Clockwatchers' Corner

Desert Orchid said:
Calling Mr Frisk & other time analysts:

Eclipse day - I thought I was on to a fast race with the one won by Archetype. It was only 29lbs slower, before wfa considerations, than what seemed a true-run Eclipse over C&D. Then when I applied the going allowance to the 7f hcap won the 3yo Mojito, I got a ridiculously fast time rating.

How has that day's figures worked out for you?
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The ground was really quick on Eclipse day. I use the Racing Post going allowance and they had it fast by 0.24 seconds per furlong. I rated Archetype running to his mark of 85 but Mojito running to 105. He's only been put up 5lbs for the win to 88, so could go in a few times more.

I've got the first 3 home in the Class 2 mile handicap running ahead of their mark's on the same card.
 
Looks like we're in broad agreement, Mr F. I've put all of the 7f race field in the tracker to see how they go, plus the first two from Archetype's race.

I didn't put the milers in as I know they're already well handicapped and will probably be restricted to the big races I already focus on.
 
DO
The only furlong-by-furlong sectionals I could find for both tracks.
Both races run on g/f ground. Make of them what you will

Ascot. 12.48 14.23 11.56 11.70 11.40 11.87 12.60; Final time 73.46 (Lethal Force, Jubilee,2013)

Newm. 16.00 14.39 10.42 10.78 10.89 11.01 12.48; Final time 69.97 (Limato, July Cup,2015)
 
MrFrisk said:
T I rated Archetype running to his mark of 85 but Mojito running to 105. He's only been put up 5lbs for the win to 88, so could go in a few times more.
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yes, the problem I have when this kind of situation arises is that the beaten horses weren't beaten at all far so if Mojito is ridiculously well handicapped so must be most of the others. It's why I entered the entire field in the tracker. I want to see how they perform in their coming runs. They might also bounce so the form needs careful reading.
 
I'm getting a G1 time for Parfait in the Silver Bunbury Cup.

Depending on which standard times I use, I’m getting him between 11lbs and 17lbs faster than Roly Poly. And he might be nowhere near the top of his curve. The second and third also go into the tracker as they bear the hallmarks of job horses turned over by a seriously under-rated rival.

I suspect I'll have to pull down all the times on the day but Parfait looks a lot better than a handicapper.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I'm getting a G1 time for Parfait in the Silver Bunbury Cup.

Depending on which standard times I use, I’m getting him between 11lbs and 17lbs faster than Roly Poly. And he might be nowhere near the top of his curve. The second and third also go into the tracker as they bear the hallmarks of job horses turned over by a seriously under-rated rival.

I suspect I'll have to pull down all the times on the day but Parfait looks a lot better than a handicapper.
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He's an intersting one, Parfait. I had him running to 113 off 85 at Newmarket in June and last weekend 114 off 100.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Mazyoun is first to test the water. Runs 5.00 Newmarket. Only 11/4 so I can let it go, especially as I also like the look of Love Dreams and they're disputing favouritism.
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The trainers thoughts on his chances. From Betfair: https://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/hugo-palmer/hugo-palmer-saturday-runners-preview-saturday-july-22-210717-750.html
17:00, Newmarket
Mazyoun

There's not much to say about Mazyoun that hasn't been said already, other than that I was heartened by way he ran on at Sandown from a poor position. I wanted him to come through between horses as he is best with cover, but James was getting a poor run through until pulling him wide. Seeing daylight wasn't ideal, but he sprouted wings and kept on all the way to the line. Despite not being entirely straightforward, he definitely deserves to win another race, and hopefully he will get the splits when needed here. The plan is to go to Goodwood after this, all being well.
 
Marble said:
Also, The Tartan Spartan looks likely to move onto better things this season having put an unlucky run behind him when scoring last week.
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This is where you heard it from, diary! Middle of page 1 on this thread. :)
 
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Marble said:
Mentioned on another thread. The Warrior trained by Amanda Perratt. Formerly with Aidan O Brien. This ran a stormer at Goodwood when not getting the clearest of runs. Also, The Tartan Spartan looks likely to move onto better things this season having put an unlucky run behind him when scoring last week.
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Thanks Marble, TTS went in the tracker & the price appeared OK last night so I had a small intererest (anyone fancy a drink in the Aftertimer's Arms later?)
 
