Cheltenham Race Reviews

Double Handful said:
Really? If the gold cup was 2f shorter (Which the King George is) he'd have nearly won it. And he's better right handed.

Appreciate he's not obvious, but the price accounts for that. I think it's inaccurate to say he has zero Chance, as definitively as you suggest.
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Agree here. The KG market is ripe for pillage

CDO - I don't think he's all that. Race collapsed in Dec
Santini - No chance he'll go, hate's the track
Champ - Never fenced RH, could be a car crash esp the speed they go
Lostintranslation - Like Santini he won't go.
Allaho - Mullins doesn't really bother, doubtful stayer
Monalee - Never wins, 14s is awful



After that it's rag city 25s+
 
Going back to Saint Roi. Was there any talk about going over fences next season? I suspect not given his inexperience, but JP lacks in the 2 mile graded chase division. Defi and Fakir will go up in trip you'd think, leaving Le Richebourg, assuming he's back, he's still the same horse, and he's actually good enough. Definitely a bit of a vacuum at 2 miles, and if Fran is planning correctly maybe he's the one for the Arkle next year. Of course they'll have Shishkin to consider who could be a monster.

Definitely worth checking/waiting. Especially given JP already has the current Champion Hurdler Epatante who was a good winner of a poor renewal, previous Champion Hurdler Buveur D'Air presumably coming back here, and Elixir D'Ainay that was running a huge race in the Supreme before he was brought down. He also has Dame De Compagnie and Aramax although I suspect they'll be campaigned over two and half plus, but are both clearly effective at 2 miles.

Has anyone seen Saint Roi in the flesh. Is he built to go chasing?
 
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Maruco said:
Going back to Saint Roi. Was there any talk about going over fences next season? I suspect not given his inexperience, but JP lacks in the 2 mile graded chase division. Defi and Fakir will go up in trip you'd think, leaving Le Richebourg, assuming he's back, he's still the same horse, and he's actually good enough. Definitely a bit of a vacuum at 2 miles, and if Fran is planning correctly maybe he's the one for the Arkle next year. Of course they'll have Shishkin to consider who could be a monster.

Definitely worth checking/waiting. Especially given JP already has the current Champion Hurdler Epatante who was a good winner of a poor renewal, previous Champion Hurdler Buveur D'Air presumably coming back here, and Elixir D'Ainay that was running a huge race in the Supreme before he was brought down. He also has Dame De Compagnie and Aramax although I suspect they'll be campaigned over two and half plus, but are both clearly effective at 2 miles.

Has anyone seen Saint Roi in the flesh. Is he built to go chasing?
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It's been hard enough spending the last two months wondering how JP was going to deal his stack of handicap hurdlers this year. My head would hurt trying to even starting this about next season. He has loads of good horses now.
 
Maruco said:
Really sorry to hear that Double J. Temporarily or permanently?
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Temporarily, possibly permanent. I work as a chef, we’ve had literally no customers, managers had no choice but to pull the plug. Hoping to still have a job to go to.

Cause I’ve been laid off, I’ll get £145 a week for 12 weeks. Unfortunately, with my Mrs only on statuary maternity pay, we’re basically buggered. I’ll sort something out, but I’ll be studying the form for Thursles tomorrow damn hard.
 
That is very true. However.......

Saint Roi 33/1 for the Champion Hurdle would end up looking very big if he's as good as we think he is, and they intend to stay hurdling. Goschen is best price 6/1 and a talented head-banger, is likely to have a campaign on the flat meaning they would need a light campaign leaving him very inexperienced, and could easily be one of those horses that burns out quickly anyway. Abracadabras may end up being one of those horses that always finds one too good. It's been the story of his career so far. We'd also like to think that a new kid on the block will be better than Epatante. Outside of that you have Buveur D'Air surely too old and too much to prove, and a bunch of horses that have already proven to be short of what's required.

There are 15 horses ahead of Saint Roi in the Champion Hurdle market. Half of them won't run, and only three are realistic challengers. At worst I'd have him in the top three with, and the potential to be the best of them all. If you like antepost betting this far out that's good value for a horse you know stays hurdling. Even on a 50/50 chance the odds are tempting, because he's better than a 16/1 horse in that market.

