Constitution Hill

How much higher from a current rating of 140 will You Wear It Well be by the end of the season. That's something I'd like to know

She likes to be there at the front.

Be interesting to see at what point Constitution theoretically canters past her won't it...
 
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Ha ha, nice bait. My Annual's don't go back that far so don't know Cool Ground's Timeform Rating or at least the mark they gave him for the Gold Cup. Lowest since 1993:

169 Mr Mulligan
169 Best Mate (2004)
167 Kicking King
169 War of Attrition
165 Kauto Star (2007)
167 Synchronised
161 Lord Windermere
169 Sizing John and Al Boum Photo (both)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, his OR (which I think under-rates him by quite a bit) is 22lbs higher than the next (call it 15 with the 7lbs concession) but Arkle was giving all that weight to horses that nowadays would be rated 175+.
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I think you are way off the mark. Iberico Lord won the Greatwood hurdle off 126 rated 49lbs Constitution Hill's inferior

Compare that to Brasher who won the Scottish Grand National off 10st5lbs Arkle gave him 35 lbs in the Whitbread and all out beat him 5 lengths

the last winners of that race to carry that sort of weight were Joe Farrell 10.6 and taking risks 10.1



Kauto Star 193 or would have to have given both of them both 58 lbs in a handicap. Put them in a King George with him on 12st and if they were getting 6 stone they still wouldn't have got near him
They would have to have put 16stone on his back

Arkle failed to give 20 lbs to Bouna Notte

1111-11 Arkle (3lb ex) 7-12-10 P Taaffe
111111- Buona Notte 7-10-12 J Haine
1223-11 Wilmington II (6lb ex) 8-10-6 W Rees
12-0104 Flying Wild 8-10-6 T Carberry
120-331 Scottish memories 10-10-5 C Finnegan
1F/2223-0 Happy Spring 8-10-5 S Davenport
1-3F31F The O'Malley 6-10-0 P Broderick

Buona Notte would have won by 5 lengths that day had he not walked through the last fence.

They made the excuse it was soon after the Hennessy and it was too short for Arkle.....considering 2 races back he won over 2m4f that one fell on my deaf ears

Besides Buona Notte had won the Supreme went novice chasing beat Dunkirk, Won the Henry VIII chase and went on to win the 3 mile RSA at Cheltenham

Clearly he needed 3 miles too and Bob Turnell said after the race that no horse that ever lived would give weight and a beating to his horse over 3 miles.

He could have been the best horse Arkle ever faced had he not been killed in the Great Yorkshire Chase on his next outing.

Not saying he'd have beaten Arkle but there's no way he'd have given him 10 lbs and beat him IMO so either he was a better horse than Kauto Star or Arkle's 212 is straight out of the Beano.

Arkle was brilliant no question but it's fairy story we all love fairy stories....In reality he was perhaps 5 lengths better than Kauto Star.

Mill House lets not forget was never the same again after he injured his back.......17 wins for 34 tells us that. So Arkle had very little opposition that weren't slow old fashioned chasers
 
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You're taking me too seriously, Tanlic. I wasn't trying to be categorical about anything.

You're right, though. Joe Farrell won the SGN off 135 and KS's peak official rating was 193. but in reality they'd never have met in a race. If KS had been declared for a fictional SGN off 12.0 JF would have been 30lbs out of the weights.

Dessie and a few others down the years have had really high ORs. But were they ever 35lbs better than the next best? That's what Arkle was [on TF ratings]. That's why they had to frame two handicaps, one if he ran, one if he didn't with the second best horse on top weight and the rest in order.

Whether the TF ratings are accurate is another matter but that's how the situation was at the time.
 
Plenty entries for the Fighting Fifth

Hopefully the top 6 stand their ground.

As for the rest they should take the day off and head to Blackpool beach where they belong.

If my trainer wasted my money and entered a sub 140 rated horse I owned I'd fire him on the spot.

Ian Jardine for example Voix De Reve rated 54lbs below CH and last of 9 in a dog race at Musselburgh...surely the owners must have twisted his arm he can't be that stupid?
 
Desert Orchid said:
You're taking me too seriously, Tanlic. I wasn't trying to be categorical about anything.

You're right, though. Joe Farrell won the SGN off 135 and KS's peak official rating was 193. but in reality they'd never have met in a race. If KS had been declared for a fictional SGN off 12.0 JF would have been 30lbs out of the weights.

Dessie and a few others down the years have had really high ORs. But were they ever 35lbs better than the next best? That's what Arkle was [on TF ratings]. That's why they had to frame two handicaps, one if he ran, one if he didn't with the second best horse on top weight and the rest in order.

