Cheltenham Handicaps

These marks are important for the National Hunt Chase too. Escaria Ten might end up there if yesterday's run takes him out of a handicap winning mark. That is turning into a very deep race.
 
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Slim said:
These marks are important for the National Hunt Chase too. Escaria Ten might end up there if yesterday's run takes him out of a handicap winning mark. That is turning into a very deep race.
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Which makes me ever more confident Royal Pagellie goes Gold Cup despite some ridiculing the idea.

My arse is twitching re Wide Reciever. Backing him in singles and multiples from 25s downwards. Seems everyones cottoned on now though and he seems too glaringly obvious. Grand Roi could throw a spanner in them works. When will their marks be published?
 
I put up potential ORs for the Elliot horses in the thread that was merged but the post seems to have been lost in the move. It's showing in my activity log but when I click on 'See more..' it isn't there when the thread comes up.

Any way of recovering it?
 
It has disappeared but this is what you posted Mo

I reckon:

Coko Beach 153
Escaria Ten 147
Roaring Bull 147
Run Wild Fred 149
Eskylane 135
Glorious Zoff 130 (gotta be worth a saver... :D)
Grand Roi 154
Riviere D'etel 130
 
Diamond Geezer said:
It has disappeared but this is what you posted Mo

I reckon:

Coko Beach 153
Escaria Ten 147
Roaring Bull 147
Run Wild Fred 149
Eskylane 135
Glorious Zoff 130 (gotta be worth a saver... :D)
Grand Roi 154
Riviere D'etel 130
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Thanks for this and for merging the threads
 
Slim, I'm disappointed...

:lol:

Just shows how very much younger than us oul' yins you are!
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Slim, I'm disappointed...

:lol:

Just shows how very much younger than us oul' yins you are!
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Oh FFS. UNSUBSCRIBE. :lol:

You had me excited, that looks a right mark. You have the chssers out of the Kim Muir which is what I was expecting..
 
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Diamond Geezer said:
It has disappeared but this is what you posted Mo

I reckon:

Coko Beach 153
Escaria Ten 147
Roaring Bull 147
Run Wild Fred 149
Eskylane 135
Glorious Zoff 130 (gotta be worth a saver... :D)
Grand Roi 154
Riviere D'etel 130
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Mo,

If Grand Roi was not handicapped literally on the weekend and was given 145 what would you think?
 
Without digging too deep to check how literally the form can be taken, I'd reckon it would be up to placing in its chosen handicap but I wouldn't dream of committing before checking more thoroughly.
 
I make it 4lbs (unless I've miscounted).

For four lengths at the trip in the ground, I reckon it would bring them very close. At the trip in heavy I reckon 4lbs equates to 7-8 lengths. It wouldn't allow for different rates of improvement.
 
Run Wild Fred was receiving 2lb in the Thyestes DO so he’d only be 2lb better off.

He looked like he’d maybe get closer over further but in terms of potential improvement, Coko Beach traveled and jumped like the much better horse so it’ll depend on how literal the handicapper takes the winning distance.

I’d personally have 7 or 8 lb between them and think 149 may be a touch high. If that is the case and were the NH Chase still a handicap, that would have me worried as it’d be closer over that trip if RWF can improve his jumping.

But off levels I’m happy with Coko Beach although if they want to bring Fred over to Cheltenham then, while he’d sneak into the Kim Muir off 145 I’m not sure I’d want to back him off top weight in that so they’d be forced into a first day rematch, assuming that’s where Coko goes.
 
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Somewhere along the line my brain has gone into fart overdrive.

I'll go back over the figures again today but you're right, wilsonl (and Slim) about the 2lbs. I would have it at 4lbs myself but the Irish handicapper is on the same wavelength as you, wilsonl. He's got 10lbs between them on the new ORs, 150 & 140) so 8lbs for four lengths. That must definitely be tempting for the latter should a rematch look like materialising.

I suspect the UK handicapper will add a little on.
 
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Yeah my estimation of 145 is when the BHA add on their tax and we'll find out on Thursday (?) what that'll be.

