Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015

Desert Orchid said:
Fair enough, Gh.

I'll withdraw from the debate altogether.
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I'd much rather you addressed the points made, DO. I have no desire whatsoever to chase you from this or any other thread, and your contributions are always valid - even if I don't always agree with them.

I just don't understand your logic on this, and why you are reticent to share your thoughts - because if you fancy Djakadam, then you surely have backed him already and aren't going to miss a price. I'm not looking for a blow-by-blow account of how you compile your ratings, how you allocate + or ++.......I just want to understand how you get 160+ for Djakadam......because maybe I've overlooked something that you haven't.

It would be great if you would reconsider, and give me some kind of indication as to how you've rated, without opening your box of tricks all the way.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
For one horse to be allocated 12-0 and the other 10-0 in the same handicap, their ORs would already have 28lbs between them based on other form so it wouldn't be hard to argue that one is rated 28lbs superior. If they then came out and ran a dead-heat at those weights you would have to argue that the handicapper was justified in his assessment in the first place.
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but if his original rating is only based on handicap runs for both horses..then his original rating for the top weight may be completely built on carrying weight well in handicaps..hence a potentially false rating based on an ability to carry weight rather than beat other 178 rated horse at levels..basically the top weight horse has ratings built from weight carrying performances....not actual level of horse beaten
 
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Grasshopper said:
I just don't understand your logic on this, and why you are reticent to share your thoughts - because if you fancy Djakadam, then you surely have backed him already and aren't going to miss a price. ..
It would be great if you would reconsider, and give me some kind of indication as to how you've rated, without opening your box of tricks all the way.
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I don't fancy Djakadam and haven't taken a price. But I do believe the Thyestes form is better than generally regarded. I really don't see the point now in going beyond that. I've reconsidered to an extent in the sense that I will make the odd comment about this or that but will be much more circumspect not to invite forensic interrogation.
 
EC1 said:
but if his original rating is only based on handicap runs for both horses..then his original rating for the top weight may be completely built on carrying weight well in handicaps..hence a potentially false rating based on an ability to carry weight rather than beat other 178 rated horse at levels..basically the top weight horse has ratings built from weight carrying performances....not actual level of horse beaten
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Yes, but you didn't mention that when introducing the scenario. ORs weren't specified. What if the superior horse is a 140 animal who got that mark carrying 10-0 in the Hennessy and is now taking on one who got his mark carrying 11-10 in a Class 5 handicap chase?
 
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we could use examples all day though DO

my main point in general is that when a horse puts up a big rating in a handicap..mainly due to weight carried..what % of it is just down to being able to carry weight?

I think it works the other way too..you could have a horse rated 165 earned by running in non handicaps..stick it in a handicap giving a stone+ to lessers and it might struggle..not because it isn't a 170 horse..but because its a small horse that can't carry the burden..back against open company it can beat 160+ horses at levels
 
Desert Orchid said:
I mentioned Bobs Worth because he was the most recent Handicap winner to take the Gold Cup.

The year before that, Synchronised was dismissed as a soft ground handicapper who'd got lucky in a G1 in Ireland.

The year before that Long Run was gubbed off 158 in the Paddy Power.

Cool Dawn was off 140 in a handicap four months before his win.

Master Oats? Jodami?

The word 'handicap' should not lead to instant dismissal. It's what the form amounts to.

Enjoy your Don Revie :)
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I think you just mentioned 4 horses I backed in the Gold Cup....seasoned campaigners each and every one of them.

Didn't need ratings secret or otherwise to pick them.

I need a philadelphia lawyer to make a case for Djakadam before I'd back the young horse..I simply can't see it happening but wish you luck
 
Desert Orchid said:
I mentioned Bobs Worth because he was the most recent Handicap winner to take the Gold Cup.

The year before that, Synchronised was dismissed as a soft ground handicapper who'd got lucky in a G1 in Ireland.

The year before that Long Run was gubbed off 158 in the Paddy Power.

Cool Dawn was off 140 in a handicap four months before his win.

