Cheltenham Race Reviews

I tried that years ago, Maxbet, without success. I reckon my problem is my tech. My laptop is now about 12 years old and as clapped out as Alice Plunkett.

Whenever I tried putting races up in sync one or both would buffer and throw everything out.
 
archie said:
I'd be fairly confident that Townend was riding to instructions. I wouldn't know about this season but last season the instructions were to wait and come with a long run with the intention of hitting the front over or after the last. The 2 Cheltenham runs are the only time he's run in double figure runner fields and in the Supreme he tried the inside. I'd say that that experience made them opt for the outside this time as it was the only way of being sure of a clear run at the right time ie. the start of that run.
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Mullins said the jocks all wanted to line up at the back. No surprise with Townend given previous success. Just met one chucked in.
 
Day 1 Chases

I've been looking at the times for the chases on the Tuesday.

They've thrown up something I've never come across before in all the years I've been doing this stuff.

That said, I've always worked from the Standard Times that date back to the 2000/2001 season when they were revised and before that I used the previous ones. They've been revised since but I found they threw up some weird results so I went back to the 00-01 ones.

The Arkle worked out, incredibly, 79lbs faster than the Ultima, 61lbs faster than the Nov Hcap race and 65lbs faster than the NH Chase. All four races looked strongly enough run at the time so that huge gap requires some explaining.

And right now I can't.

All I can say is that those figures are calculated via the official time comparisons with the standards as used in the Form Book.

It might take me a day or two to find the times I'm used to using and I'll post my findings.

The only thing I can think of is that the Standard times just cannot be right.
 
The Arkle was run on virgin ground, once round and they went hell to leather. The other races were visibly run with caution to the ground condition
The distances were changed too:
Ultima 3m 1/2f to 3m1f.
Nov Chs 2m 4 1/2f to 2m 4f
NH chs 4m to 3m 6f...
Standards are in infancy.
 
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Maxbet said:
The distances were changed too, Ultima 3m 1/2 f to 3m1f.
NH chs dropped in distance...standards are in infancy.
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I wondered when I saw that they had a standard time for the NH Chase over a brand new distance. I presumed it was a time extrapolated from the old 4m race time.

I 'manufacture' my own standard times where there are changes in course configuration, eg rails being dolled out. It used to take me a while to work out using first year maths what the new distance actually covered was but in recent years they've been stating exactly what the actual distance on the day was.

I used that along with the normal distances closest either side to the trip and calculated a notional time from them. It would never have been perfect but I reckoned it would have been better than just using the time from the wrong trip.

Mrs O is in self-isolation upstairs having come down with cold symptoms yesterday so I should have a bit of peace and quiet today to rummage around for my racing stuff (which I haven't used for nearly a year).

Clouds and silver linings...
 
Whilst the times are misleading I have both Put The Kettle On and Fakir D'Oudaries as very smart and the runs of both are well above average for the The Arkle. The lowest mark I can give Put The Kettle On is 165 unadjusted for the mares allowance and Fakir D'Oudaries 164. Given we have a solid number of 150's horses in behind that have been slammed by upwards of 18 lengths I'm okay with those marks.

The only horses I have ahead of both of them in the last decade are Altior, Un Des Sceaux, and Sprinter Sacre. Douvan I suspect would have been, but he didn't need to achieve much in winning his Arkle.
 
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I managed to find my standard times booklet - better organised than I'd thought - and applied the times to the first day's races.

Shishkin and Epatante match their new ratings to the pound, so I'm pleased with that. Both were genuinely true-run affairs. Honeysuckle was understandably (inferior oppo behind) a good bit slower.

The chases were much more in line with what I'd have expected. Also, the book said that there were no alterations to distances, they were run as advertised.

Taking the Arkle as a guide and applying the going allowance (suggesting very soft/heavy) paints a very different picture to the one in the Book as mentioned in the post above. Imperial Aura comes out at 153 (ie only 6lbs off PTKO at the weights carried) and Ravenhill 121.
 
Day 2 Wednesday

On published speed ratings the Boodles seemed fast-run so I used it as my starting point. The fact that Night Edition came from the rear while the others came from various positions from closer to the pace without making the running usually backs up the idea of a decent pace.

