope he goes there and wins. Cooldine to be second. Kauto Star by ten lengths.
DM: Superstar. Not a bet for me though at odds-on. Imperial Commander is 12-1 why? Big Price. Couldn’t have confidence in Denman. Calgary Bay without the ‘big two’.
DR: My head says Kauto Star but my heart says Denman. Denman hasn’t become a bad horse overnight, he knows how to beat Kauto Star. Get Sam Thomas back on board though. Tricky Trickster at a nice E/W price.
MPH: No doubt for me, Kauto Star. What finishes second? Denman probably. Cooldine is a serious E/W bet though.
PP: Cooldine and Imperial Commander dominate the ‘without big two’ market but I hope Kauto Star wins.
Champion Bumper
CM: Davy, what about Tavern Times?
DR: Lovely horse, slight worry though that he’s only had one run. He worked well the other day and is in good nick but I’d of liked another start under his belt. Shot From The Hip was impressive on Sunday but that looked a very tough race. Sorting Willie Mullins’ runners out isn’t easy and you’ve got to respect Dermot Weld – but Hidden Universe will not win!
DM: Elegant Concord is the best of Weld’s runners but it’s not a betting race for me. That said, Drumbaloo could be interesting at a half decent price.
EW: Ignore all the English runners! Shot From The Hip for me but wait till the day and follow the market!
MPH: Great betting race but this year looks very tough. Elegant Concord at a push.
PP: DM has it right, Drumbaloo is the one. Strong form and a very decent price (16/1). I’m not convinced by the Paul Nicholls trained Al Ferof and I’ve heard negative things coming from the yard.
PANEL’S NAPS
DM: Imperial Commander e/w – Gold Cup
DR: Peddlers Cross – Neptune Investment Hurdle
EW: Punchestowns / Long Run reverse forecast – RSA
PP: Drumbaloo – Champion Bumper
BG: Finians Rainbow – Neptune Investment Hurdle
Panel
Colm Murray (MC) CM
Davy Russell DR
Colm Murphy MPH
Donn McLean DM
Evan Williams EW
Barry Geraghty BG
Paddy Power PP
For the second Irish preview evening, we travelled to the beautiful Westmanstown Golf Club in Dublin, where there were around 500 people in attendance.
Supreme Novices
CM: Rock solid Irish favourite in Dunguib. Backbone of everyone’s doubles, and trebles…..
BG: If he jumps he wins, no doubt in my mind. But that is a big ‘if’. He might well struggle. Nicky Henderson is sweet on Bellvano.
DR: I don’t think his jumping was so bad last time because he was out the back asleep. With this in mind the quicker they go the better for him. I think he’ll be ok. Connections think he will win a big flat race. The biggest problem his young jockey will have will be holding on to him; he’ll win on the bridle.
MPH: Exceptional horse – he’s beaten very good horses easily. Probably two classes above everything else.
EW: Really interesting one is Oscar Whiskey. 10-1 is a fair price. How many hot favourites get beat in this race?
BG: Oscar Whiskey’s a very good, unbeaten horse, but hasn’t competed at the top level yet.
DM: No doubting Dunguib’s ability, but not as cut and dried as the betting suggests. This is a good race and it shouldn’t be odds on, and then 10-1 bar. Get Me Out Of Here was very impressive at Newbury last time. Currently rated 150, higher than last 5 winners of Supreme Novices’ after the race. Blackstairmountain is also very interesting. Dunguib might win but price isn’t right; should be odds against.
PP: It’ll cost us well over £1 million if Dunguib wins – minimum.
Neptune Investment Hurdle
CM: We think the Irish will win thanks to Rite of Passage.
EW: He’s jumping well but 3-1 is short enough. 14-1 on Quantitativeeasing is cracking value. They think the world of him.
DM: 3-1 is too short, but he is the most likely winner, very classy. Of the others, Quel Esprit and Fionnegas are appealing.
DR: I’m a big fan of Rite of Passage. Really classy sort. Peddler’s Cross is very interesting though.
MPH: Again, hard to see past the favourite. I know they really fancy them, all raving about him.
BG: Finians Rainbow, I think, is the business. He’s the horse I’m most looking forward to at Cheltenham. My biggest worry is Peddler’s Cross. On certain pieces of form Rite of Passage has no chance. I’d put a line right through him.
PP: Rite of Passage has a massive chance, and is a strong favourite.
Willie Mullins then joins on a conference call, and runs trough a few races and horses:
Quel Esprit is one of my better ones at the festival. Stays really well and will handle any ground. At 12-1 I’d have a lot E/W.
No decision yet on Mikael D’Haguenet. We were delighted with Cooldine on Sunday during schooling at Leopardstown.
Dunguib is in a different league, and is very hard to beat. Blackstairmountain has a solid E/W shout.
Sports Line: the Arkle looks a cracking race, but his work on Sunday was pleasing. His style of racing will suit the race. Shakervilz is not bad value at 33’s either. I’m happy with both my runners, but it’s a tough race.
Secant Star’s jumping may not be good enough, and that worries me.
Golden Silver is improving all the time, but I can’t see us beating Master Minded.
Uimhiraceathair is good value at 20’s for the RSA.
Jy Vole is a tough ride, and may be better going right handed so Scotsirish is better value at 33’s for the Ryanair.
Cousin Vinny hasn’t fired this year, and didn’t take to travelling last year.
Mourad may be better in the Coral Cup.
If Shot From The Hip turns up like he did last Sunday, then he’ll win the bumper.
Enterprise Park has got a great chance in the Albert Bartlett. I’m amazed that Tell Massini is favourite. Fionnegas may also run in this.
Triumph Hurdle
CM: Davy, what do you think?
DR: Nobody has any idea what will win! It’s a terrible race. They’re all flat rejects. Pittoni might not run. Ask Barry about Super Kenny……
BG: Last year was a good year. This year everything is beating each other. Advisor looked ok at Ascot the other day. Soldatino will improve a stone from his last win and has a good chance. I know nothing about Super Kenny!
EW: I quite like Carlito Brigante. Difficult race though; I’ve got Barazan and on good ground he’ll be in the first four.
MPH: I have no idea!
PP: Notus De La Tour is very interesting. Imperial Cup first and then bonus hunting in this. At 16-1 he has a massive chance
DM: No strong view, hard to weigh up, and the form is all over the place.
Champion Hurdle
CM: Barry, Punjabi again?
BG: He felt good at Kempton last time. I’m not too fussed about Zaynar’s Kelso defeat. I’m not sure what I’ll ride yet. Go Native is the one to beat though.
DM: Go Native should be shorter; he is the most likely winner.
EW: Go Native must be seriously respected. There is a little bit of value around though and Khyber Kim appeals.
MPH: I’m a Go Native fan but Solwhit has real guts and only ever does enough. Punjabi has been there and done it. It’s pretty wide open to be fair.
PP: Good race for us, open. Go Native maybe should be shorter but the betting is pretty much right.
DR: Stable form at Charles Byrne’s isn’t a worry for me. If Celestial Halo gets an easy lead he could be very dangerous. Solwhit is quality but the lack of course form is a worry. It’s a hell of a good race.
World Hurdle
CM: Sentry Duty Barry?
BG: Good E/W chance but then again Big Bucks is buying money at 8-13. Different class.
DR: 110% Big Bucks will win. War of Attrition E/W is good fun and he’s flying at home.
EW: Big Bucks has so much in hand. Not for me at the price though. Maybe Katchit E/W? Karabak could really hustle up the favourite.
MPH: Case of what will finish second behind Big Bucks. Maybe War of Attrition, maybe Sentry Duty.
DM: Of all the odds-on shots Big Bucks is the most solid. The race lends itself to multiple winners. Tidal Bay could run him close though.
PP: Big Bucks is featuring in all trebles we’re taking. He’s going to be very hard, if not impossible, to beat.
Arkle
Barry Geraghty has left the panel but has asked the MC to give his opinions on some of the races. His seat has been filled by Peter Daly (PD), who is involved in the ownership of lading Arkle fancy, Sports Line.
CM: We (the Irish) look to have a strong hand here…..
EW: I really like Somersby a lot. His jumping is perfect. There is plenty of class in the race but Somersby should go very close.
DM: Hell of a race. It has class oozing out of it. Captain Cee Bee should probably win and 7-2 is about right. I respect Somersby but am worried about his Sandown (Henry VIII) form.
DR: Captain Cee Bee shouldn’t be far away. Can’t have Sizing Europe, not sure over Somersby, or Tataniano. Keep it simple and stick with Captain Cee Bee.
MPH: I’m a Captain Cee Bee fan. He’s done nothing wrong really, apart from falling!
