Sheikh
At the Start
Couldn't agree more.
Cheltenham Festival: Preview Nights
- Thread starter krizon
- Start date
Couldn't agree more.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Not so much previews, but the choices put by various pundits/owners/trainers for banker of the meeting on RPTV are just appalling. If I was the Post's editor I would sack Winstanley for picking Tricky Trickster.
Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
- Joined
- May 2, 2003
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Chipping Camden last night
Robert Cooper ran the show which featured Alan King (AK), professional punter Alan Potts (AP) Channel 4’s Richard Hoiles (RH), Sean Graham Bookmakers’ Ronan Graham (RG).
SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE
AK: Get Me Out Of Here would have won even better for a mistake at the last at Newbury and could win in a normal year but it’s not a normal year with Dunguib in the race and I think the favourite will be suited by a faster pace and better ground as he is by Presenting.
AP: Dunguib is not a good thing because of his age, jockey and his jumping. I thought he was on the wrong lead most of the way at Leopardstown and think he would prefer going right handed but that part of his game improved as the race went on. He is not value but I can not get away from the fact he looks a machine so I can not lay him either. I think he could touch 11/8 on Betfair as the main layers on there are British.
RH: This is definitely not a soft renewal that Dunguib has to deal with and the key is what price he will be as to whether we back him. I like the fact Get Me Out Of Here won a big handicap and I also know how bullish the yard are about him so would go for him on value grounds.
RG: Seemingly everyone in Ireland wants to be on Dunguib but everyone in Britain wants to be against him. I’ve not seen his like before and he beat 14 subsequent winners in last year’s Festival Bumper. I can’t see serious money for anything beyond the big two.
ARKLE TROPHY
AK: I’ve never liked Sizing Europe as I don’t think he likes a battle. I just worry Captain Cee Bee lands too steeply and if he does that at pace two out he will be upside down. I’m most keen on Riverside Theatre and at a big price I’m Delilah.
AP: I’m very much in the Somersby camp and sometimes you have to go with what you see. If you see one horse in the paddock all Festival make sure it is Somersby. In 40 years of watching racing, very good six-year-olds virtually always beat very good nine-year-olds and he is a strong bet.
RH: Few 9yos of Captain Cee Bee’s class have run in the race and his form lines are working out so well so he is my fancy. Sports Line was mugged last time after getting embroiled in an early fight so feel he is underestimated. Somersby is priced on being such a nice-looking, beautiful-jumping horse than pure form.
RG: The Henry De Bromhead team are bang out of form for Sizing Europe with one placed horse in their last 16 and his An Cathaoir Mor was friendless before running terribly the other day so that worries me but I still like him most. I am against Sports Line who won an egg and spoon race and was beaten next time whilst Osana looks to have fallen out of love with the game. Nicanor is a big price as hates the heavy ground in Ireland but will like this better. If Captain Cee Bee jumps he wins, but I don’t think he will jump.
CHAMPION HURDLE
AK: Medermit is very much in the mix. His preparation has gone great, he loves to be fresh and the ground should be okay for him. I walked it today and it will probably ride quite dead. There is not much at all between many of these.
AP: There are nine horses rated between 161-168 so this is wide open. I fancied Medermit when he was 14/1 but is too short now. If I was laying I would lay the Henderson trio on the old Derby adage that if you think you have three Champion Hurdlers then you probably have none. Solwhit wins races so I would go with him if pressed if I knew he were over his problems and fully fit.
RH: Last year’s race has struggled to work out and I can find holes in all this season’s runners. Two bookmakers have told me there was precious little wrong at all with Solwhit and the rumours could have been for market manipulation. I will tentatively side with Go Native
RG: Jumbo Rio is a massive e/w price at 100/1. Forget last year’s Triumph as he was kicked at the start. I’m not a big Solwhit fan as don’t think his form lines are strong enough.
TUESDAY SHOULDER RACES
AK: The mistake by Bensalem at the cross fence at Newbury has done him a lot of good as he has learned from that. We have schooled him extensively since then in a noseband which has made him concentrate more. If he is not better than a 143 horse I will be very surprised and think you will see a totally different horse on Tuesday in the William Hill. Ogee is another novice that can go well and will be a decent price. On the cross country I would just say the owners of Halcon Genelardais may go down this route with him next season. In the mares race it will be a hell of a training feat if Quevega wins so I will go with Voler La Vedette.
AP: I’m not having a bet in the William Hill and am embarrassed someone called Alan Potts is even having a runner in the cross country (Sizing Australia). The amount of times I have been congratulated when Sizing Europe has won you wouldn’t believe. Apparently the owner is also fed up getting asked for tips! I would want to lay Quevega and Voler La Vedette if they start at under 2/1. Easter Legend is the best of the bigger priced runners as improved with each run this season, has won at the course and will like dropping back in trip as 3m stretched her last time.
