Coral Eclipse

I know I'm probably mad and it wouldn't have been the best renewal of the Edward VII but I'm liking Campanologist more and more, I think he can win tomorrow.
 
Galileo said:
Final declarations...

Literato (FR)Darryll Holland
Maraahel (IRE) (Visor)R. Hills
Mount NelsonJ. Murtagh
Multidimensional (IRE) T. P. Queally
Phoenix Tower (USA) Ted Durcan
Pipedreamer Jimmy Fortune
Rob Roy (USA) Ryan Moore
Stotsfold Adam Kirby
Campanologist (USA)L. Dettori
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Looks no better than G2.
 
Shadow Leader said:
I know I'm probably mad and it wouldn't have been the best renewal of the Edward VII but I'm liking Campanologist more and more, I think he can win tomorrow.
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Agree with you. I think this horse has been underrated. aside from Phoenix Tower, he's probably the only one still improving..
 
What's this I read about Rob Roy beating Papal Bull on the gallops (admittedly over 7) Mr Beek?
 
You wouldn't want to back Rob Roy on fast ground surely - he's a better animal with a bit of give and would possibly have interested me if the predicted heavy rain had materialised.
 
Between the front two in the betting for me. Campanologist looks goodish on paper but his run at Ascot has to be taken in the context that a) the best horse in the race probably finished second at Ascot b) he was running against the likes of Leger horses at Ascot and now back to 10 furlongs. No thanks.
 
Going entirely on his post-race interview after his last winner, Frankie does seem very confident about him.
 
How feckin depressing is this flat season. Even when he has a horse that hasn`t the form to win a contest and is shocking value AOB manages to nick one. I`m on Youmzain at 20s for the KG and I can`t say I`m confident even though he has the best form by far over the trip.
 
Of course you know what would happen if you started backing him blindly Euro? Stable virus!
 
Euronymous said:
How feckin depressing is this flat season. Even when he has a horse that hasn`t the form to win a contest and is shocking value AOB manages to nick one. I`m on Youmzain at 20s for the KG and I can`t say I`m confident even though he has the best form by far over the trip.
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Past form is one factor in establishing a horse's chances. If you are getting it wrong consistently then you are either overplaying the value of that past form or underplaying one of the others.
 
Great finish, always looked like he was going to get up. Thought the winner (Mount Nelson) was feeling the ground all the way up the straight..head held high and alot of Rock Of Gibraltars handle a slight ease and he has a big round action.
 
I think that was a very cool ride by Johnny, and judged the pace brilliantly. The stable have always thought a lot of the horse so I don't think it was a surprise that he won, also the only Grp 1 winner in the field.

PS Gal, think you are right he looked a little uncomfortable but showed guts to keep going.
 
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betsmate said:
Past form is one factor in establishing a horse's chances. If you are getting it wrong consistently then you are either overplaying the value of that past form or underplaying one of the others.
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I didn`t have a bet today, but amongst the principals the winner was the worst value in the race based on the fact that he had hardly any worthwhile form over 10F.

Youmzain should be favourite for the King George and i have an immense value wager but i fear the mug punters (who have had an awesome day today given the result of the big race at Haydock as well) may collect on O`Brien`s horse simply because everything seems to be going their way this year.
 
Euronymous said:
I didn`t have a bet today, but amongst the principals the winner was the best value in the race based on the fact that O'Brien's string looks top class, Murtagh is on top form, between them they are hoovering up the Group 1s and this was their only representative.
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I am not saying that is right, because it ignores the wider context of all of the factors that go into establishing value. But the same applies to your original posting.
 
Name me some factors then. I suppose

The stable have always thought a lot of the horse


will be one of them (can`t find the quote tags)
 
Euronymous said:
I didn`t have a bet today, but amongst the principals the winner was the worst value in the race based on the fact that he had hardly any worthwhile form over 10F.

Youmzain should be favourite for the King George and i have an immense value wager but i fear the mug punters (who have had an awesome day today given the result of the big race at Haydock as well) may collect on O`Brien`s horse simply because everything seems to be going their way this year.
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He was not value in your opinion Euro. The horse had only 3 runs before today in his last 2 seasons..and just 5 runs in total. On form he had to find something but equally he was the only Group1 winner in the race, touted as the Ballydoyle number 1 for the Guineas and Derby last year before injury struck, deemed good enough by Coolmore to keep him in training as a 4 year old, showed improved form with each of his runs this season looking unlucky last time out and stepping up to a trip that was bred to suit. The horse was 7/2 (9/2 at one stage on betfair) in a weakish Group 1 and he was the sole runner from a stable that could have run any other of the stable superstars.

Again you suggest Youmzain should be favourite for the King George despite the fact the current favourite Duke Of Marmalade is odds on for the race. Duke Of Marmalade would blow the Channon horse away at 10 furlongs and if he get the 12 furlong trip he will do the same in the King George. I presume you will be laying DOM all day at an odds on price.
 
George Washington, Oratorio, Powerscourt, Hawk Wing and Giants Causeway. The trainer clearly takes this race very seriously.

And if there is one trainer who today who can claim to be in the position to know the ability of their horses at home then it is the one with all the best yardsticks. Duke of Marmalade for example?
 
Galileo said:
The horse was 7/2 (9/2 at one stage on betfair) in a weakish Group 1 and he was the sole runner from a stable that could have run any other of the stable superstars.

Again you suggest Youmzain should be favourite for the King George despite the fact the current favourite Duke Of Marmalade is odds on for the race. Duke Of Marmalade would blow the Channon horse away at 10 furlongs and if he get the 12 furlong trip he will do the same in the King George. I presume you will be laying DOM all day at an odds on price.
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9/2? I have been at work today and the price I saw was 3.95 half an hour or so before the race. 9/2 was a fair price.

On your latter point for sure DoM would beat Youmzain over 10F, just like your namesake handily beat Fantastic Light over 12f. But we all know when the distance favoured FL who the winner was. Youmzain is no more than a couple of pounds behind DoM and the latter will have to thrive at the trip nevermind get it. I won`t be laying anything in the race, my position means I don`t have to - In fact if the race cuts up as bad as it may do I will probably end up backing the favourite as he is the only danger
 
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Euronymous said:
How feckin depressing is this flat season. Even when he has a horse that hasn`t the form to win a contest and is shocking value AOB manages to nick one.
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On the other hand, if you had taken the view that there wasn't a lot between the front two on an (admittedly rather tenuous) line through Cesare, Mount Nelson was the more unexposed of the pair and could be expected to improve stepping up to 10 furlongs, 7/2 probably would have been a pretty fair price.
 
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