PD: Our horse (Sports Line) is in great form. He schooled really well on Sunday, all is going well, and we are very optimistic. It’s a big ask for him though with just two chase starts under his belt.
PP: Sports Line best backed in recent days. Captain Cee Bee is very solid though.
RSA Chase
CM: BG gives a big thumbs up to Punchestowns for this one.
PP: He drifted the other day but has tightened back up now.
MPH: Punchestowns looks the real deal. Weapons Amnesty will be better on good ground.
DR: Weapons Amnesty is a good horse, but a slow learner. He takes his time to figure out what’s happening. Wouldn’t have the class though I don’t think. If Long Run can win this as a 5 year old then fair play as it’s a huge ask. I’m happy enough with Weapons Amnesty though I suppose.
DM: Long Run doesn’t jump well enough. The Feltham is a terrible guide to this race too. Weapons Amnesty is solid and I’d have him on my side, along with Weird Al, my 2 against the field.
EW: Nicky Henderson will win it! Reverse forecast the pair. When he says they’re the best he’s trained then sit up and take notice. Bensalem E/W.
Queen Mother
CM: Big Zeb then Colm?
MPH: We’re very happy, wished we’d never gone to Tingle Creek but hindsight is a wonderful thing. I like to think we’ll run a big race but Master Minded is Master Minded. Jockey booking is up in the air at present.
DM: It’s going to be hard to get Master Minded beat, but not impossible. He’s a remarkable horse but how good is he? Big Zeb is over priced, Forpadydeplasterer isn’t out of it either.
EW: Kalahari King’s last win at Doncaster was sensational. I really think he could win it. A clear round for Big Zeb gives him a massive chance too.
PP: This race could easily cut up so maybe now is the best time to bet. Could get just 6 or 7 runners. Going to be very hard to beat Master Minded. I’d love to see Big Zeb win.
DR: Master Minded is beatable, vulnerable off the bridle. Kalahari King has a squeak but this looks wide open. Twist Magic has no chance.
PD: I have my doubts over Master Minded and I like Kalahari King instead.
Gold Cup
CM: Kauto Star, one of the greats.
EW: Absolute super star lets hope he goes there and wins. Cooldine to be second. Kauto Star by ten lengths.
DM: Superstar. Not a bet for me though at odds-on. Imperial Commander is 12-1 why? Big Price. Couldn’t have confidence in Denman. Calgary Bay without the ‘big two’.
DR: My head says Kauto Star but my heart says Denman. Denman hasn’t become a bad horse overnight, he knows how to beat Kauto Star. Get Sam Thomas back on board though. Tricky Trickster at a nice E/W price.
MPH: No doubt for me, Kauto Star. What finishes second? Denman probably. Cooldine is a serious E/W bet though.
PP: Cooldine and Imperial Commander dominate the ‘without big two’ market but I hope Kauto Star wins.
Champion Bumper
CM: Davy, what about Tavern Times?
DR: Lovely horse, slight worry though that he’s only had one run. He worked well the other day and is in good nick but I’d of liked another start under his belt. Shot From The Hip was impressive on Sunday but that looked a very tough race. Sorting Willie Mullins’ runners out isn’t easy and you’ve got to respect Dermot Weld – but Hidden Universe will not win!
DM: Elegant Concord is the best of Weld’s runners but it’s not a betting race for me. That said, Drumbaloo could be interesting at a half decent price.
EW: Ignore all the English runners! Shot From The Hip for me but wait till the day and follow the market!
MPH: Great betting race but this year looks very tough. Elegant Concord at a push.
PP: DM has it right, Drumbaloo is the one. Strong form and a very decent price (16/1). I’m not convinced by the Paul Nicholls trained Al Ferof and I’ve heard negative things coming from the yard.
PANEL’S NAPS
DM: Imperial Commander e/w – Gold Cup
DR: Peddlers Cross – Neptune Investment Hurdle
EW: Punchestowns / Long Run reverse forecast – RSA
PP: Drumbaloo – Champion Bumper
BG: Finians Rainbow – Neptune Investment Hurdle
granger
Senior Jockey
Great work qzy. Keep them coming
qzy
At the Start
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2005
- Messages
- 805
Not my work I must stress, they are from Wetherbys...But I will be at the preview night in Westport next Tuesday to add my own
Waterford preview excellent night -possibly the best of all the previews.
Some random opinions -Mick Fitz doesn't think BArbers SHop or Riverside theatre are good enough.
Pipe was very coy about Notus de la Tour but likes The Package.
Chronicle will be laying DUnguib.
Long RUn is a machine.
Panel likes Mighty MAssini.
Francome and Cattermole have serious doubts about Denman.
Russell doesn't like MM and said Weapons Amnesty was the sharpest tool in the shed but wasn't negative about him.
also said that he saw alaivan pull up in a schooling hurdle -said he is only a pony-very negative about him.
Horse of Hendersons called super Kenny who runs on Friday was named as potential plot horse.
apologies for typing -long night.
Some random opinions -Mick Fitz doesn't think BArbers SHop or Riverside theatre are good enough.
Pipe was very coy about Notus de la Tour but likes The Package.
Chronicle will be laying DUnguib.
Long RUn is a machine.
Panel likes Mighty MAssini.
Francome and Cattermole have serious doubts about Denman.
Russell doesn't like MM and said Weapons Amnesty was the sharpest tool in the shed but wasn't negative about him.
also said that he saw alaivan pull up in a schooling hurdle -said he is only a pony-very negative about him.
Horse of Hendersons called super Kenny who runs on Friday was named as potential plot horse.
apologies for typing -long night.
Spoons
At the Start
I was at the preview in Leopardstown and thought it was one of the best I've ever been too atmosphere and panel wise.(and Ive been to A LOT of these!)Davy was more lively and open than I've ever seen him and I think the banter between him, Kevin O'Ryan and Matt Chapman got the other members of the panel to relax.
The panel went through all 26 races but many of the handicaps featured little of interest to report back on so I have only covered the races that I felt were of note. Barry Faulkner of Attheraces took the chair and the three-man panel comprised of professional punter and RacingUK pundit Dave Nevison (DN) who was on top form, former top jockey Steve Smith Eccles (SSE) and Totesport’s ever-genial PR representative George ‘Pretty Boy’ Primarolo (GP). At least he didn’t dance like he did when compered a section at the Horserace Writers Awards Lunch. In fairness, they whizzed through all 26 races in pretty good time.
SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE
DN: Regards Dunguib, if anyone wants to take 4/6 at the Festival about anything, then good luck to them as you won’t find a bookie struggling to take their bet. He has a huge ask in my book given his jumping and is a ludicrous price. You would be deranged to back it at 4/6. Menorah and Get Me Out Of Here arrive here with stronger hurdling form and are over ten times the price. Menorah got a shocking ride last time and is much better than that.
SSE: I just don’t know what Dunguib has beaten over hurdles but an even bigger concern is his jumping. Having ridden in many ‘Supremes’ I know that just one mistake puts you in trouble and if you make two then you are gone mate. I would lay him until the cows come home. 7/1 represents good value about Get Me Out Of Here whilst Menorah got a tosser of a ride from Johnson so that wasn’t his running and he would be my preference.
GP: I don’t think Dunguib will start as low as 4/6 as the rails bookmakers are sure to want to take him on. He won probably the best bumper ever run but is short enough and Get Me Out Of Here is a solid alternative. Blackstairmountain looks too short at 10/1 due to liabilities having been put up by Pricewise.
ARKLE TROPHY
DN: Captain Cee Bee has not done anything to merit being as low as 7/2. The highest rated chaser in the race has also won twice at the track and is a massive 33/1 and he is French Opera and I am praying Henderson runs here rather than the Grand Annual. He is non-runner no-bet horse for sure. Sizing Europe has had problems in the past and that would worry me at the top level so I think the most likely winner is Somersby. Being trained by Henrietta Knight, he has done well to run twice this season given their policy is that their horses should not run at all. She is a fantastic trainer of just one horse as, like most men, I don’t think she can multi-task. I reckon she bypasses all the other boxes at the yard and just heads straight for him.
SSE: Captain Cee Bee’s jumping is suspect to me and two miles at Cheltenham can find that out so I would oppose him. Somersby is trained by an old-fashioned trainer and by that I mean they set an early target and stick to that plan and give them plenty of time between races. From day one this has been the target and he will take plenty of beating.
GP: The bookmakers will want to take on Captain Cee Bee and Sizing Europe. In fact Sports Line has impressed me most of the Irish. The Nightingale would be interesting if he ran here but that is now looking unlikely.
