Cheltenham Festival: Preview Nights

Must admit, I'd been coming round to the idea of Alaivan. I've always liked classy Flat horses for the Triumph. MF's comment is a bit off-putting.
 
I would take any negative comments Mick Fitz makes about any of your fancies as a positive.
 
was anyone at galway(salthill) last night i hear barney curley was meant to be making an appearance!!!!!!!
 
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Was at Carlisle racecourse's preview night last night. Will post something on it later. Ferdy Murphy said he thinks Denman's gone.
 
No problem, granger (other than the site not allowing me to upload the full document in a oner, hence my splitting it into four days).
 
I popped over to Westport last night as it was in aid of a good charity.........
　
Preview Night Westport 9th March
David Duggan DD
Mick Fitzgerald MF
Andrew McNamara AM
Paul Ryan (Paddy Power) PR
Eddie Harty (EH)
　
Hosted very well by Jonathan Mullin from the RPost in aid of the Mayo/Roscommon Hospice
　
Supreme Novice:
DD - Dunguib won't be beaten, the only negative is the way he gets wound up before a race
MF - Bellvano will run in a handicap. Dunguib the choice but the jockey better not end up caught out too wide
PR - Paddy power are either very brave or very foolish with their Dunguib concession - suspects they are very stupid
Dunguib is a superstar, the next Golden Cygnet and the jockey is not an issue
AM - Dunguib is an anxious horse but survived last year well enough, and will win despite his jumping. GMOH will be 2nd
EH - Cheltenham is actually quite a tight track and Captain Cee Bee was off the bridal early enough as they keep turning - this might
also catch out Dunguib. suggests backing SMOH without Dunguib as Pipe was gobsmacked he beat his horse so easily last time

Neptune:
DD - Rite Of Passage required some soft ground - changed his legs a lot at Punchestown and is opposable. Didn't really think he handled
Cheltenham that well last year either.
MF - Quantativeeasing will probably run in a handicap, likely the Coral Cup. Finians Rainbow just got out stayed in the ground last time
AM - Rite Of Passage has been very impressive but has beaten nothing so far. Peddlers Cross should be in the 2m contest but is dodging dunguib.
Quel Esprits form doesn't really stack up. Could be a race for an outsider.
PR - Rite Of Passage deserves to be favourite. Nicky Henderson has a poor record in this ("Not as poor as Dermot Weld has!!!" retorted MF :0 )
Quel Esprit has been very well backed recently. The Challow Hurdle is a poor trial (one of his 1 million stats on the night)
EH - Quel Esprit is the selection. Rite Of Passage had nothing left in the tank last time and you need to have something left to work on. Willie
Mullins knows what it takes to win this race

Triumph:
DD - Quite like Pittoni and Carlito Brigante but can see a very strange result in this race
MF - Westlin Winds is a decent price and should be shorter. Soldatino a "fractious" horse and the Triumph was a bit of an after thought. Sweet on Advisor
and reckoned Ruby may ride it
AM - We will ride a different race on Alivan this time - learned a lot about the horse when beaten behind Carlito Brigante. Took 15 schooling sessions to teach Alivan
how to jump a hurdle - not straightforward but getting better
EH - A fan of Carlito Brigante but its a race to go for a beer really
PR - Better class horses starting to hold sway with the new format. Gordon Elliot pretty sweet on his horse. Soldatino has been well backed. probably would go for Secant Star EW

Champion:
DD - Thinks Celestial Halo is forgotten about and can forgive his last run easily enough. Loves it when Paul Nichols is quiet about the chances of one of his.
AM- Solwith a very solid horse. Jumbo Rio a brilliant EW bet at about 80/1 although may struggle to win it. Go Native is a weak finisher and might get run out of it. Paul nichols
is so quite about Celestial Halo beause he has no idea where it all went wrong. A wide open race.
EH - Won in the Dark worth a few bob EW at a big price. Not a fan of Starluck and can't see it placed. Stick with Punjabi - Cheltenham form is invaluable. Suspects that Binocular
has been going through a "growing spurt" and will be back to himself after it.
MF - Very confident Barry Geraghty will ride Punjabi. McCoy is schooling Binocular on Wednesday. Horse has grown quite a bit and could be a nice bet for Aintree.
PR - Manic changes in the betting with the Solwith news. Supreme winners don't win the Champion and worth looking at the horses at bigger prices

Stayers:
AM - Powerstation might run into a place but Big Bucks can't be beaten - he is a bit deceptive as he holds onto a bit for himself.
EH - Big Bucks is the first horse beaten and the last horse beaten. Looking forward to seeing War Of Attrition but may not have the toe to win it.
DD - Karaback might give the favourite the most to do. Strongest fav of the week. Cousin Vinny worth a small bet EW
MF - Nothing will bridge the gap to Big Bucks, Sentry Duty EW if the race is run to suit.
PR - We won't get the fav beaten, worth playing in the without market

Arkle:
AM - Osana not up to the standard but will like the better ground. Captain Cee Bee would have beaten Sizing Europe at Leopardstown.
MF - Somersby is a superstar in the making, a banker to be placed. AP thinks it is the main danger to Captain Cee Bee. Woolcombe Folly a very good jumper and worth an EW bet
CBB jumps fine and the one to beat.
DD - Somersby had no chance. Riverside Theatre is at the right address but Sizing Europe is the selection - a classy horse, better that these.
EH - CBB jumps very well, almost faultlessly so far - a really good horse (mentioned him in the same breath as Kauto Star and Captain Christy). Commented on how a good horse
can sense the jockey and thinks it "must land running", and actually made a worse mistake at Naas than at Leopardstown. "You can't win an Arkle ballooning a fence"
PR - Happy to lay Sizing Europe, CBB would have beaten him without a question. A worthy fav but not a great race for fav backers in recent years. Good money for SportsLine
Rang Emma Lavell at this stage. Really impressed by Oscan Whisky, the Paul Nicholls bumper horse is very good. Nap is Peveril in the Conditional Jockeys race

