Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015

He's ran better than I expected in the last two Festivals. Ruby got off him to ride Unioniste in the RSA, vibes were wrong, but he ran a stormer until the last.
 
My phone tells me that rain is expected at Cheltenham on Thursday and Friday of next week. Were the going to turn 'soft' - and it wouldn't take much to do that - at least the form of this season so far might be relied upon; however, who is favoured specifically in the GC? Many Clouds. Silivia Conti and Bobs Worth, Djakadam, Coneygree(?) for sure, but do we automatically discount the others? I still like the fact that Road to Riches won a Lexus on soft and at possibly longer distance than advertised.
 
EC1 - Because didn't your good self do the sectionals, and discovered the overall finishing time was too slow to be true? And then didn't someone else do a google earth measurement and this confirmed it?
 
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EC1 said:
no that was either Haydock or wetherby

i've got sectionals for the lexus but never had reason to question the distance there
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Apologies, mate: I read it on another forum. And the distance was correct but the standard times were wrong. Apparently!

Anyway, that Road to Riches? He's winning the Gold Cup.
 
i've lost track of races and distances Len..i'll put it down to age

aye RTR is an upward type...i think this year we will see the new guard take the old guard..your SC's and Bobsworths will get mastered by yours or many clouds i think
 
Len Madeiros said:
My phone tells me that rain is expected at Cheltenham on Thursday and Friday of next week. Were the going to turn 'soft' - and it wouldn't take much to do that - at least the form of this season so far might be relied upon; however, who is favoured specifically in the GC? Many Clouds. Silivia Conti and Bobs Worth, Djakadam, Coneygree(?) for sure, but do we automatically discount the others? I still like the fact that Road to Riches won a Lexus on soft and at possibly longer distance than advertised.
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According to Metcheck it is to be dry now until Tuesday when there will be spits and spots of rain on each of the four days.
 
Len Madeiros said:
Apologies, mate: I read it on another forum. And the distance was correct but the standard times were wrong. Apparently!

Anyway, that Road to Riches? He's winning the Gold Cup.
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If I remember right I backed Road to Riches in the Lexus and myself and someone else suggested he could be a Gold Cup horse but my concern on reflection is how much is the Lexus form worth.

Sam Winner finishing 3rd makes me wonder as does Carlingford Lough finishing back in 5th. Others like LW and BW never ran a message. I couldn't put my hand on my heart and say Carlingford Lough boosted the form because he put up a much better performance than he did in the Lexus when he never at anytime threatened to win.

So all we have to go on really is that On His Own finished 2nd there and in the previous Gold Cup. His defeat of Rocky Creek was a good run but Rocky Creek the and now look like 2 different animals.

Be brave man to say he can't win but on bare form which while consistent isn't anything spectacular he really shouldn't be winning unless he's improved an awful lot

Winning a Lexus is one thing but winning a Cheltenham Gold cup with everything fit as fleas is a totally different ball game.........another huge minus is there's no guarantee he'll handle the course
 
Euronymous said:
He wasn't last season. I thought he ran a really good race considering it was his first fencing of the season.
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Commentary from last year is "In rear, pushed along 3 out, stayed on, not reach leaders", Euro. Same again is about as much as he could hope for i.e. taken off his feet and running on through beaten horses.
 
NH currently being interviwed on RacingUK, Bobs Worth working on Sunday, seemed genuinely shocked ( and disappointed) when told Cheltenham was being watered today
 
Seems the best backed horse in the race this week has been Djakadam.

Personally I am dead against him running and think this is bordering on greed in the Mullins camp.

A comparative novice at the tender age of 6 years who completed only 4 chases in his life taking on the best seasoned chasers from Ireland and England.

The brilliant Gloria Victis lost his life in this race and even if he had stood up may not have won and he'd be a stone better than this horse.

If the horse had actually won something worth talking about and was a brilliant outstanding talented horse I could maybe better understand it but
those are not words I would use to describe him.

If he runs and wins then good on them but if he were mine he'd be wrapped up in cotton wool given more time to mature then head for next years King George or Hennessy.
 
On the RP site they have an interview with Mullins and he said that he thought Djakadam's Thyestes win was the best chasing performance in Ireland this year. He clearly likes this horse a lot. Whether he's right or not is a different question.
 
I suppose that will depend on how he interprets a 'chasing performance'. It certainly wouldn't be the performance that earned the highest rating but he's also on record as saying the horse still wasn't fit and that Ruby said he'd never travelled better in a Thyestes yet he still won one of the most competitive handicap chases in the calendar seemingly without coming out of third gear.

He's maybe factoring how much better than the bare form he believes the horse to be.
 
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If Djakadam was trained by anyone else in Ireland he'd be at least twice the price he is now. Quite how many handicappers are we going to make a case for this year? I'll be perfectly happy to see money for Djakadam as the week goes on. It just means better prices for those that can win.
 
I think Djakadam is very likely to be the best horse in the field, another matter if he is going to win a race like this being so inexperienced.
i think his thiestes run was really good, it was a very good edition of a very good handicap, won in good style by a top weight horse.
 
I have the utmost respect for the form and ratings guru's on this forum. Any time Sunny, EC1, DO or others of that quality put up their form figures I genuinely pay very close attention. But I just cannot see this Thiestes form! It was on heavy ground in a fog... And let's be honest... None of us could see it!

I believe this race is being way over-hyped via the comments of Ruby and WPM. Take a form line directly through the 2nd My Murphy and Roi De Mee and I just can't see how it puts Djakadam on c160 already. More than happy to be corrected here, but the more and more I look at this I just can't see how the theistes form is being held in such high regard.
 
Those who are considering him will be paying close attention to the NH Chase on Tuesday. If The Job Is Right runs well and Mullins has multiple winners he will start 2nd fav on Friday.
 
Someone told me what I thought was an interesting fact today that the last time Ruby won a chase race at the Festival was 2009 on Kauto.
Might be totally irrelevant but a bit surprising considering the stables he has ridden for since.
 
Double Handful said:
I have the utmost respect for the form and ratings guru's on this forum. Any time Sunny, EC1, DO or others of that quality put up their form figures I genuinely pay very close attention. But I just cannot see this Thiestes form! It was on heavy ground in a fog... And let's be honest... None of us could see it!

I believe this race is being way over-hyped via the comments of Ruby and WPM. Take a form line directly through the 2nd My Murphy and Roi De Mee and I just can't see how it puts Djakadam on c160 already. More than happy to be corrected here, but the more and more I look at this I just can't see how the theistes form is being held in such high regard.
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i've posted somewhere on her that i don't rate that form..my murphy devalues it with last effort imo..you can rate Djakadam any higher than Roi De mee using him as a marker...virtually what you have said..its on one of teh cheltenham threads this week,

found it on the preview nights thread

Djakadam beat a up to the hilt in handicap terms ..My Murphy ...who has since been stuffed by 12L receiving 8 from a 152 Roi De Mee

If a 152 horse can give weight and beating to it then what did Djakadam actually achieve by giving it a lesser beating?

I think a 160 is very fanciful tbh
 
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