Some don't like tying up money for that long, but for me it's normal. So given there is literally nothing else outside Goschen and Abracadabras I'd even consider backing for the race I've talked my self in to the bet at 33/1.
 
Double J said:
Temporarily, possibly permanent. I work as a chef, we’ve had literally no customers, managers had no choice but to pull the plug. Hoping to still have a job to go to.

Cause I’ve been laid off, I’ll get £145 a week for 12 weeks. Unfortunately, with my Mrs only on statuary maternity pay, we’re basically buggered. I’ll sort something out, but I’ll be studying the form for Thursles tomorrow damn hard.
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Sorry to hear it, and I wish you and the family well. Hopefully this won't go on too long and you'll be back at work in a few weeks.

I'm sure I speak for all of us when I say we're all feeling for you.
 
Hope you get sorted soon. All the supermarkets are desperately taking on more staff and that might include something that your skills would be an asset for such as the bakery side?
 
Maruco said:
That is very true. However.......

Saint Roi 33/1 for the Champion Hurdle would end up looking very big if he's as good as we think he is, and they intend to stay hurdling. Goschen is best price 6/1 and a talented head-banger, is likely to have a campaign on the flat meaning they would need a light campaign leaving him very inexperienced, and could easily be one of those horses that burns out quickly anyway. Abracadabras may end up being one of those horses that always finds one too good. It's been the story of his career so far. We'd also like to think that a new kid on the block will be better than Epatante. Outside of that you have Buveur D'Air surely too old and too much to prove, and a bunch of horses that have already proven to be short of what's required.

There are 15 horses ahead of Saint Roi in the Champion Hurdle market. Half of them won't run, and only three are realistic challengers. At worst I'd have him in the top three with, and the potential to be the best of them all. If you like antepost betting this far out that's good value for a horse you know stays hurdling. Even on a 50/50 chance the odds are tempting, because he's better than a 16/1 horse in that market.

Some don't like tying up money for that long, but for me it's normal. So given there is literally nothing else outside Goschen and Abracadabras I'd even consider backing for the race I've talked my self in to the bet at 33/1.
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Firstly your Abracadabras take is just wrong but I've done that to death.

Saint Roi is exceptional value at 33/1 for the Champion Hurdle. Look at likely campaigns. The mare will go to the Christmas Hurdle and BD will go to Newcastle. That leaves a lane wide open for Sain Roi to take on Abracadabras at Leopardstown or to pick up all those nice pots in Ireland along the way.
 
Maruco said:
No you miss my point. Which is that this time he runs in to Saint Roi.
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The horse is not a twicer. Find me another horse that could travel as well as he did in the Supreme. When he learns to battle he beats everything.
 
Slim said:
He is finished is a handicapper except one last go in the Greatwood. You can't waste a horse this good pissing around when you have already won a County Hurdle, especially since the 2m division is devoid of ability. There are loads of pots to be moped up with him. He is now 149 in Ireland so he can run in the Greatwood off maybe 153 and would have a favorites chance. There is almost no chance this horse gets stopped next year.
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Mullins not usually one for giving a toss about the November meeting.

More likely they get him ready for the Morgiana, to see if he's good enough. It's not like they have anything else for the 2m G1s.
 
Double J said:
Temporarily, possibly permanent. I work as a chef, we’ve had literally no customers, managers had no choice but to pull the plug. Hoping to still have a job to go to.

Cause I’ve been laid off, I’ll get £145 a week for 12 weeks. Unfortunately, with my Mrs only on statuary maternity pay, we’re basically buggered. I’ll sort something out, but I’ll be studying the form for Thursles tomorrow damn hard.
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Sorry to hear that, Double J. Best of luck to you.
 
Double Handful said:
Real Steel 33/1 and 44's on the Machine for the King George.
Have long thought he's better than his OR pre Gold cup.
He travelled like an absolute dream into the Gold cup - was going best coming to 2 out and just didn't stay the extra 2F.
He's better right handed, flatter track, shorter trip etc. If he's targeted at the KG he looks overpriced to me.
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At around the same price, Saint Calvados makes more appeal.

