Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015

Interesting that Lads go 16/1 Coneygree for this but only 3/1 for the RSA. Magic Sign must think he's RSA bound. Paddy takes a different view with 8/1 for this and 7/1 RSA. Where do we think he'll run?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
If I were them I'd wait on the Don Poli decision. If he goes for the RSA it looks a harder race to win than the Gold Cup so that might decide it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I would be wary about confusing what Jonjo thinks with what Jonjo says he thinks...
Click to expand...

You could be confusing Jonjo McManus with Jonjo O'Neill:p.

The horse had good form over hurdles and certainly had the ability to win a Grade 3 chase of a mark of 145
but going into it after scraping home against a 138 rated horse at Donnie would give anyone doubts in what looked a very competitive race.

It's not like he was gambled off the boards DO he went off at 10/1 in a very open market full of possible winners in which Jonjo's Alfie Sherrin with AP on board was a well backed favourite.

Sorry!! Jonjo is very shrewd but he doesn't have a crystal ball that can tell the future and he had no reason to be telling porkies to anyone in what looked like the most open race of the festival.

The horse was off for his life at Carlisle and he was beaten very easy in the end which was a huge setback then he's unseated rider to make things worse.


You can't possibly think that is part of a Jonjo plan to skin the bookies

to say Jonjo is worried about his chances in the Gold Cup would be the understatement of the century.

It's pure guesswork whether he's up to Gold Cup class or not. His win over Don Cossack helps a bit but not that much considering he was beaten out of sight 2 weeks after Aintree

If Jonjo O/Neill can win the Gold Cup with a horse out of form who's highest rating to date is 163 it will be the best training performance since Jonjo McManus won it with Synchronised who was rated 167:)

He might also finish in front of The Giant Bolster but I have doubts that he's good enough to win it but if anyone can pull it off it's Jonjo.
 
Last edited:
viking said:
Interesting that Lads go 16/1 Coneygree for this but only 3/1 for the RSA. Magic Sign must think he's RSA bound. Paddy takes a different view with 8/1 for this and 7/1 RSA. Where do we think he'll run?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Depends how much coke they have snorted before deciding where a 153 horse rated 21lbs below the favourite.........I'd run him and Holywell because quite frankly it's about the worst looking Gold Cup in history if the Nicholls horse flops again
 
I suppose it depends on who's ratings you are looking at Viking if they think the RP has it right they'd have to run him in the Gold Cup

Hope they do as I have backed Kings Palace for the RSA :)
 
Last edited:
Tanlic said:
The horse was off for his life at Carlisle and he was beaten very easy in the end which was a huge setback then he's unseated rider to make things worse.
Click to expand...

I'd say they were delighted with the Carlisle run, ran well for a long way before tiring in the straight, over a trip well short of his best.

Finished 16 lengths behind Many Clouds giving him 6 lbs. At the same meeting last season he finished 9 lengths behind Many Clouds off levels.

How can this be a 'huge setback' when Beat That ran a similar race on his comeback, was beaten much further yet seemingly ran a cracker?
 
Blinkers play a major part in how well Holywell performs. In the past two seasons they have kept them off him until Cheltenham and in both those seasons he was hardly pulling up trees beforehand.

His Cheltenham and Aintree performances with the blinkers on have been far superior of anything else he's achieved. Admittedly he ran badly against Quevega at the end of his hurdling campaign but you could argue that the blinkers would be less effective on his third consecutive start with them on.

Again they've kept them off this campaign but you can bet your life they'll be on when March 13th comes around. For me he's sure to run a fine race although his jumping is a bit sketchy. It's just weighing up if the blinkers will bring out enough improvement in him to win a Gold Cup.
 
Maybe they want to see if he's a true contender today then. But for me that's not a great decision.
 
thehorsesmouth said:
I'd say they were delighted with the Carlisle run, ran well for a long way before tiring in the straight, over a trip well short of his best.

Finished 16 lengths behind Many Clouds giving him 6 lbs. At the same meeting last season he finished 9 lengths behind Many Clouds off levels.

How can this be a 'huge setback' when Beat That ran a similar race on his comeback, was beaten much further yet seemingly ran a cracker?
Click to expand...


Two different situation surely?.... Holywell 3/1 was fancied to win and thought fit enough to do so (as rumour would have it) True or not the betting would indicate he was well fancied.

The pace looked decent, faster than the novice chase on the same card, but none of the 3 fancied horses made a move until 3 out having travelled well within themselves. From when Many Clouds quickened Holywell was immediately under pressure and never got a blow in, despite AP's urgings. He was 2/12 lengths up on Eduard levels at the 3rd last and couldn't even fend him off. Not exactly a run to write home about.

Maybe is was lack of fitness but if it wasn't I doubt if connections were delighted if it wasn't.

You obviously were unaware that Beat That had only been in a few weeks before he ran. Big as a barn door and badly in need of a run he drifted from 4/1 to 8/1 and bigger on the machine. Barry had even said he would need the run hence he chose to ride his stable companion.

Despite being totally unfit he's come there looking like he might even win the race at the top of the hill before stopping like shot. Even the commentator said after the race "He blew up" He travelled like a dream during the race up to that point and showed all the old ability was still there.

Under those circumstances I'd have been over the moon if he were mines and you don't need to guess if NJH was delighted he openly said so to the media.

Admittedly he was maybe being a bit biased as the horse is the apple of his eye or one of them at least
 
Last edited:
Tanlic,
Holywell ran perfectly fine at Carlisle. He was always going to struggle against the 1st two home.
 
I always worry about how many times headgear can be used to good effect. (I did mention this on the Champion Hurdle thread about Jezki).
 
I'd also add that Jonjo's have only come to life in the last few weeks, and pretty much everything prior was running flat.

In the case of Holywell my talk was he blew up at Carlise despite what Jonjo's or the market said or expected.

Either way, and perhaps both, it's easily explained.
 
Frankel said:
Tanlic,
Holywell ran perfectly fine at Carlisle. He was always going to struggle against the 1st two home.
Click to expand...

No offense but aren't you aftertiming a bit?

On the book at the time he was 13 lbs ahead of Many Clouds and 8lbs ahead of Eduard you couldn't possibly have said that before the race with any conviction
 
AP made damn sure he had a good gallop so you'd have to put that down as a bit of racecourse training.

Bound to bring him on but S Conti would have lapped those without batting an eyelid.

I honestly don't know what to make of the horse.

If it was an exceptional Gold Cup I doubt if he'd be sighted but in this years renewal and AP on board who knows.

His jumping could be a lot better, horses do tend to do everything a bit better when they are 100% spot on,
but a few slow jumps in the Gold Cup by a slogger like him with no second gears and your ass is grass....y
 
See More Business could be a very dodgy jumper but it didn't stop him when it mattered.

Holywell made mistakes last season and it did'nt stop him.

I wouldn't let any minor concerns about jumping put me off him.
 
Many Clouds might just be the most improved staying chaser in the country...damned if I know why anyone would think Holywell will reverse places with him at Cheltenham.
 
Back
Top