RH: I’ve major concerns over the form of the Pipe yard for The Package and thinking about place-laying lots of his Festival runners. I would go for Character Building in the William Hill Chase as has a solid Festival record and is lightly raced this season. I walked the cross country course and they haven’t watered it so it will be the fastest ground of the meeting so don’t back a soft ground horse. Find out which horse McManus has backed! I’ve heard Quevega has had a problem before the Mares Hurdle as she is a massive drifter. The ground might not be ideal for J’Y Vole and the value has gone with Voler La Vedette so I suggest Sway who is highly rated but I also know is very highly strung and the intention is to switch her off and ride here right in rear. She could be worth taking a chance on.
RG: I think Nenuphar Collonges is good e/w value at 20/1 in the William Hill Chase as he is a Festival winner and was only beaten a length in this race last season. If Sizing Europe runs well in the Arkle then Sizing Australia could be one of the e/w bets of the meeting in the cross country. At our preview night in Belfast on Monday Colm Murphy was ultra sweet on Voler La Vedette. I have heard that some of J P McManus’ connections have backed Sway.
NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE
AK: The step up in trip and better ground will suit Manyriverstocross but this is a seriously strong renewal. He will run well and is a bit of value at 25s. Finians Rainbow may have looked very good at Ascot but he beat trees. I had the third in that race.
AP: An Irish benefit this year and I reckon Quel Esprit will give Mullins and Walsh their third winner of this race on the spin.
RH: Rite Of Passage has won two weak races and I don’t like Weld’s Festival record. Therefore I prefer Quel Esprit whose form was franked by the horse that beat him last time. Four horses were covered by a blanket in the Challow and they all can not to be top class so I would be against Finians Rainbow who didn’t win the race anyway.
RG: Rite Of Passage travels so well I think he is value at 7/2. Quel Esprit is not a horse I would be rushing to back as was long odds-on and beaten on merit last time.
RSA CHASE
AK: I’ve no doubt that Long Run is the best horse but whether he will win is an entirely different matter. I’m told he works spectacularly but that lights him up so Sam will have a job settling him. The mistake at Sandown probably did Punchestowns a lot of good as will have learned from that. He has had lameness problems all his life so I read little into that scare last weekend. I’m sure Long Run is the best horse but I would back Punchestowns given a choice. I was disappointed with Diamond Harry at Newbury.
AP: Punchestowns is the best hurdler to run in this race and I think he will win with a degree of comfort. Long Run is a phenomenal performer but all his form is on flat tracks and he won’t get away with brushing through the top of fences at Cheltenham.
RH: Everyone says it is a cheap shot to have a go at Sam Waley-Cohen but we are still all doing it. Long Run makes mistakes so being amateur-ridden worries me. The scare surrounding Punchestowns has made him an excellent price. The condition dropped off Diamond Harry at Newbury and he didn’t look as well as he did at Haydock. He has been badly campaigned this season with the late switch to chases for a horse that does not hold his condition well.
RG: If Solwhit ran well in the Champion Hurdle do not forget Weapon’s Amnesty. The word is that J P is on Long Run and at our preview evening Mick Fitz didn’t even mention Punchestowns, he could only talk about Long Run. If he ran I would tentatively go with The Nightingale.
QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
AK: Master Minded is the banker of the week. He should be 1/3 not 4/5. His performance at Newbury was right back to his best of two years ago and 4/5 is a massive price.
AP: Master Minded, no question. End of. It’s incredible what he has done so far and is only a 7yo. His Newbury performance told me he is 100% right and I will be very surprised if he does not win.
RH: I’ve not been a Master Minded fan ever since Nicholls told me about his tying up (cramping) problem that he keeps touching on but has never really explained. I don’t often back shortish prices e/w but Kalahari King appeals. They have cocked up Big Zeb’s season by running him in the Tingle Creek and I think he could be the 2m version of Beef or Salmon over here. If I was to lay Master Minded it would be for a place as his problems are physical.
RG: Of the four shorties this week Master Minded is the one bookies will want to get and I reckon he could be about Evens. Kalahari King is the e/w bet of the meeting.
WEDNESDAY SHOULDER RACES
AK: I run Pennek in the four-miler and Josh Moore rides. He is an out-and-out stayer who will be staying on but lacks a bit of class for it. In the Coral Cup we run three. Lake Legend has deliberately not run since Christmas where he went up 10lbs so we didn’t want him going up again and Wayne Hutchinson keeps the ride. Sir Harry Ormesher is very talented and was impressive at Doncaster and good ground is key for him but he is very hot headed and could wipe someone out on the way to the start so see what he does in the prelims first. We run Silk Hall as well and Quantitativeeasing worries me most. Causeway King has been our Fred Winter horse all season, so much so, we didn’t enter him for the Triumph but wish we had now. But he is now on 132 which is high enough. It’s a close call if Gilded Age gets in but I would be very keen on him if he did. Shot From The Hip is the best bumper horse I’ve seen this season but I would be very worried about the jockey. I thought it was interesting Ruby rides Al Ferof for Paul and not the Mullins horses.
