Cheltenham Handicap Watch

Marb said:
Thats a confidence booster, DO. Cheers.

He was badly hampered the last day aswell, but stayed on nicely nevertheless.

Slim talks about big gambles in the green and gold.

I feel this could be a big gamble not in the green and gold.
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He's not a dark horse. The whole world knows he has at least a stone in hand but Tony Martin is campaigning the horse like it's 2002 not 2020.
 
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Ravenhill goes for the National Hunt Chsse. More preview night bullshit with Johnny Ward reporting Jamie Codd would ride it in the Kim Muir.
 
Slim said:
He's not a dark horse. The whole world knows he has at least a stone in hand but Tony Martin is campaigning the horse like it's 2002 not 2020.
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This is spot on. Tony Martin has totally messed up a plot and he'll need to go somewhere else to land it.

FWIW Tony Martin won't win his consolation race, Paul Nolan wins that.
 
Slim said:
He's not a dark horse. The whole world knows he has at least a stone in hand but Tony Martin is campaigning the horse like it's 2002 not 2020.
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What if he gets in off 135.

What will the whole world have to say then...
 
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Marb said:
What if he gets in off 135.

What will the whole world have to say then...
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They'll say he's already joint Fav for the race, Marb. And if he gets in, then he'll likely be clear Fav.
So that hardly represents value or an angle that gives any of us an edge.
So by that very definition he's not a dark horse. As Slim mentioned everyone knows he has a stone in hand.

None of which is to day he can't or won't win, of course. Jockey will obviously be key.
At the end of the day if he's an 8/1 winner, you'd rightfully be delighted :)
 
Maruco said:
This is spot on. Tony Martin has totally messed up a plot and he'll need to go somewhere else to land it.

FWIW Tony Martin won't win his consolation race, Paul Nolan wins that.
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Yes too well handicapped. The Kim Muir - Irish National double would be a possibility if he gets a run.
 
I don't think I used the term dark horse but anyways.

Slim and others are salivating over a few Mcmanus horses of similiar prices.

No harm in mentioning a big potential Tony Martin plunge.
 
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Marb said:
At least he's doing his research (as we all should be) or have been doing.

Fail to prepare..prepare to fail..
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Much more time efficient to be a judge of judges rather than being a good judge yourself!!

Sent from my SM-J415FN using Tapatalk
 
Marb said:
I don't think I used the term dark horse but anyways.

Slim and others are salivating over a few Mcmanus horses of similiar prices.

No harm in mentioning a big potential Tony Martin plunge.
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Ilikedwayurthinkin
 
Sorry to be lazy/needy/thick or all three.

I am looking for a database of all all JPMcM runners in Handicaps at Cheltenham last n years.

Anybody?
 
After DO's post I have been looking at recent renewals of the Kim Muir. I would say At The Acorn is odds-on to make the cut, (assuming connections intend to declare him).

A mark of 135 is just enough to be confident. 134 would be leaving it to chance. 133 would leave backers in no mans land. Every one pound counts at this end of the handicap.

My best guess is he makes the cut with four or five horses to spare.
 
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Marb said:
After DO's post I have been looking at recent renewals of the Kim Muir. I would say At The Acorn is odds-on to make the cut, assuming connections intend to run.
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No use looking at previous years. You need to look at the list and how many need you come out and how likely that is. I'll lay you 6/4 he gets a run.
 
I take the opposite view. Previous years give a good indication as to the cut off point. You won't go far wrong looking that way.

Looking at how many are above him in the weights tells you nothing at this stage. There could be 50, 60 or 70 above him. So much will change at the final decs.

The only constant is the cut off point for this race in terms of 'the mean' tends to be between 132-134.

I would have a good bet on at 6/4 with you, but I have been investing plenty for next week.

I placed a decent win lucky 15 earlier on my main Cheltenham fancies. At The Acorn is one of them.
 
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Marb said:
I take the opposite view. Previous years give a good indication as to the cut off point. You won't go far wrong looking that way.

Looking at how many are above him in the weights tells you nothing at this stage. There could be 50, 60 or 70 above him. So much will change at the final decs.

The only constant is the cut off point for this race in terms of 'the mean' tends to be between 132-134.

I would have a good bet on at 6/4 with you, but I have been investing plenty for next week.

I placed a decent win lucky 15 earlier on my main Cheltenham fancies. At The Acorn is one of them.
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What is the lucky 15? I hope you have a good week.
 
McManus has 6 runners above him, each with a different trainer, he has plots in the race, so he will leave shrapnel in there to stop lower handicapped horses getting in, that's what he does.
 
an capall said:
Sorry to be lazy/needy/thick or all three.

I am looking for a database of all all JPMcM runners in Handicaps at Cheltenham last n years.

Anybody?
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I've asked a few people with databases and no one can search by owner. This might (gulp) have to be done manually...
 
Maxbet said:
McManus has 6 runners above him, each with a different trainer, he has plots in the race, so he will leave shrapnel in there to stop lower handicapped horses getting in, that's what he does.
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This is so dirty but part of the game.
 
It is indeed just part of the game.

I'd be more concerned about the situation with reserves in big handicaps and it would be only a small tweak to say that a reserve cannot replace a horse in the same ownership or with the same trainer.
 
archie said:
It is indeed just part of the game.

I'd be more concerned about the situation with reserves in big handicaps and it would be only a small tweak to say that a reserve cannot replace a horse in the same ownership or with the same trainer.
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I would be very surprised if money doesn't already change hands in these situations between unconnected connections/trainers.
 
Slim said:
I've asked a few people with databases and no one can search by owner. This might (gulp) have to be done manually...
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I was afraid of that. Since I retired/rebooted I have to do more and more of my own work. Ever try clean the grooves of a golf club? Not surprised I always gave Patrick that big bonus.
 
an capall said:
I was afraid of that. Since I retired/rebooted I have to do more and more of my own work. Ever try clean the grooves of a golf club? Not surprised I always gave Patrick that big bonus.
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Will you buy lunch on the 23rd in the Chop House if I do it for you? Serious offer.
 
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