Cheltenham Race Reviews

Double Handful said:
Monkfish, Latest Exhibition, Fury Road and Thyme Hill.

How many of them go chasing, though?

Monkfish 100% anyway and Fury Road highly likely too. Maybe all 4 go chasing?
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I’d rather back any of the top 6 finishers in the Ballymore and Bartlett for next year’s Stayers, than any of the top six finishers from this year’s Stayers.

The race is an absolute fu*cking howler. Happens sometimes.
 
Grasshopper said:
Spot on.

It’s simply not worth the energy analysing it. Everything in the race will get steam-rollered by staying novices graduating into open company next season.
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I've spent the energy analysing it but I think it was worth it just to get a clearer idea of what happened.

Visually, the Pertemps looked a solid enough race. The pacemakers faded, the principals came from midfield and further back. That's usually a sign that the pace was strong and the fact that those ridden right out the back couldn't get into it means it wasn't too fast.

But the Stayers got to the first hurdle first, though not by much. Apples Jade was sharing the lead at this point but what the fvck then entered RJ's head. For the purposes of more meaningful comparison, I've ignored Apples completely and timed the next 'leader'.

It still makes for eye-popping reading.

The stayers put distance between their race and the Pertemps at every single flight right as far as H9 of the 12. By that point they were a good 25 lengths in front. (AJ had been much further clear at one point but was starting to come back at this stage.)

From the run to H10 to the last (H12) the Pertemps picking up as the Stayers was slowing down, by bigger and bigger margins.

And Sire Du Berlais came up the hill from the last about 13 lengths faster than Lisnagar Oscar.

The Stayers' Hurdle fell completely apart. Everything apart maybe for Bacardys, who came from stone last and probably got the most efficient ride of the lot, was slower over those last few hurdles than the slowing Lisnagar Oscar. And Barcady's appeared not to get up the hill.

It looks like the handicapper has decided that makes Bacardys a reliable marker. Had he stormed up the hill I might have sympathised but he didn't stay and probably didn't run to his OR. I can't see that anything bar the winner did.

LO was on 146 going into the race but we know he used to be better than that and had shown a glimmer of form the time before. Relative to SDB, his time rating works out at 150. At this stage I'm happy to rate him on that mark and go with the idea that everything else ran below form on account of the ridiculous pace.

Of course, what it all amounts to is...

...a total bag of ******* shite of race.
 
Slim said:
156 going in. Sire Du Berlais would smash him.
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In the Leopardstown qualifier, The Storyteller and Sire Du Berlais were both trying to get into the final. The ST managed to scrape 6th place in receipt of 8Lb from SDB who was 7L behind in 9th....This was a proper race with some well handicapped horses vying for places.

After SDB qualifies in his next outing, the handicapper raises him 2Lb. He raises TST by 5Lb for the initial run...A 7Lb swing, he beats TST by half a length in the final.

Tout Est Permis in reciept of 20Lb from TST and whom finishes 7L behind him in the qualifier, runs pound to pound to the exact same 7L in the final.

Ronald Pump gave TST 3Lb and beat him 7 lengths, (would have been more had he got a clear) He was in receipt of 5Lb from SDB, and does him by 12 Lengths.

The handicapper puts Ronald up 10Lb and the owners choose to go to the Stayers where they run to the same maths as I have given above.

All about opinions, but in mine, Ronald and Lisnagar Oscar are up there. Better ground from the January meeting saw Lisnagar Oscar improve and granted Paisley Park ran well below his best, that form wasn't a million miles away from the Jan race, if you run a line through Summerville Boy and Tobefair.
 
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Maxbet said:
All about opinions, but in mine, Ronald and Lisnagar Oscar are up there. Better ground from the January meeting saw Lisnagar Oscar improve and granted Paisley Park ran well below his best, that form wasn't a million miles away from the Jan race, if you run a line through Summerville Boy and Tobefair.
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I can accept that they are but I wouldn't be using the Stayers' Hurdle as evidence.
 
Maxbet said:
In the Leopardstown qualifier, The Storyteller and Sire Du Berlais were both trying to get into the final. The ST managed to scrape 6th place in receipt of 8Lb from SDB who was 7L behind in 9th....This was a proper race with some well handicapped horses vying for places.

After SDB qualifies in his next outing, the handicapper raises him 2Lb. He raises TST by 5Lb for the initial run...A 7Lb swing, he beats TST by half a length in the final.
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Just how much in hand did SDB have in that Warwick race. Lovely ride!
 
A. Monkfish didn’t jump great over hurdles, and may want steadier clip of NH Chase.
B. Dirty great yoke that will want extremes of trip
C. Patrick Mullins seems able to convince them to switch RSA horses into this race.
C. I reckon Five O’Clock may prove classier of the pair in the end.
 
Grasshopper said:
A. Monkfish didn’t jump great over hurdles, and may want steadier clip of NH Chase.
B. Dirty great yoke that will want extremes of trip
C. Patrick Mullins seems able to convince them to switch RSA horses into this race.
C. I reckon Five O’Clock may prove classier of the pair in the end.
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D - seeing as you refused to use it - The Big Getaway may be a better prospect than Five O'Clock
 
Slim said:
156 going in. Sire Du Berlais would smash him.
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Nonsense. Sire Du Berlais has been laid out for the Festival two years on the trot, not running great races in between. Nothing wrong with that but thats what he is. A fantastic plot horse.

Ronald Pump bar his poor chase effort has kept improving run on run in Ireland. Giving lumps of weight when finishing second to next time out winners.