AP: My banker of the meeting is Sanctuaire in the Fred Winter who could be backed into around 3/1 so take the 6s now. In think 127 is incredibly lenient, he fits the key stats for the race and will be too good for handicaps after this. Mobaasher is the horse I like in the NH Chase as he loves decent ground and has run three solid races at the Festival before. He could be too classy for these. No view in the Coral Cup as Shadow Dancer won’t get in and I think he could be the best handicapped horse in the country. I’m expecting him to win a small race so he can get in one of the handicaps at Aintree. I’ve no interest in the bumper.
RH: Askmeroe is interesting for Tony Martin in the four-miler and James De Vassy and Lake Legend are my two against the field in the Coral Cup with a preference for the former. I have a strong view that Sanctuaire is the one for the Fred Winter as feel French form is undervalued by the handicapper and he is one of the best bets of the week. Frawley and Drumbaloo would be my two against the field in the bumper with slight preference for Frawley.
RG: Saddlers Storm won today for Tony Martin and is a major player for the NH Chase if turning out again on wednesday and Becauseicouldntsee could be anything for Noel Glynn as he was very impressive last time. Beshabar needs cut for the Coral Cup so I go with Wishfull Thinking with the Hobbs yard bang in form after their Imperial Cup 1-2. Sanctuaire has the right profile for the Fred Winter and the Irish don’t have much for this. The 6s won’t last long. In the bumper I like Frawley as John Kiely is a top trainer of bumper horses. Shot From The Hip was impressive but has to overcome the fact he has a less experienced amateur on board.
RYANAIR CHASE
AK: Voy Por Ustedes is very good value indeed at 16/1 and he wears blinkers. He fairly scooted away from his work rival in them last week and I think he if takes to them in a race he will outclass these. He seems right back to his best. Barbers Shop is okay bullying lesser lights and won’t finish in the first three.
AP: I’m a big Poquelin fan who looks in the same mould as Taranis who won this race. This is run on the New Course which he won the Boylesports on and I think Tranquil Sea will be much better suited to the Old Course on which he won the Paddy Power. Barbers Shop could mince his way into third.
RH: My biggest ante-post position is on Barbers Shop and I make him my banker of the Festival. I’m convinced he doesn’t stay 3m so how can you expect him to finish his races properly over that trip? I’ve more concerns about Poquelin’s head than I do Barbers Shop.
RG: One of the big three will win it with Scotsirish the best e/w shot. He will be staying on well and jumps well.
WORLD HURDLE
AK: I think Katchit is very good value. He has not worked so well in a long time and on goodish ground he has all his old bounce back and now needs 3m. Karabak has run well both times this season and will also like good ground. Hopefully Big Buck’s will not come out of his flat spot one day.
AP: I was big on Big Buck’s last year at 6/1 but he is 4/6 this time so I won’t be playing. I was keen on Karabak without the favourite but his trainer seems to prefer Katchit.
RH: If you fancy Big Buck’s then it must be in-running as he has touched odds-against both starts this season. I am a Tidal Bay e/w man as that seems the logical approach. Big Buck’s could be vulnerable to a horse of his similar type which Tidal Bay is in that he is quirky, had been chasing and looks like he will be held up. He also has an excellent Festival record despite a most unbecoming head carriage.
RG: Big Buck’s could lengthen to around 4/6 on course. It’s Karabak e/w for me.
THURSDAY SHOULDER RACES
AK: In the Jewson we have Awesome George who won well the other day and has a penalty. He will run well but it’s a very competitive race. I have Trenchant and Chamirey in the Pertemps Final and the latter is more interesting as Trenchant probably had his day winning the National Spirit and is too high in the handicap to win in my opinion. Chamirey will support blinkers for the first time and is a thorough stayer. Green Belt Elite is interesting for the Plate if he runs. (significantly he didn’t mention Tarotino at all which I read into that as a positive rather than a negative).
AP: No bet in the Jewson but I’m surprised The Hollinwell is as short as he is as he looks like a four-mile prospect in the making. Alfie Sherrin is 5lbs well in for the Pertemps Final and his last win is working out spectacularly well. He is the most likely winner but I won’t be backing him at the price. Ainama is interesting even if McCoy rides another J P horse. How can I put it kindly about Ainama’s two runs this season? I will be switching off the computer after the World Hurdle so am not tempted to bet in the Plate or Kim Muir.
RH: The Hollinwell has had a very similar preparation to L’Antartique who won the Jewson for the same yard. If the Pipe horses are running okay I like Buena Vista e/w in the Pertemps Final as he has run well at each of the last five Festivals. I fluked the 33/1 winner of the Plate last year by just going through the trends so tried it again this year and came up with Nomecheki though I can see Private Be making the frame. I really like Shillingstone in the Kim Muir but note his regular amateur is not booked to ride and I rather wish he was not that I have anything against Mark Walford.
