You could well be right and the minimum he gets into the Kim Muir off is 145. Those backing him into 6/1 have lost their mind.
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Cheltenham Handicaps
- Thread starter Double J
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You could well be right and the minimum he gets into the Kim Muir off is 145. Those backing him into 6/1 have lost their mind.
I make you correct.
Diamond Geezer
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John McConnell who has won 3/4 at Cheltenham this season has also entered 3 horses.
Escaria will be revised to 145 and will get in. Run Wild Fred 140, and Roaring Bull 140 makes a nap hand in the Kim Muir for Gordon.
Coko Beach on 150 is a steal for the Ultima.
Glorius Zoff 131 and Riviere D'etel 133 are ridiculously low.
Esklylane will be thrown in for the Pipe.
The only one I don't particualalry like is Grand Roi.
Gordon has completley had it away.
No chance Escaria will be 145.
I got caught by this today. The punters who bet him from 16/1 in to 6/1 thought he was on 140. It sickens me to see lads get it wrong and still get paid.
Thats why Escaria was so so short. An absolute sea of blue on Oddschecker. Thought i was missing something.
And in missing that, there goes my Run Wild Fred bets.
Has no rating on the BHA website and he’s down as his IHRB rating on the RP’s 5 day entries for Musselburgh, strangely at the bottom of the card despite it being in OR order.
Where is the 145 info from ?
Desert Orchid
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I suspect he's at the bottom of the card for one or more of three reasons:
1. He isn't actually qualified for the race.
2. They're awaiting confirmation of his rating.
3. It's just a tech blip.
His new 145 OR won't kick in until next week as it will become official on Tuesday so, assuming he is qualified to run on Saturday, he'll be off his old mark.
Maruco says the 145 has been confirmed by the BHA so there must be evidence out there.
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Thanks DO.
I'm aware his figure won't be official until next week given the race was run on Sunday in Ireland so it's the "must be evidence out there" but I'm intrigued about as I always use the IRHB and BHA for ratings, or the RP race-card at declaration stage for the Irish runners with hitherto unpublished BHA figures, so if there's a way to establish the information earlier I'd like to know how.
Maybe the IRHB and BHA handicappers jointly assessed the race and the BHA handicapper has blogged or tweeted it somewhere ?
I'm aware his figure won't be official until next week given the race was run on Sunday in Ireland so it's the "must be evidence out there" but I'm intrigued about as I always use the IRHB and BHA for ratings, or the RP race-card at declaration stage for the Irish runners with hitherto unpublished BHA figures, so if there's a way to establish the information earlier I'd like to know how.
Maybe the IRHB and BHA handicappers jointly assessed the race and the BHA handicapper has blogged or tweeted it somewhere ?
DUBLIN RACING FESTIVAL KEY CHELTENHAM POINTERS
2 of the past 3 Weatherbys Champion Bumper winners won one of the G2 bumpers at this meeting
3 winners in 4 years between 2015 – 2018 completed the Irish Arkle – Cheltenham double (all trained by Willie Mullins)
Hurricane Fly (2013) is the last Irish Champion Hurdle winner to win the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham
Since the race changed distance (2m) 2 of the 3 winners of the Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle won at the Cheltenham Festival
5 of the 7 Triumph Hurdle winners between 2012 – 2018 contested the Spring Juvenile Hurdle (only 1 was successful)
4 of the 5 winners of the Festival Novices’ Chase (formerly the RSA) between 2009 – 2013 finished in the first three of the Flogas Novice Chase
Only 2 Gold Cup winners this century ran in the Irish Gold Cup (1 was successful)
Paul Ferguson, Weatherbys
2 of the past 3 Weatherbys Champion Bumper winners won one of the G2 bumpers at this meeting
3 winners in 4 years between 2015 – 2018 completed the Irish Arkle – Cheltenham double (all trained by Willie Mullins)
Hurricane Fly (2013) is the last Irish Champion Hurdle winner to win the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham
Since the race changed distance (2m) 2 of the 3 winners of the Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle won at the Cheltenham Festival
5 of the 7 Triumph Hurdle winners between 2012 – 2018 contested the Spring Juvenile Hurdle (only 1 was successful)
4 of the 5 winners of the Festival Novices’ Chase (formerly the RSA) between 2009 – 2013 finished in the first three of the Flogas Novice Chase
Only 2 Gold Cup winners this century ran in the Irish Gold Cup (1 was successful)
Paul Ferguson, Weatherbys
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Desert Orchid
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Yes, I would go with something along those lines. Maruco must have seen it. He's not the type to make stuff up
No. That's his old mark.