Something like 153 and 145 (which would be my guess) gives them the option of splitting the two as Coko Beach would be ruled out of the handicap so unless they want to finish midfield in the 3m G1 he has to go NH Chase but Run Wild Fred could go Kim Muir. But as I said earlier, he's not the biggest, or the best of jumpers so I wouldn't be keen on him with 11st 10lb in that.

Again, all that is assuming they both come over.
 
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Coko Beach +12 (150)Damalisque +12 (135)Elimay +5 (152)Enjoy D'Allen +9 (136)Rebel Gold +8 (140)Riviere D'etel (133) *NEWRun Wild Fred +4 (140)Street Value +11 (120)Thedevilscoachman (137) *NEWTorygraph +5 (137)Visionarian +3 (123)Selected Irish handicap ammendments.
 
I can't really see Coko Beach going anywhere near the NH Chase. Elliot already has Galvin, probably at least a 10lbs better horse, for that, and a good thing if Royale Pagaille goes for the Gold Cup.

I half imagine Coko Beach already being campaigned for something next season, given that he's only six. Maybe a 'smaller' National with Aintree as an 8yo. I wouldn't be surprised to see him dossing about in Pertemps qualifiers for the next couple of seasons.

Edit - just checked Elliot's Thyestes record. Only won it once before, with Monbeg Notorious. He followed up a month later in a Naas novice chase but never showed any form again other than taking a weak, duff race at Dromore last March, and that was probably one of those races that turns out to be no more than a public gallop for non-triers. By then his OR had come down to 140 but he only got RPR 135 for winning.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I can't really see Coko Beach going anywhere near the NH Chase. Elliot already has Galvin, probably at least a 10lbs better horse, for that, and a good thing if Royale Pagaille goes for the Gold Cup.

I half imagine Coko Beach already being campaigned for something next season, given that he's only six. Maybe a 'smaller' National with Aintree as an 8yo. I wouldn't be surprised to see him dossing about in Pertemps qualifiers for the next couple of seasons.

Edit - just checked Elliot's Thyestes record. Only won it once before, with Monbeg Notorious. He followed up a month later in a Naas novice chase but never showed any form again other than taking a weak, duff race at Dromore last March, and that was probably one of those races that turns out to be no more than a public gallop for non-triers. By then his OR had come down to 140 but he only got RPR 135 for winning.
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IHRB has only a 1lb between Galvin and Coko Beach, which means you either think the Theystyes form has been hugely overrated and everything needs downgrading or that Galvin is a 160 horse, in which case it's him that should be avoiding the NH Chase, and running in the Festival novices.

Edit: Just checked and Galvin is actually entered for the G1 so if he does want to keep them apart... :ninja:
 
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UK ratings in red, new Irish ones in green (why not):

Coko Beach 153 150 150
Escaria Ten 147 140 no rating
Roaring Bull 147 140 139
Run Wild Fred 149 140 140
Eskylane 135 135 133
Glorious Zoff 130 131 no rating
Grand Roi 154 146 145
Riviere D'etel 130 133 133

Looks like the Thyestes form has been assessed jointly by the Irish and UK handicappers. My 'guesses' for the hurdlers are much closer to the mark with the notable exception of Grand Roi. I imagine they'll be very encouraged by that one's mark.

If these are an indication of what might happen come the festival, there is every reason to believe the Irish will do a clean sweep of the handicaps.
 
Desert Orchid said:
UK ratings in red, new Irish ones in green (why not):

Coko Beach 153 150 150
Escaria Ten 147 140 no rating
Roaring Bull 147 140 139
Run Wild Fred 149 140 140
Eskylane 135 135 133
Glorious Zoff 130 131 no rating
Grand Roi 154 146 145
Riviere D'etel 130 133 133

Looks like the Thyestes form has been assessed jointly by the Irish and UK handicappers. My 'guesses' for the hurdlers are much closer to the mark with the notable exception of Grand Roi. I imagine they'll be very encouraged by that one's mark.

If these are an indication of what might happen come the festival, there is every reason to believe the Irish will do a clean sweep of the handicaps.
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The Escaria Ten doesn't include the Sunday run. He can forget the Kim Muir.
 
I think he is too slow for the Kim Muir around there. He is more of a welsh/midlands/Irish national type, jumps well in bad ground. In any other stable he would be going for the NH Chase.
 
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