RG: China Rock has been running well in pattern races and that is a good trend for the Jewson. Smoking Aces and Prince Erik have good chances for Ireland in the Pertemps Final. I am looking forward to the Plate as the last ten winners have all been at double figure prices! I’moncloudnine interests me most in the Kim Muir.
TRIUMPH HURDLE
AK: We might run Gilded Age if he is balloted out of the Fred Winter. Westlin’ Winds’ form with Mille Chief is very good as he was attempting to give us 10lbs so he would be my fancy.
AP: The three best juveniles in GB don’t even run in Escort Men, Royal Mix and Me Voici so the Irish can dominate with Alaivan looking their best. Very impressive last time and his jumping was slick. He has a similar to profile to Celestial Halo who won this race two years ago and he is the best bet on the final day.
RH: I can forgive Alaivan one bad run when he got buzzed up and they tried different tactics on him. I see Pittoni is another Charles Byrnes horse to have recovered to run at the Festival despite being “clinically abnormal”. In future when he says one of his is an unlikely runner, watch it drift and then back it.
RG: You say the Brits are no good and I’m not sure the Irish are much better. Carlito Brigante has done nothing wrong and he beat Alaivan in no uncertain terms. Rumours last week were that Secant Star wasn’t going to run but he has looked visually the most impressive of the Irish.
ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE
AK: The Betchworth Kid has the ability and I think he will get the trip but have a slight question mark over his attitude and just hope he is man enough. I’ve been tremendously impressed with Tell Massini. Silver Kate is a relentless galloper that could outrun her odds.
AP: Tell Massini and Restless Harry could set it up for a hold up horse so what is Ruby Walsh going to ride? Probably Enterprise Park.
RH: If the rains arrive then Tell Massini would be difficult to beat but if not I like Enterprise Park.
RG: Fionnegas has been well backed this week. I hear if the rain does not come Enterprise Park may be pulled out leaving Fionnegas as the Mullins runner but Shinrock Paddy is the best of the Irish for me.
GOLD CUP
AK: It’s dangerous to write off Denman again but he is now a Jekyll and Hyde horse in that he is very good or bloody awful and no in-between. My lads told me that at Newbury he didn’t want to do anything that day from leaving his box to entering the paddock. The only possible danger to Kauto Star is Cooldine. It will be terrible if Tricky Trickster wins. How the hell can a horse rated 149 win the Gold Cup?
AP: Denman has fallen in two of his last three starts and launched himself into the fence on both occasions. He needs glasses. If he jumps well I think he will run okay but Kauto Star is a class apart. The best bet is without the big two where I fancy Tricky Trickster to stay on strongly and run through beaten horses.
RH: Denman got into a beautiful rhythm when he won the Gold Cup but when he is flat to the boards he is a hit or miss job at his fences. I’ve been with Cooldine all season and am happy enough with that.
RG: We’ve backed Imperial Commander at 12/1 and Kauto Star at 4/5 as Denman is only going to drift. No one wants to back him.
FRIDAY SHOULDER RACES
AK: Nicholls won the County Hurdle with a novice last season and I know since Taunton last year they have had this race in mind for another novice in Tito Bustillo. I hear Baby Run has improved for his Warwick win and he won at Punchestown last season so maybe him for the Foxhunters’. We run Saticon in the Fred Winter and Balzaccio if he gets in but Peveril could be a lot better than a handicapper for Henderson. We run Oh Crick in the Grand Annual who won it last year off 10st but he has 11st 8lbs this time. There will be horses too well handicapped for him. Green Belt Flyer for me if he runs.
AP: Bellvano strikes me as an ideal County Hurdle horse as he made his ground so quickly at Newbury last time from rear and a big field and strong pace will help him. If Roulez Cool runs to his mark of 148 in the Foxhunters’ he will win but his two pointing wins this season when he scrambled home have been miles below that figure so don’t be fooled by it. Chesnut Annie put up the best performance I’ve seen from a hunter this season. She is small and needs to lead which is a worry but she is not to be ignored. I’ve no view in the Martin Pipe but think You’re The Top is the one to be on in the Grand Annual. He is a novice that had this third chase recently to qualify for a mark and looks a natural two-miler. Green Belt Elite looked very good last time but has gone up 9lbs for winning a three-runner race.
RH: Takari is my idea of the most likely County Hurdle winner though Oldrik will be well in even if he is a twicer and better right-handed but I felt he was given a bad ride when second in the Imperial Cup as made his ground too quickly. No view on the Foxhunters’ but I quite like Clover Island in the Martin Pipe.
