Cheltenham Race Reviews

simmo said:
I don't get why we're baiting marb over this. Effectively, he tipped up a 50-1 shot that finished second - worthy of the long shot thread if you ask me.
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I agree, to be honest. It was a good early spot at the odds but with no realistic chance of winning either race.
 
granger said:
Now that we knows he stays and will have some more fun around hurdling

What can they plot him for on his return to chasing?
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Best case scenario he gets 150 or at a real push 148/149. Paddy Power Chase an obvious target. His trainer is seriously shrewd so if he does go back over fences expect there to be a rock solid plan in place.
 
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Are we still talking about Ronald Pump?

I'd have thought his hurdling improvement was partly down to appreciating getting away from the bigger obstacles.

He's unlikely to get a chasing mark in the UK less than 156, I'd have thought. They might need to put him away for at least a year to is mark down. He'd have a lot of G2/3 staying hurdles at his mercy as well as the odd weak G1 in which he could be competitive.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Are we still talking about Ronald Pump?

I'd have thought his hurdling improvement was partly down to appreciating getting away from the bigger obstacles.

He's unlikely to get a chasing mark in the UK less than 156, I'd have thought. They might need to put him away for at least a year to is mark down. He'd have a lot of G2/3 staying hurdles at his mercy as well as the odd weak G1 in which he could be competitive.
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His form over fences is pathetic.
 
Grasshopper said:
Ronald Pump has had 16 hurdles outings, and has found his level. Don't know where you think any improvement is going to come from that would justify a ++, Maruco.

The Stayers remains a turd of a race, and all of the principals are massively vulnerable next season, imo.
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Because of how much ground he lost in the race and the fact that I could have rated the race up to 5lb better than I did Nick. He was definitely capable of a better performance with a clear passage, and with a better round of jumping. With either I suspect he would have won, and if both were smooth my feeling is he would have won with something in hand. The official handicapper has Lisnager Oscar on 161. I have Ronald Pump on a conservative 156 at this stage. Also for perspective I backed the winner and didn't have a penny on Ronald Pump so I'm applying no betting bias towards Ronal Pump.

For info I held a mark on Lisnager Oscar a full ten pounds higher from the Cleeve than the OH. I also had a + against that run because I believed that he could have won the race ahead of Paisley Park and Summerville Boy if Adam Wedge had timed his run in bad ground better. I was, and am still, convinced that Lisnager Oscar is better than he is being given credit for. Therefore I have to hold the same position with Ronald Pump.

In terms of horses being vulnerable, I don't disagree. I think with normal progression Thyme Hill can go to the top of the tree. He was unlucky in running in the Albert Bartlett and with luck on his side he would have gone very close to winning. Given he's from a stable that was horribly out of form during the Festival he can be marked up anyway.

I expect the Irish horses filling the first three places from the Bartlett will go chasing, but if either of Cobblers Way or Harry Senior (both pulled up) stay hurdling I'll be watching them with interest.

Easywork is another of interest if he stays over hurdles up in trip. He needs to learn to settle though. I thought he ran a remarkable race given the amount of petrol he wasted, so I'd have no doubt he'd get further.

And I really like Sire Du Berlais. He's not built to jump a fence so he definitely stays hurdling. A true run Stayers would suit him down to the ground, and JP is plenty smart enough to put something in there to make sure it's a thorough test. There is no current horse better equipped to be switched off and then creep in to contention down the hill before pouncing after the last than SDB.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
True, but I'm not sure that will matter immediately to the UK handicapper, rightly or wrongly.
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Grand pots to be won in Ireland. Paddy Power (€110k) and Thystes (€59k). Anyway the trainer is really shrewd, like I said, so I would trust him to find the best path for this beast. Now I will never mention the horse again...
 
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Maruco said:
For info I held a mark on Lisnager Oscar a full ten pounds higher from the Cleeve than the OH. I also had a + against that run because I believed that he could have won the race ahead of Paisley Park and Summerville Boy if Adam Wedge had timed his run in bad ground better. I was, and am still, convinced that Lisnager Oscar is better than he is being given credit for. Therefore I have to hold the same position with Ronald Pump.

