Cheltenham Handicap Watch

Ah well good luck to them.

I have had another look and think I have found something even better in the pertemps. So happy days. See my Cheltenham blog post for more information!
 
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Have fired at three horses over the last few days. Still juice in the prices. All are confirmed targets so I was happy to take AP rules with Hills/Boyles.

Coral Cup
Birchdale 12/1 (Now 10/1)

County Hurdle
Aramon 16/1 (Hills)

Champion Bumper
Queens Brook 14/1 (11/1 Hills)
 
Slim said:
Coral Cup
Birchdale 12/1 (Now 10/1)
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I haven't studied this race but planned to back Hendo's in the handicaps, esp the Coral Cup and County Hurdle. Last year I backed (among several others) his two in both races (Burbank 50/1 and W Henry 33/1) and Countister and We Have A Dream who took the next two places behind Ch'tibello at decent prices. He definitely puts them away and Birchdale looks a typical plot. However, he has no fewer than twelve entries in the Coral Cup alone, of which maybe ten are maybe rated highly enough make the cut (might lose out on sheer eight of entry numbers but rated mid-130s and higher) and JP has 15 entries rated 135+.

I think it's fair to say whichever end up running for him just has to be taken very seriously, especially if BG rides.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I haven't studied this race but planned to back Hendo's in the handicaps, esp the Coral Cup and County Hurdle. Last year I backed (among several others) his two in both races (Burbank 50/1 and W Henry 33/1) and Countister and We Have A Dream who took the next two places behind Ch'tibello at decent prices. He definitely puts them away and Birchdale looks a typical plot. However, he has no fewer than twelve entries in the Coral Cup alone, of which maybe ten are maybe rated highly enough make the cut (might lose out on sheer eight of entry numbers but rated mid-130s and higher) and JP has 15 entries rated 135+.

I think it's fair to say whichever end up running for him just has to be taken very seriously, especially if BG rides.
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Trust me. Barry will be riding this.

He will have been off for 110 days next week. Nicky henderson has a 25.90% strike rate in the last 5 years with horse off 100+ days. This is more like an 11/2 shot at the off.
 
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Looking at his last run Oakley will be interesting if stepped in trip for the Coral Cup.

I am actually hoping they don't declare him this Saturday for the Imperial and hold him back for the Coral instead.
 
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Marb said:
Looking at his last run Oakley will be interesting if stepped in trip for the Coral Cup.

I am actually hoping they don't declare him this Saturday for the Imperial and hold him back for the Coral instead.
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That would be a mistake. The Coral is a very classy affair.
 
Slim said:
Have fired at three horses over the last few days. Still juice in the prices. All are confirmed targets so I was happy to take AP rules with Hills/Boyles.

Coral Cup
Birchdale 12/1 (Now 10/1)

County Hurdle
Aramon 16/1 (Hills)

Champion Bumper
Queens Brook 14/1 (11/1 Hills)
Click to expand...

Couldn't agree more Slim. I'm on all of these already, probably for similar reasons. I'm particularly heavily invested in Birchdale, and he would be a very big winner for me. I also have the Birchdale/Aramon ew double for a large return. Queens Brook has a Fayonagh feel about her.
 
Slim said:
Trust me. Barry will be riding this.

He will have been off for 110 days next week. Nicky henderson has a 25.90% strike rate in the last 5 years with horse off 100+ days. This is more like an 11/2 shot at the off.
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Totally get you but occasionally a JP second or third string comes up with the goods.
 
Slim said:
That would be a mistake. The Coral is a very classy affair.
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He is still very lightly raced though really, Slim. He has only had eight runs over hurdles. I think he can improve, but that improvement might come over a further distance.

The bookies have him at 25's for the coral and 40s for the county.

Good luck with your Birchdale bet but you could do worse than having a saver on Oakley if he ran there on the day.
 
