Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015

Silvinaco Conti looks the same horse this season as last, to me - pretty-much identical, in fact. I don't think he's improved an ounce....but then again, he might not need to have improved any, to go close again in the Gold Cup

Edge, Harchibald was a mutt!! :ninja:

:lol:
 
I can't see that youtube item (something to do with Chrome, I think) although it looks suspiciously like the person talking might have some kind of vested interest in promoting the product.

I think Silviniaco Conti could produce his best non-Cheltenham form on the big day and still not win, given what might be coming through or if Bobs Worth is, as the betting at Leopardstown suggested, back to his very best.
 
Grasshopper said:
The Giant Bolster has place-claims at best - and that is etxtending him every courtesy.

I'm all over Holywell ante-post, but I'm coming round to thinking that Lord Windermere is the one to have onside on the day. He probably has the best track form of any of the runners, and his profile coming into the race (i.e. wholly uninspiring) is very similar to last year. The 14/1 seems to be a fair-enough price to me.
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The Giant Bolster is the type who is so consistent round Chelters should others wilt of coarse he could win a Gold Cup.... I'd rather have place claims than back something like Dynasty who could win a walk over in the gold cup.

The shyte is running down you leg Grassy because Jonjo pulled your horse out at the weekend..........panic not young son
 
Agree he is consistent at Cheltenham, Tanlic.....consistently short of what is required to win there. ;)

I'm very relaxed about the Holywell bet, and certainly have not written it off.......but I may have a saver on LW anyway.
 
Anyone got a going/time adjustment for soft and good/soft in the KG? 6 seconds feels about right and I'm with Grassy about SC's level of form this season. Even though you can only beat what is there, if they're off form or don't stay the perception can be misleading.

SC is the best on form but I can't have a two time failure who hasn't won on an undulating track for 4 years as any value at 3/1. Even if he starts shorter on the day, there will surely be a morning offer that will be around there.
 
Anyone fancying SC to win the GC has King Georgeitis imo. Its not like the races are even similar..quite different depending on how adaptable the winner is.. each year we see people swayed by whatever wins it being the GC horse...you have to look at the individual horse's form for the answer

Yes you can win both..but its as plain as the nose on your face that SC is not a horse that likes the ups and downs of racecourses.

I think he is superb..and its possible he has improved..but he will still lose at Cheltenham imo. Its like Denman who hated tightish bends on flat tracks like Kempton & Aintree..it wouldn't matter what performance he put in beforehand..if he was slung onto that type of track race after a top effort..he hated it.

In the case of SC...judging him on what he does on flat tracks and expecting same at Cheltenham is just ignoring the obvious. The evidence is in his form...years of it..he won't win at an up and down dale course at that level of competition..based on straightforward reading of his form.

the worse double at Cheltenham will be SC+TNO.
 
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Where is the proof that Silviniaco Conti doesn't like undulating tracks ?

If - and at the risk of continously repeating myself - Nicholls' explantion re the ulcers last year are accurate then since he's been faced with 3 miles plus he's done nothing to suggest that.

One "bad" run when he'd seemed to have hacked round prior to faltering, as he did the previous year before falling, doesn't offer concrete evidence at all.

People are often prepared to forgive a horse one bad run but in the case of SC it appears he's not even being offered that courtsey over 200 yards.

I hear what you are saying re King George winners EC but often that is due to the extra stamina demands of the Gold Cup and SC has nearly always looked like he's suited by a test of stamina.
 
I thought he had won at Chepstow?

how many "undulating tracks" could he feasibly be running on anyway?

I suspect he is better in flatter tracks but comparisons with denman are all wrong IMO. I think it's far more significant if a horse has a strong left/right bias. They just don't properly travel at all whereas sc has certainly moved well round CheltenhamCheltenham
 
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He has run 5 times on undulating courses and his one win was the first time he ran at Chepstow. Compare that to his record on non undulating tracks. Its interesting also that he nevers runs at undulating tracks anymore...apart form obviously the big one. That is a tell in itself.

There is no proof of anything really Wilsonl..but with a horse's form we have to form a picture in our minds of the profile that horse whips up..the image i have of SC is of a horse that isn't at his best on up and down dales..i think Nichols is of the same opinion when you look at how often he campaigns him at such tracks.

Yes a lot of suitable races are on flat tracks..so you are limited in that way...but there are races he could go for at such as at Punchestown which he hasn't done..because its just not his track.
 
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clivex said:
I thought he had won at Chepstow?

how many "undulating tracks" could he feasibly be running on anyway?

I suspect he is better in flatter tracks but comparisons with denman are all wrong IMO. I think it's far more significant if a horse has a strong left/right bias. They just don't properly travel at all whereas sc has certainly moved well round CheltenhamCheltenham
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he didn't move so well after the last though did he last March?