His sire is a very strong influence for stamina, and it would be no surprise whatsoever, if Harry Whittington has been running him over the wrong trip all this time.

Have just taken a pinch at 44.
 
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Double J said:
Temporarily, possibly permanent. I work as a chef, we’ve had literally no customers, managers had no choice but to pull the plug. Hoping to still have a job to go to.

Cause I’ve been laid off, I’ll get £145 a week for 12 weeks. Unfortunately, with my Mrs only on statuary maternity pay, we’re basically buggered. I’ll sort something out, but I’ll be studying the form for Thursles tomorrow damn hard.
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DJ, my cousin is a chef. He's been doing basically on-demand work for years now and says it's [for him at any rate] a brilliant way of working. That said, he's the same age as me (64 going on 65), single and with only himself to worry about. I'm pretty sure he said the money he makes is much higher than when he was employed. I'm not sure what the official name is for the type of work but it sounded a bit like the equivalent of permanent supply teaching only he gets to pick and choose which hotels/restaurants he works in and basically suits himself.
 
Coming back to Saint Roi, I wouldn't be in the least surprised if he's potentially a champion hurdle horse. Then again, as Maruco says, JP already has Epatante who might improve again over the next season. Then Hendo was at pains to point out that she might only have been his third string but for misfortune to others.

I wouldn't be surprised either if JP got word to Hendo that SR was his County horse and nt to bother targeting anything else seriously for the race. It also makes me wonder if the Hendo/JP mare might have won the Betfair Hurdle in which she was pulled up injured very early.

Saint Roi has been raised to 149, a decision reached jointly by the UK and Irish handicappers. Taht's 16lbs on his Irish mark but 'only' 12lbs on his County one.

Epatante went up to 162 for last week so Saint Roi would need to be a 170 horse, ie 21lbs better than he's currently rated, to beat her with the allowance BEFORE we take any further improvement from her into account.

Then there's Buveur D'Air, which Hendo seems to believe will recover fully.

Then there might be Aba, who is now rated 158 so could easily be a 168+ horse next year with normal progression.

And I'm pretty confident Aramon would have beaten SR if they'd really wanted him to, and he was giving SR 12lbs.

I wouldn't be surprised if they went chasing now with Saint Roi with a view to ending up in the race Imperial Aura won but getting there off 140 or something like that.
 
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Without wanting to **** anyone off this thread is a nice relief from the pandemic. Maybe keep this thread for racing only just for our sanity?
 
Maxbet said:
He needs deep ground over fences
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I'm not sure it's that simple at all. He ran diseased against Carefully Selected in soft ground over 3 miles. If they play it right they could get him in over fences in the high 140s.
 
Slim said:
I'm not sure it's that simple at all. He ran diseased against Carefully Selected in soft ground over 3 miles. If they play it right they could get him in over fences in the high 140s.
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I think the reason he got such a high mark in the pertemps, wasn't just the impression left from his qualifier, where he certainly would have won with a clear passage, but also the manner in which he hosed up first time in a novice chase. That must have kept the handicapper awake in the nights leading up to the weights allocation.. Not only did he look like he could have gone round again, he looked like a 5f sprinter running against 3m chasers at the end of their race. I suppose high 140's are really all they can do in light of his subsequent runs. But he made howlers against Samcro and Fakeur, and in the race against CS.
 
I think if they go down the chase route, it will be still as a novice and the National Hunt chase.... 0-0-8-6-2 (16) DI = 0.33 CD = -0.63 absolutely stays forever..German sire out of Monsun, with a Hernando Mare...Its the Hernando that will relish the squelch.
 
Frankel said:
Please elaborate?
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Simply playing along with the mad genius tag Slim so kindly conferred upon me.

Aramon was not ridden to win the County, in my opinion. Either that or Townend is a complete and utter clown of a jockey who got a possible winner well beaten. Which is more likely? Or is it a bit of both? I've detailed the ride he got elsewhere.
 
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