Cheltenham Race Reviews

Maruco said:
Was available at 66's with a couple of bookies a few day ago Nick. I'll double check if still available.

Okay, it is, but just with Unibet, Next best is 50/1 with 365.

I like the King George angle and I'll definitely follow you in at 33's. Most of those currently listed won't run and he'll likely be single figures in a single figure field. That's also a useful bit of info with regards the breeder, so thanks for the heads up.
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I have backed him for the KG....if it were to come up heavy, he would go off around 6/1
 
Day 3 Thursday

I have some issues with the Thursday form.

The handicapper appears to have gone pretty literally with the form lines of the placed horses in the stayers' hurdle in arriving at 161 for Lisnagar Oscar. I can't help thinking this can't be right. Between the ground, the pace and Paisley Park's not running its race, it all looks a bit iffy. A direct time comparison with Sire Du Berlais brings LO out at 150 (cf OR146 going into the race) and I reckon this is maybe closer to the correct mark for him but it comes with caveats since it means nothing else has run to form and that's something I find difficult to take at face value.

Then again, if the going allowance for SDB is correct, it means Concertista ran to a mark in the 180s so that can't be right. Using the published comparisons with standards, she comes out at 145, suggesting those standards are closer to being correct. But they still bring LO out at 150.

As for the chases on the day, I have Min and Samcro working out 34lbs faster than Simply The Betts. Using the published comparisons with standards, Min is 33lbs faster and Samcro 25lbs faster. That's a worry as far as the handicap form is concerned. Given that STB was up with the pace the whole way, as was Siruh Du Lac who exited two out when still leading but being ridden along, maybe they didn't go as fast as might have been expected. If that's the case we have to mark up Happy Diva for doing so well to come for quite far back in the early stages.

I don't think there was much pace on either in the Kim Muir as a lot of the principals were prominent throughout. With Kilfilum Cross keeping on for second, the chances are the form is ordinary.

DO'C must have been told he was on Nijinski reincarnate to have expected the horse to win from so far back. Seriously though, it looked as though he was ridden to preserve unproven stamina and there might not have been anything wrong with the ride if he had stayed. It looked to me like he emptied as soon as the jockey got serious two out.

I think the question may have been asked elsewhere: would Sire Du Berlais have won the Stayers' Hurdle? It probably all depends on Paisley Park. On the day, yes, I reckon SDB would have beaten LO. Had the real Paisley Park turned up, I couldn't see him losing as, for me, he's a 170+ horse and SDB has just been raised to 158 (I've gone a fair bit higher).

(Edit - I haven't checked the sectionals yet.)
 
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My feeling at the time was that Ronald Pump's performance would have seen him win the Pertemps and beaten Sire Du Berlais (even off top weight and 156).

Hence in this instance I would go to the graded form first and apply it to the handicap as opposed to the other way around.

Whether Sire's performance would have won that Stayers is an interesting thought though. A horse like Lisnagar Oscar winning the big one definately makes the handicapping look intriguing.

Maybe we will get to see Sire and Ronald Pump in a level weights hurdle next season. I would like to see that.
 
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Slim said:
Rather back it at 6s on the day.
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Different strokes. I’ll be in and out from 66’s all the way down to single figures. On the way down I’ll leave a portion of the bigger prices running. Hopefully I’ll take my profit early and then it’s a breeze, and I’m protected against injury or alternative targets. If I don’t fancy the bet on the day I’ll either lay the bet off or just leave a small amount just in case.

I want as many of those types of horses on side early doors. The juice in the price is what I’m looking for, so finding anything 16/1+ that’s likely to half in price or be single figures after it’s first or second run.

This year there seems to be plenty of early value if you put the work in.
 
The Stayers was run at a terrific pace as stayers are usually run slowly. They were 40L up on the Pertemps fo most of the way. At the line there's barely 2l between SDB and L Oscar. I'd say that corresponded with the time difference. I'd be inclined to Give L Oscar a pound or two for finishing so well from off the brisker pace.
 
Marb said:
My feeling at the time was that Ronald Pump's performance would have seen him win the Pertemps and beaten Sire Du Berlais (even off top weight and 156)
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Ronald should have won. He moved up to join the leaders going every bit as well, approaching the final flight the jockey steadied him up, actually dropping back a length or two and losing a lot of momentum. He gets him over the last and then sets about pulling in Oscar, closing back all of the lost deficit. I think if he'd been brave and gone for everything, he would have jumped alongside the leader and held him off up the hill.
 
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The Thursday results are skewed because The Plate and The Pertemps were strangely run races. I think Simply The Betts won with the pace being against him. His previous run at Cheltenham showed he prefers a truly run race. He had to make too much of his own running and I’m not convinced Sheehan got it right. STB was still good enough to win however. Happy Diva and Spiritofthegames are fairly easy to take a rating from over course and distance, and as I said I think you can put a p+ against the winner.

The Kim Muir was a complete muddle of a race. RIP the form up and rate horses in that race from what you’ve seen previously. The angle from that race is finding horses who remain well handicapped because they were given poor rides.