Whether the TF ratings are accurate is another matter but that's how the situation was at the time.
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Will be interesting if Shishkin runs in the H'Cap on Saturday. Surely not?

I've always maintained it's easier to give away weight to slow horses tan to beat good horses by 20+ lengths of levels

GA Law was once thought to be bordering on top class but hasn't shown anything of late but as for the rest I doubt if they would blow wind up Shishkins backside
 
Tanlic said:
Plenty entries for the Fighting Fifth

Hopefully the top 6 stand their ground.

As for the rest they should take the day off and head to Blackpool beach where they belong.

If my trainer wasted my money and entered a sub 140 rated horse I owned I'd fire him on the spot.

Ian Jardine for example Voix De Reve rated 54lbs below CH and last of 9 in a dog race at Musselburgh...surely the owners must have twisted his arm he can't be that stupid?
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Well Voix De Reve was in the line u and quoted at 100/1 but I guess they seen some sense and pulled him out.

Would be interesting to know how much it cost to enter the Fighting Fifth if anyone knows. ?

He picked up £6,095 last year finishing 4th a neck ahead of Tommy's Oscar.

By the time you pay travel, jockeys and trainers cut give the lads in the yard the traditional bung usually when you have a winner or placed in a graded race you can't possibly have much left ?????
v
 
Tanlic said:
Well Voix De Reve was in the line u and quoted at 100/1 but I guess they seen some sense and pulled him out.

Would be interesting to know how much it cost to enter the Fighting Fifth if anyone knows. ?

He picked up £6,095 last year finishing 4th a neck ahead of Tommy's Oscar.

By the time you pay travel, jockeys and trainers cut give the lads in the yard the traditional bung usually when you have a winner or placed in a graded race you can't possibly have much left ?????
v
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I have no idea but I imagine the cost of entry and the 'perks' that come with it would be less than paying your way in and buying your own hospitality (ie everybody connected with the horse) on the day? (No idea, just imagining?)
 
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Tanlic said:
Would be interesting to know how much it cost to enter the Fighting Fifth if anyone knows. ?

He picked up £6,095 last year finishing 4th a neck ahead of Tommy's Oscar.

By the time you pay travel, jockeys and trainers cut give the lads in the yard the traditional bung usually when you have a winner or placed in a graded race you can't possibly have much left ?????
v
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AFAIAA £140 to enter - £3,069 5th place c122/1 for the gamble.
 
Tanlic said:
Well Voix De Reve was in the line u and quoted at 100/1 but I guess they seen some sense and pulled him out.

Would be interesting to know how much it cost to enter the Fighting Fifth if anyone knows. ?

He picked up £6,095 last year finishing 4th a neck ahead of Tommy's Oscar.

By the time you pay travel, jockeys and trainers cut give the lads in the yard the traditional bung usually when you have a winner or placed in a graded race you can't possibly have much left ?????
v
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From what I've seen he was forced out due to his rating.
 
Shishkin runs which will be very interesting......be almost like we were back in the 60's :lol:

Would a have been something else to see Kauto Star taking on the likes of Hennessy winner Carruthers or Cheltenham Gold Cup specialist the Giant Bolster in a handicap
He would have to have given them upwards of 30 lbs and if he had beat them the Timeform rating of old would have looked very silly.

If he doesn't hang like a gate, stand there staring into space or miss one out he should win........can't wait

The weather is a huge worry and there's no way Nicky will risk Constitution Hill if there's a hint of frost on the ground and that could apply to Shishkin too:(
 
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Tanlic said:
Shishkin runs which will be very interesting......be almost like we were back in the 60's :lol:

Would a have been something else to see Kauto Star taking on the likes of Hennessy winner Carruthers or Cheltenham Gold Cup specialist the Giant Bolster in a handicap
He would have to have given them upwards of 30 lbs and if he had beat them the Timeform rating of old would have looked very silly.

If he doesn't hang like a gate, stand there staring into space or miss one out he should win........can't wait

The weather is a huge worry and there's no way Nicky will risk Constitution Hill if there's a hint of frost on the ground and that could apply to Shishkin too:(
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Kauto Star gave 9lbs and a 21L hard-held, beating to the 158-rated Armaturk in the Old Roan (limited handicap), in his first chase outing outside novice company.

Delighted to hear that Shishkin will take his chance. Really hope the meeting beats the weather.....and that the dodgy fu*cker jumps off with them!
 
Grasshopper said:
Kauto Star gave 9lbs and a 21L hard-held, beating to the 158-rated Armaturk in the Old Roan (limited handicap), in his first chase outing outside novice company.
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This where handicapping makes no sense. Ok it was limited but Armaturk 158 beat the 3rd Inca Trail by 8 lengths who was running off 147.
His real mark was 132 so you would expect he'd go up a few pounds...nope he dropped him to 129.

