Christmas Hurdle

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At the Start
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Harchibald declared to run in the Christmas hurdle:

1
Acambo (GER)
Timmy Murphy
2
Gwanako (FR)
R. Walsh
3
Harchibald (FR) (Tongue Strap)
P. Carberry
4
Penzance
Robert Thornton
5
Punjabi
Mick Fitzgerald
6
Straw Bear (USA)
A. P. McCoy
 
Finishing order

1
Straw Bear (USA)
A. P. McCoy
2
Harchibald (FR)
P. Carberry
3
Acambo (GER)
Timmy Murphy
4
Penzance
Robert Thornton
5
Punjabi
Mick Fitzgerald
6
Gwanako (FR)
R. Walsh

Straw bear back to full fitness to find form and come's on for the run at cheltenham beating harchibald for speed
 
Go straight to new members thread, do not pass go, do not collect £200, you will be officially welcomed !
 
The first question in any race involving Harchibald should be: what is the likely pace? However, nobody ever mentions it. For example, the current Weekender contains previews of the Christmas Hurdle on pages 3, 15, 17, 21 and 27. None of them make any reference to it.

Noel Meade is on record as saying that it doesn't matter to Harchibald whether the pace is fast or slow. I think he's simply wrong and the biggest favour he could do for this horse would be to ensure as strong a pace as possible in all his races.

So, what is the likely pace on Boxing Day? Farcically slow is an odds-on shot, for me. It makes Harchibald a dodgy 8/13 shot in my book.
 
Gus against the likes of Hardy Eustace or Brave Inca I think your right....fast pace up front is what he needs. But he will canter all over this lot and win well.
 
Originally posted by gus@Dec 23 2007, 04:52 PM
The first question in any race involving Harchibald should be: what is the likely pace?
The first question in any race involving Harchibald is "can he be arsed?"
 
Something to take note of perhaps....Harchibald is wearing a tongue strap again at Kempton after wearing one last time at Newcastle. I dont recall him wearing one before then...anyone?
 
According to the RP website, he wore one five times in 2003, but not again until he ran at Dundalk last month and Newcastle.
 
There wasn't a particularly strong gallop on that fateful day in March 2005..

Do agree though that Harchibald probably is best suited by a decent gallop..
 
I'm looking forward to watching how Punjabi gets on as I think he's got bright future ahead of him. Very hard to predict what you're going to get from Straw Bear and even if he does show his best I don't think that's good enough to beat Harchibald who should win this comfortably.
 
Punjabi got a big lead and won a G2 at Kempton earlier this year and could be in a position to get out there in front again if no one wants to go on. The horse will probably be keen to get on with it.

Harchibald's best asset is his jumping so he would best suited by a decent pace. He might be vulnerable if it was a crawl with a sprint finish
 
Might it be a good idea for mod to move the last few posts into a new "Christmas Hurdle" thread?

Anyway, I like this race and think I have found a nice angle.

I accept that, for obvious reasons, Harchibald has solid claims but I want to oppose him at the price.

Punjabi interests me greatly but only if they dawdle. He has taken to hurdles fantastically well but is flawed in that he doesn't properly stay 2m. He shaped really well in The Triumph Hurdle (he was travelling better than Katchit 3f out - watch the video if you don't believe me) but then didn't get home. It was a similar story at Aintree - he travelled and jumped well but then faded. Basically, if they had 1m4f hurdles, he'd be dynamite but 2m around Kempton is the best he can hope for.

So, If this is strongly run he will probably struggle to get home, but if they ***** about for the first 5 or 6 furlongs (and there's every chance they might) he comes right into this. I'll probably see what happens early and play in-running.

Meanwhile, Straw Bear is not out of this either. Having disappointed when 4/6F for this last year he subsequently stuffed Afsoun at Wincanton, burst a blood vessel in The Champion then ran OK in The Bula last time (considering he needed the run). He's got something to prove now and is starting to become slightly frustrating but this time last year he was an exiting prospect and can go well if he gets his act together.

Summary and Conclusions

Harchibald the most likely winner but opposable at the likely prices with Straw Bear and Punjabi (in-running, if they ***** about early).
 