RG: Ruby gave a good mention to Takari and C’est Ca of Mullins’. Kilty Storm is probably best of the Irish in the Foxhunters’, I have no view on the Martin Pipe and like Green Belt Elite in the Grand Annual.
Robert Cooper ran the show which featured Alan King (AK), professional punter Alan Potts (AP) Channel 4’s Richard Hoiles (RH), Sean Graham Bookmakers’ Ronan Graham (RG).
SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE
AK: Get Me Out Of Here would have won even better for a mistake at the last at Newbury and could win in a normal year but it’s not a normal year with Dunguib in the race and I think the favourite will be suited by a faster pace and better ground as he is by Presenting.
AP: Dunguib is not a good thing because of his age, jockey and his jumping. I thought he was on the wrong lead most of the way at Leopardstown and think he would prefer going right handed but that part of his game improved as the race went on. He is not value but I can not get away from the fact he looks a machine so I can not lay him either. I think he could touch 11/8 on Betfair as the main layers on there are British.
RH: This is definitely not a soft renewal that Dunguib has to deal with and the key is what price he will be as to whether we back him. I like the fact Get Me Out Of Here won a big handicap and I also know how bullish the yard are about him so would go for him on value grounds.
RG: Seemingly everyone in Ireland wants to be on Dunguib but everyone in Britain wants to be against him. I’ve not seen his like before and he beat 14 subsequent winners in last year’s Festival Bumper. I can’t see serious money for anything beyond the big two.
ARKLE TROPHY
AK: I’ve never liked Sizing Europe as I don’t think he likes a battle. I just worry Captain Cee Bee lands too steeply and if he does that at pace two out he will be upside down. I’m most keen on Riverside Theatre and at a big price I’m Delilah.
AP: I’m very much in the Somersby camp and sometimes you have to go with what you see. If you see one horse in the paddock all Festival make sure it is Somersby. In 40 years of watching racing, very good six-year-olds virtually always beat very good nine-year-olds and he is a strong bet.
RH: Few 9yos of Captain Cee Bee’s class have run in the race and his form lines are working out so well so he is my fancy. Sports Line was mugged last time after getting embroiled in an early fight so feel he is underestimated. Somersby is priced on being such a nice-looking, beautiful-jumping horse than pure form.
RG: The Henry De Bromhead team are bang out of form for Sizing Europe with one placed horse in their last 16 and his An Cathaoir Mor was friendless before running terribly the other day so that worries me but I still like him most. I am against Sports Line who won an egg and spoon race and was beaten next time whilst Osana looks to have fallen out of love with the game. Nicanor is a big price as hates the heavy ground in Ireland but will like this better. If Captain Cee Bee jumps he wins, but I don’t think he will jump.
CHAMPION HURDLE
AK: Medermit is very much in the mix. His preparation has gone great, he loves to be fresh and the ground should be okay for him. I walked it today and it will probably ride quite dead. There is not much at all between many of these.
AP: There are nine horses rated between 161-168 so this is wide open. I fancied Medermit when he was 14/1 but is too short now. If I was laying I would lay the Henderson trio on the old Derby adage that if you think you have three Champion Hurdlers then you probably have none. Solwhit wins races so I would go with him if pressed if I knew he were over his problems and fully fit.
RH: Last year’s race has struggled to work out and I can find holes in all this season’s runners. Two bookmakers have told me there was precious little wrong at all with Solwhit and the rumours could have been for market manipulation. I will tentatively side with Go Native
RG: Jumbo Rio is a massive e/w price at 100/1. Forget last year’s Triumph as he was kicked at the start. I’m not a big Solwhit fan as don’t think his form lines are strong enough.
TUESDAY SHOULDER RACES
AK: The mistake by Bensalem at the cross fence at Newbury has done him a lot of good as he has learned from that. We have schooled him extensively since then in a noseband which has made him concentrate more. If he is not better than a 143 horse I will be very surprised and think you will see a totally different horse on Tuesday in the William Hill. Ogee is another novice that can go well and will be a decent price. On the cross country I would just say the owners of Halcon Genelardais may go down this route with him next season. In the mares race it will be a hell of a training feat if Quevega wins so I will go with Voler La Vedette.
AP: I’m not having a bet in the William Hill and am embarrassed someone called Alan Potts is even having a runner in the cross country (Sizing Australia). The amount of times I have been congratulated when Sizing Europe has won you wouldn’t believe. Apparently the owner is also fed up getting asked for tips! I would want to lay Quevega and Voler La Vedette if they start at under 2/1. Easter Legend is the best of the bigger priced runners as improved with each run this season, has won at the course and will like dropping back in trip as 3m stretched her last time.