WILLIAM HILL TROPHY
DN: Bensalem could easily hit the deck early on. He hit most fences in just a three runner race last time so how the hell he can be favourite in a 24-runner handicap I don’t know – probably down to his trainer talking him up. The form of The Package’s win last time has not worked out well but I thought it was interesting in a David Ashforth feature on Jonjo O’Neill just about the only big hope he didn’t mention was Theatrical Moment so he is interesting non-runner no-bet as has other entries.
SSE: Talked tactics…..don’t go up the inner as the leaders fall back on you.
GP: Well done those who got a nice price about The Package but he is a professional loser for me. Bensalem could be well treated off 143 but he can’t jump but Theatrical Moment strikes me as another Wichita Lineman for the O’Neill yard who was also a novice. Exmoor Ranger has been nicely backed but he always is.
CHAMPION HURDLE
DN: With Go Native going for a £1million bonus, I hope it’s not going to be a crooked race! (was joking!). Very open and ground conditions are now starting to lean more the way of Go Native than Solwhit but I think both will be beaten. I’ve got three running for me they being Khyber Kim but I am nervous on his drift on Betfair today, Medermit who showed a good turn of foot last time and Punjabi who may have beaten nothing last time but did it in a style that told me he is absolutely spot on and right on top of his game. Zaynar shouldn’t even be in the race.
SSE: Solwhit and Go Native have been in great form all year and Go Native can take all the beating. I won two Triumphs for Henderson and both of those were really 2m4f horses which is also what Zaynar is so I can’t have him on my mind. Punjabi, on the other hand, jumped with much more of his zest last time than in his previous two runs and is coming right at the right time.
GP: Go Native should have been favourite after his Christmas Hurdle win. Solwhit will win…………..the Aintree Hurdle. He is a 2m4f horse. Punjabi e/w at 10/1 sticks out like a sore thumb to me and he was so stylish at Kempton. I feel sorry for Sublimity who they keep running on ground he hates and if it were to come up close to good he can go well.
DAVID NICHOLSON MARES HURDLE
DN: Quevega has absolutely one horse to beat (Voler La Vedette) and is odds-against in a match. That is value compared to Dunguib at 4/6.
SSE: If Quevega runs the same race as when just behind Solwhit and Punjabi at Punchestown last spring then she is a lay down.
GP: Bit of each-way money for No One Tells Me but pretty quiet.
NH CHASE
DN: I fancy Any Currency each-way who has competed and won competitive handicaps and now is back in to novice company. Massasoit had a wind op which seems compulsory for Nicholls horses but I am still not convinced about him. Pettifour doesn’t jump well enough and will be amateur ridden in this race.
GP: there have been bits for Massasoit but maybe as he is Nicholls’ only entry. Sychronised has also been nibbled at doubtless given Jonjo has such a fine record in this race. All Fabalu does his stay so he catches my eye most.
NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE
DN: I’ve not backed anything yet but am surprised Rite Of Passage is still 7/2 as reckon he could be a 13/8 on the day. Regards Peddlers Cross, is McCain turning into the next Mary Reveley? He seems to lose it south of the Watford Gap as doesn’t blood them in against good horses preferring to win weak races in the north by 20 lengths.
SSE: Rite Of Passage’s form was let down dismally by Grey Soldier last week but I still reckon he is the one to beat.
GP: Rite Of Passage is a knocking bet at 7/2. I can’t see anything being good enough to beat him and he is only going to shorten.
RSA CHASE
DN: Punchestowns has only beaten chaser of note so far and is favourite on potential. Long Run’s inclination to dive at his fences worries me tremendously so can see him on the deck as I can Diamond Harry who wasn’t efficient over his fences at Newbury. If Punchestowns doesn’t win I could see this being a 40/1 boilover. Brennan thinks Weird Al will win but, if so, I think it would have to be by default. If I was a bookmaker I would be laying the top three in the market.
SSE: My old boss dominates the market with Punchestowns and Long Run and I would have Punchestowns down as one of my best bets of the meeting. He is a monster. Long Run is very classy but at Warwick Waley-Cohen almost got him beat by asking him at many fences when he should sit still. He is a very good amateur but he is still an amateur and there is a world of difference between him and Barry Geraghty and he could have him beaten before the race starts.
GP: We want to keep Long Run on our side. The jockey has won a Grade 1 chase on him becoming the first amateur to do so since Jim Wilson on Little Owl.
QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
DN: I can not understand why Master Minded went from 7/4 to 4/6 after beating Mahogany Blaze last time and the three horses that follow him in the betting were all impressive in their trials last time out. Kalahari King won probably the best 2m handicap chase I have ever seen last time after Ferdy Murphy told us he would be delighted if he finished eighth. What a master-stroke! He would have won the Arkle by three lengths but for a mistake three out last year and it is beyond belief that Master Minded is odds-on.
SSE: Master Minded is awesome at his best but there is no such thing as a good thing. If he jumps round, he wins.
GP: Twist Magic is not a Cheltenham horse. Kalahari King looks very solid each-way, stick him in an each-way double with Rite Of Passage.
WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER
DN: I will already be in the Montpelier Hotel.
SSE: I’ve heard that Hidden Universe has come on bundles and Pat Smullen rides so I expect him to start favourite.
GP: The age stats are against Hidden Universe but there is still fair money for him but it is money on the day which really matters.
JEWSON NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE
DN: The plot horses struggle to get in the handicap chases anymore which is a good thing. I thought Colin Tizzard’s was a cud-chewing country bumpkin outfit but in Hey Big Spender they have a player though maybe he could have been cuter as could have 6lbs too much. He is still a good each-way bet.
SSE: J P McManus loves these Festival handicaps and Sunnyhillboy has been similarly campaigned to Reveillez who won this race for him.
GP: Rivaliste and The Hollinwell have been nicely supported. I’m not entirely sure that Sunnyhillboy has been putting his best foot forward over fences so far so can see some improvement there.
RYANAIR CHASE
DN: I backed Planet Of Sound before Ascot feeling he is a horse waiting to happen but am not sure how he can come back from that. Barbers Shop is a bit of a ponce and I can’t have him winning a really good race and I wouldn’t touch Voy Por Ustedes even if he touched 999/1 on the machine as he has gone and can’t win if he started now. Poquelin and Tranquil Sea are handicappers.
SSE: The deciding factor will be the ground as Poquelin needs it near good but if it turned near soft I would fancy Tranquil Sea to confirm Paddy Power Gold Cup form.
GP: This is already a trends race and the Paddy Power and Boylesports Gold Cups are the obvious races to follow. At bigger prices, Albertas Run makes some appeal if the ground starts to dry up.
LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE
DN: I am convinced Big Buck’s will touch Evens in-running so leave it in there rather than taking 4/7 now. I’ve backed Time For Rupert e/w as he is getting better with every race and can’t be with Karabak given the King stable have been struggling. Tidal Bay is also value as he is the other proven Grade 1 horse in the race.
SSE: I can’t look any further than Big Buck’s. He is head and shoulders above these. What else can you say?
GP: Big Buck’s is not totally bomb proof. I have time for Sentry Duty and Tidal Bay and also feel that Time For Rupert is the best e/w value.
TRIUMPH HURDLE
DN: I am just not interested in the juvenile races this season. Anyone who reckons Soldatino was impressive at Kempton was watching a different race to me. He beat rocking horses.
SSE: Soldatino has solid form on a line through Ultimate and I have heard he has come out of Kempton bouncing.
GP: This race has been a total mess from the start of the season and still is. Soldatino is too short now but the word from Ireland is that Secant Star is the one even though Mullins thinks he is a chaser in the making. Commanche Court won this for Ireland and was top class chaser.
ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE
DN: I was impressed with Restless Harry but am not sure there is any value in him. The Betchworth Kid is the horse I like as I thought it was a good run when third in a slow race over an inadequate trip at Kempton and I want to back all three of those horses next time out as I think that was a good race. He was also unlucky not to win the Ebor.
SSE: I like the look of Restless Harry who would be much shorter if trained by one of the big guns and he is sure to enjoy the step up to three miles.
GP: Tell Massini is a worthy favourite and already has a rating good enough to win the race. I would be worried The Betchworth Kid has been on the go a long time having also ran on the Flat and am not sure I would trust him in a finish so take Tell Massini to outbattle him.
GOLD CUP
DN: I don’t think Denman is a factor and reckon he is a one race a season horse. Kauto Star to win but my bet of the meeting is Tricky Trickster without Kauto Star, without Kauto Star and Denman, and also each-way. I think he will be the shortest priced winner of the Grand National since Red Rum. The actual number of horses that will stay in the Gold Cup are few and I am not absolutely uncertain he can’t win it. He might just be something new coming through.
SSE: Keeping Kauto Star fresh is the key and I can’t see anything to beat him, especially not Denman.
