Clockwatchers' Corner

Desert Orchid said:
As mentioned on the Plate thread, I'm on Natural Scenery but have saved on Jaameh for the above reasons.

I also got tracker alerts for Wahash (Chester 2.55) and Emenem (York 3.05). I won't be 'doing' those races but stuck them on an ew double. Pure laziness but also sickness insurance!
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I've had a few flash up on my tracker today. Had a decent bet on Jaameh and I've done E/W trebles to tiny stakes for a bit of interest.

Moonraker 1:50 Newcastle, Winning Ways 3:15 Newmarket, Jaameh 3:30 Newcastle & Mont Kiara 4:50 York
 
Desert Orchid said:
I also got tracker alerts for Wahash (Chester 2.55) and Emenem (York 3.05). I won't be 'doing' those races but stuck them on an ew double. Pure laziness but also sickness insurance!
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Wahash was never put in the race and Emenem was trying but was maybe intimidated by the winning jockey's whip in the final furlong.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Wednesday

With Gunmetal taken as providing the key, Dancing Breeze (88/91) and Natavia (86/89) in the 4.45 and Middle Kingdom (99/94) and Euginio (107/102) in the 5.20 (as mentioned by Mr Frisk) have put up the best times relative to their class.
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Tracker alert for today: Euginio (San 4.00). It's only 5/2 and I haven't done the race but I'll give it a pop. I'm just concerned that since it's not been seen since the Craven meeting today might be a prep for something in the near future.
 
Strange tactical ride but did the business. Sh1te price and R4s so no big money made but another winner for the tracked horses.
 
FETHIYE BOY put up a time way above his mark at Sandown last Friday. He's back out tomorrow night in the 6:40 at Bath under a 6lb penalty in what looks to me, a weaker race than last time.
 
I went to follow you in too but saw Union Rose - which my figures say is handicapped to win better races than this - in the race so backed it instead!
 
Thanks, guys. It owed me. I'd backed it in a couple of better races than this. Got 9/1 this morning so beat the sp too.

No complaints :)
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I think we may have seen a very special horse in Harry Angel at Haydock.

The 5f race won by Priceless looked to be run largely in line with the form figures and the going allowance ties up well with the good 3yo handicap won by the Johnston horse. However, despite being just a 3yo, Harry Angel has run no less than 26lbs faster.

It would be dangerous to take that at face vale as it would mean the placed horses behind Harry Angel would also be faster than Priceless – they may well be but I think it would be dangerous to assume so at this stage – but Harry won in sensationally impressive fashion and if he’s got more to come he will be very hard to beat, certainly against his own age group.

I don’t have a time figure for Caravaggio’s reappearance run but he too was sensational at Ascot last season. These two look miles ahead of anything else on the 3yo sprinting scene.
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I didn't back anything in yesterday's race. I really wanted Harry to win but feared Ascot may have exposed him as one-dimensional.

Now that we know he can settle at pace he will be very hard to beat although my gut says Caravaggio didn't run his race. I'll need to crunch some numbers during the week.

I said after Ascot that on bare numbers the ratings weren't amounting to anything special. I think yesterday confirmed that, with Brando, Growl and Intisaab not beaten far.

Blue Point will be very interesting when he returns to the track but I reckon Limato is still 3lbs off form and Muhaarar would have had this lot for breakfast.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Now that we know he can settle at pace he will be very hard to beat although my gut says Caravaggio didn't run his race.
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I'd agree Caravaggio didn't run his race and I thought RM would have more use of him, as he's always appeared to need a stiff test at the distance. Not pocket talk either, as my sole bet in the rece was ew the winner.
Maybe they're training him for the $10m sprint at Randwick in October, which wouldn't do his stud prospects any harm at all but - imo- he'd get eaten alive by the Oz sprinters, were he to run
 
Caravaggio carried his head sideways yesterday when put under pressure.
Either he did not like the track or was feeling something or was not over the effects of a hard Ascot race.
Personally I did not like it but that is me !
Contrast that with Caspian Prince at The Curragh; fully up for a fight and when Marsha held fire when upsides he got encouragement and did her her on the line in 57.15 seconds, the way a proper sprinter should.
By NH sire Dylan Thomas to boot !
 