It puts Envoi Allen on a pretty high mark but points to the Coral Cup being modestly-run, which my sectionals recently also pointed to.

(I know, I know... a preposition is a word you should never end a sentence with...)

The Coral Cup was 37lbs slower than the Ballymore and 12lbs slower than the Boodles before WFA.

If the figures are accurate, it puts Envoi Allen, Shishkin and Aba within a pound of each other on high marks even for the normal high standards of their respective races.

Politologue appeared to enjoy itself up front in the Champion Chase and if the race can be a guide to the ground then Champ has posted a very impressive time in the RSA, uo there with the best I can recall. If we subscribe to the theory that the front two went too fast and died up the hill they can probably be marked up so the chances are it was a very, very good renewal. Champ is now rated 161. Were he to turn up in the Hennessy off that mark I would be very tempted to pile on.

I don't do time ratings for the X-Country races - I largely ignore them - but I do think the handicapper has gone 'way OTT with his rating of Easysland. He appears to have taken the view that Tiger Roll was 100% fit, ready and off. I'm not convinced. Not when Aintree history beckoned. He also appears to have gone with 1lb per length linked to Out Sam (OR 137 beaten 35L). That to me is illogical according to the laws of physics. A pound surely cannot impact exactly the same at 2m as at nearly 4m. (Try holding a tin of beans at a stiff arm's length for 30 seconds, then try it for a minute, then two minutes.)

In staying races in heavy ground I equate just half a pound to a length. It has worked for me for years a lot better than a pound. It brings Easyland's rating back down closer to its pre-existing one and a lot easier to explain. It just means Tiger Roll ran a couple of stone below form, which makes more sense to me than the other scenario.

But I expect I'm farting against thunder.
 
Maruco said:
Whilst the times are misleading I have both Put The Kettle On and Fakir D'Oudaries as very smart and the runs of both are well above average for the The Arkle. The lowest mark I can give Put The Kettle On is 165 unadjusted for the mares allowance and Fakir D'Oudaries 164. Given we have a solid number of 150's horses in behind that have been slammed by upwards of 18 lengths I'm okay with those marks.

The only horses I have ahead of both of them in the last decade are Altior, Un Des Sceaux, and Sprinter Sacre. Douvan I suspect would have been, but he didn't need to achieve much in winning his Arkle.
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This is an interesting take

I think it can be argued that the mare is open to progression because she is still somewhat unknown

To the eye, I didn't view it as a good Arkle

I think Henry was as surprised she won as the rest of us

Fakir looked potentially extraordinary early days out but will need that ground in future to be potentially threatening at the top level
 
Maruco said:
Whilst the times are misleading I have both Put The Kettle On and Fakir D'Oudaries as very smart and the runs of both are well above average for the The Arkle. The lowest mark I can give Put The Kettle On is 165 unadjusted for the mares allowance and Fakir D'Oudaries 164. Given we have a solid number of 150's horses in behind that have been slammed by upwards of 18 lengths I'm okay with those marks.
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I'm pretty much in the same ball park with my figures, Maruco, so the chances are we're closer to being right than wrong.
 
I think so Maurice. I'm fairly confident in the figures for both of them. I've been round them in every way I possibly can. In fact I was trying hard to find reasons to downgrade them as instinctively they felt high, probably because of my view of the race beforehand. If anything I could go a shade higher using all my normal criteria. The times and the ratings of the horses in behind back up my ratings almost as perfectly as it gets. All that said, I like it when people underestimate horses because it creates value. PTKO 20/1 Champion Chase, and Fakir D'Oudaries 33/1 Ryanair are both way too big, and I played the singles and double as soon as I finalised my figures. Of course PTKO could go for the Mares Chase and FD could go for the Champion Chase, but that wouldn't be my call so I'll back my own thoughts at those prices.

We differ slightly on the novice handicap chase. I have Imperial Aura 156 and Galvin on 152. As such I also backed Simply The Betts at 25/1 for the Ryaniar, as I think all three will progress significantly next season. There is a rock solid look to all of the form through the three of them. I expect all three to be running in the 160's next season over course and distance, and Simply The Betts is the best of the three of them. 25/1 for the Ryanair for him is just far too big.