A completely different profile to Sire in truth. Both top horses. I know who I would rather back in graded company next season though.
 
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Grasshopper said:
A. Monkfish didn’t jump great over hurdles, and may want steadier clip of NH Chase.
B. Dirty great yoke that will want extremes of trip
C. Patrick Mullins seems able to convince them to switch RSA horses into this race.
C. I reckon Five O’Clock may prove classier of the pair in the end.
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granger said:
D - seeing as you refused to use it - The Big Getaway may be a better prospect than Five O'Clock
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E. Mullins has already suggested RSA

F. He was bought as a gold cup horse
 
Grasshopper said:
A. Monkfish didn’t jump great over hurdles, and may want steadier clip of NH Chase.
B. Dirty great yoke that will want extremes of trip
C. Patrick Mullins seems able to convince them to switch RSA horses into this race.
C. I reckon Five O’Clock may prove classier of the pair in the end.
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Monkfish is WAY WAY WAY too good for that bag of shite of a race.
 
Day 4 Friday

I did the Triumph / County sectional comparison earlier in the thread but have now had a look at some time ratings.

If the general consensus is that the Triumph was a strongly-run race, the County was ridiculously fast.

Saint Roi emerges, on different calculations, 26/26/27lbs faster than Burning Victory, so allowing Goshen a 10L win, 9/9/10lbs faster than Goshen before WFA considerations. Those considerations would narrow the gap to a pound or two.

So, if Goshen is a 158 (new OR) 'monster', Saint Roi is arguably at least that good but was in the race off 137. That's along similar lines to the form rating I was looking at for him, based around the horses placed 3rd to 6th in the race. There's no way the handicapper would ever go that far so Saint Roi will remain well handicapped on top of being open to further improvement.

The Albert Bartlett was very slowly run by any comparison, unless you take the MP race as a guide to the going allowance along with the published times comparisons but that in turn leads to a rating of 170+ for Saint Roi! That would have won the Champion Hurdle never mind the Supreme...

The chases are always difficult to compare on the final day. The Gold Cup only has the Foxcunters to measure against as the Grand Annual is usually a mad dash all the way. Shantou Flyer was prominent the whole way in the clowns' race and rating the race via him running to his OR of 141 puts the winner on 151 on my figures. The Gold Cup was only 15lbs faster in terms of times so I'm not sure it was that strongly-run. I'll maybe look at the sections later but it's something I tend not to do due to the usual gulf in class.

On published standards, Chosen Mate was 17lbs slower than It Came To P1ss but on my own standards was 22lbs faster!
 
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Marb said:
Nonsense. Sire Du Berlais has been laid out for the Festival two years on the trot, not running great races in between. Nothing wrong with that but thats what he is. A fantastic plot horse.

Ronald Pump bar his poor chase effort has kept improving run on run in Ireland. Giving lumps of weight when finishing second to next time out winners.

A completely different profile to Sire in truth. Both top horses. I know who I would rather back in graded company next season though.
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The stayers hurdle was a bag of shite. Sire Du Berlais will have to go into graded company next year so this will be resolved next year. Until then I bored of talking about a **** horse like Ronald Pump.
 
Any further thoughts on the Bumper?

Only RPRs but the first 3 home had the following stats:
RPR for first race/RPR for Cheltenham

128/141 Ferny Hollow
129/138 Appreciate It
123/127 Queens Brook

Last year, it was
131/135 Envoi Allen
126/126 Blue Sari
111/132 Thyme Hill
113/129 Abacadabras

Has the scale been warped or were the first two very good?

Yesterday, in probably the last bumper of the season, Captain Kangaroo was given 127 for his debut win.
 
Ferny Hollow is the definition of a raw horse

I think he also benefited from the jockey booking and ride given

He could be beaten long odds on early next season in a hurdle but will be better by March
 
Fellas are really throwing their words around on here. Its nice to see.

Bag a shite the stayers eh.

We will give it another year. Sire puts in three no shows and runs in the pertemps again off 145.

Ronald on the other hand will be sweeping up grade ones by this stage.

Some guess. Others know.
 
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Marb said:
Fellas are really throwing their words around on here. Its nice to see.

Bag a shite the stayers eh.

We will give it another year. Sire puts in three no shows and runs in the pertemps again off 145.

Ronald on the other hand will be sweeping up grade ones by this stage.

Some guess. Others know.
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I collected on Sire.I said for months he was a plot. I was right. Correct me if I 'm wrong but Ronald Pump won **** all.
 
granger said:
Ferny Hollow is the definition of a raw horse

I think he also benefited from the jockey booking and ride given
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The plan connections had to hold him up clearly worked.
Does help when you have one that can actually take you in to a race!
 
Marb said:
Fellas are really throwing their words around on here. Its nice to see.

Bag a shite the stayers eh.

We will give it another year. Sire puts in three no shows and runs in the pertemps again off 145.

Ronald on the other hand will be sweeping up grade ones by this stage.

Some guess. Others know.
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I'm not clear about the point you're trying to make, Marb.

They'll probably take different paths towards different goals and will probably never meet.

What does it matter if Ronald picks up a few substandard G1s (as 90% of staying G1s are, but I'm not sure he will anyway) and SDB is plotted up for a festival handicap?

What does it matter if, this time next season, Ronald is rated 155 and SDB 145?

What is there to guess or know?

I'm really not sure what you're arguing.
 
Pretty simple stuff in reply to one of Slims earlier posts where he stated Sire would beat Ronald if they met off levels next season. Hope that clears things up.
 
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