Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015

Grasshopper said:
Aye....Gold Cups are usually full of them right enough.

Exactly how bad a Gold Cup do you think this is? It's not great, I'll give you that, but it's not bad enough that a horse with Djakadam's profile can win it. The Hennessy was only 3 months ago - you might want to take another look at the race, before committing any more of your 'easily earned'. :lol:
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I'm on at decent odds from earlier in the season...i wont be going near him again. But i think its a very open Gold Cup and there are plenty of doubts about the more experienced horses. Yes Djak needs to improve a lot based of past form....but as he doesnt have much on the clock there is no reason he wont improve past them.
 
Gimme a break Luke you can't count Arkle.......seriously Arkle?

There was nothing else to run in way back then even the King George was a handicap plus Arkle was a 7 year old when he won his 1st Gold Cup.

Ruby reckons it was a very good trial most likely because On His Own won the same race but you can counter that by
looking back at Couldn't Be Better when Brad pissed up on him and with 12 stone on his back but failed to land a blow in the Gold Cup.

I always ask myself would Holywell, S Conti, RtR have won that.........they most certainly would have.

If he had beat something decent I'd agree he'd have to be considered but that was a total non even this year.

PLUS the ground..........he obviously enjoyed the heavy ground on good? a young horse against seasoned pros? g/l but not my idea of serious contender

Wasn't a bad trial but it doesn't
 
Grasshopper said:
No reason at all......other than it would take an unusually large amount of improvement to see him involved in the finish.......
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No, it wouldn't. The bare form leaves him only a pound or two behind The Giant Bolster or On His Own (also a previous winner I think) and wouldn't take into account the ease of victory.

As for handicap form, Tanlic. Let's forget Arkle. What about Bobs Worth?
 
When Jonjo was asked how Holywell was he's said he's definitely going the right way

When asked what his best chance of a winner was he said :" If I back UDS in the Arkle":D
 
Desert Orchid said:
No, it wouldn't. The bare form leaves him only a pound or two behind The Giant Bolster or On His Own (also a previous winner I think) and wouldn't take into account the ease of victory.

As for handicap form, Tanlic. Let's forget Arkle. What about Bobs Worth?
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Bobsworth had won about 10 races and ha brilliant Cheltenham form how can you compare him to a poxy 6 year old just out of his nappies..........Going to the pub DO will reply later if you have anything further to add:)
 
My Murphy hasn't exactly franked the form of that Tyestes Race either, has he?
He was 8 Lengths behind Djakadam, but finished 12 Lengths behind Roi Du Mee on his next start.
Highly aware it's not an exact science, but taking a form line through Roi Du Mee would suggest the form is well short of Gold Cup winning standard.
 
Tanlic
Taking the fall out of the equation, he had no problem coping with the ground in the JLT.
 
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Three of the fancied runners next week represent Irish handicap form-RTR,CL and Djakadam-it isn't out of the question that the last two winners of the Galway Plate could fight out the finish.Racing has changed a lot in recent years-the Gainsborough Chase and Otley Hurdle were meaningful Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle trials when I started out watching racing on a Saturday afternoon-they are now meaningless.
 
Desert Orchid said:
No, it wouldn't. The bare form leaves him only a pound or two behind The Giant Bolster or On His Own (also a previous winner I think) and wouldn't take into account the ease of victory.
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You genuinely think the form of the Thyestes boosts Djakadam into 160+ territory? Seriously?

Fair enough.
 
Frankel said:
Where I agree is that it may just be a year early for him. He does though have youth and vastly more potential improvement than OHO.
I was at Newbury and saw him. He was plenty big enough.
He jumped and travelled very well indeed. Was clearly caught out by lack of fitness. Doubters would no doubt been after him last time out over a test enough.

No interests in cheap points. This is a game of opinions where a vast range of opinions will be discussed.
Yes am a Djakadam fan and backed him near enough a year ago.
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Good enough, Frankel.

Irrational defence of one's you have backed at a price is perfectly OK with me. :cool:
 
Let's put trust to one side for the moment.

Based on what line of form from the Thyestes, is he a 160+ beast?
 
Tanlic said:
Bobsworth had won about 10 races and ha brilliant Cheltenham form how can you compare him to a poxy 6 year old just out of his nappies..........Going to the pub DO will reply later if you have anything further to add:)
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I mentioned Bobs Worth because he was the most recent Handicap winner to take the Gold Cup.