GP: I felt like the biggest pillock at Newbury in our promotional bus after Denman’s flop in the AON Chase! It could be he was more undercooked than we and Nicholls thought.
SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE
DN: Regards Dunguib, if anyone wants to take 4/6 at the Festival about anything, then good luck to them as you won’t find a bookie struggling to take their bet. He has a huge ask in my book given his jumping and is a ludicrous price. You would be deranged to back it at 4/6. Menorah and Get Me Out Of Here arrive here with stronger hurdling form and are over ten times the price. Menorah got a shocking ride last time and is much better than that.
SSE: I just don’t know what Dunguib has beaten over hurdles but an even bigger concern is his jumping. Having ridden in many ‘Supremes’ I know that just one mistake puts you in trouble and if you make two then you are gone mate. I would lay him until the cows come home. 7/1 represents good value about Get Me Out Of Here whilst Menorah got a tosser of a ride from Johnson so that wasn’t his running and he would be my preference.
GP: I don’t think Dunguib will start as low as 4/6 as the rails bookmakers are sure to want to take him on. He won probably the best bumper ever run but is short enough and Get Me Out Of Here is a solid alternative. Blackstairmountain looks too short at 10/1 due to liabilities having been put up by Pricewise.
ARKLE TROPHY
DN: Captain Cee Bee has not done anything to merit being as low as 7/2. The highest rated chaser in the race has also won twice at the track and is a massive 33/1 and he is French Opera and I am praying Henderson runs here rather than the Grand Annual. He is non-runner no-bet horse for sure. Sizing Europe has had problems in the past and that would worry me at the top level so I think the most likely winner is Somersby. Being trained by Henrietta Knight, he has done well to run twice this season given their policy is that their horses should not run at all. She is a fantastic trainer of just one horse as, like most men, I don’t think she can multi-task. I reckon she bypasses all the other boxes at the yard and just heads straight for him.
SSE: Captain Cee Bee’s jumping is suspect to me and two miles at Cheltenham can find that out so I would oppose him. Somersby is trained by an old-fashioned trainer and by that I mean they set an early target and stick to that plan and give them plenty of time between races. From day one this has been the target and he will take plenty of beating.
GP: The bookmakers will want to take on Captain Cee Bee and Sizing Europe. In fact Sports Line has impressed me most of the Irish. The Nightingale would be interesting if he ran here but that is now looking unlikely.
WILLIAM HILL TROPHY
DN: Bensalem could easily hit the deck early on. He hit most fences in just a three runner race last time so how the hell he can be favourite in a 24-runner handicap I don’t know – probably down to his trainer talking him up. The form of The Package’s win last time has not worked out well but I thought it was interesting in a David Ashforth feature on Jonjo O’Neill just about the only big hope he didn’t mention was Theatrical Moment so he is interesting non-runner no-bet as has other entries.
SSE: Talked tactics…..don’t go up the inner as the leaders fall back on you.
GP: Well done those who got a nice price about The Package but he is a professional loser for me. Bensalem could be well treated off 143 but he can’t jump but Theatrical Moment strikes me as another Wichita Lineman for the O’Neill yard who was also a novice. Exmoor Ranger has been nicely backed but he always is.
CHAMPION HURDLE
DN: With Go Native going for a £1million bonus, I hope it’s not going to be a crooked race! (was joking!). Very open and ground conditions are now starting to lean more the way of Go Native than Solwhit but I think both will be beaten. I’ve got three running for me they being Khyber Kim but I am nervous on his drift on Betfair today, Medermit who showed a good turn of foot last time and Punjabi who may have beaten nothing last time but did it in a style that told me he is absolutely spot on and right on top of his game. Zaynar shouldn’t even be in the race.
SSE: Solwhit and Go Native have been in great form all year and Go Native can take all the beating. I won two Triumphs for Henderson and both of those were really 2m4f horses which is also what Zaynar is so I can’t have him on my mind. Punjabi, on the other hand, jumped with much more of his zest last time than in his previous two runs and is coming right at the right time.
GP: Go Native should have been favourite after his Christmas Hurdle win. Solwhit will win…………..the Aintree Hurdle. He is a 2m4f horse. Punjabi e/w at 10/1 sticks out like a sore thumb to me and he was so stylish at Kempton. I feel sorry for Sublimity who they keep running on ground he hates and if it were to come up close to good he can go well.
DAVID NICHOLSON MARES HURDLE
DN: Quevega has absolutely one horse to beat (Voler La Vedette) and is odds-against in a match. That is value compared to Dunguib at 4/6.
SSE: If Quevega runs the same race as when just behind Solwhit and Punjabi at Punchestown last spring then she is a lay down.
GP: Bit of each-way money for No One Tells Me but pretty quiet.
NH CHASE
DN: I fancy Any Currency each-way who has competed and won competitive handicaps and now is back in to novice company. Massasoit had a wind op which seems compulsory for Nicholls horses but I am still not convinced about him. Pettifour doesn’t jump well enough and will be amateur ridden in this race.
GP: there have been bits for Massasoit but maybe as he is Nicholls’ only entry. Sychronised has also been nibbled at doubtless given Jonjo has such a fine record in this race. All Fabalu does his stay so he catches my eye most.
NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE
DN: I’ve not backed anything yet but am surprised Rite Of Passage is still 7/2 as reckon he could be a 13/8 on the day. Regards Peddlers Cross, is McCain turning into the next Mary Reveley? He seems to lose it south of the Watford Gap as doesn’t blood them in against good horses preferring to win weak races in the north by 20 lengths.
SSE: Rite Of Passage’s form was let down dismally by Grey Soldier last week but I still reckon he is the one to beat.
GP: Rite Of Passage is a knocking bet at 7/2. I can’t see anything being good enough to beat him and he is only going to shorten.
RSA CHASE
DN: Punchestowns has only beaten chaser of note so far and is favourite on potential. Long Run’s inclination to dive at his fences worries me tremendously so can see him on the deck as I can Diamond Harry who wasn’t efficient over his fences at Newbury. If Punchestowns doesn’t win I could see this being a 40/1 boilover. Brennan thinks Weird Al will win but, if so, I think it would have to be by default. If I was a bookmaker I would be laying the top three in the market.
SSE: My old boss dominates the market with Punchestowns and Long Run and I would have Punchestowns down as one of my best bets of the meeting. He is a monster. Long Run is very classy but at Warwick Waley-Cohen almost got him beat by asking him at many fences when he should sit still. He is a very good amateur but he is still an amateur and there is a world of difference between him and Barry Geraghty and he could have him beaten before the race starts.
GP: We want to keep Long Run on our side. The jockey has won a Grade 1 chase on him becoming the first amateur to do so since Jim Wilson on Little Owl.
QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
DN: I can not understand why Master Minded went from 7/4 to 4/6 after beating Mahogany Blaze last time and the three horses that follow him in the betting were all impressive in their trials last time out. Kalahari King won probably the best 2m handicap chase I have ever seen last time after Ferdy Murphy told us he would be delighted if he finished eighth. What a master-stroke! He would have won the Arkle by three lengths but for a mistake three out last year and it is beyond belief that Master Minded is odds-on.
SSE: Master Minded is awesome at his best but there is no such thing as a good thing. If he jumps round, he wins.
GP: Twist Magic is not a Cheltenham horse. Kalahari King looks very solid each-way, stick him in an each-way double with Rite Of Passage.
WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER
DN: I will already be in the Montpelier Hotel.
SSE: I’ve heard that Hidden Universe has come on bundles and Pat Smullen rides so I expect him to start favourite.
GP: The age stats are against Hidden Universe but there is still fair money for him but it is money on the day which really matters.
JEWSON NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE
DN: The plot horses struggle to get in the handicap chases anymore which is a good thing. I thought Colin Tizzard’s was a cud-chewing country bumpkin outfit but in Hey Big Spender they have a player though maybe he could have been cuter as could have 6lbs too much. He is still a good each-way bet.
SSE: J P McManus loves these Festival handicaps and Sunnyhillboy has been similarly campaigned to Reveillez who won this race for him.
GP: Rivaliste and The Hollinwell have been nicely supported. I’m not entirely sure that Sunnyhillboy has been putting his best foot forward over fences so far so can see some improvement there.
RYANAIR CHASE
DN: I backed Planet Of Sound before Ascot feeling he is a horse waiting to happen but am not sure how he can come back from that. Barbers Shop is a bit of a ponce and I can’t have him winning a really good race and I wouldn’t touch Voy Por Ustedes even if he touched 999/1 on the machine as he has gone and can’t win if he started now. Poquelin and Tranquil Sea are handicappers.