If he were to run on Saturday (which he's clearly not going to) then yes, it's officially 140 but his mark is yet to be officially revised (next Tuesday) as his last run is classed as "this week". Although it seems to have been confirmed by the BHA that it's gone up to 145.
It's his revised mark we're interested in.
If he were to run on Saturday (which he's clearly not going to) then yes, it's officially 140 but his mark is yet to be officially revised (next Tuesday) as his last run is classed as "this week". Although it seems to have been confirmed by the BHA that it's gone up to 145.
It's his revised mark we're interested in.
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The McNeill's have had it confirmed by the UK handicapper that Escaria Ten's revised handicap taking Sunday into account will be 145. It'll only go up if there's any collateral form to change it which seems highly unlikely now.
I can't publish on here where I have it from, but it's definitely correct.
As Slim suggested, many people who jumped on a price bandwagon yesterday got very lucky. Handicap marks are assessed Sunday to Saturday, and becuase he ran on sunday, officially Escaria Ten's mark of 145 won't be published until next Monday.
I can't publish on here where I have it from, but it's definitely correct.
As Slim suggested, many people who jumped on a price bandwagon yesterday got very lucky. Handicap marks are assessed Sunday to Saturday, and becuase he ran on sunday, officially Escaria Ten's mark of 145 won't be published until next Monday.
The letter is on Twitter if you search for it.
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Desert Orchid
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... probably reinvesting some of his winnings from Dame De Compagnie in last year's Coral Cup.
Desert Orchid
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The bookies aren't giving much away in the Grand Annual so I'm holding off on one I've landed on this evening for a wee while but I'll give it a mention now. I went looking for 33/1 or better this evening but 16s NRNB I can leave for the moment.
I've checked back through the Shishkin race from Saturday and I'm coming up with very big figures. I think he's already past the post in the Arkle but Saturday's race also throws up Eldorado Allen in a very good light with the Grand Annual in mind. The handicapper has left Shishkin alone on 162, which I think is a big mistake but his hands are tied by BHA handicapping procedures. It also means he leaves Eldorado Allen on 149 and I reckon that kind of mark would put him very much in the picture for the race.
The pace distribution for Saturday points to an over-fast race so Eldorado Allen can arguably be marked up for running inefficiently yet still posting a very fast time rating on my figures and he actually kept on quite well up the run-in.
Obviously I'd be sh1t scared of some of the Irish plots but Eldorado Allen is very firmly on my radar now.
I've checked back through the Shishkin race from Saturday and I'm coming up with very big figures. I think he's already past the post in the Arkle but Saturday's race also throws up Eldorado Allen in a very good light with the Grand Annual in mind. The handicapper has left Shishkin alone on 162, which I think is a big mistake but his hands are tied by BHA handicapping procedures. It also means he leaves Eldorado Allen on 149 and I reckon that kind of mark would put him very much in the picture for the race.
The pace distribution for Saturday points to an over-fast race so Eldorado Allen can arguably be marked up for running inefficiently yet still posting a very fast time rating on my figures and he actually kept on quite well up the run-in.
Obviously I'd be sh1t scared of some of the Irish plots but Eldorado Allen is very firmly on my radar now.
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Tizzard and Power would put me off that one DO. A horse i like as well.
He's put in two desperate runs. Once over hurdles last February and one at Ascot this season. He also ran no race at the festival last albeit from too high a mark. If he shows up and travels the way he does at his best fair enough but I could neither trust the ******* nor believe there isn't ten in Ireland better handicapped.
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Desert Orchid
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Tizzard I don't mind, DJ. Power is usually a negative for me unless riding for Harrington, so I take those points but it was JJON Jr aboard the other day.
I didn't check back through his individual runs last season, Slim, so can't comment on those for now. However, he was a 152 [OR] hurdler so could easily have been expected to make up into a 160+ novice chaser. My figure for him the other day suggests he's there but he's off 149.
I haven't backed him yet so haven't done ma dough but right now I do want him onside.
I didn't check back through his individual runs last season, Slim, so can't comment on those for now. However, he was a 152 [OR] hurdler so could easily have been expected to make up into a 160+ novice chaser. My figure for him the other day suggests he's there but he's off 149.
I haven't backed him yet so haven't done ma dough but right now I do want him onside.