RH: I’ve major concerns over the form of the Pipe yard for The Package and thinking about place-laying lots of his Festival runners. I would go for Character Building in the William Hill Chase as has a solid Festival record and is lightly raced this season. I walked the cross country course and they haven’t watered it so it will be the fastest ground of the meeting so don’t back a soft ground horse. Find out which horse McManus has backed! I’ve heard Quevega has had a problem before the Mares Hurdle as she is a massive drifter. The ground might not be ideal for J’Y Vole and the value has gone with Voler La Vedette so I suggest Sway who is highly rated but I also know is very highly strung and the intention is to switch her off and ride here right in rear. She could be worth taking a chance on.
RG: I think Nenuphar Collonges is good e/w value at 20/1 in the William Hill Chase as he is a Festival winner and was only beaten a length in this race last season. If Sizing Europe runs well in the Arkle then Sizing Australia could be one of the e/w bets of the meeting in the cross country. At our preview night in Belfast on Monday Colm Murphy was ultra sweet on Voler La Vedette. I have heard that some of J P McManus’ connections have backed Sway.
NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE
AK: The step up in trip and better ground will suit Manyriverstocross but this is a seriously strong renewal. He will run well and is a bit of value at 25s. Finians Rainbow may have looked very good at Ascot but he beat trees. I had the third in that race.
AP: An Irish benefit this year and I reckon Quel Esprit will give Mullins and Walsh their third winner of this race on the spin.
RH: Rite Of Passage has won two weak races and I don’t like Weld’s Festival record. Therefore I prefer Quel Esprit whose form was franked by the horse that beat him last time. Four horses were covered by a blanket in the Challow and they all can not to be top class so I would be against Finians Rainbow who didn’t win the race anyway.
RG: Rite Of Passage travels so well I think he is value at 7/2. Quel Esprit is not a horse I would be rushing to back as was long odds-on and beaten on merit last time.
RSA CHASE
AK: I’ve no doubt that Long Run is the best horse but whether he will win is an entirely different matter. I’m told he works spectacularly but that lights him up so Sam will have a job settling him. The mistake at Sandown probably did Punchestowns a lot of good as will have learned from that. He has had lameness problems all his life so I read little into that scare last weekend. I’m sure Long Run is the best horse but I would back Punchestowns given a choice. I was disappointed with Diamond Harry at Newbury.
AP: Punchestowns is the best hurdler to run in this race and I think he will win with a degree of comfort. Long Run is a phenomenal performer but all his form is on flat tracks and he won’t get away with brushing through the top of fences at Cheltenham.
RH: Everyone says it is a cheap shot to have a go at Sam Waley-Cohen but we are still all doing it. Long Run makes mistakes so being amateur-ridden worries me. The scare surrounding Punchestowns has made him an excellent price. The condition dropped off Diamond Harry at Newbury and he didn’t look as well as he did at Haydock. He has been badly campaigned this season with the late switch to chases for a horse that does not hold his condition well.
RG: If Solwhit ran well in the Champion Hurdle do not forget Weapon’s Amnesty. The word is that J P is on Long Run and at our preview evening Mick Fitz didn’t even mention Punchestowns, he could only talk about Long Run. If he ran I would tentatively go with The Nightingale.
QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
AK: Master Minded is the banker of the week. He should be 1/3 not 4/5. His performance at Newbury was right back to his best of two years ago and 4/5 is a massive price.
AP: Master Minded, no question. End of. It’s incredible what he has done so far and is only a 7yo. His Newbury performance told me he is 100% right and I will be very surprised if he does not win.
RH: I’ve not been a Master Minded fan ever since Nicholls told me about his tying up (cramping) problem that he keeps touching on but has never really explained. I don’t often back shortish prices e/w but Kalahari King appeals. They have cocked up Big Zeb’s season by running him in the Tingle Creek and I think he could be the 2m version of Beef or Salmon over here. If I was to lay Master Minded it would be for a place as his problems are physical.
RG: Of the four shorties this week Master Minded is the one bookies will want to get and I reckon he could be about Evens. Kalahari King is the e/w bet of the meeting.
WEDNESDAY SHOULDER RACES
AK: I run Pennek in the four-miler and Josh Moore rides. He is an out-and-out stayer who will be staying on but lacks a bit of class for it. In the Coral Cup we run three. Lake Legend has deliberately not run since Christmas where he went up 10lbs so we didn’t want him going up again and Wayne Hutchinson keeps the ride. Sir Harry Ormesher is very talented and was impressive at Doncaster and good ground is key for him but he is very hot headed and could wipe someone out on the way to the start so see what he does in the prelims first. We run Silk Hall as well and Quantitativeeasing worries me most. Causeway King has been our Fred Winter horse all season, so much so, we didn’t enter him for the Triumph but wish we had now. But he is now on 132 which is high enough. It’s a close call if Gilded Age gets in but I would be very keen on him if he did. Shot From The Hip is the best bumper horse I’ve seen this season but I would be very worried about the jockey. I thought it was interesting Ruby rides Al Ferof for Paul and not the Mullins horses.