SSE: The deciding factor will be the ground as Poquelin needs it near good but if it turned near soft I would fancy Tranquil Sea to confirm Paddy Power Gold Cup form.
GP: This is already a trends race and the Paddy Power and Boylesports Gold Cups are the obvious races to follow. At bigger prices, Albertas Run makes some appeal if the ground starts to dry up.
LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE
DN: I am convinced Big Buck’s will touch Evens in-running so leave it in there rather than taking 4/7 now. I’ve backed Time For Rupert e/w as he is getting better with every race and can’t be with Karabak given the King stable have been struggling. Tidal Bay is also value as he is the other proven Grade 1 horse in the race.
SSE: I can’t look any further than Big Buck’s. He is head and shoulders above these. What else can you say?
GP: Big Buck’s is not totally bomb proof. I have time for Sentry Duty and Tidal Bay and also feel that Time For Rupert is the best e/w value.
TRIUMPH HURDLE
DN: I am just not interested in the juvenile races this season. Anyone who reckons Soldatino was impressive at Kempton was watching a different race to me. He beat rocking horses.
SSE: Soldatino has solid form on a line through Ultimate and I have heard he has come out of Kempton bouncing.
GP: This race has been a total mess from the start of the season and still is. Soldatino is too short now but the word from Ireland is that Secant Star is the one even though Mullins thinks he is a chaser in the making. Commanche Court won this for Ireland and was top class chaser.
ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE
DN: I was impressed with Restless Harry but am not sure there is any value in him. The Betchworth Kid is the horse I like as I thought it was a good run when third in a slow race over an inadequate trip at Kempton and I want to back all three of those horses next time out as I think that was a good race. He was also unlucky not to win the Ebor.
SSE: I like the look of Restless Harry who would be much shorter if trained by one of the big guns and he is sure to enjoy the step up to three miles.
GP: Tell Massini is a worthy favourite and already has a rating good enough to win the race. I would be worried The Betchworth Kid has been on the go a long time having also ran on the Flat and am not sure I would trust him in a finish so take Tell Massini to outbattle him.
GOLD CUP
DN: I don’t think Denman is a factor and reckon he is a one race a season horse. Kauto Star to win but my bet of the meeting is Tricky Trickster without Kauto Star, without Kauto Star and Denman, and also each-way. I think he will be the shortest priced winner of the Grand National since Red Rum. The actual number of horses that will stay in the Gold Cup are few and I am not absolutely uncertain he can’t win it. He might just be something new coming through.
SSE: Keeping Kauto Star fresh is the key and I can’t see anything to beat him, especially not Denman.
GP: I felt like the biggest pillock at Newbury in our promotional bus after Denman’s flop in the AON Chase! It could be he was more undercooked than we and Nicholls thought.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Yeas, brilliant preview. Proper strong opinions.
rorydelargy
At the Start
I gather some of SSE's comments were gagged on the evening....
chroniclandlord
Senior Jockey
Dave Nevison seems very keen on Tricky Trickster.
qzy
At the Start
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2005
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Doncaster Racecourse – 6th March 2010
Panel
Simon Mapletoft (MC) SM
Craig Reid (Tote) CR
Andrew Thornton AT
Mick Fitzgerald MF
Keith Reveley KR
There were a couple of changes on the panel as Ferdy Murphy and Denis O’Regan had other commitments but Andy Thornton and Keith Reveley were more than suitable replacements for the first ever Preview Evening at Doncaster.
Supreme Novices’
SM: So, starting off with many peoples’ banker of the week, can Dunguib be beaten?
MF: There is no doubting Dunguib’s ability and I’d definitely be backing him if he were to take his place in the Champion Hurdle.
AT: Better ground would be an advantage for him as the quicker they go the better it seems but I can’t see him beaten I’m afraid even if it’s on the soft side. Get Me Out Of here has an advantage with his experience in big fields and Blackstairmountain may be one to fill a place.
KR: It’s normally a pacy track on the Tuesday which will certainly play into his hands. My each-way horse for the race would be Oscar Whiskey. He has been most impressive so far and hasn’t had to come off the bridle.
MF: Just to add to that, Oscar Whiskey is a horse that I know Nicky Henderson likes a lot and, for a novice to win the Totesport Trophy with the ease that Get Me Out Of Here did was sensational so he would be the one for me without the favourite.
CR: There hasn’t really been a back-breaking amount for Dunguib as he has been odds on for a while now but there has been money in the each-way market for Oscar Whiskey, Blackstairmountain and Get Me Out Of Here. If Dunguib jumps and gets to the finish, there is no doubt he will win. I understand that Paddy Power have taken so much on Dunguib that they may take Ireland back into recession!
The Tote went on to offer a one night only special on Dunguib at evens – the best industry price out there.
Arkle Chase
SM: This looks like an open renewal of the Arkle but do the cards lie with the Irish challenge?
MF: It is so often said that previous Cheltenham form is a big advantage and Captain Cee Bee certainly has that when winning the Supreme a couple of years ago ahead of Binocular. He would definitely have beaten Sizing Europe at Leopardstown if he hadn’t have fallen. However, Somersby has been trained specifically with Cheltenham in mind and was an unlucky loser somewhat in the Supreme last year. He is rated as a superstar by connections and is the one for me.
AT: Somersby was over a second quicker in the King Henry VIII than Twist Magic in the Tingle Creek when winning at Sandown in December. He is a good jumper and there should be no worries with the lay-off. If AP wasn’t tied to Captain Cee Bee, I think it would be a tough choice between the two for him. The downhill fences may find Captain Cee Bee out so I’m a Somersby fan.
KR: I think it’s good that Somersby goes to Cheltenham fresh and Henrietta has definitely done the right thing. He jumps at speed which I like and is a top-class horse. Tataniano maybe the dark horse as conditions weren’t right for him last time out and his win at Cheltenham back in November was a top performance.
CR: We are with Somersby at the moment as he hasn’t done anything wrong. There’s been plenty about for both Captain Cee Bee and Sizing Europe but I’m not convinced that Sizing Europe likes Cheltenham. There’s been some each-way money about for Riverside Theatre.
The next offer of the evening was Captain Cee Bee at an industry best price of 4/1
CR: If the first two favourites win it will cripple us and I may be out of a job!
Champion Hurdle
SM: It looks to be another wide open contest, who should we have on our side?
AT: Solwhit and Go Native have both got rock solid form but Solwhit may not act at Cheltenham; we simply don’t know. It’s a really awkward race between the top 5 or 6. Punjabi was encouraging at Cheltenham and those that fancied Zaynar shouldn’t be put off by his run at Kelso. Medermit won’t be far away if he gets a clear run and Khyber Kim seems to have grown up a lot since his switch to Nigel Twiston-Davies. These would be my two against the field.
MF: It would be criminal for people to write Punjabi off. He won the race last year off of the back of a bad run and has had a better preparation this time around. He really zipped at Kempton last time and I know for a fact that Barry Geraghty really likes him. Zaynar hated the ground at Kelso and shall be wearing cheek-pieces this time around, which will undoubtedly help him. On another note, Binocular had a gallop this morning and seemed to come out of it really well. He could yet go to post. But for me Go Native is the number one. He is a supreme traveller and has that all important course form. Solwhit needs cut but there looks to be a dry spell and it may not be soft enough for him.
KR: I’m a Go Native man. Celestial Halo is all about pace and both Zaynar and Solwhit look like stayers in my opinion. Starluck is a very live outsider though. He has been quietly brought through the season and Timmy Murphy took a gentle approach in the Christmas Hurdle. Theirs is a hell of a lot of each-way value there.
SM: There’s been a lot of talk about the going, they may even water.
AT: There is so much track at Cheltenham that there is always fresh ground to run on. If it dries between now and then, then they may well water as you can guarantee that they will make it good to soft on the day.
MF: If they have two more dry days then it will be good to firm and they will water. You can be sure that they won’t race on good ground on the first day.
CR: I’ll echo those sentiments; it will be made good to soft on Tuesday. Zaynar has been the money horse and the cheek-pieces have undoubtedly shortened his price. Medermit will not get near Go Native and I think Go Native is the best horse in the race. At a big price, Sublimity cannot be ruled out. Good Cheltenham form is always a plus.
Neptune Investment Novices’ Hurdle
SM: Another strong Irish challenge, can the home-trained horses step up to the plate?
KR: I’m a Finian’s Rainbow fan. He has the same sire as Tazbar and has a phenomenal cruising speed. He jumps well and gallops all the way to the finish. A really nice horse. Rite Of Passage hasn’t come off the bridle over hurdles yet and I’m not entirely convinced that he’ll find anything. Quel Esprit would be the main danger for me.
