Cheltenham Race Reviews

Desert Orchid said:
Not so sure he jumped that badly but it occurred to me later last night that, with the other prominent runners fading, he won despite going too fast up front. I thought there was a great deal to like about the way he got home.
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I know you are a good sport so I have a task for you. Hand time two horses from the last over C&D at Thurles before the festival.

Januray 19th Monkfish
February 6th Sempo
 
Slim said:
I'm sorry but I just can't have that at all. Far too many horses were out of the race after two hurdles, it was a complete mess of a race. I look forward to taking on the winner wherever it goes.
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It was, which why all the others mentioned need marking up and following, including the first and second.

Irrespective, you can back Column Of Fire blind next season, unless they feel the need to mess with him. I'd love to know early if they go chasing or not.
 
Slim said:
I know you are a good sport so I have a task for you. Hand time two horses from the last over C&D at Thurles before the festival.

Januray 19th Monkfish
February 6th Sempo
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If you give me an idea where to look I will. RTV? ATR?

I take it Monkfish was much faster?

I wouldn't take an out-of-context simple comparison too seriously. The speed they can run after the last would depend on the pace of the rest of the race.

But I'm happy to play along :)

Edit - just noticed they are actually two different days!
 
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Desert Orchid said:
If you give me an idea where to look I will. RTV? ATR?

I take it Monkfish was much faster?

I wouldn't take an out-of-context simple comparison too seriously. The speed they can run after the last would depend on the pace of the rest of the race.

But I'm happy to play along :)

Edit - just noticed they are actually two different days!
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and Monkfish had the worst of the ground...
 
Using RTV, which doesn't have decimals on the times, it's looking like Monkfish was about three seconds faster.

As I said, without any context it's largely meaningless. I have historical sectionals for the finish at Cheltenham with differential finishes - on the same day - of more than five seconds. I'll see if I have any on file, just to illustrate.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Using RTV, which doesn't have decimals on the times, it's looking like Monkfish was about three seconds faster.

As I said, without any context it's largely meaningless. I have historical sectionals for the finish at Cheltenham with differential finishes - on the same day - of more than five seconds. I'll see if I have any on file, just to illustrate.
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It was just over 3 seconds faster.
 
The only thing I can find is my comparison between the two C/D races on Betfair Hurdle day, the other one being the novices' hurdle:


<tbody>
[TD="align: center"]Sect[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Nov (s)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bfair (s)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Diff (s)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Dist (L)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Cum[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]H1-H2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]61[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]55[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]30[/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: center"]H2-H3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]13[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]13[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]30[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]H3-H4[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]18[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]17[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]35[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]H4-H5[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]21[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]40[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]H5-H6[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]59[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]57[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]10[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]H6-H7[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]21[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-5[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]H7-H8[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]13[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]13[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]H8-WP[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]21[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]24[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-15[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]30[/TD]

</tbody>

In this case the novices were three seconds faster than the big handicap from the last.

Pic D'Orhy (11-5) went up to 151 for winning.

Earlier in the afternoon, Chantry House went up to 140 but ran three seconds (about 15 lengths) faster from the last. But he was ultimately comfortably beaten by Shishkin and Aba last week.

(Fvck me, a week already!)
 
Slim said:
And I'm still not over Abacadabras getting beat, how the **** did he get beat...
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Beaten by a better horse, that still won despite zero luck in running.

If it's any consolation, I still can't suss how melon got beat. ;)
 
On gambles that went wrong. Elliott and crew must have been very confident that they had Galvin a stone in hand. Very strong punt. Bumped into one.
 
HawkWing said:
On gambles that went wrong. Elliott and crew must have been very confident that they had Galvin a stone in hand. Very strong punt. Bumped into one.
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Yes. Galvin carried some of my money in last year's Ballymore and ran better than its finishing position. It was always going to be on my radar for this year and will be for next. Expect it to do next to nothing for at least the next 10 months...
 
Desert Orchid said:
Combination of bad luck, greenness and Shishkin :)
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Someone whose opinion I respect massively (member of the league of extraordinary judges) made a good point about him. Horses like Abacadabras travel so well and do it so easy that it takes them a while to learn to battle. I think he is going to be a machine over 2m next season.
 
Somebody said something similar about another horse on TV not long ago. Makes a lot of sense. (Might have been Hendo on Chantry House after his Newbury win above.)
 
Colin Phillips said:
It would be nice to have some thoughts on plots landed and those that went wrong. I don’t watch much racing these days but I do enjoy this sort of thread.
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About The Markets

Abracadabra! Now you see the payout window, now you don't...