Calling Mr Frisk & other time analysts:

Eclipse day - I thought I was on to a fast race with the one won by Archetype. It was only 29lbs slower, before wfa considerations, than what seemed a true-run Eclipse over C&D. Then when I applied the going allowance to the 7f hcap won the 3yo Mojito, I got a ridiculously fast time rating.

How has that day's figures worked out for you?
 
8th July Haydock, closing 10f hcap (Race 4618) - I have this race as the fastest on the card relative to its class. The winner Across Dubai went up 10lbs for an easy win. The runner-up, beaten a length, only went up 4lbs. Both have gone into my tracker.
 
I agree, having backed Caravaggio for the Guineas (and I still think he'd have won it if he'd run in it) but it does make you wonder about the hype Brian Gleeson tried to create ahead of the Commonwealth Cup when he put great emphasis on Caravaggio's having clocked 45mph on the gallops.

I said at the time my understanding was that this wasn't unusual for a good horse. What speed must Brando have clocked on Saturday to have run the final three furlongs about two lengths faster than anything else? We know:
[FONT=&quot]Brando’s calculated last 3f of 33.10s (40.8 mph) is the fastest at the track in the entire Timeform Sectional Archive, and it suggests he might well have been unlucky on the day. Watch the race back, with the preceding in mind, and see if you concur.[/FONT]
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[from SR's Sectional Debrief] but I wonder what he peaked at and we know the final furlong at Newmarket is steeper uphill than at Ascot.

Where was Caravaggio's 45mph? Was he clocked at a downhill sectional at Ballydoyle?
 
Desert Orchid said:
I agree, having backed Caravaggio for the Guineas (and I still think he'd have won it if he'd run in it) but it does make you wonder about the hype Brian Gleeson tried to create ahead of the Commonwealth Cup when he put great emphasis on Caravaggio's having clocked 45mph on the gallops.

I said at the time my understanding was that this wasn't unusual for a good horse. What speed must Brando have clocked on Saturday to have run the final three furlongs about two lengths faster than anything else? We know:


[from SR's Sectional Debrief] but I wonder what he peaked at and we know the final furlong at Newmarket is steeper uphill than at Ascot.

Where was Caravaggio's 45mph? Was he clocked at a downhill sectional at Ballydoyle?
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I'd be amazed if Ascot's final furlong isn't stiffer than Newmarket, particularly the July course?
BG's probably caught up in the usual Coolmore bollox about "one of the fastest I'v ever seen" while the clock and the formbook clearly show he isn't
 
As far as I know, Ascot is generally uphill from some way out but it flattens off for the last half-furlong. Newmarket is net downhill (hence it's a faster course overall) until the last furlong which is uphill.

I'll see if I can find any topography sites.
 
Not definitive, but evidence enough:

RP standard ASCOT 5F 59SECS- 6F 72.4 difference = 13.4
NEWMARKET 5F 57.5s 6f 70.4 " =12.9
 
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Found this on twitter, can't find anything for the July Course.

Topography of straight mile at Ascot racecourse (apologies for inept labelling and unavoidably mixing imperial with metric)

DCYPByQXYAE7561.jpg





7:25 AM - 15 Jun 2017


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reet hard said:
Not definitive, but evidence enough:

RP standard ASCOT 5F 59SECS- 6F 72.4 difference = 13.4
NEWMARKET 5F 57.5s 6f 70.4 " =12.9
Click to expand...

Evidence that the final furlong at Ascot is slower, yes, but not that it is more uphill.

I'd contend that it's slower in the last furlong at Ascot because they've already been going uphill most of the way. At Newmarket they're able to build momentum on the downhill run to the final furlong so are travelling faster entering it.
 
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