MF: Peddlers Cross is a horse I love. I’ve been very impressed with him and Jason Maguire has said that he’s the best horse that he’s ever ridden. Rite of Passage looks very good but he had his chance last year and he struggled at Cheltenham. Finian’s Rainbow looks a picture. He is much better than his run in the Challow Hurdle and Adrian Maguire, who trained him as a pointer in Ireland, has said that he could be the next Denman.
AT: Peddlers Cross travels really well and he looks like a professional horse. Rite Of Passage made hard work of the Cheltenham bumper last year so I’m not convinced that he handles the track. It’s strange to see a second season novice here but Reve De Sivola must go close. On paper, it could be between five with equal chances but Peddlers Cross holds the value for me.
CR: Rite Of Passage has definitely been backed by the right people. He has improved for his bumper third and should take all the beating if prominently ridden. I get the feeling that connections would be devastated if he weren’t to win. Peddlers Cross has been well backed each-way as has Reve De Sivola who has done nothing wrong. For me, Rite Of Passage is a banker though.
RSA Chase
SM: With Punchestowns having a setback in mid-week, is Long Run now the one to be on?
KR: My son James rides for six months of the year in France for Guillaume Macaire, who coincidentally trained Long Run in France. So we’ve known about Long Run for a while now. He is a machine and is so experienced. He coped very well with the tough fences at Auteuil and stays very well. I thought Tazbar was travelling brilliantly in the Feltham but Long Run just cruised past in second gear. He just ticks all the boxes.
MF: Long Run knows how to get the job done. If he was ridden by a more popular jockey then he would be an even money chance. But take nothing away from Sam Waley-Cohen, he is a good pilot and I would have no worries with him on board. He is still young and could be a real star. He made a top horse in Tazbar look pedestrian on Boxing Day. He is the real deal. Punchestowns should not be discounted. He had a gallop this morning and came home sound. The best bet is for Nicky Henderson to train the winner.
AT: This is an exceptional RSA. I don’t think that Diamond Harry and Weird Al, even though they are good horses, are in the class of the top two. The only slight worry with Long Run is whether he handles the undulations at Cheltenham so this has to be taken on trust. Burton Port at a bigger price looks the bet of the race for me. He is a confident chaser and seems to be the forgotten horse in the race. A Nicky Henderson 1-2-3 looks very much on the cards.
CR: We shall be putting Punchestowns in as a runner as we think he shall get over his setback but punters should sit tight at the moment as there is very little value here. We have been against Punchestowns and Weird Al in the each-way market. All the money in the last week has been for Long Run. He is going to take the world of beating.
Champion Chase
SM: Master Minded – Can he do it again?
AT: On his Newbury win, then yes he will. Kalahari King may go well but he will need quick ground to feature. Twist Magic seems to be a different horse this campaign but I do have my doubts as to whether he is quite as good around Cheltenham as he is at Sandown. The value in the race is Well Chief as he goes well fresh but you can’t really oppose Master Minded.
MF: Kalahari King has performed well at Cheltenham before and may be a good alternative. Ferdy Murphy is the expert at priming his horses for the big day so he should have a great chance. However, if Master Minded is given a lead, then there’s no stopping him. He jumped beautifully at Newbury, bar the last fence, and looks to be streets ahead of the rest.
KR: Ferdy Murphy didn’t expect Kalahari King to win last time out but he carried top weight well and just kept on going. If he is on Master Minded’s tail come three out, he is certain to stay on up the hill and could cause a bit of an upset. Definitely the each-way value in the race though.
CR: There looks like being only 8or 9 runners in the field so there’s good value in the each-way market. If the real Master Minded turns up on the day, then he has 10 or 12lbs in hand on the rest of the field. Twist Magic is better at Sandown, Big Zeb is not a Cheltenham horse and Forpadydeplasterer has had far too many setbacks. Kalahari King was very good at Doncaster and is the each-way value.
Ryanair Chase
SM: This looks to be very competitive, who has the edge?
MF: It is such an open contest. Planet of Sound cannot jump as badly as he did at Ascot if he’s going to feature. Poquelin and Tranquil Sea were close in November and look to be the top two for me. Tranquil Sea put in a good performance last time out, has a good Cheltenham record and is in good form so must have a live chance. Dessie Hughes has said that his best bet of the Festival is Schindlers Hunt each-way so that’s something else to consider. Barbers Shop has a good Cheltenham record and comes fit and fighting so must have a chance. An interesting one for me is Petit Robin following his switch from the Champion Chase. AP goes well on him so he could surprise.
AT: I think that 2m5f at Cheltenham will be perfect for Barbers Shop and racing off level weights will certainly help. Poquelin is better on good ground so we shall have to see on the day. Tranquil Sea has progressed really well and looks to be the real deal. He is on an upward curve physically and ticks all the boxes; as do the other two come to that matter. Voy Por Ustedes relishes racing at Cheltenham but his best days seem to be behind him now.
KR: Poquelin has done nothing wrong but it is a wide open race. I’m a big Barbers Shop fan. He travels well and has a chance. Voy Por Ustedes is rock solid at Cheltenham and looks to be a massive price for a horse of his class.
CR: Barbers Shop has been the best backed horse but he didn’t stay in the Hennessey and King George and we are against him. I think the Paddy Power form is key between Poquelin and Tranquil Sea but Nicholls’ runner should come out on top. Schindlers Hunt has been backed each-way but he has got to cut out the blunders.
World Hurdle
SM: Big Buck’s looks unbeatable, is he?
CR: Big Buck’s has been nibbled at but there hasn’t been heavy support because he is so short. Karabak is not even close and Sentry Duty may not stay. Time For Rupert has been backed each-way but Tidal Bay should be the only one to give Big Buck’s a run for his money. He is the each-way value.
MF: Big Buck’s would have to fall over to lose. We know that he always hits a flat spot but he just gets the job done. He’s not flashy but he is head and shoulders above anything else.
AT: Big Buck’s is uncomplicated and he has no notable flaws. Sentry Duty was a good flat horse so will need good ground to perform. He does go well fresh and could be there or thereabouts with a late challenge. Tidal Bay and Karabak are simply not good enough.
KR: Tidal Bay was not a natural chaser but I fancy him to go close now he’s back over hurdles. Big Buck’s can be caught out on fastish ground but it is still unlikely that he will be beaten.
Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
SM: Some potential superstars here, will the home-trained horses come out on top?
AT: Tell Massini has been very impressive and he has tackled each race with the utmost professionalism so is a worthy favourite. I would want Restless Harry on my side if it turns out to be very soft but the Friday is normally run on the best ground of the week. The Betchworth Kid has good flat form and would be suited by a strongly run race on decent ground.
MF: The Albert Bartlett often throws up some strange results but Tell Massini is my nap of the meeting. If the form works out, then he will definitely shorten during the week. I can’t see any negatives with him. Quel Esprit is attractive at a big price and Najaf looks to be class but Cheltenham seems to be a bit of an afterthought.
KR: Tell Massini is the only one for me.
CR: There has been good each-way money for Enterprise Park. He has done very little wrong but this is a big step up. There has been money for Shinrock Paddy but he will need it to be soft. I think Tell Massini may be vulnerable on soft ground so Restless Harry is my choice. He jumps well and the step up in trip should suit so he will take all the beating.
Gold Cup
SM: Looks to be a two horse race but which one?
CR: It’s likely to be a very small field so there is very little each-way value. There was money for Denman early on in the season but that has now dried up. Cooldine and Imperial Commander have both been backed each-way but I can’t see Kauto Star losing. The King George was his best race to date and Denman was very very poor in the Aon; I can even see him finishing out of the frame. Willie Mullins has got Cooldine ready to peak but he will have had to improve a great deal to feature.
MF: Denman has had heart problems but he was unbelievable in the Hennessey and I think he would have won the Aon had he not fell. Paul Nicholls is no mug and he knew that Denman would improve for that run. I cannot believe that people are questioning the booking of AP for the ride. He has been the best national hunt jockey for over a decade so of course he is the right man for the job. There is no doubt that this is going to be the race of the year but Denman will have to be extraordinary to beat Kauto Star.
AT: Kauto Star is the one for me. He wasn’t right when Denman beat him but I can’t see Nicholls making the same mistake again. With Denman, you would have said that he was going to be an easy winner of the Aon four out but he slipped, which was neither his nor AP’s fault, and lost the race. Tricky Trickster is the top one for the place money. He is peaking at the right time and should definitely make the frame. Imperial Commander saves his best for Cheltenham but he may not stay.