I too am struggling to rate Sire du Berlais. I’m confident he’s much better than than the 158 he’s been given and I suspect he’s a live contender for next seasons Stayers, but in terms of rating him to be good enough I can’t. I need to give both the Pertemps and the Stayers more thought. As you probably guessed I held a much higher rating than the handicapper for Lisnager Oscar so I need to spend a bit more time on that race specifically.
 
Maxbet said:
Ronald should have won. He moved up to join the leaders going every bit as well, approaching the final flight the jockey steadied him up, actually dropping back a length or two and losing a lot of momentum. He gets him over the last and then sets about pulling in Oscar, closing back all of the lost deficit. I think if he'd been brave and gone for everything, he would have jumped alongside the leader and held him off up the hill.
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Highly debatable that cost him winning.
 
Maxbet said:
Ronald should have won. He moved up to join the leaders going every bit as well, approaching the final flight the jockey steadied him up, actually dropping back a length or two and losing a lot of momentum. He gets him over the last and then sets about pulling in Oscar, closing back all of the lost deficit. I think if he'd been brave and gone for everything, he would have jumped alongside the leader and held him off up the hill.
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Well if he should have won the Stayers I am guessing he topped what Sire did in the Pertemps? Or is the fact one race is a Grade One the other a handicap misleading?

Like others I need to look at the figures again.

I am assuming Sire and Ronald improved on their official ratings somewhere between 7-12lbs a piece.

Ronald was rated several pounds higher before the meeting to start with.

Marb's rule of thumb new adjusted ratings -

Sire (162) Ronald (166)

Look about right? :)
 
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Maxbet said:
The Stayers was run at a terrific pace as stayers are usually run slowly. They were 40L up on the Pertemps fo most of the way. At the line there's barely 2l between SDB and L Oscar. I'd say that corresponded with the time difference. I'd be inclined to Give L Oscar a pound or two for finishing so well from off the brisker pace.
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Surely that points a complete pace collapse, which would in turn point to LO running its race and the others falling away after trying to go with an over-fast pace?

(I'm just about to look at the sectionals myself but I expect them to back up yours.)
 
Has anyone considered that the Stayers Hurdle was a bag of ******* shite with the favourite bombing?
 
Sectionals for the three middle-distance chases:

The Marsh is over a slightly shorter trip with one less fence so I measured them from what was the second fence in the other races.

First off, it looks like the handicap has done quite well to get from F1 to F2 only half a length slower than the Ryanair. Most of the overall deficit came about with the standing start. Thereafter it slowed right down.

By F3 [in the longer races; F2 in the Marsh], at which point we can compare reasonably closely all three races, the Marsh is marginally in front but on the long run to F4 the Ryanair pulls clear by almost 9 lengths.

It stays in front by varying amounts until peaking at 10 lengths by F8. At this point the handicap is nearly 30L back.

The gap gradually narrows overall until the Marsh comes from about five lengths down two out to go nearly three clear at the last. From the last fence to the line the Marsh went another ten lengths clear.

That is, Samcro and Melon were ten lengths faster up the hill than Min and Saint Calvados.

This really just means the Marsh was the more conservatively run, allowing them to finish more strongly.

It should be noted that the handicap almost matched the Ryanair for pace from the water jump (around halfway) all the way to the line. I would interpret this as meaning that Siruh du Lac and Simply The Betts got to dictate their own easy fractions up front in the first half of the race before winding it up from a long way out. The winner also got from the last to the line about a neck faster than Min. It would also explain why nothing was able to make much progress from the back.

The TV commentary mentioned before halfway in the handicap that they appeared not to be going too fast yet they were well strung out. Ruby Walsh came in with the comment that it had been that way since the standing start.

Only Happy Diva and Old Grangewood did significantly well in coming from the rear but the former made her ground while the pace was slowing whereas the Skelton horse probably deserves the bigger mark-up as he didn't start his move until the pace was increasing so has done very well to pass quickening horses.

One more comment about Simply The Betts. He might never get things go his way so much again. He never gave away an inch the whole way round to add to getting to sit next to a soft pace.
 
Slim said:
Has anyone considered that the Stayers Hurdle was a bag of ******* shite with the favourite bombing?
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It was my first thought on the day. I might even have said so at the time on here (not this thread, obviously).

I'm off to do those sectionals.

I suspect they will confirm what we suspect. Bag of ******* shite of a race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
It was my first thought on the day. I might even have said so at the time on here (not this thread, obviously).

I'm off to do those sectionals.

I suspect they will confirm what we suspect. Bag of ******* shite of a race.
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The idea that Ronald Pump has improved massively is a joke. If he has than the winner is Baracouda...
 
Slim said:
Has anyone considered that the Stayers Hurdle was a bag of ******* shite with the favourite bombing?
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Spot on.

It’s simply not worth the energy analysing it. Everything in the race will get steam-rollered by staying novices graduating into open company next season.
 
Grasshopper said:
Spot on.

It’s simply not worth the energy analysing it. Everything in the race will get steam-rollered by staying novices graduating into open company next season.
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Monkfish, Latest Exhibition, Fury Road and Thyme Hill.

How many of them go chasing, though?

Monkfish 100% anyway and Fury Road highly likely too. Maybe all 4 go chasing?
 
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