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Cheltenham Handicaps

Maruco said:
JP showed him the way last year. Two novice entries. Take your pick.

I've backed both nrnb, and the more I look at them I prefer the outsider of the two.
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If you mean Micro Manage I'm struggling to see how he can run.
 
I'm liking the look of the Gordon Elliot, JP horse in the County, called Magic Tricks.

I feel the English handicapper may give him 2 or 3 lbs more than his official Irish mark, which is 132.

That should help make the cut.
 
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Haven’t looked at the County yet, but I have managed to whittle it down to a shortlist of 26 in the Coral Cup.
 
He is Outsider, though he - along with about 90% of the field - also holds Pipe Conditionals entry. Figuring out what might run where, will be part of today’s endeavours.
 
There is a Pertemps qualifier on Monday at Punchestown..Having looked it over I think there is one with the right profile, weight, and dosage to fit into the plot category, He does hold a Pertemps Cheltenham entry too.

Milliner.

As far as his dosage goes, Milliner has a complete (every box) Identical match to Kayf Aramis who won the Pertemps. His profile placement on my charts have him surrounded by the likes of; Kadoun (Ptmps), Rubhahunish (Ptmps), Shuil Ar Aghaidh (Stayers hdl), Dorans Pride (Stayers hdl), Trapper john (Stayers hdl), Karshi (Stayers hdl), Anzio (Stayers hdl), Racing Demon, Bacardy's and Westender.

He has a rating of 121 Irish..could protract to 125 English so he would need to win with a bit of swagger to get a 10Lb penalty that's probably needed to scrape in.

Ran an eye-catching 5th of 20 over an inadequate trip at Navan behind Damalisque after a 762-day absence, which would point to a longer distance being of some benefit.

It's a decent size field on Monday, with many others attempting to do the same thing, so he could be a decent price to start with, being a must-win trier!
 
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Interesting, Max.

I've now got provisional selections for most of the handicaps, the only two I haven't got names for yet is the Pertemps and Grand Annual, so I'll keep a check on this one.
 
Maxbet said:
There is a Pertemps qualifier on Monday at Punchestown..Having looked it over I think there is one with the right profile, weight, and dosage to fit into the plot category, He does hold a Pertemps Cheltenham entry too.

Milliner.

As far as his dosage goes, Milliner has a complete (every box) Identical match to Kayf Aramis who won the Pertemps. His profile placement on my charts have him surrounded by the likes of; Kadoun (Ptmps), Rubhahunish (Ptmps), Shuil Ar Aghaidh (Stayers hdl), Dorans Pride (Stayers hdl), Trapper john (Stayers hdl), Karshi (Stayers hdl), Anzio (Stayers hdl), Racing Demon, Bacardy's and Westender.

He has a rating of 121 Irish..could protract to 125 English so he would need to win with a bit of swagger to get a 10Lb penalty that's probably needed to scrape in.

Ran an eye-catching 5th of 20 over an inadequate trip at Navan behind Damalisque after a 762-day absence, which would point to a longer distance being of some benefit.

It's a decent size field on Monday, with many others attempting to do the same thing, so he could be a decent price to start with, being a must-win trier!
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Good luck with that one, Maxbet.

Can I add a caveat?

Let's go with your figures for now and say he's GB 125. He'll need to win by 10 lengths or have them spread out Linda Lovelace style to go up 10lbs to make the cut.

This means he'll need to be a 145 horse in reality to win at Cheltenham, given how competitive the final is.

That would ring alarm bells for me since there are plenty already likely to make the cut that will be 10lbs better than their mark as it is.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Good luck with that one, Maxbet.

Can I add a caveat?

Let's go with your figures for now and say he's GB 125. He'll need to win by 10 lengths or have them spread out Linda Lovelace style to go up 10lbs to make the cut.

This means he'll need to be a 145 horse in reality to win at Cheltenham, given how competitive the final is.

That would ring alarm bells for me since there are plenty already likely to make the cut that will be 10lbs better than their mark as it is.
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edit: 133 scraped in last year!

20/1 nrnb...

And he's worth a punt on Monday:whistle: This one has escaped the clear out, so must have shown some promise..
 
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Mondy is the day to back him. He'll be trying, and based on what he does you can probably roll-up to the Pertemps if you want to, and the combined returns would most likley be bigger.

He's a good spot in a Pertemps Qualifier, for a horse that needs to be all out to win.
 
I've had Zoffenien on my radar for the Boodles handicap hurdle since I looked at the race on Friday night.

I didn't actually know he was running today in a handicap hurdle, where he's absolutely hacked up.

I don't think it would be far fetched to say he's a big challenger for the Irish contingent in that race at the festival, and will probably keep shortening in the betting market too.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Soaring Glory will go up to about 141 for the other day.
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141 would have been an 8lbs rise. The BHA can be conservative in these big handicaps, which I was anticipating, but they've put him up 10lbs so they clearly think the form is very strong (which it is).
 
Maruco said:
Mondy is the day to back him. He'll be trying, and based on what he does you can probably roll-up to the Pertemps if you want to, and the combined returns would most likley be bigger.

He's a good spot in a Pertemps Qualifier, for a horse that needs to be all out to win.
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Had a decent bet on this. Could not agree more with your summary.
 
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Slim said:
Had a decent bet on this. Could not agree more with your summary.
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I had a good bet too. Took 15/2 e/w to 5 places with Skybet....looked the winner most of the way. I thought Blackmore went a shade too early.

From an initial drift after the opening show 7/9's, he was steadily backed down to 5/2 in places throughout the day.

Nice edit that DO...Though
 
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So we think Milner still has a live chance in the pertemps then guys? Even though it was beaten yesterday?

Honest question. I haven't backed him yet.
 
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Marb said:
So we think Milner still has a live chance in the pertemps then guys? Even though it was beaten yesterday?

Honest question. I haven't backed him yet.
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Needed to pick up a sizeable penalty!

I think the ground was against him yesterday, will improve for another run and softer ground. There could have been an element of bounce too. (2nd run after a 762-day absence) but time wasn't on their side!
 
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