RSA:
MF - Punchestowns will not want for stamina. Nicky thinks these are the best 2 chasers he has had - he could easily have the 1-2. Keith Revely could not believe what happened Tazbar
against Long Run. Wouldn't be drawn on which was better but the impression was that it was Long Run. "Any horse can win over any trip if he is good enough". Punchestowns is 100%
DD - Reservations about Long Run - not sure he will stay. Actually, not sure Punchestowns will either, would be a certainty in the Ryanair. Weapons Amnesty a solid stayer and a good EW bet
EH - Long Run a potential Gold Cup winner. Not that impressed by Diamond Harry so far.
AM - DD is mad to think Punchestowns doesn't stay. Wary about Long Runs pilot as the horse does not look an easy ride. Weapons Amnesty is not a great jumper of a fence.
PR - Punchestowns now an "All Ireland" price

Champion Chase:
AM - Master Minded may not take his racing the best, but if anywhere near his best he can't be beaten. Might not be the best in an all out battle though. Forpadytheplasterer can be placed
but is in the wrong race.
EH - Can't have Twist Magic as a betting prospect (would love to have him in the yard though). Big Zeb a "hell of a horse" but maybe not the best suited to Cheltenham
MF - Big Master Minded fan - not half the horse though if he has to make his own running. Kalahari King was unlucky last year and may pick up the pieces behind Master Minded. Fav much
better value than Dunguib at the prices.
DD - No doubt Master Minded will win. Forpadytheplasterer a real spring horse and may chase him home.
PR - Master Minded will go to Evens, good support for Kalahari King and Forpadytheplasterer at the moment.

Bumper:
EH - Vibes from Weld's are very good - he is one of Irelands best trainers but his Cheltenham record is poor. "The stable is so well organized there is either good news or no news"
MF - Robbie McNamara can't do the weight on Hidden Universe. A big Drumbaloo fan.
DD - Day Of a Lifetime the selection
AM - Dermot Weld told Robbie he would be riding the Cheltenham Bumper winner next week. Drumbaloo's form a bit shakey.Shoot from the Hip was impressive but he ran away with JP Magnier last time and there could be a danger that could happen again. Have to go with Elegant Concorde with the vibes from Weld's
PR - Very open betting so far. Day Of a Lifetime Willie's best but they are not his most impressive crop of bumper horses, Lambe quietly confident in Drumbaloo

Gold Cup:
MF - Kauto Star can't be beaten. A fit Denman doesn't beat a fit Kauto Star
DD - Denman a marvellous racehorse and has had some well documented issues. About 7lbs shy of Kauto Star though - an exceptional animal. Cooldine may be the biggest danger though -
you couldn't kick him out of the top 3
PR - All about Kauto Star
AM - Cooldine won a poor Sun Alliance. Kauto Star is a cert. Denman has always had his quirks, they are nothing new.
EH - The only horse I would swap CBB for is Kauto Star - unbeatable and will doddle up. Denman is a bully and will back away like all bullys when it is put up to them.

€100 Charity Bets
EH - Big Bucks
AM - Kauto Star
MF - Tell Massini
DD - Meath All Star (Conditional Jockeys race)
　
 
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The really interesting one was staged last week at the Old Bank Of England (Fleet Street). No invited audience and a very select panel. :thumbsup:
 
All i know about that one was there were two fools present who will be easily parted from their money at Cheltenham! :D

In summary ... :confused:
 
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...ye of little faith!!! I'd had rather been there than listen to the best part of these other assemblies.
 
Definitely the most insightful so far imo. Cheers qzy.

Andrew Mac is a man i'd listen to. Captain Cee Bee wouldn't be beaten in the Supreme two years ago according to him. Top man. I love listening to Dave Duggan as well, but for the opposite reasons. He disagreed with a few of my selections which has put my mind at ease.

DD - Reservations about Long Run - not sure he will stay. Actually, not sure Punchestowns will either, would be a certainty in the Ryanair.

Pure gold that lad!!!
 
Stats favour experience – 3 or more races. Long Run disadvantaged – a terrible price. Punch’s lameness is an ongoing thing.
Click to expand...

Is this guy (Paul Jones from the Carlisle preview) for real? Long Run has more experience over fences than any of 'em.
 
Euronymous said:
Is this guy (Paul Jones from the Carlisle preview) for real? Long Run has more experience over fences than any of 'em.
Click to expand...

Maybe partly my fault, euro. I was jotting down what I was hearing. The remark was within the context of the RSA and may not have been directly linked to experience of fences.

What PJ says in his book is: Can his palpable class offset the many negatives which include his age*, amateur jockey**, jumping on an undulating track and the poor record of the Feltham winner*** [in this race]?

The main paragraph in the book makes no reference to any lack of jumping experience and mentions his chasing record in France. He's a huge admirer of the horse.

* - he concedes the horse is "incredibly mature for his age"
** - SWC can't claim his allowance.
*** - all 16 Feltham winners to run in this race have been beaten

I think he means if you put all the niggling little things together they might all add up.
 
The Feltham angle is a red herring. He doesn't fit the profile of a normal winner of that race. He's surely the best winner of that contest since Gloria Victis - who would have won his RSA if he'd been aimed at it:(
 
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