Cheltenham Race Reviews

granger said:
Abac and Shinskin - assuming they both end up chasing, actually think Abac will stay hurdling now mind

Will the rivalry be more

Douvan v Sizing John

Altior v Min
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I'd love the opportunity to bet Abacadabras over 2 miles over hurdles to reverse the form.
 
Desert Orchid said:
If I'm reading the RTV schedule correctly, it looks like they're showing all of Cheltenham again all day today.

I might force myself to watch.
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Have watched the majority of the races. tbh I'm not a great replay watcher as I end up watching the race the same way as I watched it first time so it just confirms my initial thoughts:

- Thosedaysaregone jockey error going fair rail in the Coral
- Recent Revelations would have gone close in the Broodles if jumping the last well
- Aramon had to switch inside Buildbeupbuttercup after the last so there is no doubt he would have finished closer if he got a clean run up the rail.
- Monkfish is an absolute monster who ran too free and hit one down the back. They were so bunched from 3 out and Monksish had entitlement to win how the race was run to that point. I also hadn't realised Sempo was bang there and eventually 6th. I think there was logic to the Thurles timing angle.
 
I've done a fairly rudimentary comparison between the Triumph and the County. I don't think Simon Rowlands published a furlong-by-furlong comparison, focusing instead on the finishing % relative to the whole race.

I have SR running the C&D 26lbs faster than BV.

Assuming Goshen would have won by 10L, SR would have been 9lbs or so faster.

They got to the first hurdle sooner in the County although that's based on the TV clock which might not have started at exactly the same time. Thereafter, I paused the recording as the lead horse was in flight, its withers directly above the hurdle. From there on, the Triumph was very fast-run and at the second-last was 8L in front (ie Goshen was). While Goshen was taking nearly ten lengths off his field from there to the last, the County field were going at pretty much the same speed and Saint Roi sped clear on the run-in.

I think Goshen would have been a very impressive winner but over a modest field while I think the County was a ridiculously hot race, some way better than even a normally hot remewal.

Time will tell, I suppose.

These are my sectional timings taken from the TV recording. Unfortunately, whichever dick in the production team was responsible for the pictures, he needs a toe up the arse because his fancy-dan idea of showing the jockey-cam image in the top left corner of the main screen meant the much-hyped on-screen clock was fuckin hidden!


<tbody>
[TD="align: center"]Sect[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Juv (s)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]County (s)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Diff (s)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Dist (L)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Cum[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]H1-H2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45.17[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]43.56[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-1.81[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-9[/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: center"]H2-H3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: center"]H3-H4[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: center"]H4-H5[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]64.14[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]64.73[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.59[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-6[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]H5-H6[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]27.09[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]27.53[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.44[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2+[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4-[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]H6-H7[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45.57[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]47.96[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2.39[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]12[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]8[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]H7-H8[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]39.49[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]39.53[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0.04[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0+[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]8[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]H8-WP[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]19.16[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]13.95[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-5.21[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]26[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-18[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]BV[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]16.80[/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-2.85[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]14+[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-6+[/TD]

</tbody>
 
Slim said:
On a flat course like Aintree I think the form would easily be reversed.
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I don’t agree it would be easy, but I do agree Abacadabras would have a chance of reversing form in this scenario (Xmas Hurdle scenario too, perhaps).

In almost every other scenario though, Shishkin beats him by a lot further than a nose.
 
Grasshopper said:
I don’t agree it would be easy, but I do agree Abacadabras would have a chance of reversing form in this scenario (Xmas Hurdle scenario too, perhaps).

In almost every other scenario though, Shishkin beats him by a lot further than a nose.
Click to expand...

A shame we won't find out. Most likely they will never meet again.
 
Shish could be a beast over fences. Aba will step forward and could clean up over hurdles. What price Aba on the day of the Champion next year. 10s could look huge!
 
Love the Albert Bartlett. The RSA next season could be cracking watch. Worth the few days for Townend.
 
Bonjers said:
This is an absolutely superb thread. Top work.
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What the forum lacks in quantity of posts it makes up for in quality of discussions. There was loads of good angled s pointed out in the run up to the festival by numerous different posters.
 
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This is why a forum should never die

Social media suits headlines, forums = discussion = learning

I'm posting here 15 years, without it, id be a far lesser man
 
Maurice, in your normal professorial fashion you have highlighted something I believed to be true, but couldn't quantify. I remember thinking on Friday night that we may have just seen another Rooster Booster saga begin to unfold.

2 Questions (nothwithstanding ownership complexities)

1. Would you back SR for next years CH 33/1?
2. (Slim) Will he instead put him away for an icy tentacle stroke at the 2023 Ladbroke Hurdle?
 
I've had so many ap bets for next year. Normally I'll have 2/3 in the book immediately after the Fest' but I think the pointlessness of studying the Guineas has sent me doo lalley

I've done:
Captain Guiness Arke 25s
Abas CH 10s
A Plus Tard QM 20s
Fury Road RSA 22s
Allaho Ryanair 16s
Paisley Park SH 10s
Minella Indo GC 16s

Also got 55 on the machine about Angel's Breath for the King George.
 