Marble said:
Mentioned on another thread. The Warrior trained by Amanda Perratt. Formerly with Aidan O Brien. This ran a stormer at Goodwood when not getting the clearest of runs. Also, The Tartan Spartan looks likely to move onto better things this season having put an unlucky run behind him when scoring last week.
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Glad you backed it, it came in my tracker as well but I didn't look at the race so didn't do it. The original message I put up mentions The Warrior who is entered at Goodwood next week. He has good form at the track, and after a few hard races has had a break of six weeks now which he must have needed. He might be worth doing next week. As Euro said after one of his poor runs, there may be another day for him. It could Goodwood next week.
 
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Marble said:
The original message I put up mentions The Warrior who is entered at Goodwood next week. He has good form at the track, and after a few hard races has had a break of six weeks now which he must have needed. He might be worth doing next week. As Euro said after one of his poor runs, there may be another day for him
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Bump
 
Desert Orchid said:
I’ve crunched some numbers from the Chester meeting to see how they stack up and if any well-handicapped three-year-olds can be identified.

Wednesday
The times point to pretty fast ground. Two races appeal as possible indicators of the going and give the other times on the day a lot of sense. The two races are those won by El Astronaute and Russian Soul. I think the latter might have been unusually well handicapped for its class and given its age [nine] but it was arguably let in lightly relative to its all-weather rating.

The upshot is that one race stands out a mile as being faster than expectations and will hopefully throw up at least two good handicap winners. Here And Now (Becket) and Stradivarius (Gosden) had their field well strung out and their respective 7lbs and 4lbs rises arguably still leave them dangerously well in.
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Even I would have to concede that I didn't imagine we'd be looking at the subsequent winners of the Goodwood Cup and Sussex Stakes!!
 
Desert Orchid said:
Calling Mr Frisk & other time analysts:

Eclipse day - I thought I was on to a fast race with the one won by Archetype. It was only 29lbs slower, before wfa considerations, than what seemed a true-run Eclipse over C&D. Then when I applied the going allowance to the 7f hcap won the 3yo Mojito, I got a ridiculously fast time rating.

How has that day's figures worked out for you?
Click to expand...

Archetype didn't do much the other day but didn't get a great ride and/or may not have liked the ground. Seafarer did a little bit better this evening but still couldn't win.

Both this race and the 7f hcap are represented tomorrow.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Even I would have to concede that I didn't imagine we'd be looking at the subsequent winners of the Goodwood Cup and Sussex Stakes!!
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Hate to **** on your chips Dessie but as good a trainer as he is, even Beckett would struggle to get the 87 rated Here and Now to win the Sussex. It was Balding's Here Comes When that took that.

Good work spotting Stradivarius back then though.
 
Yes, I only noticed my error when Here And Now was engaged at Chester yesterday. I was hoping nobody had noticed!

To balance it out, though, I did put up Master The World ante-post at 20/1 for the big mile handicap a week or so before I went away so I was hoping for some latitude :lol:
 
Desert Orchid said:
Mojito duly followed up on Saturday. Prost (6.15 Windsor) goes to boost the form this evening.
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Good second to the hotpot. It was 3/1 when I checked the price this morning so I don't know if the 15/8 sp was due to support or the non-runner.

It's looking more and more like Mojito's race was simply the fastest among slow other races even if he's won again.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Good second to the hotpot. It was 3/1 when I checked the price this morning so I don't know if the 15/8 sp was due to support or the non-runner.

It's looking more and more like Mojito's race was simply the fastest among slow other races even if he's won again.
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Out of sheer laziness I have been using the Racing Post going corrections when compiling my ratings. After getting more and more 80 something rated horses running 100+ I decided to check the going corrections myself. As I suspected, the Racing Post one's are effing useless. The Mojito race for example. The Racing Post have the going correction at fast by 0.24 seconds per furlong. By my calculations it was fast by 0.45 seconds per furlong, so Mojito's speed figure was nowhere near what I first calculated it to be. I've gone back through my whole seasons ratings and wiped two thirds of my 'to follow' list out!
 
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