KR: Paul Nicholls holds all the aces. As a trainer, I know how hard it is to keep horses sound and Paul seems to be the best at it. It’s a marvellous feat. I can see a Nicholls 1-2-3 with Kauto Star, Tricky Trickster and Denman in that order. Cooldine is not as good on decent ground so he wouldn’t be for me.
Triumph Hurdle
SM: The Irish challenge looks very strong this year but who’s their number one?
AT Carlito Brigante seems to be a decent price considering he has already beaten Alaivan. He had a spin at Musselburgh on decent ground so we know he will handle almost any surface. Westlin’ Winds looks to be a big price considering his form with Mille Chief. He was a decent flat horse so should get on well with the better Friday ground.
MF: Edward O’Grady has said that Alaivan has been doing amazing things on the gallops but he is a really tiny horse and was very keen when winning a mickey mouse race latest. He is a nice horse but not for me. Advisor has done nothing wrong and I really like Carlito Brigante. His jockey Davy Russell loves him.
KR: I think that class tells in the Triumph and for the last few seasons only top top horses have been successful. Advisor fits into that bracket in my opinion.
CR: From an each-way perspective, there is value as most firms are offering four places and there only likely to be 12 or so runners on the day. Alaivan has been well backed as has Soldatino. Alaivan pulls too hard for my liking. Carlito Brigante is the each-way bet of the Festival.
PANEL’S BEST BETS
CR: Carlito Brigante e/w
AT: Somersby
MF: Nicky Henderson to win the RSA Chase and Tell Massini
KR: Long Run
PANEL’S WORST BETS
CR: Denman
AT: Quevega
MF: Alaivan
KR: Rite Of Passage
Panel
Simon Mapletoft (MC) SM
Craig Reid (Tote) CR
Andrew Thornton AT
Mick Fitzgerald MF
Keith Reveley KR
There were a couple of changes on the panel as Ferdy Murphy and Denis O’Regan had other commitments but Andy Thornton and Keith Reveley were more than suitable replacements for the first ever Preview Evening at Doncaster.
Supreme Novices’
SM: So, starting off with many peoples’ banker of the week, can Dunguib be beaten?
MF: There is no doubting Dunguib’s ability and I’d definitely be backing him if he were to take his place in the Champion Hurdle.
AT: Better ground would be an advantage for him as the quicker they go the better it seems but I can’t see him beaten I’m afraid even if it’s on the soft side. Get Me Out Of here has an advantage with his experience in big fields and Blackstairmountain may be one to fill a place.
KR: It’s normally a pacy track on the Tuesday which will certainly play into his hands. My each-way horse for the race would be Oscar Whiskey. He has been most impressive so far and hasn’t had to come off the bridle.
MF: Just to add to that, Oscar Whiskey is a horse that I know Nicky Henderson likes a lot and, for a novice to win the Totesport Trophy with the ease that Get Me Out Of Here did was sensational so he would be the one for me without the favourite.
CR: There hasn’t really been a back-breaking amount for Dunguib as he has been odds on for a while now but there has been money in the each-way market for Oscar Whiskey, Blackstairmountain and Get Me Out Of Here. If Dunguib jumps and gets to the finish, there is no doubt he will win. I understand that Paddy Power have taken so much on Dunguib that they may take Ireland back into recession!
The Tote went on to offer a one night only special on Dunguib at evens – the best industry price out there.
Arkle Chase
SM: This looks like an open renewal of the Arkle but do the cards lie with the Irish challenge?
MF: It is so often said that previous Cheltenham form is a big advantage and Captain Cee Bee certainly has that when winning the Supreme a couple of years ago ahead of Binocular. He would definitely have beaten Sizing Europe at Leopardstown if he hadn’t have fallen. However, Somersby has been trained specifically with Cheltenham in mind and was an unlucky loser somewhat in the Supreme last year. He is rated as a superstar by connections and is the one for me.
AT: Somersby was over a second quicker in the King Henry VIII than Twist Magic in the Tingle Creek when winning at Sandown in December. He is a good jumper and there should be no worries with the lay-off. If AP wasn’t tied to Captain Cee Bee, I think it would be a tough choice between the two for him. The downhill fences may find Captain Cee Bee out so I’m a Somersby fan.
KR: I think it’s good that Somersby goes to Cheltenham fresh and Henrietta has definitely done the right thing. He jumps at speed which I like and is a top-class horse. Tataniano maybe the dark horse as conditions weren’t right for him last time out and his win at Cheltenham back in November was a top performance.
CR: We are with Somersby at the moment as he hasn’t done anything wrong. There’s been plenty about for both Captain Cee Bee and Sizing Europe but I’m not convinced that Sizing Europe likes Cheltenham. There’s been some each-way money about for Riverside Theatre.
The next offer of the evening was Captain Cee Bee at an industry best price of 4/1
CR: If the first two favourites win it will cripple us and I may be out of a job!
Champion Hurdle
SM: It looks to be another wide open contest, who should we have on our side?
AT: Solwhit and Go Native have both got rock solid form but Solwhit may not act at Cheltenham; we simply don’t know. It’s a really awkward race between the top 5 or 6. Punjabi was encouraging at Cheltenham and those that fancied Zaynar shouldn’t be put off by his run at Kelso. Medermit won’t be far away if he gets a clear run and Khyber Kim seems to have grown up a lot since his switch to Nigel Twiston-Davies. These would be my two against the field.
MF: It would be criminal for people to write Punjabi off. He won the race last year off of the back of a bad run and has had a better preparation this time around. He really zipped at Kempton last time and I know for a fact that Barry Geraghty really likes him. Zaynar hated the ground at Kelso and shall be wearing cheek-pieces this time around, which will undoubtedly help him. On another note, Binocular had a gallop this morning and seemed to come out of it really well. He could yet go to post. But for me Go Native is the number one. He is a supreme traveller and has that all important course form. Solwhit needs cut but there looks to be a dry spell and it may not be soft enough for him.
KR: I’m a Go Native man. Celestial Halo is all about pace and both Zaynar and Solwhit look like stayers in my opinion. Starluck is a very live outsider though. He has been quietly brought through the season and Timmy Murphy took a gentle approach in the Christmas Hurdle. Theirs is a hell of a lot of each-way value there.
SM: There’s been a lot of talk about the going, they may even water.
AT: There is so much track at Cheltenham that there is always fresh ground to run on. If it dries between now and then, then they may well water as you can guarantee that they will make it good to soft on the day.
MF: If they have two more dry days then it will be good to firm and they will water. You can be sure that they won’t race on good ground on the first day.
CR: I’ll echo those sentiments; it will be made good to soft on Tuesday. Zaynar has been the money horse and the cheek-pieces have undoubtedly shortened his price. Medermit will not get near Go Native and I think Go Native is the best horse in the race. At a big price, Sublimity cannot be ruled out. Good Cheltenham form is always a plus.
Neptune Investment Novices’ Hurdle
SM: Another strong Irish challenge, can the home-trained horses step up to the plate?
KR: I’m a Finian’s Rainbow fan. He has the same sire as Tazbar and has a phenomenal cruising speed. He jumps well and gallops all the way to the finish. A really nice horse. Rite Of Passage hasn’t come off the bridle over hurdles yet and I’m not entirely convinced that he’ll find anything. Quel Esprit would be the main danger for me.
MF: Peddlers Cross is a horse I love. I’ve been very impressed with him and Jason Maguire has said that he’s the best horse that he’s ever ridden. Rite of Passage looks very good but he had his chance last year and he struggled at Cheltenham. Finian’s Rainbow looks a picture. He is much better than his run in the Challow Hurdle and Adrian Maguire, who trained him as a pointer in Ireland, has said that he could be the next Denman.
AT: Peddlers Cross travels really well and he looks like a professional horse. Rite Of Passage made hard work of the Cheltenham bumper last year so I’m not convinced that he handles the track. It’s strange to see a second season novice here but Reve De Sivola must go close. On paper, it could be between five with equal chances but Peddlers Cross holds the value for me.
CR: Rite Of Passage has definitely been backed by the right people. He has improved for his bumper third and should take all the beating if prominently ridden. I get the feeling that connections would be devastated if he weren’t to win. Peddlers Cross has been well backed each-way as has Reve De Sivola who has done nothing wrong. For me, Rite Of Passage is a banker though.
RSA Chase
SM: With Punchestowns having a setback in mid-week, is Long Run now the one to be on?
KR: My son James rides for six months of the year in France for Guillaume Macaire, who coincidentally trained Long Run in France. So we’ve known about Long Run for a while now. He is a machine and is so experienced. He coped very well with the tough fences at Auteuil and stays very well. I thought Tazbar was travelling brilliantly in the Feltham but Long Run just cruised past in second gear. He just ticks all the boxes.