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an capall said:
Maurice, in your normal professorial fashion you have highlighted something I believed to be true, but couldn't quantify. I remember thinking on Friday night that we may have just seen another Rooster Booster saga begin to unfold.

2 Questions (nothwithstanding ownership complexities)

1. Would you back SR for next years CH 33/1?
2. (Slim) Will he instead put him away for an icy tentacle stroke at the 2023 Ladbroke Hurdle?
Click to expand...

If they Put him away he would win the County next year again off 16lbs higher. I think they will go for the Greatwood with him which is probably what you are thinking too.
 
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Euronymous said:
Also got 55 on the machine about Angel's Breath for the King George.
Click to expand...

Real Steel 33/1 and 44's on the Machine for the King George.
Have long thought he's better than his OR pre Gold cup.
He travelled like an absolute dream into the Gold cup - was going best coming to 2 out and just didn't stay the extra 2F.
He's better right handed, flatter track, shorter trip etc. If he's targeted at the KG he looks overpriced to me.
 
I'll say more later as I'm just heading out for a wee stroll down along the shore on the west coast.

If, as Slim suggests, they go to/for the Greatwood, it could easily be with a mind on getting a few pounds off it again but I imagine they'd also need to run it more frequently to manage it. I can see the UK handicapper being rather unforgiving going forward.
 
Slim said:
If they out him away he would win the County next year again off 16lbs higher. I think they will go for the Greatwood with him which is probably what you are thinking too.
Click to expand...

That's the first race I thought of as Saint Roi crossed the line. My second thought was I'll almomst certainly be backing a 'saintly' double at the November Meeting when the markets go up, because I'll also be backing Saint Sonnet for the BV Gold Cup. A mark of 147 will prove generous next season, before he goes back to graded races.
 
Euronymous said:
I've had so many ap bets for next year. Normally I'll have 2/3 in the book immediately after the Fest' but I think the pointlessness of studying the Guineas has sent me doo lalley

I've done:
Captain Guiness Arke 25s
Abas CH 10s
A Plus Tard QM 20s
Fury Road RSA 22s
Allaho Ryanair 16s
Paisley Park SH 10s
Minella Indo GC 16s

Also got 55 on the machine about Angel's Breath for the King George.
Click to expand...

I'm the same Euro. I like a few bets immediately afterwards, and across the mix they're generally profitable given you only need one or two to win for a profit. I'm currently on four of your list, plus a few others.

The one I'm not on and really like is A Plus Tard for the Queen Mum. I'll add him straight after this post. Given the 2 mile chase division is lacking any depth, and you can find reasons why the top three in the market either don't go for the race, are on the downgrade, or fragile, I'd say 20/1 ew is a great bet. Put The Kettle On also. You can argue she might go for the new Mares Chase, but I don't see it when this will cut up to 6 or 7 runners as usual, with no horse holding an outstanding claim.

At the moment at best I see those two running, plus Politologue, Chosen Mate, Mister Fisher, Sceau Royal, and whichever are fit from Chacun Pour Soi and Altior. Defi surely goes back up in trip, and probably Dynamite Dollars too. There may be a rag or two. If that's the field, even if Chacun and Altior run, the two mentioned go off at 8/1 or less. If either don't run, it's half that, and if neither show up they're first and second favourite at shortish odds.

Easy enough trading a guaranteed profit at some point in the season too.
 
double handful said:
real steel 33/1 and 44's on the machine for the king george.
Have long thought he's better than his or pre gold cup.
He travelled like an absolute dream into the gold cup - was going best coming to 2 out and just didn't stay the extra 2f.
He's better right handed, flatter track, shorter trip etc. If he's targeted at the kg he looks overpriced to me.
Click to expand...

that has ******* no chance
 
Slim said:
that has ******* no chance
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Really? If the gold cup was 2f shorter (Which the King George is) he'd have nearly won it. And he's better right handed.

Appreciate he's not obvious, but the price accounts for that. I think it's inaccurate to say he has zero Chance, as definitively as you suggest.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'll say more later as I'm just heading out for a wee stroll down along the shore on the west coast.

If, as Slim suggests, they go to/for the Greatwood, it could easily be with a mind on getting a few pounds off it again but I imagine they'd also need to run it more frequently to manage it. I can see the UK handicapper being rather unforgiving going forward.
Click to expand...

He is finished is a handicapper except one last go in the Greatwood. You can't waste a horse this good pissing around when you have already won a County Hurdle, especially since the 2m division is devoid of ability. There are loads of pots to be moped up with him. He is now 149 in Ireland so he can run in the Greatwood off maybe 153 and would have a favorites chance. There is almost no chance this horse gets stopped next year.
 
I’m not as insightful as some posters here, but I’ll watch the racing and post some reviews next week. Loads of time on my hands as I’ve been laid off work today. With 3 mouths to feed just in my income, anything posted in ‘will win’ would be great help :lol:
 
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