AP: My banker of the meeting is Sanctuaire in the Fred Winter who could be backed into around 3/1 so take the 6s now. In think 127 is incredibly lenient, he fits the key stats for the race and will be too good for handicaps after this. Mobaasher is the horse I like in the NH Chase as he loves decent ground and has run three solid races at the Festival before. He could be too classy for these. No view in the Coral Cup as Shadow Dancer won’t get in and I think he could be the best handicapped horse in the country. I’m expecting him to win a small race so he can get in one of the handicaps at Aintree. I’ve no interest in the bumper.
RH: Askmeroe is interesting for Tony Martin in the four-miler and James De Vassy and Lake Legend are my two against the field in the Coral Cup with a preference for the former. I have a strong view that Sanctuaire is the one for the Fred Winter as feel French form is undervalued by the handicapper and he is one of the best bets of the week. Frawley and Drumbaloo would be my two against the field in the bumper with slight preference for Frawley.
RG: Saddlers Storm won today for Tony Martin and is a major player for the NH Chase if turning out again on wednesday and Becauseicouldntsee could be anything for Noel Glynn as he was very impressive last time. Beshabar needs cut for the Coral Cup so I go with Wishfull Thinking with the Hobbs yard bang in form after their Imperial Cup 1-2. Sanctuaire has the right profile for the Fred Winter and the Irish don’t have much for this. The 6s won’t last long. In the bumper I like Frawley as John Kiely is a top trainer of bumper horses. Shot From The Hip was impressive but has to overcome the fact he has a less experienced amateur on board.
RYANAIR CHASE
AK: Voy Por Ustedes is very good value indeed at 16/1 and he wears blinkers. He fairly scooted away from his work rival in them last week and I think he if takes to them in a race he will outclass these. He seems right back to his best. Barbers Shop is okay bullying lesser lights and won’t finish in the first three.
AP: I’m a big Poquelin fan who looks in the same mould as Taranis who won this race. This is run on the New Course which he won the Boylesports on and I think Tranquil Sea will be much better suited to the Old Course on which he won the Paddy Power. Barbers Shop could mince his way into third.
RH: My biggest ante-post position is on Barbers Shop and I make him my banker of the Festival. I’m convinced he doesn’t stay 3m so how can you expect him to finish his races properly over that trip? I’ve more concerns about Poquelin’s head than I do Barbers Shop.
RG: One of the big three will win it with Scotsirish the best e/w shot. He will be staying on well and jumps well.
WORLD HURDLE
AK: I think Katchit is very good value. He has not worked so well in a long time and on goodish ground he has all his old bounce back and now needs 3m. Karabak has run well both times this season and will also like good ground. Hopefully Big Buck’s will not come out of his flat spot one day.
AP: I was big on Big Buck’s last year at 6/1 but he is 4/6 this time so I won’t be playing. I was keen on Karabak without the favourite but his trainer seems to prefer Katchit.
RH: If you fancy Big Buck’s then it must be in-running as he has touched odds-against both starts this season. I am a Tidal Bay e/w man as that seems the logical approach. Big Buck’s could be vulnerable to a horse of his similar type which Tidal Bay is in that he is quirky, had been chasing and looks like he will be held up. He also has an excellent Festival record despite a most unbecoming head carriage.
RG: Big Buck’s could lengthen to around 4/6 on course. It’s Karabak e/w for me.
THURSDAY SHOULDER RACES
AK: In the Jewson we have Awesome George who won well the other day and has a penalty. He will run well but it’s a very competitive race. I have Trenchant and Chamirey in the Pertemps Final and the latter is more interesting as Trenchant probably had his day winning the National Spirit and is too high in the handicap to win in my opinion. Chamirey will support blinkers for the first time and is a thorough stayer. Green Belt Elite is interesting for the Plate if he runs. (significantly he didn’t mention Tarotino at all which I read into that as a positive rather than a negative).
AP: No bet in the Jewson but I’m surprised The Hollinwell is as short as he is as he looks like a four-mile prospect in the making. Alfie Sherrin is 5lbs well in for the Pertemps Final and his last win is working out spectacularly well. He is the most likely winner but I won’t be backing him at the price. Ainama is interesting even if McCoy rides another J P horse. How can I put it kindly about Ainama’s two runs this season? I will be switching off the computer after the World Hurdle so am not tempted to bet in the Plate or Kim Muir.
RH: The Hollinwell has had a very similar preparation to L’Antartique who won the Jewson for the same yard. If the Pipe horses are running okay I like Buena Vista e/w in the Pertemps Final as he has run well at each of the last five Festivals. I fluked the 33/1 winner of the Plate last year by just going through the trends so tried it again this year and came up with Nomecheki though I can see Private Be making the frame. I really like Shillingstone in the Kim Muir but note his regular amateur is not booked to ride and I rather wish he was not that I have anything against Mark Walford.
