Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015

Digger said:
tbf he has a game horse there. not sure its Gold Cup class but anything could win that this year. (except hollywell)
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You're lucky Grassy has gone to bed :lol:

Way too close to the big one for Jonjo to be undoing all the hard work put in. Very similar conditions to Carlisle.

$2,000 Afghan says you change your mind when he runs next.:cool:
 
Thought Many Clouds was very good today but it was a crawl for much of the way . Smad Place did well considering he was so keen but Thornton's absence is a minus for that horse . Dynaste does not stay end of story . TGB ran as well as could be expected but if he wins the GC it is a very bad GC .
 
TGB not beaten that far but no real spark in his form this season yet is a worry.
In essence he does not jump well enough to win but his back GC form is there for all to see.
He has run at every festival since a 4 year old so it would not be the same without him imo.
Still ew value for the optimist that I am !
 
I have no real view on the Gold Cup there is very litle substance to it. PN's has lost out twice already. You wouldn't have a clue if Jonjo ws happy or unhappy with Holywell Smad Place makes little appeal dynasty even less..Many Clouds is hard to knock but there remains the nagging doubt ...is he good enough....TGB ran exactly as predicted by Bridgy but he too has failed twice....that said he may be the only home front horse who is guaranteed to run his race and if things fall his way? At the odds TGB may be the best ap bet in the race and he could well win it
 
The Giant Bolster has place-claims at best - and that is etxtending him every courtesy.

I'm all over Holywell ante-post, but I'm coming round to thinking that Lord Windermere is the one to have onside on the day. He probably has the best track form of any of the runners, and his profile coming into the race (i.e. wholly uninspiring) is very similar to last year. The 14/1 seems to be a fair-enough price to me.
 
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As each week goes past it's pretty damn clear that sc is head and shoulders above these.

I like mc and sure he will run well but I simply do not see a horse in the same class.

The fact that sc hasn't won the race before is a nice bizarre illogical statement that keeps the price onside.
 
Paul Nicholls in yesterday's Racing Post states the ulcer problem SC had last year are gone this year.
Whether those who backed him can say the same thing I am not so sure.
remember See More Business ?
Favourite when carried out yet came back to win the race at 14/1 the year after; PN knows his onions for sure.
 
edgt said:
Paul Nicholls in yesterday's Racing Post states the ulcer problem SC had last year are gone this year.
Whether those who backed him can say the same thing I am not so sure.
remember See More Business ?
Favourite when carried out yet came back to win the race at 14/1 the year after; PN knows his onions for sure.
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Ulcers didn't stop him having the race at his mercy last year. I don't think ulcers prevented him putting the race to bed up the hill. I backed him last year and still cannot believe the result. Will be going for Boston Bob this year.
 
I read the same RP article yesterday and Nicholls came across extremely confidently that the ulcers were causing the horse pain when he was asked to put in maximum effort, hence he started wandering about up the hill. He also reckons that once he realised we wouldn't suffer the same pain again he has started to let himself down again when asked to, which could explain the poor run back followed by two great runs. Although I'd personally be more inclined to put that down to simply the needing the run FTO as per last year.

There's been no other evidence that the horse doesn't stay - quite the opposite in fact - and the constant reference to him twice being beaten in the Gold Cup is arguably unfair because in one of those races he was travelling beautifully before putting in a jump that could befall any second season chaser, especially in a race like the Gold Cup.

What also makes me laugh is people referring back to the course defeat behind Menorah and Cue Card in the International 4 years ago. So a horse who has subsequently excelled over staying trips is beaten 5 lengths into 3rd (when conceding both 4lbs) over an extended 2 miles against the winners of that years supreme novice and festival bumper. and ???

Nicholls is indisputably a top class trainer so if he thinks he's nailed the problem then who am I to argue until there is proof to the contrary ?

Like Clive, I'm loving the opposition to him because it'll surely mean that he will go off even bigger than 3/1 on the day and, while I'm already on, I'll be piling in again at that point.
 
wilsonl said:
in one of those races he was travelling beautifully before putting in a jump that could befall any second season chaser, especially in a race like the Gold Cup.
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I'll need to check the replays but wasn't he travelling just as well at the same stage last time [in the GC]?
 
Yes he was DO but as previously mentioned Nicholls attributed his failure to see it through on the ulcers.

I've no reason to believe he's lying/overly optimistic and he'll know the horse better that anybody (possible exception of work rider etc.) so if he says he has corrected the problem - and the last two wins could pay testament to that - then I will rely on his judgement.

and if he gets beaten then fair dos.
 
the closer we get the more keen I'm getting on Bobby.

He must have covered the final furlong in the Ryanair faster than anything last season (granted he was anchored at the back for most of the race). If he finishes with that kind of speed or close to it in a Gold Cup the leaders will be going that much slower he might catch them.
 
Is he the same horse this year though Euro ?.

Three ultimately disappointing runs so far, albeit he had decent horses behind him in each of those races.
 
Having shot for the Moon on Champagne Fever and lost, I'm left with several bets on Road to Riches at prices down to 20's. Returning home from Cheltenham I sat down and tried to visualise various scenarios in the race. I can't have Silvinaco winning under pressure up the hill. Many Clouds looked very good on Saturday but I can't envisage the early part of the race being at that pace on the day. There is clear potential in RTR in and he could win if showing that, I see him nailed on for at least a place.
Holywell looked smart last March and will be coming on when the pedal is pressed.

I envisage a scrappy but exciting situation, not unlike last year, with RTR and SC both having travelled easy, together in the lead coming to the last, Many Clouds and Holywell just behind them with the former tiring and hard ridden. Behind them is Lord Windermere, having been kept a bit closer to the action than last year.

Were this to be the case I only need to recall Lord Windermere's finishes in the RSA and last year to think he wins again. Whilst it is easy to decry the quality of the contenders this year and last, we've been spoilt in the recent past and these are good horses. Perhaps to the detriment of racegoers during the year several of these horse are trained and campaigned with one objective, to win the Gold Cup. Silvinaco is campaigned in the traditional way and his style does not aid him at Cheltenham, may be the best horse but not the winner of this race.

Given the above I am in the process of backing Lord Windermere for the third year in a row and I share Grassy's opinion on 16/1 being good value. A win for RTR would be the most profitable for me but a win for either would ensure that the Festival would not be a financial calamity.
 
I think Willie knows his best form over fences is all on decent ground in the spring and ultimately he wants the Gold Cup more than anything. He wasn't really put into the race at any stage in the Lexus.
 
I think he deserves extra credit for his Ryanair effort just based on the fact that that was his first chase outing of the season.
 
He had a breathing problem Wilson, hence his head went up under pressure.
One of my heroes so I will not hear a wrong word said about him, regardless of what he cost me (or anyone else)!
P.S. the day he was beaten at Kempton a local lad missed out on 105K or so in a combi bet.
"Why didn't Paul hit him just ONCE ?" he mused.
 
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I couldn't have Boston bob at all in this. We have had one very ordinary horse win last year but doesn't mean it's the start of a trend
 
wilsonl said:
Yes he was DO but as previously mentioned Nicholls attributed his failure to see it through on the ulcers.

I've no reason to believe he's lying/overly optimistic and he'll know the horse better that anybody (possible exception of work rider etc.) so if he says he has corrected the problem - and the last two wins could pay testament to that - then I will rely on his judgement.

and if he gets beaten then fair dos.
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im bound to agree but he also just looks a more complete horse this year and given the trainers record, that's no surprise. I'm sure he's simply improved
 
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