Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015

I personally think if you beat lesser oppo easily..you have to do it in a decent time.

Last year when UDS was doing a similar thing to what Holywell did..he did it in fast times..and even then most on here would not have him as being good enough for the CH. I was always putting him forward as a genuine contender..but that was due to the times allied to the form.

I'm sure Holywell is capable of turning in top form..but the Kelso race isn't putting an actual figure on it for me personally
 
looking from a recent form perspective..

Holywell beat Fentara 25 lengths giving 17lb

Over a similar trip two races before Dolatulo beat Fentara 25 lengths giving 1lb

Dolatulo is rated now rated 142..making Fentara's recent form worth 116

Holywell beat a 116 horse 25+17 = 158

i've not allowed for ease of win..then again RPR don't do they?
 
Hurricane generally had a Grade 1 horse behind him

By the way I don't think it's outlandish to say that AP will ride Holywell and think market is interesting although CL wouldn't mind better ground - it's not as if he's a mudlark. Just think its wishful thinking to expect him to skip it when there's no reason to do so this year and he is Jp's only entry. Mark Walsh will be called in otherwise.

Desert Orchid said:
I wouldn't go that far, EC1.

Holywell's opponents had fairly established ratings so we did have a handle on their level, and where they finished relative to each other was pretty much in line with their ratings. Holywell was entitled to beat them out of sight, which he ultimately did, without having a hard race.

I said last week the time was the issue. It wasn't a fast time but they didn't go fast on the first circuit.

RPRs' conclusion is that his opponents actually ran 10lbs and more below form yet they still saw fit to award Holywell 170, which is higher than the rating I have for him.

On the occasions I question certain Gr 1 form, people keep coming back at me with the old chestnut, "You can only beat what's there." Yawn.

Holywell could only beat what was there. But in beating what was there he got a high rating. When the likes of Hurricane Fly only beats what's there ends up with a moderate rating suddenly you can't rate form like that.

If Carlsberg did cherrypickers they's only have to look here [others, not you] for the raw materials.
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All that was learned from the Kelso race is that Hollywell has 4 legs and he sometimes struggles to get them over fences quickly.
 
EC1 said:
looking from a recent form perspective..

Holywell beat Fentara 25 lengths giving 17lb

Over a similar trip two races before Dolatulo beat Fentara 25 lengths giving 1lb

Dolatulo is rated now rated 142..making Fentara's recent form worth 116

Holywell beat a 116 horse 25+17 = 158

i've not allowed for ease of win..then again RPR don't do they?
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That assumes Fentara ran to the same level in each race. I think we have to be circumspect about taking one collateral line in isolation.

I reckon if we take AP out of the equation and ask:

CL v Holywell at Cheltenham in March on decent ground over 3m 2f, which would you fancy?

For me it would be a no-brainer [Holywell].
 
EC1 said:
Over a similar trip two races before Dolatulo beat Fentara 25 lengths giving 1lb

Dolatulo is rated now rated 142..making Fentara's recent form worth 116

Holywell beat a 116 horse 25+17 = 158
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RPRs for that race:

Dolatulo 148
Fentara 127

Does that mean we can add 11 to Holywell's figure?
 
you can go by any way you want DO..depending on if you trust RPR's

personally..i've no real interest in it tbh..you have clearly backed Holywell at big prices and i could actually show you a video now of the race in 4 weeks time and you still wouldn't change your view so we will just have to guess..same as we do most of the time:)

i wouldn't back Holywell with someone else's money tbh
 
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When a horse wins a race easily there is a good chance those in behind will have accepted the situation, or have cracked, and won't be asked or won't be able to stretch to their limit. My default approach is to award only half points for each length of a wide-margin win, especially in minor races, once the winning distance goes beyond 6 lengths.

There are times when this approach is wrong. For example, with the benefit of hindsight Faugheen's 22L bumper debut win deserves to be taken literally.
 
EC1 said:
you can go by any way you want DO..depending on if you trust RPR's

personally..i've no real interest in it tbh..you have clearly backed Holywell at big prices and i could actually show you a video now of the race in 4 weeks time and you still wouldn't change your view so we will just have to guess..same as we do most of the time:)

i wouldn't back Holywell with someone else's money tbh
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Fair enough, but as I've said more than once before this race isn't all about Holywell for me. I backed it last March when I thought it was under the radar. It isn't any more. I think it has a decent chance but so have a number of others.

Do I think it has a better chance than Carlingford Lough? Absolutely.
 
Grey said:
When a horse wins a race easily there is a good chance those in behind will have accepted the situation, or have cracked, and won't be asked or won't be able to stretch to their limit. My default approach is to award only half points for each length of a wide-margin win, especially in minor races, once the winning distance goes beyond 6 lengths.

There are times when this approach is wrong. For example, with the benefit of hindsight Faugheen's 22L bumper debut win deserves to be taken literally.
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i think its a fair point tbh...a lot of these big distance jobs are down to jockeys easing off..its obvious really but we just take it as literal until someone actually makes the point..wtf would you ride a horse to its full extent when there is an horses arses 10 in front of you and you haven't a hope of catching it
 
EC1 said:
i think its a fair point tbh...a lot of these big distance jobs are down to jockeys easing off..its obvious really but we just take it as literal until someone actually makes the point..wtf would you ride a horse to its full extent when there is an horses arses 10 in front of you and you haven't a hope of catching it
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Except that there was a proper race for second (with nearly £2k difference between 2nd and 3rd) so no easing off there.
 
there may well have been Archie

Holywell just doesn't jump naturally enough to win a GC is my view..in fact if it does win..i would suggest every trainer to start running their novices in it in future as it can't be the race it once was if it can be won with such a horse.
 