Master Oats? Jodami?

The word 'handicap' should not lead to instant dismissal. It's what the form amounts to.

Enjoy your Don Revie :)
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I think you just mentioned 4 horses I backed in the Gold Cup....seasoned campaigners each and every one of them.

Didn't need ratings secret or otherwise to pick them.

I need a philadelphia lawyer to make a case for Djakadam before I'd back the young horse..I simply can't see it happening but wish you luck
 
Tanlic said:
I need a philadelphia lawyer to make a case for Djakadam before I'd back the young horse..I simply can't see it happening but wish you luck
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No need, Tanlic. I won't be backing Djakadam (I don't think, unless there's some dramatic turn of events).

While backing H at 50/1 last March was a value punt (based on handicap form I should add), as was Road To Riches at 20/1 earlier this season, my entire thinking regarding the race now boils down to my conviction that SC won't show his best form on the day. It's a risky position to put myself in but as I said earlier the disappointment of seeing Wayward Lad go from cruising to empty in two strides after the last remains indelible. He was at least as far ahead of his rivals in the book as SC and I backed him in the belief that against that opposition he would be fine.

Having said that, if old Bobs Worth rediscovers his form of two years ago it wouldn't matter how good SC was.
 
Have to agree to that stage he seemed happy but hard to say how he would have coped when the race started in earnest and Choc kicked for home just before the 3rd last.

Most horses will travel ok on most ground but their preference doesn't show until the latter stages and pressure is applied

Some of course won't go a yard so I suspect he'll be fine but have no idea if good fast ground will be a plus or a minus to him.

A bigger problem all of us have is we assume it's going to good or good to soft......I want good but I haven't been out of the UK that long I don't remember how quickly the weather can change.
 
Desert Orchid said:
No need, Tanlic. I won't be backing Djakadam (I don't think, unless there's some dramatic turn of events).

While backing H at 50/1 last March was a value punt (based on handicap form I should add), as was Road To Riches at 20/1 earlier this season, my entire thinking regarding the race now boils down to my conviction that SC won't show his best form on the day. It's a risky position to put myself in but as I said earlier the disappointment of seeing Wayward Lad go from cruising to empty in two strides after the last remains indelible. He was at least as far ahead of his rivals in the book as SC and I backed him in the belief that against that opposition he would be fine.

Having said that, if old Bobs Worth rediscovers his form of two years ago it wouldn't matter how good SC was.
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Well you got BG on your side that's for sure bc he seems to think there's another Gold Cup in him....I thought he was coming to win it last year then he decided he didn't like the idea of running in a straight line....I thought BG was going to come out the side door half way up the run in before which he was going to finish in front of SC imo.......my only worry is if PN/Noel Fehily say fook it and SC goes really early Bobs Worth could suffer badly and not get back into it.

Like always it depends a lot on what others do and you need luck in running when they all have holes in them
 
Never heard of him. It came up when I was googling something else so I thought I'd check it out. Really just consolidates what others have said on here without ruling him out altogether.
 
Ruby Walsh was very impressed by Boston Bob and will ride him again on Friday before making a decision on bothe the Gold Cup and the Champion Hurdle.

What interested me more was what he said about Kauto Star and Denman. At the time he said he had no choice but he knew Kauto Star wasn't right and just wasn't giving him the same feel. He said he would have ridden Denman if he could have.


Apart from lying through his teeth and telling everyone the horse was in great form it goes to show he doesn't have a sentimental bone in his body and is the complete professional. If Faugheen works well on Friday he'll ride him without hesitation if he's on Hurricane Fly you can toss every voucher you have for Faugheen out the window IMO
 
Tanlic said:
Ruby Walsh was very impressed by Boston Bob and will ride him again on Friday before making a decision on bothe the Gold Cup and the Champion Hurdle.
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Boston Bob is defiantly one I would want to keep onside in the Gold Cup on good ground. He is the quintessential 'Spring Horse' imo.
However, Patrick has been intimating at recent preview nights that BB might go for the Ryanair.
 
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