Punjabi looks a place banker, Henderson has a good record in this from few runners in recent years and his horses are in good form.

Harchibald is extremely poor value seeing as the race is going to be run totally against his strengths.
 
I suspect Acambo is in here to merely give the yard a line to Osana. I'm warming to the idea that this one is the next Champion Hurdler.

I can just imagine it now.... a thread entitled something like 'Osana's Champion Hurdle Prospects'
 
Desert
Osana stole some lenghts at the start, receive weight and I have the feeling you will have to revise your rating of Katchit very soon.
 
Funnily enough Suny I was just recalling a post shortly after the Triumph when Dessie asked for a second opinion viz-a-viz the previous seasons crop. Although I had Katchit as running well above the recent averages, he was still well down on Detroit City and the class of 2006 who were in a league of their own. Given that Punjabi is the latest to be wheeled out to defend the 2007 vintage, I thought it was time to take stock to see how they have faired in their open season, and by contrast, to compare them against the 2006 crop as they stood on December 25th by way of a reference point. katchitistas may wish to reflect on some of the findings too, as uneasy lies the head that wears the crown, I'd suggest.

2006

Detroit City = 1, 1 (a Greatwood and a Bula in which Hrady Eustace was beaten)
Fair Along = 3, 1, 1 (2 grade 2 novice chases including the Henry VIII and MWDS)
Blazing Bailey = 1, 2, 4 (runner up in the Gd2 Relkeel)
Pace Shot = 1 (crappy seller at Hereford!!!)
Afsoun = 1 (Gerry Fielden listed Hurdle)
Turko = 1, 1 (Gd 2 novice chase)
Mahogany Blaze = 1, 6, 5, 11
First Row = 6, 10
Oh Cailin = 1, 1, 4, F (Irish beginners races)
Restorations = 1, 1
Linnet = 1, 1
Love Angel = 4, 1, 5 ,2, 1 (couple of all age handicaps at Fontwell)
Nightbridge = DNR
Overlut = 5, PU, 9
Kasbah Bliss = 2 (runner up in French Gd 2)
Breathing Fire = 16, 1, 7, 2, 2, 2, 2

Wins = 17
places = 8
unplaced = 18

many of the wins were against older horses in graded races, and they hadn't finished yet. DC would go on to win an Agfa, BB a Cleeve and Afsoun that spurious Champion trial at Haydock

Compare this record against 2007

2007

Katchit = 1, 3, 2 (only win was against own age group)
Liberate = 7, 2, 11, 5
Mobasher = 10, 3, 3
Punjabi = DNR
J'Y Vole = DNR
Poquelin = 3, 9, 4
Crookhaven = dead
Financial Reward = DNR
Lightening Strike = 1, 1 (including a Gd 2 novices race @ Sand, 2L to Mount Oscar)
Louanos = DNR
My Petra = DNR
Degas Art = 2, 6
Alqaab = dead
Convincing = 11
Freeze The Flame = DNR
Lord Adonis = 9
Darusso = 2, UR
Counting House = 5, 2, 1, 6 (Cl 3 Nov Hurd at Exeter)
Duty = DNR
Parrain = 1, 2, 2, 5 (been kept to own age group in chases at Autiel)
Mountain = 9
Pauillac = 1, 4 (beginners Chase at Ling, bt William Bonney)

Wins = 6
places = 10
unplaced = 16

The six wins hardly inspire confidence. Only Lightening Strike and Counting House have won a race over hurdles against older horses. 2 of the wins came against 4yo's, and 2 in chases. This might be a measure of what Punjabi is up against. He's so far trying to go where his classmates haven't yet been able to, and to do so FTO. Lightening Strike's Gd 2 win at Sandown remains the best to date (though clearly you would argue that katchits placed efforts represent the strongest form). I'm seriously struggling to believe however, that the form is going to be upheld in a Grade 1, all age race all of a sudden, against a few proven (if mercurial) performers?

