Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015

This should interest you Grassy......... From the RP website:

HOLYWELL will not run at Cheltenham on Saturday, with trainer Jonjo O'Neill preferring to wait for better ground with the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup hopeful.
The eight-year-old was entered for both the Grade 2 BetBright Cup Chase and the Grade 2 galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle, but O'Neill said on Friday morning he will not run at the meeting."He wants good ground, it's frustrating but what can you do. We'll wait a bit longer, O'Neill said." The trainer added that there are no firm plans for where Holywell could run next.
 
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I need to do some work on this race as it looks to be a nice opportunity to find something at a price. It's worth looking back at the profile of horse that wins when it has the profile of a poor renewal. Last year it was an improving handicapper, but other times it has been won by horses where there were doubts about getting the trip. Also there have been horses that have been put down as out and out stayers and too slow who have run the winner close.

I'm convinced there's an angle somewhere. Any other thoughts to add before I send myself insane trying to find something at unlikely odds?
 
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Despite my seemingly irrational negativity surrounding the WPM chasers there is actually a lot to like about Djakadam if the Hennessey run can confidently be attributed to him simply needing the run.

There is no doubt he was absolutely tanking in the JLT last year before crashing out and regardless of the opposition yesterday, when he went to the front as they came out of the fog the way he effortlessly put lengths between himself and the second was pretty decent on the eye.

I still think Silviniaco Conti is a class above anything else - regardless of the proposed dislike of the course - and Holywell will probably give him most to do should he get his ground and a blowout under his belt before then. But I've long been of the opinion that the rest are a poor bunch, even allowing for the improved performances of Road To Riches this season, so Djakadam could look good for a place, especially so given that Mullins appears to have uncharacteristically nominated the race.

The proximity of My Murphy back in second would at this stage however prevent me from nominating him as win material.
 
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Is this still the Gold Cup we're talking about, Maruco? Lord Windermere an improving handicapper?

In the last 20 years only Synchronised and Cool Dawn were not on the radar at this stage of the season.

Did last year look like a poor renewal at this stage?
 
Yes, the Gold cup.

In my view yes. Some would argue against, and that Silviniaco Conti and Bob's Worth would be held up as the reason. I was not (and I'm still not), convinced SC is the real deal. Bobs Worth was probably a worthy favourite in what looked a poor contest beforehand, but don't forget he's run like a pig at Haydock, and although he won the Lexus at Christmas it didn't have a solid look about it, and he was unsighted again until the Festival. Admittedly I backed him, but really on the basis I couldn't find anything to oppose him with.

The big concern with the race as it panned out was the way they finished in a heap, and I'd be looking to oppose last seasons runners unless I can see that any have fundamentally improved.

Of those that fit the improver category Road To Riches is the obvious one. His win at Down Royal (where Cooper picked First Lieutenant), followed up by his Lexus win put him firmly in the picture.

Holywell is well touted (by you and a few others), and I understand why. He's been poor this season, but Jonjo's horses all were and those runs are best ignored, but his still got quite a bit to find and his jumping worries me.

Djakadam has already been discussed, and it's not beyond the realm of possibility that he could be the one in such an open looking year. I can't say I've really taken to him though, although I have to admit I can't really say why. Maybe I'll come round.

Many Clouds must be a contender, but I really want to see how he performs tomorrow before I comment.

The one I'm finding myself drawn to is Sam Winner. He's got that profile of improver, has that all important course form, and if they go quickly his stamina will be important. He fits that Truckers Tavern/Sir Rembrandt/Giant Bolster et al mould of horses that run a place at big prices. He's an each way though and is unlikely to be my main bet on the Lexus line through Road To Riches. He shouldn't he be 33/1 with Road To Riches at 8/1 using that line of form, especially when I believe the extra couple of furlongs will help him more than Road To Riches.
 
Must be pretty soft out there for Jonjo to decide not to run in either race.....can't be selecting anything until tomorrow to see if the ground gets any worse. Sure to be some some funny results if it does and no real guide to the Festival
 
It seems that many people are thinking along the lines of Many Clouds being a potential Gold Cup horse.

I'll therefore do everyone a favour, and remind them that the horse in question is trained by Oliver Sherwood, who is - and I cannot make this clear enough - a complete and utter dollop, who could not train butter to melt in a hot pan.

I beseech you to keep this thought at the forefront of your mind, when making your Gold Cup selection.

That is all.
 
Grasshopper said:
It seems that many people are thinking along the lines of Many Clouds being a potential Gold Cup horse.

I'll therefore do everyone a favour, and remind them that the horse in question is trained by Oliver Sherwood, who is - and I cannot make this clear enough - a complete and utter dollop, who could not train butter to melt in a hot pan.

I beseech you to keep this thought at the forefront of your mind, when making your Gold Cup selection.

That is all.
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Grassy, Why do you have such a downer on our Olly?
I know nothing about the bloke so am intrigued?
 
He hasn't trained a winner at Cheltenham since 2000 according to Oli Bell on RUK..... Not an inspiring stat....
 
He and Paul Webber (who I also despise) colluded to shaft an owner at the Sales years back, and were caught with their hands in the till. I have had no time for either of them ever since.

Both are hopeless when it comes to training, imo. Good horses simply don't go on for them.
 
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Gutted.

Any success for Sherwood is like a turd floating in my punch-bowl. At least he won't be winning the Gold Cup.
 
Grasshopper said:
It seems that many people are thinking along the lines of Many Clouds being a potential Gold Cup horse.

I'll therefore do everyone a favour, and remind them that the horse in question is trained by Oliver Sherwood, who is - and I cannot make this clear enough - a complete and utter dollop, who could not train butter to melt in a hot pan.

I beseech you to keep this thought at the forefront of your mind, when making your Gold Cup selection.

That is all.
Click to expand...

The pan is sizzling.. ;-)
 
Grasshopper said:
Gutted.

Any success for Sherwood is like a turd floating in my punch-bowl. At least he won't be winning the Gold Cup.
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looks to be going that way...this turd could come back to haunt you

not much of a GC trial with the slow pace..messed my bet up with TGB ...but the horse just keeps pulling it out
 
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tbf he has a game horse there. not sure its Gold Cup class but anything could win that this year. (except hollywell)
 
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