In terms of horses being vulnerable, I don't disagree. I think with normal progression Thyme Hill can go to the top of the tree. He was unlucky in running in the Albert Bartlett and with luck on his side he would have gone very close to winning. Given he's from a stable that was horribly out of form during the Festival he can be marked up anyway.
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Interesting take. Interesting to see how this plays out next season.

Completely agree about Thyme Hill.
 
Slim said:
Anyway the trainer is really shrewd, like I said, so I would trust him to find the best path for this beast. Now I will never mention the horse again...
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I'll need to take your word about the trainer's shrewdness but it looked to me like Cheltenham was merely an afterthought for you-know-who.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'll need to take your word about the trainer's shrewdness but it looked to me like Cheltenham was merely an afterthought for you-know-who.
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In handicaps in Ireland in 2019 he was 14-74 (20.27%) which was the best record among trainers with at least 50 runners. I used to see what they bet when I worked in PP at they rarely were far off the mark and mostly collected.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Friday

Martin Pipe - Probably fair enough form given the lines with Indefatigable and Dame De Compagnie but maybe a wee plot just missed out with The Bosses Oscar for whom nothing went right and he wasn't beaten at all far. Mill Green also deserves mention - as does his jockey's perseverance - as he was detached and scrubbed along from the off before flying up the hill but I suspect there may have been a bit of a pace collapse as Indefatigable had looked well held turning for home.
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Third top weight in a row to win this race
 
Maruco said:
Because of how much ground he lost in the race and the fact that I could have rated the race up to 5lb better than I did Nick. He was definitely capable of a better performance with a clear passage, and with a better round of jumping. With either I suspect he would have won, and if both were smooth my feeling is he would have won with something in hand. The official handicapper has Lisnager Oscar on 161. I have Ronald Pump on a conservative 156 at this stage. Also for perspective I backed the winner and didn't have a penny on Ronald Pump so I'm applying no betting bias towards Ronal Pump.

For info I held a mark on Lisnager Oscar a full ten pounds higher from the Cleeve than the OH. I also had a + against that run because I believed that he could have won the race ahead of Paisley Park and Summerville Boy if Adam Wedge had timed his run in bad ground better. I was, and am still, convinced that Lisnager Oscar is better than he is being given credit for. Therefore I have to hold the same position with Ronald Pump.

In terms of horses being vulnerable, I don't disagree. I think with normal progression Thyme Hill can go to the top of the tree. He was unlucky in running in the Albert Bartlett and with luck on his side he would have gone very close to winning. Given he's from a stable that was horribly out of form during the Festival he can be marked up anyway.

I expect the Irish horses filling the first three places from the Bartlett will go chasing, but if either of Cobblers Way or Harry Senior (both pulled up) stay hurdling I'll be watching them with interest.

Easywork is another of interest if he stays over hurdles up in trip. He needs to learn to settle though. I thought he ran a remarkable race given the amount of petrol he wasted, so I'd have no doubt he'd get further.

And I really like Sire Du Berlais. He's not built to jump a fence so he definitely stays hurdling. A true run Stayers would suit him down to the ground, and JP is plenty smart enough to put something in there to make sure it's a thorough test. There is no current horse better equipped to be switched off and then creep in to contention down the hill before pouncing after the last than SDB.
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I couldn't have that race rated early-160's if I spent the rest of my life assessing it, tbh.

Sometimes the Championship races just aren't. The Gold Cup apart (and maybe the Champion Hurdle), I think the others fell short of what you'd ordinarily be looking for/expecting, and the Stayers fell well short of standard (imo).

Each to their own.
 
Grasshopper said:
I couldn't have that race rated early-160's if I spent the rest of my life assessing it, tbh.

Sometimes the Championship races just aren't. The Gold Cup apart (and maybe the Champion Hurdle), I think the others fell short of what you'd ordinarily be looking for/expecting, and the Stayers fell well short of standard (imo).
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That was my immediate reaction to the race and I started with assuming LO ran to around 150 and looked at rating the rest accordingly. Even the sectionals pointed to a race falling apart.

However, once I explored a few more angles I could see how another interpretation could be justified, rightly or wrongly, and because it was a G1 festival race I'm going with the more optimistic interpretation for the time being. I'll be surprised if this field meets in different circumstance - and there won't be any stupid pace like AJ duped them into - some of those well beaten don't beat both LO and RP.
 