Which brings me around to the horse with whom I thought I was going to have beautiful friendship!!! :laughing: I was on to Straw Bear after his first run at Leicester, and duly marked him down as a Supreme candidate. Second time out he repeated the feat at Folkestone. Despite the official going, I was content he was on Good to Soft and perhaps a bit quicker, and was happy to dismiss the mud lark over exaggerations. He carried my money at Cheltenham at a healthy price (20/1 I think), and looked every bit the winner, until bunny hopping the last (not delivered very well McCoy) and despite getting going again, Noland had pounced from the clouds and he couldn't reel him in. I was left with the consolation of having won a personal duel with an Irish contingent who thought the race was about Sweet Wakes winning distance :laughing: I knew Sweet Wake had never run fast, and felt he'd be vulnerable in a true run race. Straw Bear by contrast I knew had demonstrated the ability to hammer out the sections, and he duly went to Liverpool and put the Cheltenham bad luck story behind him in running the fastest 2 mile novice performance of the season in slaughtering the field. He was probably over the top when runner up to Ikitiaf at Punchestown off a muddling pace, and the bare result was hardly a disaster anyway.

Liverpool/ best performance = flat track
Leicester/ Folkestone = Right handed
December = Good to Soft

I put the ingredients together, and the words Christmas Hurdle 8 months time screamed at me.

And so it came to pass that he ran his worst race to date. :laughing: (God i can plot 'em up). There were some signs that all was not well going into the race though. These weren't exactly red flashing warning lights and screaming sirens, but rather guarded comments. Nick Gifford isn't minded to do hyperbole. He made similar remarks in the Bula. What he seemed to be saying was something to the effect that 'i've got him about as well as he could be expected to be under the circumstances', before going on to intimate that he'd missed a bit of work, and would probably come on for the run.

But as has been said on this thread already, he's starting to look unreliable, and there has to be a question mark as to whether he's prepared to hurt himself (not dissimilar to Harchibald of course). Gifford is adamant that he's never bled before Cheltenham, and never bled since, but it's difficult to ignore the bbv. Following such horses is usually suicide, and certainly not before they advertise their health.

My gut reaction is that Harchibald has the ability to just skip away from these, and it's difficult to erase the Fighting Fifth from ones mind. His acceleration looked effortless. Conventional wisdom is he needs a strong pace, but I'm starting to find myself questioning this? The Fighting Fifth was a moderate pace, no quicker than that. A fast race results from a sustained good pace. Such a race hurts. If Harchibald has got a tendancy to throw the towel in, then surely it's more likely to occur under these conditions, when he's asked to go a decent clip for the duration of the race distance? My best guess is he probably wants an 'inbetween pace', with a preference for a bit of clip.

Straw Bear remains the enigma to me. He's capable of winning it, if returning to his best, but just as capable of coming last. The last time Gifford made similar noises about him he bombed, before running Detroit City to 1.75L's (the last time DC ran to his form) and then going on to beat Afsoun 8L's in a Kingwell. However, he broke the blood vessel inbetween then and now, and is probably in the last chance saloon now. Can't decide.

I don't normally mind taking a chance on a win or last type if the price is right, but such is this horses history, he'll probably come second with nothing resolved. If he does bomb, then I want him to do so spectacularly and so potentially help free McCoy up for Blythe Knight in March, as I'm increasingly of the opinion that the jockey horse combo is critical to John Quins chances.

My own take on Acambo is more to do with rebuilding his confidence, rather than taking a marker against Osana, I'd have thought with the ammunition available to him, Pipe had plenty of other ways of doing this without risking his Arkle horse on a racecourse.

Heart says Straw Bear
Head says Harchibald
 
Great post Warbler, I didnt do half of your research abotu the 4yos etc but Im reading tomorrow's race exactly as you have. Straw Bear have the ability to win the race tomorrow, the worry is his inconsistency.
 
Straw Bear only has the 'ability' to win if Harchibald underperforms.

'Archie at his best would not be beaten by any of these
 
No Will, Straw Bear's inconsistency isn't his worry - it's his well documented problems! I think the horse has a good chance today if, (and it's a big if) he doesn't burst.
 
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