The year before that, Synchronised was dismissed as a soft ground handicapper who'd got lucky in a G1 in Ireland.

The year before that Long Run was gubbed off 158 in the Paddy Power.

Cool Dawn was off 140 in a handicap four months before his win.

Master Oats? Jodami?

The word 'handicap' should not lead to instant dismissal. It's what the form amounts to.

Enjoy your Don Revie :)
 
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Grasshopper said:
Let's put trust to one side for the moment.

Based on what line of form from the Thyestes, is he a 160+ beast?
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So you don't trust me. :)

I'm not going to go into that on the forum. It would give away too much about how I rate certain lines of form and there are too many on here - not you - that I am not prepared to share that with.

And even if I did tell you you'd just dismiss it because you don't agree with it.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
The word 'handicap' should not lead to instant dismissal. It's what the form amounts to.
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we come back to the worth of handicap form

when a horse carries a big weight into a place in a handicap..is it worth the rating that the extra weight carried suggests

an example

1st horse A carries 10.0
2nd horse B carries 12.0

result = a dead heat

ratings given = horse A 150...horse B = 178

is horse B really a 28lb better horse than A when allotting a rating to each horse?
 
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Desert Orchid said:
The word 'handicap' should not lead to instant dismissal. It's what the form amounts to.
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Agreed.

Bobs Worth won a Hennessy off a mark of 160, and Djakadam finished 8th in the same race off a mark of 142. Like you say, it's all about what the form amounts too, but you appear to be suggesting that Djakadam has improved upwards of 20lbs between Newbury and Gowran.

I ain't buying it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
So you don't trust me. :)

I'm not going to go into that on the forum. It would give away too much about how I rate certain lines of form and there are too many on here - not you - that I am not prepared to share that with.

And even if I did tell you you'd just dismiss it because you don't agree with it.
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Is this for real??

Sorry DO, but this is a total cop-out.
 
He's hardly exposed! He'll have a +p on his rating and 8th the Hennessey isn't thst bad when you look how that race worked out.
 
Sorry Slim, but I'm not prepared to discuss it what I post on an open forum, on an open forum. Please go away. :blink:
 
EC1 said:
we come back to the worth of handicap form

when a horse carries a big weight into a place in a handicap..is it worth the rating that the extra weight carried suggests

an example

1st horse A carries 10.0
2nd horse B carries 12.0

result = a dead heat

ratings given = horse A 150...horse B = 178

is horse B really a 28lb better horse than A when allotting a rating to each horse?
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For one horse to be allocated 12-0 and the other 10-0 in the same handicap, their ORs would already have 28lbs between them based on other form so it wouldn't be hard to argue that one is rated 28lbs superior. If they then came out and ran a dead-heat at those weights you would have to argue that the handicapper was justified in his assessment in the first place.
 
What is there to defend, DO? Your treating your ratings as if they're some kind of state secret, which is a nonsense.

I know you share your card with others here, which is fair enough, but surely you can see that it's not on to make a statement on here - bold or otherwise - and then refuse to explain it when questioned, just because you consider the thought process that went into it 'sensitive info'? If that's the case, you're basically saying you refuse to explain yourself in some circumstances, which isn't much bloody use when it comes to debating the minutiae of form.

Don't take this the wrong way, but I don't want to go "off forum" with it. I enjoy the craic of debating things here, where everyone can participate, and there are no taboos. It really doesn't matter if I'm right or wrong - having the joust is reward enough in itself for me, because it sometimes forces me to re-think my position. I have no desire to 'guard' my thought processes - maybe because they're worthless? :lol: - because it's a forum, not a closed-shop.

Slim is keen to put a betting group together, and I have expressed an interest in that - as soon as the next Flat season is over. To me, it is legitimate to keep any selections discussed by that group, private - because it's real people and real people's money.

This, however, is a thread about the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and is an altogether different matter. I just think it's rank bad form to debate away as you have on the thread, and when push comes to shove and you're asked to explain your logic, you retreat into the shadows citing your work as too important to share. If you considered your opinions on the event to be that precious, then you may have been better served by keeping out of it from the start.
 
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