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Marb said:
He is still very lightly raced though really, Slim. He has only had eight runs over hurdles. I think he can improve, but that improvement might come over a further distance.

The bookies have him at 25's for the coral and 40s for the county.

Good luck with your Birchdale bet but you could do worse than having a saver on Oakley if he ran there on the day.
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He'd be getting very close consideration in the Imperial Cup.
 
Glad others are on Aramon.

Posted him a few times in this thread for the County, was beginning to think I was the only one on him.

Birchdale I’m not sure of, to be honest the Coral isn’t a race Ive looked at properly yet, tends to be an absolute minefield. Think Gavin Lynch again put him up last week on ‘Upping the Ante’ (quite like him, seems a very fair judge)

Kilbricken Storm and Aramon are doubled, and in some other multis with Glenloe and Ilikedwayurthinkin :lol:
 
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Double J said:
Glad others are on Aramon.

Posted him a few times in this thread for the County, was beginning to think I was the only one on him.

Birchdale I’m not sure of, to be honest the Coral isn’t a race Ive looked at properly yet, tends to be an absolute minefield. Think Gavin Lynch again put him up last week on ‘Upping the Ante’ (quite like him, seems a very fair judge)

Kilbricken Storm and Aramon are doubled, and in some other multis with Glenloe and Ilikedwayurthinkin :lol:
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Gavin Lynch is a pain in the bollocks. He ruins the market.
 
Took my first look at the handicaps over the last couple of days. I haven't backed all of these yet, but I've backed most of them. I've given as much rationale as I could be arsed (1= minimum confidence, 5 = max confidence). :thumbsup:

Ultima Chase
Secret Investor (1) - 20/1
This one is still relatively unexposed, and whilst I wouldn't take the Denman Chase entirely at face value, it was his best run yet upped-in trip, and he might just be a bit progressive at 3m. Trainer has as bad a record as me in this though, which tempers enthusiasm greatly.

Novice 2m4 Handicap Chase
Espoir De Guye (4) - 10/1
His FTO form against Simply The Betts (who I have a lot of time for) reads well. Has won his last two head-in-chest, and could easily be ahead of this mark of 144. Trainer knows how to win a Festival handicap. The more I look at him, the more I like him.

Coral Cup
Thosedaysaregone (3) - 12/1
Trained by Charles Byrnes, and I'll row in with him any time, with an unexposed, progressive hurdler (please refer to Solwhit for further details). Wants held-up off a strong pace, and has big-field handicap experience. Trip a mild concern.

Fred Winter
Sir Phycho (1) - 10/1
Dunno. This one? Maybe Galahad Quest? Would need to look again, but...really?....who could be arsed?

Pertemps Final
A Great View (2) - 12/1
Cue Slim telling me I'm on the wrong McManus plot, but Paul McKenna couldn't have put this one to sleep any better than Walsh did at Punchestown in the Qualifier, and not impossible that this is one of the Great Man's many rats running at the meeting.

Festival Plate
Sirah Du Lac (1) - 16/1
Hard race to follow-up in, and needs forgiven the last two runs, but rather drawn to him at the price, for reasons I can't quite put my finger on.

Kim Muir
Diese Aba (1) - 16/1
Much the most progressive of those at the head of the betting. Confidence would increase with the booking of a good amateur.

County
Black Tears (2) - 20/1
Trainer doesn't have a great record in the race, but it will be run to suit, as gets a bit further than 2m. Ignore last run (doesn't go on Heavy).

Grand Annual
Jan Maat (3) - 20/1
Not sure if he's an intended runner, and trainer has yet to win this, but it's the kind of race he should do well in, given his expertise with chasers. Slowly progressing into a smart performer, and 142 in no way a harsh handicap mark.

Martin Pipe
Five O'Clock (5) - 14/1
Handicap compression will make this less punitive for the top-rated than it might otherwise have been (spread probably a half-dozen lbs), and I think Five O'Clock is a really progressive horse, who will simply have too many guns.
 
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