Desert Orchid said:
That was my immediate reaction to the race and I started with assuming LO ran to around 150 and looked at rating the rest accordingly. Even the sectionals pointed to a race falling apart.

However, once I explored a few more angles I could see how another interpretation could be justified, rightly or wrongly, and because it was a G1 festival race I'm going with the more optimistic interpretation for the time being. I'll be surprised if this field meets in different circumstance - and there won't be any stupid pace like AJ duped them into - some of those well beaten don't beat both LO and RP.
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Isn't an injection of pace into these races a good thing? Granted the chances of it being replicated are zilch.
 
Slim said:
Isn't an injection of pace into these races a good thing? Granted the chances of it being replicated are zilch.
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There's pace and there's pace. What Richard Johnson did on AJ the other week was just ridiculous, going off at two-mile pace. Riding like that is no better than holding one up miles too far out of its ground and not getting into the race. Johnson should have been suspended for a month minimum for not riding the horse to gain the best possible position.

It also totally killed the race as a contest since the pace in the next group was far too fast as well, as I detailed earlier on the thread. Really, only LO and RP coped with it on the day.

I'm not sure what kind of mark-ups the sectionalistas have in mind for each of the runners in the race but they will probably be huge for the ones that chased the pace, possibly big enough to take them at least alongside LO and RP. I do have a formula for the Flat on file but I don't know if it applies to jumps races. If I get some time later in the week I might see what figures it throws up.
 
Desert Orchid said:
There's pace and there's pace. What Richard Johnson did on AJ the other week was just ridiculous, going off at two-mile pace. Riding like that is no better than holding one up miles too far out of its ground and not getting into the race. Johnson should have been suspended for a month minimum for not riding the horse to gain the best possible position.

It also totally killed the race as a contest since the pace in the next group was far too fast as well, as I detailed earlier on the thread. Really, only LO and RP coped with it on the day.

I'm not sure what kind of mark-ups the sectionalistas have in mind for each of the runners in the race but they will probably be huge for the ones that chased the pace, possibly big enough to take them at least alongside LO and RP. I do have a formula for the Flat on file but I don't know if it applies to jumps races. If I get some time later in the week I might see what figures it throws up.
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This is a fine reply but given the circumstances that you detail and the likelihood of these conditions being replicated being almost nil isn't this a good enough reason to just throw out the form of the race.
 
I think Johnson must have been riding to instruction. With her imminent retirement, show Apples in her glory for a circuit.

If not it was an utterly stupid ride.
 
Ronald Pump: can I throw in a simplistic Miss Thicky theory here , GUTTED that not on the way to Aintree tomorrow btw, that he, Ronald Pump, does not stay 3m over fences. Simple as .
Does not mean he is not a good horse but.....
Personally I HATE this everything must be a 3m chaser......
( Miss Thicky , news at not enjoying the lockdown, extremely biased towards the stallion and happy to admit it)
 
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Slim said:
This is a fine reply but given the circumstances that you detail and the likelihood of these conditions being replicated being almost nil isn't this a good enough reason to just throw out the form of the race.
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Yes. That race in isolation can be wrapped in brown paper and sent to wherever.

I've told my family that if I ever win the euromillions I'd spend money on a proper psychologist as there are so many questions I want answered about why I am the way I am.

One of my faults is to look for the positive in situations and I think that's why I had further looks at the Stayers' and the Boodles. I think it's maybe so that if either LO or RP comes out and wins a nice race I can look back at the Stayers' and find evidence.

Same with people. I'm always - believe it or not - trying to find the positives in people even though my personal experience of them can be 99% depressing.

I should stress that this latter remark has nothing remotely to do with the forum. Ye're all fine fellows (except the three dozen I have on ignore.)
 
Hendo talks about how his festival horses are doing:

https://www.attheraces.com/news/2020/March/31/nicky-henderson-on-his-cheltenham-stars

I found his comment about Allart quite interesting. "Unfinished business"? I think those are grounds for adding to a tracker. Greatwood? Betfair Hdle? Coral Cup? County Hdle?

Is it possible they'll send Shiskin own the Altior route, Chantry House down the Champ route and train Allart for the Champion Hurdle?
 
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