Kauto was given 167 going into the race.....add 9lbs plus 21 easy lengths you get a performance worth 196

The handicapper put him up the normal 6lbs he does with almost every grade 2 winner

He then beats Beef of Salmon, who lowered the colours of 3 Gold Cup winners by 17th lengths, Kauto winning without coming off the bridle and he puts him up 3lbs.:lol:

In the 60's the handicapper would probably had him up to 200 by then such was the difference in thinking.

I am probably the dumbest when it comes to handicapping because quite frankly I don't know where the hell he gets his ideas from.

I pretty much have ignored him since he gave Dream Ahead the same rating as Frankel and when I asked Paul Struthers how they came to that conclusion
he came up with some piece of form in France where Dream Ahead had beaten a group 2 and group 3 winners into 4th and 3rd.

That left me scratching my head and when in the very next race Dream Ahead won they had his 5 lbs clear of Frankel

I couldn't stop laughing thinking what an idiot the handicapper was and I have never paid much attention to what he says every since.

Frankel won the Dewhurst and Dream Ahead trailed in 6th and Frankel gave him another thrashing in the St James palace Stakes.

No doubt igoring the handicapper has cost me more than a few times but such is life
 
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Tanlic said:
This where handicapping makes no sense. Ok it was limited but Armaturk 158 beat the 3rd Inca Trail by 8 lengths who was running off 147.
His real mark was 132 so you would expect he'd go up a few pounds...nope he dropped him to 129.

Kauto was given 167 going into the race.....add 9lbs plus 21 easy lengths you get a performance worth 196

The handicapper put him up the normal 6lbs he does with almost every grade 2 winner
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That's not how they work, though, Tanlic.

Inca Trail was listed in the RP results as being 18lbs OH on 147 (the 10-4 that day) so his mark was 129 going into it.

The handicapper has to accept it was entitled to be outclassed and it ran in rear before picking up the scraps late on. He is entitled to think the horse was run to gain the best possible position and run to its mark of 129.

At 2m4f the 29 lengths equate to around 25lbs, plus the 20lbs conceded, so he's looking at 129+25+20=174. Given the ease of victory I would have to agree the new mark of 173 was very lenient.

Having read through a number of the handicappers' blogs over the years in which they set out their thinking - plenty of which I don't agree with - there's a chance he maybe felt other lines with Inca Trail gave him reason to be cautious but very often in the blogs they will openly say they might be under-rating the form.

I threw out all my old racing books, including the form books with all my hand-written ratings annotations, when I moved house two years ago so don't know what my figure for KS that day was but it was likely to be some way north of 180.
 
Reckon there's good chance Newcastle will be close to frozen off Saturday. Slightest doubt would see both Hendo stars withdrawn,imo.
 
Desert Orchid said:
That's not how they work, though, Tanlic.

Inca Trail was listed in the RP results as being 18lbs OH on 147 (the 10-4 that day) so his mark was 129 going into it.

The handicapper has to accept it was entitled to be outclassed and it ran in rear before picking up the scraps late on. He is entitled to think the horse was run to gain the best possible position and run to its mark of 129.

At 2m4f the 29 lengths equate to around 25lbs, plus the 20lbs conceded, so he's looking at 129+25+20=174. Given the ease of victory I would have to agree the new mark of 173 was very lenient.

Having read through a number of the handicappers' blogs over the years in which they set out their thinking - plenty of which I don't agree with - there's a chance he maybe felt other lines with Inca Trail gave him reason to be cautious but very often in the blogs they will openly say they might be under-rating the form.

I threw out all my old racing books, including the form books with all my hand-written ratings annotations, when I moved house two years ago so don't know what my figure for KS that day was but it was likely to be some way north of 180.
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One that got me was Beef or Salmon. He turned over Kicking King and Best Mate............then War of Attrition wins the Gold Cup and in the race before The Betfair Chase that same year Beed or Salmon take a 3rd Gold Cup winners scalp. He goes into the Betfair at the top of his game and Kauto Star absolutely hammers him winning by 17 lengths without coming off the bit The H'capper put him up 3lbs. Kauto then kicks the 2 miles Champion Chaser into touch and and the h'capper DROPS him 3 lbs for his efforts DUH! Back at 173 he goes to Kempton and wins the King George doing handstands with AP saying not even Pegausus could have beaten him that day.......the h'capper ups him 4 lbs. IT is little wonder no horse will ever challenge Arkle's 212 the way things have changed
 
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