Funnily enough Suny I was just recalling a post shortly after the Triumph when Dessie asked for a second opinion viz-a-viz the previous seasons crop. Although I had Katchit as running well above the recent averages, he was still well down on Detroit City and the class of 2006 who were in a league of their own. Given that Punjabi is the latest to be wheeled out to defend the 2007 vintage, I thought it was time to take stock to see how they have faired in their open season, and by contrast, to compare them against the 2006 crop as they stood on December 25th by way of a reference point. katchitistas may wish to reflect on some of the findings too, as uneasy lies the head that wears the crown, I'd suggest.
2006
Detroit City = 1, 1 (a Greatwood and a Bula in which Hrady Eustace was beaten)
Fair Along = 3, 1, 1 (2 grade 2 novice chases including the Henry VIII and MWDS)
Blazing Bailey = 1, 2, 4 (runner up in the Gd2 Relkeel)
Pace Shot = 1 (crappy seller at Hereford!!!)
Afsoun = 1 (Gerry Fielden listed Hurdle)
Turko = 1, 1 (Gd 2 novice chase)
Mahogany Blaze = 1, 6, 5, 11
First Row = 6, 10
Oh Cailin = 1, 1, 4, F (Irish beginners races)
Restorations = 1, 1
Linnet = 1, 1
Love Angel = 4, 1, 5 ,2, 1 (couple of all age handicaps at Fontwell)
Nightbridge = DNR
Overlut = 5, PU, 9
Kasbah Bliss = 2 (runner up in French Gd 2)
Breathing Fire = 16, 1, 7, 2, 2, 2, 2
Wins = 17
places = 8
unplaced = 18
many of the wins were against older horses in graded races, and they hadn't finished yet. DC would go on to win an Agfa, BB a Cleeve and Afsoun that spurious Champion trial at Haydock
Compare this record against 2007
2007
Katchit = 1, 3, 2 (only win was against own age group)
Liberate = 7, 2, 11, 5
Mobasher = 10, 3, 3
Punjabi = DNR
J'Y Vole = DNR
Poquelin = 3, 9, 4
Crookhaven = dead
Financial Reward = DNR
Lightening Strike = 1, 1 (including a Gd 2 novices race @ Sand, 2L to Mount Oscar)
Louanos = DNR
My Petra = DNR
Degas Art = 2, 6
Alqaab = dead
Convincing = 11
Freeze The Flame = DNR
Lord Adonis = 9
Darusso = 2, UR
Counting House = 5, 2, 1, 6 (Cl 3 Nov Hurd at Exeter)
Duty = DNR
Parrain = 1, 2, 2, 5 (been kept to own age group in chases at Autiel)
Mountain = 9
Pauillac = 1, 4 (beginners Chase at Ling, bt William Bonney)
Wins = 6
places = 10
unplaced = 16
The six wins hardly inspire confidence. Only Lightening Strike and Counting House have won a race over hurdles against older horses. 2 of the wins came against 4yo's, and 2 in chases. This might be a measure of what Punjabi is up against. He's so far trying to go where his classmates haven't yet been able to, and to do so FTO. Lightening Strike's Gd 2 win at Sandown remains the best to date (though clearly you would argue that katchits placed efforts represent the strongest form). I'm seriously struggling to believe however, that the form is going to be upheld in a Grade 1, all age race all of a sudden, against a few proven (if mercurial) performers?
Which brings me around to the horse with whom I thought I was going to have beautiful friendship!!! :laughing: I was on to Straw Bear after his first run at Leicester, and duly marked him down as a Supreme candidate. Second time out he repeated the feat at Folkestone. Despite the official going, I was content he was on Good to Soft and perhaps a bit quicker, and was happy to dismiss the mud lark over exaggerations. He carried my money at Cheltenham at a healthy price (20/1 I think), and looked every bit the winner, until bunny hopping the last (not delivered very well McCoy) and despite getting going again, Noland had pounced from the clouds and he couldn't reel him in. I was left with the consolation of having won a personal duel with an Irish contingent who thought the race was about Sweet Wakes winning distance :laughing: I knew Sweet Wake had never run fast, and felt he'd be vulnerable in a true run race. Straw Bear by contrast I knew had demonstrated the ability to hammer out the sections, and he duly went to Liverpool and put the Cheltenham bad luck story behind him in running the fastest 2 mile novice performance of the season in slaughtering the field. He was probably over the top when runner up to Ikitiaf at Punchestown off a muddling pace, and the bare result was hardly a disaster anyway.
Liverpool/ best performance = flat track
Leicester/ Folkestone = Right handed
December = Good to Soft
I put the ingredients together, and the words Christmas Hurdle 8 months time screamed at me.
And so it came to pass that he ran his worst race to date. :laughing: (God i can plot 'em up). There were some signs that all was not well going into the race though. These weren't exactly red flashing warning lights and screaming sirens, but rather guarded comments. Nick Gifford isn't minded to do hyperbole. He made similar remarks in the Bula. What he seemed to be saying was something to the effect that 'i've got him about as well as he could be expected to be under the circumstances', before going on to intimate that he'd missed a bit of work, and would probably come on for the run.
But as has been said on this thread already, he's starting to look unreliable, and there has to be a question mark as to whether he's prepared to hurt himself (not dissimilar to Harchibald of course). Gifford is adamant that he's never bled before Cheltenham, and never bled since, but it's difficult to ignore the bbv. Following such horses is usually suicide, and certainly not before they advertise their health.
My gut reaction is that Harchibald has the ability to just skip away from these, and it's difficult to erase the Fighting Fifth from ones mind. His acceleration looked effortless. Conventional wisdom is he needs a strong pace, but I'm starting to find myself questioning this? The Fighting Fifth was a moderate pace, no quicker than that. A fast race results from a sustained good pace. Such a race hurts. If Harchibald has got a tendancy to throw the towel in, then surely it's more likely to occur under these conditions, when he's asked to go a decent clip for the duration of the race distance? My best guess is he probably wants an 'inbetween pace', with a preference for a bit of clip.
Straw Bear remains the enigma to me. He's capable of winning it, if returning to his best, but just as capable of coming last. The last time Gifford made similar noises about him he bombed, before running Detroit City to 1.75L's (the last time DC ran to his form) and then going on to beat Afsoun 8L's in a Kingwell. However, he broke the blood vessel inbetween then and now, and is probably in the last chance saloon now. Can't decide.
I don't normally mind taking a chance on a win or last type if the price is right, but such is this horses history, he'll probably come second with nothing resolved. If he does bomb, then I want him to do so spectacularly and so potentially help free McCoy up for Blythe Knight in March, as I'm increasingly of the opinion that the jockey horse combo is critical to John Quins chances.
My own take on Acambo is more to do with rebuilding his confidence, rather than taking a marker against Osana, I'd have thought with the ammunition available to him, Pipe had plenty of other ways of doing this without risking his Arkle horse on a racecourse.
Heart says Straw Bear
Head says Harchibald