RG: China Rock has been running well in pattern races and that is a good trend for the Jewson. Smoking Aces and Prince Erik have good chances for Ireland in the Pertemps Final. I am looking forward to the Plate as the last ten winners have all been at double figure prices! I’moncloudnine interests me most in the Kim Muir.
TRIUMPH HURDLE
AK: We might run Gilded Age if he is balloted out of the Fred Winter. Westlin’ Winds’ form with Mille Chief is very good as he was attempting to give us 10lbs so he would be my fancy.
AP: The three best juveniles in GB don’t even run in Escort Men, Royal Mix and Me Voici so the Irish can dominate with Alaivan looking their best. Very impressive last time and his jumping was slick. He has a similar to profile to Celestial Halo who won this race two years ago and he is the best bet on the final day.
RH: I can forgive Alaivan one bad run when he got buzzed up and they tried different tactics on him. I see Pittoni is another Charles Byrnes horse to have recovered to run at the Festival despite being “clinically abnormal”. In future when he says one of his is an unlikely runner, watch it drift and then back it.
RG: You say the Brits are no good and I’m not sure the Irish are much better. Carlito Brigante has done nothing wrong and he beat Alaivan in no uncertain terms. Rumours last week were that Secant Star wasn’t going to run but he has looked visually the most impressive of the Irish.
ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE
AK: The Betchworth Kid has the ability and I think he will get the trip but have a slight question mark over his attitude and just hope he is man enough. I’ve been tremendously impressed with Tell Massini. Silver Kate is a relentless galloper that could outrun her odds.
AP: Tell Massini and Restless Harry could set it up for a hold up horse so what is Ruby Walsh going to ride? Probably Enterprise Park.
RH: If the rains arrive then Tell Massini would be difficult to beat but if not I like Enterprise Park.
RG: Fionnegas has been well backed this week. I hear if the rain does not come Enterprise Park may be pulled out leaving Fionnegas as the Mullins runner but Shinrock Paddy is the best of the Irish for me.
GOLD CUP
AK: It’s dangerous to write off Denman again but he is now a Jekyll and Hyde horse in that he is very good or bloody awful and no in-between. My lads told me that at Newbury he didn’t want to do anything that day from leaving his box to entering the paddock. The only possible danger to Kauto Star is Cooldine. It will be terrible if Tricky Trickster wins. How the hell can a horse rated 149 win the Gold Cup?
AP: Denman has fallen in two of his last three starts and launched himself into the fence on both occasions. He needs glasses. If he jumps well I think he will run okay but Kauto Star is a class apart. The best bet is without the big two where I fancy Tricky Trickster to stay on strongly and run through beaten horses.
RH: Denman got into a beautiful rhythm when he won the Gold Cup but when he is flat to the boards he is a hit or miss job at his fences. I’ve been with Cooldine all season and am happy enough with that.
RG: We’ve backed Imperial Commander at 12/1 and Kauto Star at 4/5 as Denman is only going to drift. No one wants to back him.
FRIDAY SHOULDER RACES
AK: Nicholls won the County Hurdle with a novice last season and I know since Taunton last year they have had this race in mind for another novice in Tito Bustillo. I hear Baby Run has improved for his Warwick win and he won at Punchestown last season so maybe him for the Foxhunters’. We run Saticon in the Fred Winter and Balzaccio if he gets in but Peveril could be a lot better than a handicapper for Henderson. We run Oh Crick in the Grand Annual who won it last year off 10st but he has 11st 8lbs this time. There will be horses too well handicapped for him. Green Belt Flyer for me if he runs.
AP: Bellvano strikes me as an ideal County Hurdle horse as he made his ground so quickly at Newbury last time from rear and a big field and strong pace will help him. If Roulez Cool runs to his mark of 148 in the Foxhunters’ he will win but his two pointing wins this season when he scrambled home have been miles below that figure so don’t be fooled by it. Chesnut Annie put up the best performance I’ve seen from a hunter this season. She is small and needs to lead which is a worry but she is not to be ignored. I’ve no view in the Martin Pipe but think You’re The Top is the one to be on in the Grand Annual. He is a novice that had this third chase recently to qualify for a mark and looks a natural two-miler. Green Belt Elite looked very good last time but has gone up 9lbs for winning a three-runner race.
RH: Takari is my idea of the most likely County Hurdle winner though Oldrik will be well in even if he is a twicer and better right-handed but I felt he was given a bad ride when second in the Imperial Cup as made his ground too quickly. No view on the Foxhunters’ but I quite like Clover Island in the Martin Pipe.
RG: Ruby gave a good mention to Takari and C’est Ca of Mullins’. Kilty Storm is probably best of the Irish in the Foxhunters’, I have no view on the Martin Pipe and like Green Belt Elite in the Grand Annual.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I cannot fathom why King prefers Katchit to Karabak. Obviously the former has been working better but Karabak is light year's in front from a form perspective.