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May be so but it has a better completion record at Cheltenham than Silviniaco Conti. Let's face it, times are facts but jumping is opinion and connections and the racing media all seemed satisfied that it was a decent round apart from the first.
 
i don't value the racing media tbh..i go on what i see or can measure,,what i see.. is a stiff awkward jumper with little natural jumping ability..running in the biggest test of jumping we know about..only one conclusion i can draw..he isn't a GC winner for me based on what i've seen for 40 years watching the game.

anyone who thinks he is a GC horse..dip your bread in
 
Comparisons between Holywell and Exotic Dancer have not been made here.
ED ran in Gold Cup off 167 on his tenth chase run, having been second in KGVI admittedly but won off 149 in December chase.
Holywell after roughly as many chases and at a similar rating coming into Festival.
Thoughts ?
 
To get to the heights Exotic Dancer reached Holywell is going to have to start getting on the racecourse more.

He has a chance to advance in the Gold Cup but can we really expect this grade 3 handicapper
who you would have to say has disappointed this season to win a Gold Cup?

Holywell is a fair animal but he's got to improve a ton to be taken seriously as a Gold Cup horse and so far he hasn't improved an ounce...that you would notice.
He beat Ma Filleule when she was thought not to be at her best at Chelteham last year by under 2 lengths and she's any price you like for the Gold Cup
There was talk of NJH running her but he seems resigned to the fact her best chance would be in lesser company in the Ryanair.
At least she has a decent bit of form in the book but Holywell has nothing to inspire
Kelso was a joke and no more than a racecourse gallop and the time was as slow as the Hunter Chase was given he carried 2lbs more

Jonjo has pulled off some magic tricks in his time but even he will have to outdo anything he has done before to win the Gold Cup and outdo Exotic Dancer

His biggest assets are he will run his heart out, stays forever but unless it turns out to be an exceptionally bad Gold Cup he's sure to struggle.

Never mind there's always the Hennessy and the National next year if he can find another AP McCoy
 
If Ma Filleule's "decent bit of form" is managing to get humped by Balder Success in receipt of 7lbs, then she's assuredly not as much cop as you think she is.

She is any price you like for the GC for a reason - namely that she won't bleedin' run in it.

The Grade 3 handicapper Holywell is also a G1-winning novice chaser, with ten runs over fences under his belt; three of them coming before he learned to jump at all, and another two of which came when his stable couldn't buy a winner for love nor money. Interestingly, he has won his other five starts - all of them coming between late-January and early-April. His jumping needs to improve - that much is obvious to all but DO (but then again, he has 50/1 about the yoke, and is therefore entitled to exude blind-confidence) - but he cannot be dismissed quite so readily as you would like, in form terms.

If Silviniaco Conti runs up to his best, they are all wasting their time. If he doesn't, and Cheltenham genuinely is his Achilles Heel, then Holywell is one of about ten horses who could win the Gold Cup.
 
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Tanlic said:
Holywell.... you would have to say has disappointed this season
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SERIOUSLY?????

I thought his seasonal debut at Carlisle was very promising and the form could hardly work out better, bearing in mind he would only have been half fit.

He unseated at Aintree before the race had started seriously and you could maybe say that was a disappointing mishap but it's the kind of mishap that could happen to any horse, especially on very bad ground that he wouldn't have liked.

His RPR for his other run, last week, was a career peak and he was never out of second gear. How on earth can that be regarded as disappointing?
 
Grasshopper said:
His jumping needs to improve - that much is obvious to all but DO (but then again, he has 50/1 about the yoke, and is therefore entitled to exude blind-confidence) - but he cannot be dismissed quite so readily as you would like, in form terms.

If Silviniaco Conti runs up to his best, they are all wasting their time. If he doesn't, and Cheltenham genuinely is his Achilles Heel, then Holywell is one of about ten horses who could win the Gold Cup.
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If he jumps as he did at Cheltenham last year he might have a problem, even though he was still able to overcome it that day. If he jumps as he did at Aintree a month later or as at Kelso last week, I won't have any worries about him getting round. Given the way he gets up that hill, if he's within five lengths of Silviniaco Conti at the last he'll finish in front of him.

However, if Bobs Worth returns at his very best I suspect he'll win cosily.
 
What does the article say, DO?

Does Cattermole have insight that a switch is imminent, or is it a jolly-hockeysticks, JP-is-a-good-egg, opinion piece?
 
Grasshopper said:
What does the article say, DO?

Does Cattermole have insight that a switch is imminent, or is it a jolly-hockeysticks, JP-is-a-good-egg, opinion piece?
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Basically what I suggested some time back:

It's McCoy's last Cheltenham;
might McManus allow him to ride a few attractive spares, eg Holywell?
Holywell's owners are good friends of JP;
why did McCoy go to Kelso when McLernon [who rode H in last two festivals] was down south?
why wasn't McL on H then if he's going to be on him next month?
"Given a free rein, I am pretty sure McCoy would prefer to ride Holywell"
 
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