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Cheltenham Handicap Watch

I'm trusting Colm Murphy has given Relegate the requisite training plot for this and thought her how to jump

Value long gone but have a few pennies down on her since I heard she had moved late last year
 
granger said:
I'm trusting Colm Murphy has given Relegate the requisite training plot for this and thought her how to jump

Value long gone but have a few pennies down on her since I heard she had moved late last year
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Shane was all over it at 50s. Townend rides. JP involved...
 
There's one to be all over in the Grand Annual at 33/1 before the price collapses. Having been pointed to it you'll spot the formlines and the plot straightaway, and your eyes will immediately be drawn to a novice chase at Punchestown in January last year, and then all the way back to the Festival in 2017. After looking at both races you'll immediately realise that JP's Number 1 has been hidden away in plain view, in a race he absolutely targets and just loves to win.

With this one there's been no messing like Elliott does with his horses, trying to get him well handicapped only for the UK Handicapper to whack on a huge rise in mark. No the master owner thinks it's better to plot the mark down in Ireland, change trainer to the UK earlier in the season so it goes unnoticed, and then run it down the field in the UK to get a further 4lbs off. After all that, the mid to high 150's horse that should be running in graded races, is now running off 144 and ludicrously well in.

It may require a leap of faith based on recent performances, but given the owner in question I'm sure you'll forgive some of the more recent form. Especially if he's had the chance to be given some Martinstown vitamins. Step forward Winter Escape who 'will win' the Grand Annual. :cool:
 
Maruco said:
There's one to be all over in the Grand Annual at 33/1 before the price collapses. Having been pointed to it you'll spot the formlines and the plot straightaway, and your eyes will immediately be drawn to a novice chase at Punchestown in January last year, and then all the way back to the Festival in 2017. After looking at both races you'll immediately realise that JP's Number 1 has been hidden away in plain view, in a race he absolutely targets and just loves to win.

With this one there's been no messing like Elliott does with his horses, trying to get him well handicapped only for the UK Handicapper to whack on a huge rise in mark. No the master owner thinks it's better to plot the mark down in Ireland, change trainer to the UK earlier in the season so it goes unnoticed, and then run it down the field in the UK to get a further 4lbs off. After all that, the mid to high 150's horse that should be running in graded races, is now running off 144 and ludicrously well in.

It may require a leap of faith based on recent performances, but given the owner in question I'm sure you'll forgive some of the more recent form. Especially if he's had the chance to be given some Martinstown vitamins. Step forward Winter Escape who 'will win' the Grand Annual. :cool:
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Absolutely my kind of thinking, Maruco :)

Surely one for the Longshot thread?
 
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Maruco said:
There's one to be all over in the Grand Annual at 33/1 before the price collapses. Having been pointed to it you'll spot the formlines and the plot straightaway, and your eyes will immediately be drawn to a novice chase at Punchestown in January last year, and then all the way back to the Festival in 2017. After looking at both races you'll immediately realise that JP's Number 1 has been hidden away in plain view, in a race he absolutely targets and just loves to win.

With this one there's been no messing like Elliott does with his horses, trying to get him well handicapped only for the UK Handicapper to whack on a huge rise in mark. No the master owner thinks it's better to plot the mark down in Ireland, change trainer to the UK earlier in the season so it goes unnoticed, and then run it down the field in the UK to get a further 4lbs off. After all that, the mid to high 150's horse that should be running in graded races, is now running off 144 and ludicrously well in.

It may require a leap of faith based on recent performances, but given the owner in question I'm sure you'll forgive some of the more recent form. Especially if he's had the chance to be given some Martinstown vitamins. Step forward Winter Escape who 'will win' the Grand Annual. :cool:
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Thought Brelan D’as could have been the one for this, Absoutly see your logic though, and could be a very good call.

The resident JP fanatic will no doubt tell you you’re right or wrong.
 
Double J said:
Thought Brelan D’as could have been the one for this, Absoutly see your logic though, and could be a very good call.