If I follow that logic through, Saint Calvados is in the same ownership as Simply The Betts and is improving further as he's stepped up in trip. I doubt they'd aim both horses at the same race, and given I rate the Ryanair form much higher than most, I reckon 66/1 for the Gold Cup is a nice specualtive ew bet for Saint Calvados. I have him on 167 the same as the OH and I reckon he can hit the 170's as an eight year old over the Gold Cup trip next year. He only has 6-8 pounds or so to find with Al Boum Photo and Santini, and as I say watching him suggests a further step up in trip will bring out further improvement. There is something Sizing John-esque about him for me, so at 66/1 under those circumstances it's worth finding out. Certainly when ABP is 5/1 and Santini is 7/1 antepost.

I haven't had time to do the the NH Chase yet, but I'll hopefully post something later today.
 
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Brilliant stuff, Maruco. Thanks.

I'll take another look at my figures today and think about following you in.

I tend to reason very similarly to you but lack the cojones to commit to ante-post punting this far out in case connections' plans differ wildly from my own notions.

The really longshot odds you mention are tempting me though :whistle:
 
A long time between now and next March Maurice, but finding big price horses now has served me well for many years. Some don't make it, some are targeted elsewhere, and some I'm just wrong about, but you only need one or two big shorteners and it becomes very profitable.
 
granger said:
I think Henry was as surprised she won as the rest of us
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That's not the impression he gave in his pre-race interview...Even went as far as to say, the owners have come to party.

I thought all the clues were there...

Ran half a second faster the Defi at the Nov meeting, stays 2 1/2 mile, and had been put away aka, Well Chief.
 
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Maxbet said:
That's not the impression he gave in his pre-race interview...Even went as far as to say, the owners have come to party.

I thought all the clues were there...

Ran half a second faster the Defi at the Nov meeting, stays 2 1/2 mile, and had been put away aka, Well Chief.
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I don't recall seeing one person mention her before the race.
 
Maruco said:
We differ slightly on the novice handicap chase. I have Imperial Aura 156 and Galvin on 152. As such I also backed Simply The Betts at 25/1 for the Ryaniar, as I think all three will progress significantly next season. There is a rock solid look to all of the form through the three of them. I expect all three to be running in the 160's next season over course and distance, and Simply The Betts is the best of the three of them. 25/1 for the Ryanair for him is just far too big.
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We're in the same ball park with the Imperial Aura / Galvin form in terms of time ratings but I'm looking at allocating much higher form ratings. The third, Hold The Note, was there as a job horse for the people who won it with Mister Whitaker a couple of years back and who appeared to be plotting Glen Forsa for it last year only to blow his mark in the Kingmaker and see him go off at 9/2 for the Arkle.

Plenty of good judges thought Whatmore (4th) and Beakstown (5th) could win but they couldn't get close and they were clear of the sixth.

We all knew Galvin was a serious plot and a win for him would have surprised nobody.

Kim Bailey said after the race Imperial Aura was nowhere near ready on trials day but had to get his mark up. Ken Pitterson said IA didn't look right on the day. After that trials day race both KB and KP suggested strongly that we'd see a different horse at the festival.

I don't think it would be unreasonable to rate Hold The Note a winner of a decent Saturday UK handicap and rate the race around him, Whatmore and Beakstown. Had they fought out the finish of such a race we'd accept the form at face value.

I would have no qualms about expecting Imperial Aura to record a mark in the 160s in proper graded company and he's still on the up. I suspect he surprised Russell with what he found from two out and will be given much more respect if they ever meet again. I think Galvin is also a 160+ horse.
 
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He had the option of running her in the Novice Handicap Chase off 145, and she would surely have been a good thing. It doesn't take a leap of faith to think that they must have thought a fair amount of her beforehand to choose the Arkle when they already had Notebook in the race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
We're in the same ball park with the Imperial Aura / Galvin form in terms of time ratings but I'm looking at allocating much higher form ratings. The third, Hold The Note, was there as a job horse for the people who won it with Mister Whitaker a couple of years back and who appeared to be plotting Glen Forsa for it last year only to blow his mark in the Kingmaker and see him go off at 9/2 for the Arkle.