All the talk after the 48 declarations was about Willie Mullins' Asterion Forlonge (BSP 3.55) usurping Shishkin (BSP 10.48) as the favourite but this was not the story of the market. The evening before one firm went as far as dangling a 7/1 about Abracadabras and this was quickly taken leaving it a general 6/1 overnight. Late into the night the early punters descending onto Cheltenham where tweeting "How can Shishkin be 6.6" which caused an initial buy back but eventually his price only went one way. At 8am the Envoi Allen formline money finally showed up in the market and Abracadabras was smashed into 4.6. "He can't go on the ground", "He's a dog" those who wouldn't know a formbook if it was hopped off their head cried. At the off word was out that JP had played Chantry House (BSP 9.93) at the death which may go some way to explainingn the Shishkin weakness.

Not much for the Notebook...

It seemed that all the pre-Cheltenham chat about Notebook (BSP 4.0) being the wrong price at 3/1 had dried up, unlike the ground. The league of extraordinary judges had weighed up the ground with the much touted turnaround at the weights (no allowances for 5yo here) and had all come away with a tick marked next to Fakir D'Oudairies (BSP 4.7). The early e/w money had been for Evan William's Esport Du Large (BSP 18.18) but that was one the algorithm men could not have on the show. The winner Put The Kettle On (BSP 19.97) will not have been on many punters radar.

It's my birthday and I'll smash one if I want to!

A proper punt landed on a proper mare. Sometimes punters go round and round so much looking for one to beat a fav that they shrug their shoulders and just bet it. They very much did that here. On JP McManus' birthday The Great Man landed a great punt with the upmost of ease with Epatante (BSP 3.36) winning an easy 3l. The morning 10/3 a distant memory at the off.

Rachael Blackmore suckle feeds the field...

With punters having landed a touch in the last you would be mistaken for thinking they would play up on Benie Des Dieux (BSP 1.71) with the mare available at far bigger than the morning 8/15 on the machine near the off. The 10/3 morning push for business backfired on the off course layers with Honeysuckle (BSP 3.6) landing a tidy punt. Rachael spotted an opportunity to gain lengths on the turn in when the red sea parted and her mare was up to the task. Both a fascinating race and market.

The Elliot plot just didn't have the Aura...

The firms bet 6/1 the front two in morning with Imperial Aura (BSP 5.55) and Galvin (BSP 5.5) pulling 9l clear of the field. Galvin had been well hyped on the preview circuit and it was anything but misplaced. These were two exceptionally handicapped horses and the Elliot punters can feel aggrieved that they simply ran into one. As they were crossing the line punters were logging in to accounts to bet Simply The Bets for the Brown Advisory...

Last year horses died, this was the turn of the punters...

What in the name of God happened here? In the morning the Whatsapp messages were full of "Willie's men all on Carefully Selected", "Will take some beating", "Only needs to hunt around" but in the end he was pulled up, jumping like the proverbial snooker table. That Carefully Selected (BSP 2.12) touched 1.9x on the machine near the off said a lot. This was a colossal punt and rendered the previous weeks jockey booking gambles on Jamie Codd's Ravenhill (BSP 17) and Derek O'Connor's Forza Milan (BSP 12.02) in negative equity at the off. With Jamie Codd putting on a masterclass and DOC doing what DOC does best (closest at the finish) the algorithm traders were left be wondering where their model forgot to carry a 1...
 
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Slim said:
And I'm still not over Abacadabras getting beat, how the **** did he get beat...
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So Asterion Forlonge goes right and badly hampers Elixir and in turn Capt Guiness at the 3rd last. Mark Walsh then decides rather than hanging back and letting the Mullins nutter do the same in isolation at the 2nd last he would join upsides. If he had held back he'd have given a nice lead to Abas and that imo would have made all the difference.
 
If I'm reading the RTV schedule correctly, it looks like they're showing all of Cheltenham again all day today.

I might force myself to watch.
 
Euronymous said:
So Asterion Forlonge goes right and badly hampers Elixir and in turn Capt Guiness at the 3rd last. Mark Walsh then decides rather than hanging back and letting the Mullins nutter do the same in isolation at the 2nd last he would join upsides. If he had held back he'd have given a nice lead to Abas and that imo would have made all the difference.
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Very possible but Shish lost a fair bit of ground in that carnage. Would loved to have seen how it would have played out.
He wins the Champion next year though right!
 
Maruco said:
The Arkle for Shishkin I would think Frankel. Henderson's obvious successor to Altior.
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Yes. NdB said as much after the race. He also said he wouldn't go as far as to say Shishkin was as good as Altior but the way in which he said made it sound like he wouldn't be too far off Altior either.
 
Abac and Shinskin - assuming they both end up chasing, actually think Abac will stay hurdling now mind

Will the rivalry be more

Douvan v Sizing John

Altior v Min
 
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