The resident JP fanatic will no doubt tell you you’re right or wrong.
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Brelan D'as best winning rating over two miles is 136 JJ, and while he went close off that mark last year he couldn't win it. He's seven pounds higher this year , and while he runs well at Cheltenham, his best race this season was in heavy ground (they called it soft), over two and half miles. I can see him running a decent race but he's surely going to be beaten by something well in and with a better turn of foot. He's not unexposed and looks more like a placer than a winner to me.
 
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Maruco said:
Brelan D'as best winning rating over two miles is 136 JJ, and while he went close off that mark last year he couldn't win it. He's seven pounds higher this year , and while he runs well at Cheltenham, his best race this season was in heavy ground (they called it soft), over two and half miles. I can see him running a decent race but he's surely going to be beaten by something well in and with a better turn of foot. He's not unexposed and looks more like a placer than a winner to me.
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Looks like I’m wrong.

Brelan D’as to the Plate were he is 33/1 according to Nicholls stable tour.
 
Maruco said:
There's one to be all over in the Grand Annual at 33/1 before the price collapses. Having been pointed to it you'll spot the formlines and the plot straightaway, and your eyes will immediately be drawn to a novice chase at Punchestown in January last year, and then all the way back to the Festival in 2017. After looking at both races you'll immediately realise that JP's Number 1 has been hidden away in plain view, in a race he absolutely targets and just loves to win.

With this one there's been no messing like Elliott does with his horses, trying to get him well handicapped only for the UK Handicapper to whack on a huge rise in mark. No the master owner thinks it's better to plot the mark down in Ireland, change trainer to the UK earlier in the season so it goes unnoticed, and then run it down the field in the UK to get a further 4lbs off. After all that, the mid to high 150's horse that should be running in graded races, is now running off 144 and ludicrously well in.

It may require a leap of faith based on recent performances, but given the owner in question I'm sure you'll forgive some of the more recent form. Especially if he's had the chance to be given some Martinstown vitamins. Step forward Winter Escape who 'will win' the Grand Annual. :cool:
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The only McManus horse I plan to back in this is Great Field.....mainly because I would absolutely puke if he won without carrying any of my money.

All I need is £25K on at 20/1, and I might break even over my QMCC ante-post bets over the years, the clumsy-arsed bast*ard.
 
I've done some more research on races I hadn't covered enough.

At The Acorn for Tony Martin.

I am sure someone has mentioned him already, anyway he is strongly entered up in four races next week and one of the market leaders for the Kim Muir. He is potentially very well handicapped to land a big punt for a trainer who likes to do it over and over again.

That's the Kim Muir sorted.
 
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Marb said:
I've done some more research on races I hadn't covered enough.

At The Acorn for Tony Martin.

I am sure someone has mentioned him already, anyway he is strongly entered up in four races next week and one of the market leaders for the Kim Muir. He is potentially very well handicapped to land a big punt for a trainer who likes to do it over and over again.

That's the Kim Muir sorted.
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Needs 30 horses to drop out
 
What do you think then? Can the 30 drop out?

He is 54 on the list. It's possible a few will drop out.

We will find out on Tuesday won't we. 48 hour decs.

He"s also in the novice handicap chase on Tuesday. He needs loads to come out of that.

He is three times the price for that race and probably rightly so.

His effort last time reads quite well in terms of Any Second Now, a fancied horse for the Grand National finishing in third.

I reckon it bodes well for At The Acorn stepping up in distance.
 
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Thats a confidence booster, DO. Cheers.

He was badly hampered the last day aswell, but stayed on nicely nevertheless.

Slim talks about big gambles in the green and gold.

I feel this could be a big gamble not in the green and gold.
 
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Looking through the list of horses in the Ultima, and what's likely to hold their ground I think it's unlikely The Conditional will get in. If he doesn't I presume he'll be switched to the Kim Muir. They'll certainly be planning for it you'd think. Any thoughts on who may get the ride if does end up in the amateur race?
 
Marb said:
I've done some more research on races I hadn't covered enough.

At The Acorn for Tony Martin.

I am sure someone has mentioned him already, anyway he is strongly entered up in four races next week and one of the market leaders for the Kim Muir. He is potentially very well handicapped to land a big punt for a trainer who likes to do it over and over again.

That's the Kim Muir sorted.
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Won't get a run. Irish National.
 

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