Plenty of good judges thought Whatmore (4th) and Beakstown (5th) could win but they couldn't get close and they were clear of the sixth.

We all knew Galvin was a serious plot and a win for him would have surprised nobody.

Kim Bailey said after the race Imperial Aura was nowhere near ready on trials day but had to get his mark up. Ken Pitterson said IA didn't look right on the day. After that trials day race both KB and KP suggested strongly that we'd see a different horse at the festival.

I don't think it would be unreasonable to rate Hold The Note a winner of a decent Saturday UK handicap and rate the race around him, Whatmore and Beakstown. Had they fought out the finish of such a race we'd accept the form at face value.

I would have no qualms about expecting Imperial Aura to record a mark in the 160s in proper graded company and he's still on the up. I suspect he surprised Russell with what he found from two out and will be given much more respect if they ever meet again. I think Galvin is also a 160+ horse.
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Yes I agree with every word of that. I've rated the race in the context of what happened rather than potential. I have P++ against him and Galvin, and also Simply the Betts, for all the reasons you've said. I certainly believe the form can be marked up significantly, and history will tell us the handicap marks allotted are low. All three are potential winners of next seasons Ryanair depending on how much improvement is in each of them from their novice season. I'm confident that all three will be capable of hitting mid to high 160's though. Just how high remains to be seen.

Right now the only other horse I'm interested in for the Ryanair is Fakir D'Oudaries for the reasons I've already said. Nothing else interests me at all.
 
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Maruco said:
If I follow that logic through, Saint Calvados is in the same ownership as Simply The Betts and is improving further as he's stepped up in trip. I doubt they'd aim both horses at the same race, and given I rate the Ryanair form much higher than most, I reckon 66/1 for the Gold Cup is a nice specualtive ew bet for Saint Calvados. I have him on 167 the same as the OH and I reckon he can hit the 170's as an eight year old over the Gold Cup trip next year. He only has 6-8 pounds or so to find with Al Boum Photo and Santini, and as I say watching him suggests a further step up in trip will bring out further improvement. There is something Sizing John-esque about him for me, so at 66/1 under those circumstances it's worth finding out. Certainly when ABP is 5/1 and Santini is 7/1 antepost.
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I can only assume my previous posts about the two Saints (Roi and Calvados) are having a positive effect on your decision-making, Paul. :p :cool:

Where is the 66/1 available for the Gold Cup re Calvados? I took 61 on the exchange a few days ago, and will definitely top-up each-way at this price. Also recommend you fill-up at 33/1 for the King George (Powers, BV).

Just have to hope that Whittington has the good sense to move this son of Saint Des Saints up in trip. FWIW, his breeder liked my tweet the other day, when I said much the same thing.


Edit: FWIW, I think the Arkle form is for treating with a degree of caution, in terms of how it is rated. Too many failed to give their running, imo.
 
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Re Simply The Betts:

I'm less convinced about the BAMS Plate. I don't think they went fast (but plan to do a sectional comparison later today). The overall time of the race works out anywhere between 25lbs and 34lbs slower than the Marsh and Ryanair (which come out pretty identical and very fast.)

Looking through the race, Liveloughlaugh was murdered twice and lost arguably more ground than he was beaten by; Siruh Du Luc found tons last year from two out and might have done so again had he stood up; Old Grangewood may have come from too far back off a moderate pace; Ben Dundee was badly hampered two out; Dayrann De Carjac fractured its knee; and RJ baled out off La Bague Au Roi. I reckon STB's new OR of 157 is about right. It's an 8lb improvement and if he improves another 8lb then he's in Grade 1 territory. But the likes of Champ is already better than that on my figures with just as much chance of improving again.

Still, I might venture a wee each-way double to follow you in.

Knowing my luck, they'll win and I'll die in the meantime...
 
Was available at 66's with a couple of bookies a few day ago Nick. I'll double check if still available.

Okay, it is, but just with Unibet, Next best is 50/1 with 365.

I like the King George angle and I'll definitely follow you in at 33's. Most of those currently listed won't run and he'll likely be single figures in a single figure field. That's also a useful bit of info with regards the breeder, so thanks for the heads up.
 
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