MF: Long Run knows how to get the job done. If he was ridden by a more popular jockey then he would be an even money chance. But take nothing away from Sam Waley-Cohen, he is a good pilot and I would have no worries with him on board. He is still young and could be a real star. He made a top horse in Tazbar look pedestrian on Boxing Day. He is the real deal. Punchestowns should not be discounted. He had a gallop this morning and came home sound. The best bet is for Nicky Henderson to train the winner.
AT: This is an exceptional RSA. I don’t think that Diamond Harry and Weird Al, even though they are good horses, are in the class of the top two. The only slight worry with Long Run is whether he handles the undulations at Cheltenham so this has to be taken on trust. Burton Port at a bigger price looks the bet of the race for me. He is a confident chaser and seems to be the forgotten horse in the race. A Nicky Henderson 1-2-3 looks very much on the cards.
CR: We shall be putting Punchestowns in as a runner as we think he shall get over his setback but punters should sit tight at the moment as there is very little value here. We have been against Punchestowns and Weird Al in the each-way market. All the money in the last week has been for Long Run. He is going to take the world of beating.
Champion Chase
SM: Master Minded – Can he do it again?
AT: On his Newbury win, then yes he will. Kalahari King may go well but he will need quick ground to feature. Twist Magic seems to be a different horse this campaign but I do have my doubts as to whether he is quite as good around Cheltenham as he is at Sandown. The value in the race is Well Chief as he goes well fresh but you can’t really oppose Master Minded.
MF: Kalahari King has performed well at Cheltenham before and may be a good alternative. Ferdy Murphy is the expert at priming his horses for the big day so he should have a great chance. However, if Master Minded is given a lead, then there’s no stopping him. He jumped beautifully at Newbury, bar the last fence, and looks to be streets ahead of the rest.
KR: Ferdy Murphy didn’t expect Kalahari King to win last time out but he carried top weight well and just kept on going. If he is on Master Minded’s tail come three out, he is certain to stay on up the hill and could cause a bit of an upset. Definitely the each-way value in the race though.
CR: There looks like being only 8or 9 runners in the field so there’s good value in the each-way market. If the real Master Minded turns up on the day, then he has 10 or 12lbs in hand on the rest of the field. Twist Magic is better at Sandown, Big Zeb is not a Cheltenham horse and Forpadydeplasterer has had far too many setbacks. Kalahari King was very good at Doncaster and is the each-way value.
Ryanair Chase
SM: This looks to be very competitive, who has the edge?
MF: It is such an open contest. Planet of Sound cannot jump as badly as he did at Ascot if he’s going to feature. Poquelin and Tranquil Sea were close in November and look to be the top two for me. Tranquil Sea put in a good performance last time out, has a good Cheltenham record and is in good form so must have a live chance. Dessie Hughes has said that his best bet of the Festival is Schindlers Hunt each-way so that’s something else to consider. Barbers Shop has a good Cheltenham record and comes fit and fighting so must have a chance. An interesting one for me is Petit Robin following his switch from the Champion Chase. AP goes well on him so he could surprise.
AT: I think that 2m5f at Cheltenham will be perfect for Barbers Shop and racing off level weights will certainly help. Poquelin is better on good ground so we shall have to see on the day. Tranquil Sea has progressed really well and looks to be the real deal. He is on an upward curve physically and ticks all the boxes; as do the other two come to that matter. Voy Por Ustedes relishes racing at Cheltenham but his best days seem to be behind him now.
KR: Poquelin has done nothing wrong but it is a wide open race. I’m a big Barbers Shop fan. He travels well and has a chance. Voy Por Ustedes is rock solid at Cheltenham and looks to be a massive price for a horse of his class.
CR: Barbers Shop has been the best backed horse but he didn’t stay in the Hennessey and King George and we are against him. I think the Paddy Power form is key between Poquelin and Tranquil Sea but Nicholls’ runner should come out on top. Schindlers Hunt has been backed each-way but he has got to cut out the blunders.
World Hurdle
SM: Big Buck’s looks unbeatable, is he?
CR: Big Buck’s has been nibbled at but there hasn’t been heavy support because he is so short. Karabak is not even close and Sentry Duty may not stay. Time For Rupert has been backed each-way but Tidal Bay should be the only one to give Big Buck’s a run for his money. He is the each-way value.
MF: Big Buck’s would have to fall over to lose. We know that he always hits a flat spot but he just gets the job done. He’s not flashy but he is head and shoulders above anything else.
AT: Big Buck’s is uncomplicated and he has no notable flaws. Sentry Duty was a good flat horse so will need good ground to perform. He does go well fresh and could be there or thereabouts with a late challenge. Tidal Bay and Karabak are simply not good enough.
KR: Tidal Bay was not a natural chaser but I fancy him to go close now he’s back over hurdles. Big Buck’s can be caught out on fastish ground but it is still unlikely that he will be beaten.
Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
SM: Some potential superstars here, will the home-trained horses come out on top?
AT: Tell Massini has been very impressive and he has tackled each race with the utmost professionalism so is a worthy favourite. I would want Restless Harry on my side if it turns out to be very soft but the Friday is normally run on the best ground of the week. The Betchworth Kid has good flat form and would be suited by a strongly run race on decent ground.
MF: The Albert Bartlett often throws up some strange results but Tell Massini is my nap of the meeting. If the form works out, then he will definitely shorten during the week. I can’t see any negatives with him. Quel Esprit is attractive at a big price and Najaf looks to be class but Cheltenham seems to be a bit of an afterthought.
KR: Tell Massini is the only one for me.
CR: There has been good each-way money for Enterprise Park. He has done very little wrong but this is a big step up. There has been money for Shinrock Paddy but he will need it to be soft. I think Tell Massini may be vulnerable on soft ground so Restless Harry is my choice. He jumps well and the step up in trip should suit so he will take all the beating.
Gold Cup
SM: Looks to be a two horse race but which one?
CR: It’s likely to be a very small field so there is very little each-way value. There was money for Denman early on in the season but that has now dried up. Cooldine and Imperial Commander have both been backed each-way but I can’t see Kauto Star losing. The King George was his best race to date and Denman was very very poor in the Aon; I can even see him finishing out of the frame. Willie Mullins has got Cooldine ready to peak but he will have had to improve a great deal to feature.
MF: Denman has had heart problems but he was unbelievable in the Hennessey and I think he would have won the Aon had he not fell. Paul Nicholls is no mug and he knew that Denman would improve for that run. I cannot believe that people are questioning the booking of AP for the ride. He has been the best national hunt jockey for over a decade so of course he is the right man for the job. There is no doubt that this is going to be the race of the year but Denman will have to be extraordinary to beat Kauto Star.
AT: Kauto Star is the one for me. He wasn’t right when Denman beat him but I can’t see Nicholls making the same mistake again. With Denman, you would have said that he was going to be an easy winner of the Aon four out but he slipped, which was neither his nor AP’s fault, and lost the race. Tricky Trickster is the top one for the place money. He is peaking at the right time and should definitely make the frame. Imperial Commander saves his best for Cheltenham but he may not stay.
KR: Paul Nicholls holds all the aces. As a trainer, I know how hard it is to keep horses sound and Paul seems to be the best at it. It’s a marvellous feat. I can see a Nicholls 1-2-3 with Kauto Star, Tricky Trickster and Denman in that order. Cooldine is not as good on decent ground so he wouldn’t be for me.
Triumph Hurdle
SM: The Irish challenge looks very strong this year but who’s their number one?
AT Carlito Brigante seems to be a decent price considering he has already beaten Alaivan. He had a spin at Musselburgh on decent ground so we know he will handle almost any surface. Westlin’ Winds looks to be a big price considering his form with Mille Chief. He was a decent flat horse so should get on well with the better Friday ground.
MF: Edward O’Grady has said that Alaivan has been doing amazing things on the gallops but he is a really tiny horse and was very keen when winning a mickey mouse race latest. He is a nice horse but not for me. Advisor has done nothing wrong and I really like Carlito Brigante. His jockey Davy Russell loves him.
KR: I think that class tells in the Triumph and for the last few seasons only top top horses have been successful. Advisor fits into that bracket in my opinion.
CR: From an each-way perspective, there is value as most firms are offering four places and there only likely to be 12 or so runners on the day. Alaivan has been well backed as has Soldatino. Alaivan pulls too hard for my liking. Carlito Brigante is the each-way bet of the Festival.
PANEL’S BEST BETS
CR: Carlito Brigante e/w
AT: Somersby
MF: Nicky Henderson to win the RSA Chase and Tell Massini
KR: Long Run
PANEL’S WORST BETS
CR: Denman
AT: Quevega
MF: Alaivan
KR: Rite Of Passage