Denman wasn't right/left bias though imo..he didn't like speed tracks basically..it didn't play to his strengths..he didn't relish Aintree or kempton..opposite way tracks but flat in nature with tightish bends

oddly for a horse we view as a stayer..you'd think SC would relish the GC test...maybe he does..i just cannot see it

fair play..if you think he can show his best come March..then there is only one bet with his solid on paper form..i just don't think he will show best and will look elsewhere.

I sometimes think that punters want a horse to have run a 100 times before making a decision about favour/unfavoured..we can't do that..we have limited form ..10/20 runs...so you have to take a view on a horse by looking at the clues from what we do have..if a punter cannot make a distinction then how on earth will he ever make a bet...surely if nothing affects a horse..then you have very little to differentiate when 5 horses line up and poundwise there is only 3 or 4 between them

I personally do believe that certain horses are favoured by certain terrain..right/left etc...others will ignore it and say its irrelevant.
 
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That's fair enough EC and Nicholls was indeed quoted as saying he suits a flat track after he won the Mildmay Novices' but his campaigning is highly similar to that of Kauto Star, i.e. Pipe opener, Betfair, KG, Gold Cup, Aintree, which all bar Cheltenham happen to be on flat tracks.

Personally I think he shocked Nicholls in the 2013 Gold Cup with just how well he handled the track and it was the same last year until they'd jumped the final fence.

Only time will tell but fingers crossed at least we should finally find out undeniably. And if he gets beaten I'll be the first to hold my hands up.
 
If ulcers were SC's problem last year, then fixing them has brought about maybe a couple of lbs improvement this season, at best......which makes little real, material difference to his chance in this Gold Cup, as compared to last season's. He is basically the same horse this season compared to last, in terms of the level of form he's capable of reaching - even if he is jumping and travelling better in his races. *

*I don't personally subscribe to this notion.
 
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like i say Wilsonl..we all have a decision process...to be fair..mine is to make my mind up as soon as possible about a horse..sometimes i'm right..sometimes not

your approach is more forgiving in that you will give him another chance

sometimes though when you give another chance..afterwards you think..well its not sure to be the course that cost him the race..so i'll give him another go....then by the time you make your mind up eventually ...horse is retired:)

i do like to see how other people view things like this..it might make me question my possibly hasty judgements..but i'm set on SC just not really relishing that test..and the GC is a tough test
 
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Grasshopper said:
If ulcers were SC's problem last year, then fixing them has brought about maybe a couple of lbs improvement this season, at best......which makes little real, material difference to his chance in this Gold Cup, as compared to last season's. He is basically the same horse this season compared to last, in terms of the level of form he's capable of reaching - even if he is jumping and travelling better in his races. *

*I don't personally subscribe to this notion.
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it also won't have changed the fact that he may not like the ground falling away from him or coming up to meet him

look how Mo Farah ran in that marathon for instance when he was completely at sea on the downhill section..it cost him the race..but he nearly pulled it out of the fire..but the downhill bit he just wasn't keen or as effective on..didn't stop him looking good at the end..but he still lost.

Doesn't mean a horse can't win on that type of track..its not black and white..but in a race like the GC its having the whole thing in your favour that can mean win or lose. Whereas he rarely looks like losing at Kempton..Haydock etc..doesn't just scrape home either.
 
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I find he idea that he's jumping no better than before ...odd. He's always been decent but frankly it's impossible to believe he's jumped better or as well as he did at Kempton. It was near perfect
 
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The KG win was like someone programmed a horse to put in the perfect 3 miles..flawless. He gets into a rythmn that i don't think he does as well when not on a level surface

just my view..probably nonsense
 
clivex said:
I find he idea that he's jumping no better than before ...odd. He's always been decent but frankly it's impossible to believe he's jumped better or as well as he did at Kempton. It was near perfect
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Precisely because he's always been decent.
 
SC's always jumped well; just not very quickly, and it's the addition of the blinds and more forceful tactics that's responsible for any perceived improvement this season. The only other time he's achieved a similar RPR was when Cue Card set a strong pace for him in last season's KG.
This season's Gold Cup already looks likely to be run at sterner pace than last and = in that case - he won't need the forcing tactics. Doubt he'll have any problem with the Cheltenham hill, either - for reasons widely discussed previously.
 
I'm struggling to find any angle on this years race, like many I was all over Conti in the King George, but don't think Cheltenham suits him. Incidentally, does anyone know the last horse that won the Gold Cup on his 3rd attempt after failing in the first two? Usually it's on the first go.
 
tiggers1972 said:
I'm struggling to find any angle on this years race, like many I was all over Conti in the King George, but don't think Cheltenham suits him. Incidentally, does anyone know the last horse that won the Gold Cup on his 3rd attempt after failing in the first two? Usually it's on the first go.
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The Fellow had been beaten in three.
 
Cheers Wilson, I remember backing him and walking down from the stand to avoid the bookmaker queues when The Fellow came to the last in the year Cool Ground beat him!
 
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